Pollen-based reconstructions of Japanese biomes at 0, 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp

A biomization method, which objectively assigns individual pollen assemblages to biomes ( Prentice et al., 1996 ), was tested using modern pollen data from Japan and applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp Biomization started with the assignment of 135 pollen taxa to plant functional types (PFTs), and nine possible biomes were defined by specific combinations of PFTs. Biomes were correctly assigned to 54% of the 94 modern sites. Incorrect assignments occur near the altitudinal limits of individual biomes, where pollen transport from lower altitudes blurs the local pollen signals or continuous changes in species composition characterizes the range limits of biomes. As a result, the reconstructed changes in the altitudinal limits of biomes at 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp are likely to be conservative estimates of the actual changes. The biome distribution at 6000 14C yr bp was rather similar to today, suggesting that changes in the bioclimate of Japan have been small since the mid-Holocene. At 18,000 14C yr bp the Japanese lowlands were covered by taiga and cool mixed forests. The southward expansion of these forests and the absence of broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forests reflect a pronounced year-round cooling.

Survival analysis statistics applied to threshold data obtained from the ascending forced-choice method of limits

Sensory thresholds are often collected through ascending forced-choice methods. Group thresholds are important for comparing stimuli or populations; yet, the method has two problems. An individual may correctly guess the correct answer at any concentration step and might detect correctly at low concentrations but become adapted or fatigued at higher concentrations. The survival analysis method deals with both issues. Individual sequences of incorrect and correct answers are adjusted, taking into account the group performance at each concentration. The technique reduces the chance probability where there are consecutive correct answers. Adjusted sequences are submitted to survival analysis to determine group thresholds. The technique was applied to an aroma threshold and a taste threshold study. It resulted in group thresholds similar to ASTM or logarithmic regression procedures. Significant differences in taste thresholds between younger and older adults were determined. The approach provides a more robust technique over previous estimation methods.

Detection of lower tropospheric responses to solar energetic particles at midlatitudes

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) occasionally contribute additional atmospheric ionization beyond that arising from the usual galactic cosmic ray background. During an SEP event associated with a solar flare on April 11, 2013, the vertical ionization rate profile obtained using a balloon-borne detector showed enhanced ionization with a 26% increase at 20 km, over Reading, United Kingdom. Fluctuations in atmospheric electrical parameters were also detected at the surface, beneath the balloon’s trajectory. As no coincident changes in geomagnetism occurred, the electrical fluctuations are very likely to be associated with increased ionization, as observed by the balloon measurements. The lack of response of surface neutron monitors during this event indicates that energetic particles that are not detected at the surface by neutron monitors can nevertheless enter and influence the atmosphere’s weather-generating regions.

The timing and causes of the Neolithic elm decline: new evidence from the Lower Thames Valley (London, UK)

Two new multi-proxy records of environmental change are provided from Horton Kirby Paper Mill and Old Seager Distillery in the Lower Thames Valley. Each site has evidence for a decline in elm woodland, which at Horton Kirby Paper Mill is recorded earlier than any other published record from the British Isles: sometime between 7320 and 7240 cal BP. Scolytus scolytus/S. multistriatus (the vectors for Dutch elm disease) are recorded after the decline in both sequences, adding to the number of sites with such evidence in the British Isles. Evidence of paludification and human activity are also recorded at the time of the elm decline reinforcing the multi-causal hypothesis. Integration of these results with 21 palaeoenvironmental records has produced a large number of well-dated, multiproxy records of the elm decline in this part of the UK. On the basis of this dataset, a classification system for categorising the relationships between the causal factors of the elm decline is proposed and recommended for future studies.

