Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system.

The Normal Quantile Transform (NQT) has been used in many hydrological and meteorological applications in order to make the Cumulated Distribution Function (CDF) of the observed, simulated and forecast river discharge, water level or precipitation data Gaussian. It is also the heart of the meta-Gaussian model for assessing the total predictive uncertainty of the Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (HUP) developed by Krzysztofowicz. In the field of geo-statistics this transformation is better known as the Normal-Score Transform. In this paper some possible problems caused by small sample sizes when applying the NQT in flood forecasting systems will be discussed and a novel way to solve the problem will be outlined by combining extreme value analysis and non-parametric regression methods. The method will be illustrated by examples of hydrological stream-flow forecasts.

Constructing the frequency and wave normal distribution of whistler-mode wave power

We introduce a new methodology that allows the construction of wave frequency distributions due to growing incoherent whistler-mode waves in the magnetosphere. The technique combines the equations of geometric optics (i.e. raytracing) with the equation of transfer of radiation in an anisotropic lossy medium to obtain spectral energy density as a function of frequency and wavenormal angle. We describe the method in detail, and then demonstrate how it could be used in an idealised magnetosphere during quiet geomagnetic conditions. For a specific set of plasma conditions, we predict that the wave power peaks off the equator at ~15 degrees magnetic latitude. The new calculations predict that wave power as a function of frequency can be adequately described using a Gaussian function, but as a function of wavenormal angle, it more closely resembles a skew normal distribution. The technique described in this paper is the first known estimate of the parallel and oblique incoherent wave spectrum as a result of growing whistler-mode waves, and provides a means to incorporate self-consistent wave-particle interactions in a kinetic model of the magnetosphere over a large volume.

Establishment of normal gut microbiota is compromised under excessive hygiene conditions

Background: Early gut colonization events are purported to have a major impact on the incidence of infectious, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases in later life. Hence, factors which influence this process may have important implications for both human and animal health. Previously, we demonstrated strong influences of early-life environment on gut microbiota composition in adult pigs. Here, we sought to further investigate the impact of limiting microbial exposure during early life on the development of the pig gut microbiota. Methodology/Principal Findings: Outdoor- and indoor-reared animals, exposed to the microbiota in their natural rearing environment for the first two days of life, were transferred to an isolator facility and adult gut microbial diversity was analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. From a total of 2,196 high-quality 16S rRNA gene sequences, 440 phylotypes were identified in the outdoor group and 431 phylotypes in the indoor group. The majority of clones were assigned to the four phyla Firmicutes (67.5% of all sequences), Proteobacteria (17.7%), Bacteroidetes (13.5%) and to a lesser extent, Actinobacteria (0.1%). Although the initial maternal and environmental microbial inoculum of isolator-reared animals was identical to that of their naturally-reared littermates, the microbial succession and stabilization events reported previously in naturally-reared outdoor animals did not occur. In contrast, the gut microbiota of isolator-reared animals remained highly diverse containing a large number of distinct phylotypes. Conclusions/Significance: The results documented here indicate that establishment and development of the normal gut microbiota requires continuous microbial exposure during the early stages of life and this process is compromised under conditions of excessive hygiene.

Continuum sea ice rheology determined from subcontinuum mechanics

[1] A method is presented to calculate the continuum-scale sea ice stress as an imposed, continuum-scale strain-rate is varied. The continuum-scale stress is calculated as the area-average of the stresses within the floes and leads in a region (the continuum element). The continuum-scale stress depends upon: the imposed strain rate; the subcontinuum scale, material rheology of sea ice; the chosen configuration of sea ice floes and leads; and a prescribed rule for determining the motion of the floes in response to the continuum-scale strain-rate. We calculated plastic yield curves and flow rules associated with subcontinuum scale, material sea ice rheologies with elliptic, linear and modified Coulombic elliptic plastic yield curves, and with square, diamond and irregular, convex polygon-shaped floes. For the case of a tiling of square floes, only for particular orientations of the leads have the principal axes of strain rate and calculated continuum-scale sea ice stress aligned, and these have been investigated analytically. The ensemble average of calculated sea ice stress for square floes with uniform orientation with respect to the principal axes of strain rate yielded alignment of average stress and strain-rate principal axes and an isotropic, continuum-scale sea ice rheology. We present a lemon-shaped yield curve with normal flow rule, derived from ensemble averages of sea ice stress, suitable for direct inclusion into the current generation of sea ice models. This continuum-scale sea ice rheology directly relates the size (strength) of the continuum-scale yield curve to the material compressive strength.

