On the unification of long-term survival models

In this paper we extend the long-term survival model proposed by Chen et al. [Chen, M.-H., Ibrahim, J.G., Sinha, D., 1999. A new Bayesian model for survival data with a surviving fraction. journal of the American Statistical Association 94, 909-919] via the generating function of a real sequence introduced by Feller [Feller, W., 1968. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, third ed., vol. 1, Wiley, New York]. A direct consequence of this new formulation is the unification of the long-term survival models proposed by Berkson and Gage [Berkson, J., Gage, R.P., 1952. Survival cure for cancer patients following treatment. journal of the American Statistical Association 47, 501-515] and Chen et al. (see citation above). Also, we show that the long-term survival function formulated in this paper satisfies the proportional hazards property if, and only if, the number of competing causes related to the occurrence of an event of interest follows a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, a more flexible model than the one proposed by Yin and Ibrahim [Yin, G., Ibrahim, J.G., 2005. Cure rate models: A unified approach. The Canadian journal of Statistics 33, 559-570] is introduced and, motivated by Feller`s results, a very useful competing index is defined. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia from long-term AERONET monitoring (1993-1995 and 1999-2006)

We present a new climatology of atmospheric aerosols (primarily pyrogenic and biogenic) for the Brazilian tropics on the basis of a high-quality data set of spectral aerosol optical depth and directional sky radiance measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Cimel Sun-sky radiometers at more than 15 sites distributed across the Amazon basin and adjacent Cerrado region. This network is the only long-term project (with a record including observations from more than 11 years at some locations) ever to have provided ground-based remotely-sensed column aerosol properties for this critical region. Distinctive features of the Amazonian area aerosol are presented by partitioning the region into three aerosol regimes: southern Amazonian forest, Cerrado, and northern Amazonian forest. The monitoring sites generally include measurements from the interval 1999-2006, but some sites have measurement records that date back to the initial days of the AERONET program in 1993. Seasonal time series of aerosol optical depth (AOD), angstrom ngstrom exponent, and columnar-averaged microphysical properties of the aerosol derived from sky radiance inversion techniques (single-scattering albedo, volume size distribution, fine mode fraction of AOD, etc.) are described and contrasted for the defined regions. During the wet season, occurrences of mineral dust penetrating deep into the interior were observed.

Long-term oscillations in the sleep/wake cycle of infants

The development of circadian sleep-wakefulness rhythm was investigated by a longitudinal study of six normal infants. We propose an entropy based measure for the sleep/wake cycle fragmentation. Our results confirm that the sleep/wake cycle fragmentation and the sleep/wake ratio decrease, while the circadian power increases during the maturation process of infants. In addition to these expected linear trends in the variables devised to quantify sleep consolidation, circadian power and sleep/wake ratio, we found that they present infradian rhythms in the monthly range. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term follow-up of topical 5-aminolaevulinic acid photodynamic therapy diode laser single session for non-melanoma skin cancer

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is based on the association of a light source and tight sensitive agents in order to cause the selective death of tumor cells. To evaluate topical 5-aminolaevulinic acid (5-ALA) and diode laser photodynamic single session therapy single session for non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), a long-term follow-up was performed. Nineteen Bowen`s disease (BD) and 15 basal cell. carcinoma (BCC) lesions were submitted to 6-h topical and occlusive 20% 5-ALA plus DMSO and EDTA, and later were exposed to 630 nm diode laser, 100 or 300 J cm(-2) dose. At 3 months tumor-free rate was 91.2% (31/34) whereas at 60 months, 57.7% (15/26), slightly higher in BCC (63.6%; 7/11). The relation between the reduction of the clinical response and the increase of tumor dimension observed at 18 months was lost at 60 months. The sBCC recurrence was earlier compared to the nBCC one. ALA-PDT offered important advantages: it is minimally invasive, an option for patients under risk of surgical complications; clinical feasibility; treatment of multiple lesions in only one session or lesions in poor heating sites and superior esthetical results. However, the recurrence rate increase after ALA-PDT diode laser single session can be observed at tong-term follow-up, and the repetitive sessions, an additional. advantage of the method, is strongly recommended. The clinical response and recurrence time seem to be related to the laser light dose and NMSC types/sub-types, thickness and dimension, which must be considered for the choice of the ALA-PDT. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermochronology of central Ribeira Fold Belt, SE Brazil: Petrological and geochronological evidence for long-term high temperature maintenance during Western Gondwana amalgamation