Holocene alluvial environments at Barking, Lower Thames Valley (London, UK)

Deposit modelling based on archived borehole logs supplemented by a small number of dedicated boreholes is used to reconstruct the main boundary surfaces and the thickness of the main sediment units within the succession of Holocene alluvial deposits underlying the floodplain in the Barking Reach of the Lower Thames Valley. The basis of the modelling exercise is discussed and the models are used to assess the significance of floodplain relief in determining patterns of sedimentation. This evidence is combined with the results of biostratigraphical and geochronological investigations to reconstruct the environmental conditions associated with each successive stage of floodplain aggradation. The two main factors affecting the history and spatial pattern of Holocene sedimentation are shown to be the regional behaviour of relative sea level and the pattern of relief on the surface of the sub-alluvial, Late Devensian Shepperton Gravel. As is generally the case in the Lower Thames Valley, three main stratigraphic units are recognised, the Lower Alluvium, a peat bed broadly equivalent to the Tilbury III peat of Devoy (1979) and an Upper Alluvium. There is no evidence to suggest that the floodplain was substantially re-shaped by erosion during the Holocene. Instead, the relief inherited from the Shepperton Gravel surface was gradually buried either by the accumulation of peat or by deposition of fine-grained sediment from suspension in standing or slow-moving water. The palaeoenvironmental record from Barking confirms important details of the Holocene record observed elsewhere in the Lower Thames Valley, including the presence of Taxus in the valley-floor fen carr woodland between about 5000 and 4000 cal BP, and the subsequent growth of Ulmus on the peat surface.

The SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone climatologies from limb-viewing instruments and the nadir-viewing Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300–70 hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a “zonal mean” ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p ≤ 100 hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of <15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

The potential impact of changes in lower stratospheric water vapour on stratospheric temperatures over the past 30 years

This study investigates the potential contribution of observed changes in lower stratospheric water vapour to stratospheric temperature variations over the past three decades using a comprehensive global climate model (GCM). Three case studies are considered. In the first, the net increase in stratospheric water vapour (SWV) from 1980–2010 (derived from the Boulder frost-point hygrometer record using the gross assumption that this is globally representative) is estimated to have cooled the lower stratosphere by up to ∼0.2 K decade−1 in the global and annual mean; this is ∼40% of the observed cooling trend over this period. In the Arctic winter stratosphere there is a dynamical response to the increase in SWV, with enhanced polar cooling of 0.6 K decade−1 at 50 hPa and warming of 0.5 K decade−1 at 1 hPa. In the second case study, the observed decrease in tropical lower stratospheric water vapour after the year 2000 (imposed in the GCM as a simplified representation of the observed changes derived from satellite data) is estimated to have caused a relative increase in tropical lower stratospheric temperatures by ∼0.3 K at 50 hPa. In the third case study, the wintertime dehydration in the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex (again using a simplified representation of the changes seen in a satellite dataset) is estimated to cause a relative warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere by up to 1 K at 100 hPa from July–October. This is accompanied by a weakening of the westerly winds on the poleward flank of the stratospheric jet by up to 1.5 m s−1 in the GCM. The results show that, if the measurements are representative of global variations, SWV should be considered as important a driver of transient and long-term variations in lower stratospheric temperature over the past 30 years as increases in long-lived greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion.

Transreal limits expose category errors in IEEE 754 floating-point arithmetic and in mathematics

The IEEE 754 standard for oating-point arithmetic is widely used in computing. It is based on real arithmetic and is made total by adding both a positive and a negative infinity, a negative zero, and many Not-a-Number (NaN) states. The IEEE infinities are said to have the behaviour of limits. Transreal arithmetic is total. It also has a positive and a negative infinity but no negative zero, and it has a single, unordered number, nullity. We elucidate the transreal tangent and extend real limits to transreal limits. Arguing from this firm foundation, we maintain that there are three category errors in the IEEE 754 standard. Firstly the claim that IEEE infinities are limits of real arithmetic confuses limiting processes with arithmetic. Secondly a defence of IEEE negative zero confuses the limit of a function with the value of a function. Thirdly the definition of IEEE NaNs confuses undefined with unordered. Furthermore we prove that the tangent function, with the infinities given by geometrical con- struction, has a period of an entire rotation, not half a rotation as is commonly understood. This illustrates a category error, confusing the limit with the value of a function, in an important area of applied mathe- matics { trigonometry. We brie y consider the wider implications of this category error. Another paper proposes transreal arithmetic as a basis for floating- point arithmetic; here we take the profound step of proposing transreal arithmetic as a replacement for real arithmetic to remove the possibility of certain category errors in mathematics. Thus we propose both theo- retical and practical advantages of transmathematics. In particular we argue that implementing transreal analysis in trans- floating-point arith- metic would extend the coverage, accuracy and reliability of almost all computer programs that exploit real analysis { essentially all programs in science and engineering and many in finance, medicine and other socially beneficial applications.

