995 resultados para Load forecast


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Introduction: Spinal fusion is a widely and successfully performed strategy for the treatment of spinal deformities and degenerative diseases. The general approach has been to stabilize the spine with implants so that a solid bony fusion between the vertebrae can develop. However, new implant designs have emerged that aim at preservation or restoration of the motion of the spinal segment. In addition to static, load sharing principles, these designs also require a profound knowledge of kinematic and dynamic properties to properly characterise the in vivo performance of the implants. Methods: To address this, an apparatus was developed that enables the intraoperative determination of the load–displacement behavior of spinal motion segments. The apparatus consists of a sensor-equipped distractor to measure the applied force between the transverse processes, and an optoelectronic camera to track the motion of vertebrae and the distractor. In this intraoperative trial, measurements from two patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis with right thoracic curves were made at four motion segments each. Results: At a lateral bending moment of 5 N m, the mean flexibility of all eight motion segments was 0.18 ± 0.08°/N m on the convex side and 0.24 ± 0.11°/N m on the concave side. Discussion: The results agree with published data obtained from cadaver studies with and without axial preload. Intraoperatively acquired data with this method may serve as an input for mathematical models and contribute to the development of new implants and treatment strategies.

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Objectives  To determine the improvement in positive predictive value of immunological failure criteria for identifying virological failure in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) when a single targeted viral load measurement is performed in children identified as having immunological failure. Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Immunological failure was defined according to both WHO 2010 and United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 criteria. Confirmed virological failure was defined as HIV-RNA >5000 copies/ml on two consecutive occasions <365 days apart in a child on ART for ≥18 months. Results  Among 2798 children on ART for ≥18 months [median (IQR) age 50 (21-84) months at ART initiation], the cumulative probability of confirmed virological failure by 42 months on ART was 6.3%. Using targeted viral load after meeting DHHS immunological failure criteria rather than DHHS immunological failure criteria alone increased positive predictive value from 28% to 82%. Targeted viral load improved the positive predictive value of WHO 2010 criteria for identifying confirmed virological failure from 49% to 82%. Conclusion  The addition of a single viral load measurement in children identified as failing immunologically will prevent most switches to second-line treatment in virologically suppressed children.

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Background PCSK9 (Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin Kexin type 9) is a circulating protein that promotes hypercholesterolemia by decreasing hepatic LDL receptor protein. Under non interventional conditions, its expression is driven by sterol response element binding protein 2 (SREBP2) and follows a diurnal rhythm synchronous with cholesterol synthesis. Plasma PCSK9 is associated to LDL-C and to a lesser extent plasma triglycerides and insulin resistance. We aimed to verify the effect on plasma PCSK9 concentrations of dietary interventions that affect these parameters. Methods We performed nutritional interventions in young healthy male volunteers and offspring of type 2 diabetic (OffT2D) patients that are more prone to develop insulin resistance, including: i) acute post-prandial hyperlipidemic challenge (n=10), ii) 4 days of high-fat (HF) or high-fat/high-protein (HFHP) (n=10), iii) 7 (HFruc1, n=16) or 6 (HFruc2, n=9) days of hypercaloric high-fructose diets. An acute oral fat load was also performed in two patients bearing the R104C-V114A loss-of-function (LOF) PCSK9 mutation. Plasma PCSK9 concentrations were measured by ELISA. For the HFruc1 study, intrahepatocellular (IHCL) and intramyocellular lipids were measured by 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Hepatic and whole-body insulin sensitivity was assessed with a two-step hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp (0.3 and 1.0 mU.kg-1.min-1). Findings HF and HFHP short-term diets, as well as an acute hyperlipidemic oral load, did not significantly change PCSK9 concentrations. In addition, post-prandial plasma triglyceride excursion was not altered in two carriers of PCSK9 LOF mutation compared with non carriers. In contrast, hypercaloric 7-day HFruc1 diet increased plasma PCSK9 concentrations by 28% (p=0.05) in healthy volunteers and by 34% (p=0.001) in OffT2D patients. In another independent study, 6-day HFruc2 diet increased plasma PCSK9 levels by 93% (p<0.0001) in young healthy male volunteers. Spearman’s correlations revealed that plasma PCSK9 concentrations upon 7-day HFruc1 diet were positively associated with plasma triglycerides (r=0.54, p=0.01) and IHCL (r=0.56, p=0.001), and inversely correlated with hepatic (r=0.54, p=0.014) and whole-body (r=−0.59, p=0.0065) insulin sensitivity. Conclusions Plasma PCSK9 concentrations vary minimally in response to a short term high-fat diet and they are not accompanied with changes in cholesterolemia upon high-fructose diet. Short-term high-fructose intake increased plasma PCSK9 levels, independent on cholesterol synthesis, suggesting a regulation independent of SREBP-2. Upon this diet, PCSK9 is associated with insulin resistance, hepatic steatosis and plasma triglycerides.

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Background Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load. Methods and Findings Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements <50 copies/µl and ending with either a measurement >500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50–500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30–0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71–0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66–0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92–0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl. Conclusions Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl.