Post-normal science and the art of nature conservation

Nature conservation may be considered a post-normal science in that the loss of biodiversity and increasing environmental degradation require urgent action but are characterised by uncertainty at every level. An ‘extended peer community’ with varying skills, perceptions and values are involved in decision-making and implementation of conservation, and the uncertainty involved limits the effectiveness of practice. In this paper we briefly review the key ecological, philosophical and methodological uncertainties associated with conservation, and then highlight the uncertainties and gaps present within the structure and interactions of the conservation community, and which exist mainly between researchers and practitioners, in the context of nature conservation in the UK. We end by concluding that an openly post-normal science framework for conservation, which acknowledges this uncertainty but strives to minimise it, would be a useful progression for nature conservation, and recommend ways in which knowledge transfer between researchers and practitioners can be improved to support robust decision making and conservation enactment.

Climate change and infectious disease: time for a new normal?

At present, there is a clarion call for action on climate change across the global health landscape. At the recent WHO-sponsored conference on health and climate (held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Aug 27–29, 2014) and the UN Climate Summit (New York, USA, on Sept 23, 2014), participants were encouraged to act decisively to change the current trajectory of climate disruption. Health inequalities, including those related to infectious diseases, have now been pushed to centre stage. This approach represents a step-change in thinking. But as we are urged toward collective action, is it time to rethink our approach to research, especially in relation to climate change and infectious disease?

Modeling plant transpiration under limited soil water: comparison of different plant and soil hydraulic parameterizations and preliminary implications for their use in land surface models

Accurate estimates of how soil water stress affects plant transpiration are crucial for reliable land surface model (LSM) predictions. Current LSMs generally use a water stress factor, β, dependent on soil moisture content, θ, that ranges linearly between β = 1 for unstressed vegetation and β = 0 when wilting point is reached. This paper explores the feasibility of replacing the current approach with equations that use soil water potential as their independent variable, or with a set of equations that involve hydraulic and chemical signaling, thereby ensuring feedbacks between the entire soil–root–xylem–leaf system. A comparison with the original linear θ-based water stress parameterization, and with its improved curvi-linear version, was conducted. Assessment of model suitability was focused on their ability to simulate the correct (as derived from experimental data) curve shape of relative transpiration versus fraction of transpirable soil water. We used model sensitivity analyses under progressive soil drying conditions, employing two commonly used approaches to calculate water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves. Furthermore, for each of these hydraulic parameterizations we used two different parameter sets, for 3 soil texture types; a total of 12 soil hydraulic permutations. Results showed that the resulting transpiration reduction functions (TRFs) varied considerably among the models. The fact that soil hydraulic conductivity played a major role in the model that involved hydraulic and chemical signaling led to unrealistic values of β, and hence TRF, for many soil hydraulic parameter sets. However, this model is much better equipped to simulate the behavior of different plant species. Based on these findings, we only recommend implementation of this approach into LSMs if great care with choice of soil hydraulic parameters is taken

Polymer brushes under shear: molecular dynamics simulations compared to experiments

Surfaces coated with polymer brushes in a good solvent are known to exhibit excellent tribological properties. We have performed coarse-grained equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate dextran polymer brushes in an aqueous environment in molecular detail. In a first step, we determined simulation parameters and units by matching experimental results for a single dextran chain. Analyzing this model when applied to a multichain system, density profiles of end-tethered polymer brushes obtained from equilibrium MD simulations compare very well with expectations based on self-consistent field theory. Simulation results were further validated against and correlated with available experimental results. The simulated compression curves (normal force as a function of surface separation) compare successfully with results obtained with a surface forces apparatus. Shear stress (friction) obtained via nonequilibrium MD is contrasted with nanoscale friction studies employing colloidal-probe lateral force microscopy. We find good agreement in the hydrodynamic regime and explain the observed leveling-off of the friction forces in the boundary regime by means of an effective polymer–wall attraction.