Vertical profile measurements of lower troposphere ionisation

Vertical soundings of the atmospheric ion production rate have been obtained from Geiger counters integrated with conventional meteorological radiosondes. In launches made from Reading (UK) during 2013-2014, the Regener-Pfotzer ionisation maximum was at an altitude equivalent to a pressure of (63.1±2.4) hPa, or, expressed in terms of the local air density, (0.101±0.005) kgm−3. The measured ionisation profiles have been evaluated against the Usoskin-Kovaltsov model and, separately, surface neutron monitor data from Oulu. Model ionisation rates agree well with the observed cosmic ray ionisation below 20 km altitude. Above 10 km, the measured ionisation rates also correlate well with simultaneous neutron monitor data, although, consistently with previous work, measured variability at the ionisation maximum is greater than that found by the neutron monitor. However, in the lower atmosphere (below 5 km altitude), agreement between the measurements and simultaneous neutron monitor data is poor. For studies of transient lower atmosphere phenomena associated with cosmic ray ionisation, this indicates the need for in situ ionisation measurements and improved lower atmosphere parameterisations.

Effects of allometry, productivity and lifestyle on rates and limits of body size evolution

Body size affects nearly all aspects of organismal biology, so it is important to understand the constraints and dynamics of body size evolution. Despite empirical work on the macroevolution and macroecology of minimum and maximum size, there is little general quantitative theory on rates and limits of body size evolution. We present a general theory that integrates individual productivity, the lifestyle component of the slow–fast life-history continuum, and the allometric scaling of generation time to predict a clade's evolutionary rate and asymptotic maximum body size, and the shape of macroevolutionary trajectories during diversifying phases of size evolution. We evaluate this theory using data on the evolution of clade maximum body sizes in mammals during the Cenozoic. As predicted, clade evolutionary rates and asymptotic maximum sizes are larger in more productive clades (e.g. baleen whales), which represent the fast end of the slow–fast lifestyle continuum, and smaller in less productive clades (e.g. primates). The allometric scaling exponent for generation time fundamentally alters the shape of evolutionary trajectories, so allometric effects should be accounted for in models of phenotypic evolution and interpretations of macroevolutionary body size patterns. This work highlights the intimate interplay between the macroecological and macroevolutionary dynamics underlying the generation and maintenance of morphological diversity.

Transreal limits and elementary functions

We extend all elementary functions from the real to the transreal domain so that they are defined on division by zero. Our method applies to a much wider class of functions so may be of general interest.

Half-remembered quotations from mostly forgotten speeches: the limits of Labour’s European policy discourse

This article uses discourse analysis to study the continuities in British foreign policy thinking within the Labour party from the 1960s to the present day. Using representative extracts from speeches by Hugh Gaitskell, Harold Wilson, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, it identifies the ideational consis- tencies in the leaders’ attitudes to: Empire; federalism in the EEC/EU; and laying down conditions that have to be met before any constructive engagement with ‘Europe’ can be countenanced. We argue that these consistencies, spanning a 50-year period, exemplify a certain stagnation both within Labour’s European discourses and within British foreign policy thinking more widely. We develop the idea that Labour party thinking has been crucially framed by both small ‘c’ conser- vative and upper-case Conservative ideology, popularised by Winston Churchill in his ‘three circles’ model of British foreign policy.