The studied sector of the central Ribeira Fold Belt (SE Brazil) comprises metatexites, diatexites, charnockites and blastomylonites. This study integrates petrological and thermochronological data in order to constrain the thermotectonic and geodynamic evolution of this Neoproterozoic-Ordovician mobile belt during Western Gondwana amalgamation. New data indicate that after an earlier collision stage at similar to 610 Ma (zircon, U-Pb age), peak metamorphism and lower crust partial melting, coeval with the main regional high grade D(1) thrust deformation, occurred at 572-562 Ma (zircon, U-Pb ages). The overall average cooling rate was low (<5 degrees C/Ma) from 750 to 250 degrees C (at similar to 455 Ma; biotite-WR Rb-Sr age), but disparate cooling paths indicate differential uplift between distinct lithotypes: (a) metatexites and blastomylonites show a overall stable 3-5 degrees C/Ma cooling rate; (b) charnockites and associated rocks remained at T>650 degrees C during sub-horizontal D(2) shearing until similar to 510-470 Ma (garnet-WR Sm-Nd ages) (1-2 degrees C/Ma), being then rapidly exhumed/cooled (8-30 degrees C/Ma) during post-orogenic D(3) deformation with late granite emplacement at similar to 490 Ma (zircon, U-Pb age). Cooling rates based on garnet-biotite Fe-Mg diffusion are broadly consistent with the geochronological cooling rates: (a) metatexites were cooled faster at high temperatures (6 degrees C/Ma) and slowly at low temperatures (0.1 degrees C/Ma), decreasing cooling rates with time; (b) charnockites show low cooling rates (2 degrees C/Ma) near metamorphic peak conditions and high cooling rates (120 degrees C/Ma) at lower temperatures, increasing cooling rates during retrogression. The charnockite thermal evolution and the extensive production of granitoid melts in the area imply that high geothermal gradients were sustained fora long period of time (50-90 Ma). This thermal anomaly most likely reflects upwelling of asthenospheric mantle and magma underplating coupled with long-term generation of high HPE (heat producing elements) granitoids. These factors must have sustained elevated crustal geotherms for similar to 100 Ma, promoting widespread charnockite generation at middle to lower crustal levels. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Long-term intermittent feeding, but not caloric restriction, leads to redox imbalance, insulin receptor nitration, and glucose intolerance

Calorie restriction is a dietary intervention known to improve redox state, glucose tolerance, and animal life span. Other interventions have been adopted as study models for caloric restriction, including nonsupplemented food restriction and intermittent, every-other-day feedings. We compared the short- and long-term effects of these interventions to ad libitum protocols and found that, although all restricted diets decrease body weight, intermittent feeding did not decrease intra-abdominal adiposity. Short-term calorie restriction and intermittent feeding presented similar results relative to glucose tolerance. Surprisingly, long-term intermittent feeding promoted glucose intolerance, without a loss in insulin receptor phosphorylation. Intermittent feeding substantially increased insulin receptor nitration in both intra-abdominal adipose tissue and muscle, a modification associated with receptor inactivation. All restricted diets enhanced nitric oxide synthase levels in the insulin-responsive adipose tissue and skeletal muscle. However, whereas calorie restriction improved tissue redox state, food restriction and intermittent feedings did not. In fact, long-term intermittent feeding resulted in largely enhanced tissue release of oxidants. Overall, our results show that restricted diets are significantly different in their effects on glucose tolerance and redox state when adopted long-term. Furthermore, we show that intermittent feeding can lead to oxidative insulin receptor inactivation and glucose intolerance. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling and forecasting long-term natural gas (NG) consumption in Iran, using particle swarm optimization (PSO)

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

A SPATIAL COMPARISON OF SHORT AND LONG TERM MIGRATION TRENDS IN CHINA

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