Preprocessing data for short-term load forecasting with a general regression neural network and a moving average filter

This paper proposes a filter based on a general regression neural network and a moving average filter, for preprocessing half-hourly load data for short-term multinodal load forecasting, discussed in another paper. Tests made with half-hourly load data from nine New Zealand electrical substations demonstrate that this filter is able to handle noise, missing data and abnormal data. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

Characterization of the temperature, load and damage effects using piezoelectric transducer patches based on fuzzy clustering

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) denotes a system with the ability to detect and interpret adverse changes in a structure. One of the critical challenges for practical implementation of SHM system is the ability to detect damage under changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize the temperature, load and damage effects in the sensor measurements obtained with piezoelectric transducer (PZT) patches. Data sets are collected on thin aluminum specimens under different environmental conditions and artificially induced damage states. The fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to organize the sensor measurements into a set of clusters, which can attribute the variation in sensor data due to temperature, load or any induced damage.

A visual tool for building synchronous generator capability curves

Synchronous generators are essential components of electric power systems. They are present both in hydro and thermal power plants, performing the function of converting mechanical into electrical energy. This paper presents a visual approach to manipulate parameters that affect operation limits of synchronous generators, using a specifically designed software. The operating characteristics of synchronous generators, for all possible modes of operation, are revised in order to link the concepts to the graphic objects. The approach matches the distance learning tool requirements and also enriches the learning process by developing student trust and understanding of the concepts involved in building synchronous machine capability curves. © 2012 IEEE.

Parameterization technique for the continuation power flow using the trivial and tangent predictor

This paper presents efficient geometric parameterization techniques using the tangent and the trivial predictors for the continuation power flow, developed from observation of the trajectories of the load flow solution. The parameterization technique eliminates the Jacobian matrix singularity of load flow, and therefore all the consequent problems of ill-conditioning, by the addition of the line equations which pass through the points in the plane determined by the variables loading factor and the real power generated by the slack bus, two parameters with clear physical meaning. This paper also provides an automatic step size control around the maximum loading point. Thus, the resulting method enables not only the calculation of the maximum loading point, but also the complete tracing of P-V curves of electric power systems. The technique combines robustness with ease of understanding. The results to the IEEE 300-bus system and of large real systems show the effectiveness of the proposed method. © 2012 IEEE.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Application of Conservative Power Theory to load and line characterization and revenue metering

This paper proposes a set of performance factors for load characterization and revenue metering. They are based on the Conservative Power Theory, and each of them relates to a specific load non-ideality (unbalance, reactivity, distortion). The performance factors are capable to characterize the load under different operating conditions, considering also the effect of non-negligible line impedances and supply voltage deterioration. © 2012 IEEE.

Growth curves for ostriches (Struthio camelus) in a Brazilian population

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A mixed-integer linear programming approach for optimal type, size and allocation of distributed generation in radial distribution systems

This paper presents a mixed-integer linear programming approach to solving the problem of optimal type, size and allocation of distributed generators (DGs) in radial distribution systems. In the proposed formulation, (a) the steady-state operation of the radial distribution system, considering different load levels, is modeled through linear expressions; (b) different types of DGs are represented by their capability curves; (c) the short-circuit current capacity of the circuits is modeled through linear expressions; and (d) different topologies of the radial distribution system are considered. The objective function minimizes the annualized investment and operation costs. The use of a mixed-integer linear formulation guarantees convergence to optimality using existing optimization software. The results of one test system are presented in order to show the accuracy as well as the efficiency of the proposed solution technique.© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intensified peginterferon α-2a dosing increases sustained virologic response rates in heavy, high viral load hepatitis c genotype 1 patients with high low-density lipoprotein

BACKGROUND AND GOAL: Patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) with elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels achieve higher sustained virologic response (SVR) rates after peginterferon (PegIFN)/ribavirin treatment versus patients with lower LDL. Our aim was to determine whether SVR rates in patients with low/elevated LDL can be improved by dose intensification. STUDY: In PROGRESS, genotype 1 patients with baseline HCV RNA≥400,000 IU/mL and body weight ≥85 kg were randomized to 48 weeks of 180 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a (40 kDa) plus ribavirin (A: 1200 mg/d; B: 1400/1600 mg/d) or 12 weeks of 360 μg/wk PegIFN α-2a followed by 36 weeks of 180 μg/wk, plus ribavirin (C: 1200 mg/d; D: 1400/1600 mg/d). This retrospective analysis assessed SVR rates among patients with low (<100 mg/dL) or elevated (≥100 mg/dL) LDL. Patients with high LDL (n=256) had higher baseline HCV RNA (5.86×10 IU/mL) versus patients with low LDL (n=262; 4.02×10 IU/mL; P=0.0003). RESULTS: Multiple logistic regression analysis identified a significant interaction between PegIFN α-2a dose and LDL levels on SVR (P=0.0193). The only treatment-related SVR predictor in the nested multiple logistic regression was PegIFN α-2a dose among patients with elevated LDL (P=0.0074); therefore, data from the standard (A+B) and induction (C+D) dose arms were pooled. Among patients with low LDL, SVR rates were 40% and 35% in the standard and induction-dose groups, respectively; SVR rates in patients with high LDL were 44% and 60% (P=0.014), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Intensified dosing of PegIFN α-2a increases SVR rates in patients with elevated LDL even with the difficult-to-cure characteristics of genotype 1, high baseline viral load, and high body weight. Copyright © 2013 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Grip and load force coordination in cyclical isometric manipulation task is not affected by the feedback type

Background: The relationship between normal and tangential force components (grip force - GF and load force - LF, respectively) acting on the digits-object interface during object manipulation reveals neural mechanisms involved in movement control. Here, we examined whether the feedback type provided to the participants during exertion of LF would influence GF-LF coordination and task performance. Methods. Sixteen young (24.7 ±3.8 years-old) volunteers isometrically exerted continuously sinusoidal FZ (vertical component of LF) by pulling a fixed instrumented handle up and relaxing under two feedback conditions: targeting and tracking. In targeting condition, FZ exertion range was determined by horizontal lines representing the upper (10 N) and lower (1 N) targets, with frequency (0.77 or 1.53 Hz) dictated by a metronome. In tracking condition, a sinusoidal template set at similar frequencies and range was presented and should be superposed by the participants' exerted FZ. Task performance was assessed by absolute errors at peaks (AEPeak) and valleys (AEValley) and GF-LF coordination by GF-LF ratios, maximum cross-correlation coefficients (r max), and time lags. Results: The results revealed no effect of feedback and no feedback by frequency interaction on any variable. AE Peak and GF-LF ratio were higher and rmax lower at 1.53 Hz than at 0.77 Hz. Conclusion: These findings indicate that the type of feedback does not influence task performance and GF-LF coordination. Therefore, we recommend the use of tracking tasks when assessing GF-LF coordination during isometric LF exertion in externally fixed instrumented handles because they are easier to understand and provide additional indices (e.g., RMSE) of voluntary force control. © 2013 Pedão et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.