Uniqueness of signature for simple curves

We propose a topological approach to the problem of determining a curve from its iterated integrals. In particular, we prove that a family of terms in the signature series of a two dimensional closed curve with finite p-variation, 1≤p<2, are in fact moments of its winding number. This relation allows us to prove that the signature series of a class of simple non-smooth curves uniquely determine the curves. This implies that outside a Chordal SLEκ null set, where 0<κ≤4, the signature series of curves uniquely determine the curves. Our calculations also enable us to express the Fourier transform of the n-point functions of SLE curves in terms of the expected signature of SLE curves. Although the techniques used in this article are deterministic, the results provide a platform for studying SLE curves through the signatures of their sample paths.

Simple piecewise geodesic interpolation of simple and Jordan curves with applications

We explicitly construct simple, piecewise minimizing geodesic, arbitrarily fine interpolation of simple and Jordan curves on a Riemannian manifold. In particular, a finite sequence of partition points can be specified in advance to be included in our construction. Then we present two applications of our main results: the generalized Green’s theorem and the uniqueness of signature for planar Jordan curves with finite p -variation for 1⩽p<2.

Big data: a normal accident waiting to happen?

Widespread commercial use of the internet has significantly increased the volume and scope of data being collected by organisations. ‘Big data’ has emerged as a term to encapsulate both the technical and commercial aspects of this growing data collection activity. To date, much of the discussion of big data has centred upon its transformational potential for innovation and efficiency, yet there has been less reflection on its wider implications beyond commercial value creation. This paper builds upon normal accident theory (NAT) to analyse the broader ethical implications of big data. It argues that the strategies behind big data require organisational systems that leave them vulnerable to normal accidents, that is to say some form of accident or disaster that is both unanticipated and inevitable. Whilst NAT has previously focused on the consequences of physical accidents, this paper suggests a new form of system accident that we label data accidents. These have distinct, less tangible and more complex characteristics and raise significant questions over the role of individual privacy in a ‘data society’. The paper concludes by considering the ways in which the risks of such data accidents might be managed or mitigated.

Dystrophin immunoreactivity in normal and Duchenne human fetal neurons in culture.

Dystrophin, the protein product defective in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), is present in all types of muscle and in the brain. The function of the protein is unknown and its role in the brain is unclear, although 30% of DMD patients show nonprogressive mental retardation. We have therefore studied the localisation of dystrophin in cultures of normal and DMD human fetal neurons using antibodies raised to different regions of the protein. Dystrophin immunoreactivity was demonstrated in the soma and axon hillock of normal neurons and appeared to be associated with the inner part of the cell membrane, although some intracellular staining was also observed. Positive dystrophin staining was present only in cells with fully developed neuronal features, although not all the neurons were positive. Glial cells were always negative for the antigen. Immunostaining with antibodies to the brain spectrins indicate that the dystrophin antibodies did not crossreact with these proteins. The possibility of cross-reactivity with other proteins is discussed. Studies of cells cultured from a DMD fetus also showed specific dystrophin immunostaining in neurons, although the muscle was generally negative for dystrophin. However, the localisation of dystrophin immunostaining and that of the brain spectrins and neurofilaments appeared abnormal, as did the overall morphology of the cells. This suggests that dystrophin may play a role during brain development and dystrophin deficiency results in abnormal neuronal features. This would be consistent with the nonprogressive nature of the mental retardation observed in DMD patients.