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The aim of this project was to evaluate the present state and possible changes of water resources in Lake Ladoga and its drainage basin for the purposes of the sustainable development of North-Western Russia and Finland. The group assessed the state of the water resources in quantitative and qualitative terms, taking the system of sustainable development indicators suggested by the International Commission on Sustainable Development as a basis for assessment. These include pressure indicators (annual withdrawals of ground and surface water, domestic consumption of water per capita), state indicators (ground water reserves, concentration of faecalcoliform in fresh water, biochemical oxygen demand), and response indicators (waste-water treatment coverage, density of hydrological networks). The group proposed the following additional indicators and indices for the complex evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative state of the region's water resources: * Pressure indicators (external load, coefficient of anthropogenic pressure) * State indicators and indices (concentrations of chemicals in water, concentrations of chemicals in sediments, index of water pollution, critical load, critical limit, internal load, load/critical load, concentration/critical limit, internal load/external load, trophic state, biotic indicators and indices) * Response indicators (discharges of pure water, polluted water, partly treated water and the ratio between these, trans-boundary fluxes of pollutants, state expenditure on environmental protection, human life span) The assessment considered both temporal and spatial aspects and produced a regional classification of the area according to the index of water pollution. Mathematical models were developed to describe and forecast the processes under way in the lake and can be used to estimate the influence of climatic changes on the hydrological regime, as well as the influence of anthropogenic load on the trophic state of Lake Ladoga and to assess the consequences of accidental discharges of polluting admixtures of different kinds into the lake. The results of this mathematical modelling may be of use to decision-makers responsible for the management of water resources.

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Caprine arthritis encephalitis virus (CAEV) is a lentivirus of goats that causes persistent infection characterized by the appearance of inflammatory lesions in various organs. To define the sites of persistence, 5 goats were infected with a molecular clone of CAEV, and the viral load was monitored by real-time-PCR and RT-PCR in different sites 8 years after infection. The lymph nodes proved to be an important virus reservoir, with moderate virus replication relative to what is reported for lentiviruses of primates. Mammary gland and milk cells were preferred sites of viral replication. The viral load varied significantly between animals, which points to an important role of the genetic background. We found a clear association between occurrence of histopathological lesions and viral load in specific sites. The mRNA expression analysis of several cytokines did not reveal differences between animals that could explain the considerable individual variations in viral load observed.

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Vaccines with limited ability to prevent HIV infection may positively impact the HIV/AIDS pandemic by preventing secondary transmission and disease in vaccine recipients who become infected. To evaluate the impact of vaccination on secondary transmission and disease, efficacy trials assess vaccine effects on HIV viral load and other surrogate endpoints measured after infection. A standard test that compares the distribution of viral load between the infected subgroups of vaccine and placebo recipients does not assess a causal effect of vaccine, because the comparison groups are selected after randomization. To address this problem, we formulate clinically relevant causal estimands using the principal stratification framework developed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002), and propose a class of logistic selection bias models whose members identify the estimands. Given a selection model in the class, procedures are developed for testing and estimation of the causal effect of vaccination on viral load in the principal stratum of subjects who would be infected regardless of randomization assignment. We show how the procedures can be used for a sensitivity analysis that quantifies how the causal effect of vaccination varies with the presumed magnitude of selection bias.

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BACKGROUND: Although combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dramatically reduces rates of AIDS and death, a minority of patients experience clinical disease progression during treatment. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether detection of CXCR4(X4)-specific strains or quantification of X4-specific HIV-1 load predict clinical outcome. METHODS: From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 96 participants who initiated cART yet subsequently progressed to AIDS or death were compared with 84 contemporaneous, treated nonprogressors. A sensitive heteroduplex tracking assay was developed to quantify plasma X4 and CCR5 variants and resolve HIV-1 load into coreceptor-specific components. Measurements were analyzed as cofactors of progression in multivariable Cox models adjusted for concurrent CD4 cell count and total viral load, applying inverse probability weights to adjust for sampling bias. RESULTS: Patients with X4 variants at baseline displayed reduced CD4 cell responses compared with those without X4 strains (40 versus 82 cells/microl; P = 0.012). The adjusted multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for clinical progression was 4.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-10.0] for those demonstrating X4 strains at baseline. The X4-specific HIV-1 load was a similarly independent predictor, with HR values of 3.7 (95% CI, 1.2-11.3) and 5.9 (95% CI, 2.2-15.0) for baseline loads of 2.2-4.3 and > 4.3 log10 copies/ml, respectively, compared with < 2.2 log10 copies/ml. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-1 coreceptor usage and X4-specific viral loads strongly predicted disease progression during cART, independent of and in addition to CD4 cell count or total viral load. Detection and quantification of X4 strains promise to be clinically useful biomarkers to guide patient management and study HIV-1 pathogenesis.

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BACKGROUND: CD4+ T-cell recovery in patients with continuous suppression of plasma HIV-1 viral load (VL) is highly variable. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in treatment-naive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study reaching two VL measurements <50 copies/ml >3 months apart during the 1st year of cART were included (n=1816 patients). We studied CD4+ T-cell dynamics until the end of suppression or up to 5 years, subdivided into three periods: 1st year, years 2-3 and years 4-5 of suppression. Multiple median regression adjusted for repeated CD4+ T-cell measurements was used to study the dependence of CD4+ T-cell slopes on clinical covariates and drug classes. RESULTS: Median CD4+ T-cell increases following VL suppression were 87, 52 and 19 cells/microl per year in the three periods. In the multiple regression model, median CD4+ T-cell increases over all three periods were significantly higher for female gender, lower age, higher VL at cART start, CD4+ T-cell <650 cells/microl at start of the period and low CD4+ T-cell increase in the previous period. Patients on tenofovir showed significantly lower CD4+ T-cell increases compared with stavudine. CONCLUSIONS: In our observational study, long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in drug-naive patients with suppressed VL was higher in regimens without tenofovir. The clinical relevance of these findings must be confirmed in, ideally, clinical trials or large, collaborative cohort projects but could influence treatment of older patients and those starting cART at low CD4+ T-cell levels.