Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

A Simpler and More Accurate AUTO-HDS Framework for Clustering and Visualization of Biological Data

In [1], the authors proposed a framework for automated clustering and visualization of biological data sets named AUTO-HDS. This letter is intended to complement that framework by showing that it is possible to get rid of a user-defined parameter in a way that the clustering stage can be implemented more accurately while having reduced computational complexity

Estimativa de densidade amostral para elaboração de mapas de produtividade

Yield mapping represents the spatial variability concerning the features of a productive area and allows intervening on the next year production, for example, on a site-specific input application. The trial aimed at verifying the influence of a sampling density and the type of interpolator on yield mapping precision to be produced by a manual sampling of grains. This solution is usually adopted when a combine with yield monitor can not be used. An yield map was developed using data obtained from a combine equipped with yield monitor during corn harvesting. From this map, 84 sample grids were established and through three interpolators: inverse of square distance, inverse of distance and ordinary kriging, 252 yield maps were created. Then they were compared with the original one using the coefficient of relative deviation (CRD) and the kappa index. The loss regarding yield mapping information increased as the sampling density decreased. Besides, it was also dependent on the interpolation method used. A multiple regression model was adjusted to the variable CRD, according to the following variables: spatial variability index and sampling density. This model aimed at aiding the farmer to define the sampling density, thus, allowing to obtain the manual yield mapping, during eventual problems in the yield monitor.

Análise de vizinhança: uma nova abordagem para avaliar a rede proposicional de mapas conceituais*

A análise detalhada de Mapas Conceituais (MCs) pode revelar informações latentes que não são percebidas a partir da mera leitura do seu conjunto de proposições. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo propor a Análise de Vizinhança (AViz) como uma forma inovadora de avaliar os MCs obtidos em sala de aula. A seleção de um Conceito Obrigatório (CO) permite ao professor verificar como os alunos o relacionam com outros conceitos, os quais são classificados como Conceitos Vizinhos (CVs). As proposições estabelecidas entre o CO e os CVs são suficientes para indicar o nível de compreensão do aluno sobre o tema mapeado. MCs (n = 69) sobre mudanças climáticas formam o primeiro conjunto de dados empíricos que ratifica o potencial da AViz. O CO selecionado foi dispersão, a fim de avaliar se os alunos conseguem relacionar esse fenômeno físico com o caráter global desse problema ambiental. Os padrães identificados a partir da AViz sugerem que, apesar de serem submetidos a uma mesma sequência didática, nem todos os alunos conseguiram utilizar o CO de forma adequada. Isso pode ser explicado a partir da Teoria da Aprendizagem Significativa de David Ausubel, que destaca o papel fundamental dos conhecimentos prévios no processo de assimilação de novas informações.

Coralistas amadores: auto-imagem, dificuldades e sintomas na voz cantada

Purpose: to evaluate vocal self-perception, difficulties and presence of negative symptoms after singing of amateur choir singers of different vocal classifications, age and experience. Method: one hundred and twenty five singers answered a questionnaire containing identification data, information about self-perception of the singing voice, difficulties with singing and negative symptoms after singing. Results: the comparison considering vocal classification evidenced greater difficulties with high notes for altos and basses, greater difficulty regarding the transition to high notes for basses and greater vocal fatigue for altos. Comparing the singers by age, both adults and young adults referred more breathiness than the elderly. The adults referred better vocal intensity than the young adults. The young adults referred better timbre than adults. Regarding the experience, the less experienced singers reported self-perception of hoarseness and presence of hoarseness after singing in greater number than the experienced singers. Conclusion: the difficulties with singing are connected to the vocal classification and do not depend on age or experience. Vocal symptoms are related to the vocal classification and to the experience with singing. Negative self-perception is also related the vocal classification and to the experience with singing, and positive self-perception was more reported by experienced singers.

Mapas de dor corporal aprimoram os relatos das queixas dolorosas em pacientes com dor orofacial

JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: Identificar as queixas dolorosas dos pacientes é essencial para determinar diagnósticos e intervenções terapêuticas adequadas em dor orofacial (DOF). Assim, o objetivo deste estudo foi verificar a frequência das queixas de dor relatadas comparando-as àquelas marcadas pelos pacientes em mapas de dor. MÉTODO: Os dados foram coletados dos prontuários de 532 pacientes da Clínica de Dor Orofacial da Faculdade de Odontologia de Araraquara. Os indivíduos responderam a um questionário informando suas queixas de dor e completaram um mapa corporal indicando as áreas dolorosas. A frequência dos relatos foi comparada à frequência dos locais identificados nos mapas. Foram consideradas nove regiões anatômicas: cabeça, face, pescoço, ombros, braços, tórax, abdômen, costas e pernas. Também foram calculados sensibilidade, especificidade e valores kappa comparando os relatos de dor aos mapas, os últimos considerados padrão-ouro. RESULTADOS: A média etária da amostra foi de 33,5 ± 13,8 anos, 33,9 ± 13,9 anos para as mulheres e 31,7 ± 13,1 anos para os homens. Foi observada maior prevalência de dor entre as mulheres. Em ambos os gêneros, as regiões com mais queixas de dor estavam localizadas na parte superior do corpo e uma diferença significativa entre os relatos de dor e os desenhos de dor foi observada para as regiões abaixo do pescoço. Os mapas de dor corporal demonstraram superioridade sobre os relatos de dor na identificação das queixas dolorosas durante a anamnese. CONCLUSÃO: O relato da queixa principal não foi um método eficiente para conhecer todas as queixas dolorosas, pois os mapas corporais evidenciaram a presença de dores adicionais em pacientes com DOF.