Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?

We present a novel approach to assessing the attentiveness of professional forecasters to news about the macroeconomy. We find evidence that professional forecasters, taken as a group, do not always update their estimates of the current state of the economy to reflect the latest releases of revised estimates of key data.

Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation

Vintage-based vector autoregressive models of a single macroeconomic variable are shown to be a useful vehicle for obtaining forecasts of different maturities of future and past observations, including estimates of post-revision values. The forecasting performance of models which include information on annual revisions is superior to that of models which only include the first two data releases. However, the empirical results indicate that a model which reflects the seasonal nature of data releases more closely does not offer much improvement over an unrestricted vintage-based model which includes three rounds of annual revisions.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968-2010

Recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under- and over-predictions. Using an individual-level analysis that exploits the Survey of Professional Forecasters respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite

We present a new composite of geomagnetic activity which is designed to be as homogeneous in its construction as possible. This is done by only combining data that, by virtue of the locations of the source observatories used, have similar responses to solar wind and IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) variations. This will enable us (in Part 2, Lockwood et al., 2013a) to use the new index to reconstruct the interplanetary magnetic field, B, back to 1846 with a full analysis of errors. Allowance is made for the effects of secular change in the geomagnetic field. The composite uses interdiurnal variation data from Helsinki for 1845–1890 (inclusive) and 1893–1896 and from Eskdalemuir from 1911 to the present. The gaps are filled using data from the Potsdam (1891–1892 and 1897–1907) and the nearby Seddin observatories (1908–1910) and intercalibration achieved using the Potsdam–Seddin sequence. The new index is termed IDV(1d) because it employs many of the principles of the IDV index derived by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010), inspired by the u index of Bartels (1932); however, we revert to using one-day (1d) means, as employed by Bartels, because the use of near-midnight values in IDV introduces contamination by the substorm current wedge auroral electrojet, giving noise and a dependence on solar wind speed that varies with latitude. The composite is compared with independent, early data from European-sector stations, Greenwich, St Petersburg, Parc St Maur, and Ekaterinburg, as well as the composite u index, compiled from 2–6 stations by Bartels, and the IDV index of Svalgaard and Cliver. Agreement is found to be extremely good in all cases, except two. Firstly, the Greenwich data are shown to have gradually degraded in quality until new instrumentation was installed in 1915. Secondly, we infer that the Bartels u index is increasingly unreliable before about 1886 and overestimates the solar cycle amplitude between 1872 and 1883 and this is amplified in the proxy data used before 1872. This is therefore also true of the IDV index which makes direct use of the u index values.

The role of UK development industry in Brownfield regeneration Vol 1

As part of the SUBR:IM work (www.subrim.org.uk) being undertaken at The College, the research team for this project (Tim Dixon, Yasmin Pocock and Mike Waters) has produced the first two of three volumes covering Stage 2 of the research. Volume 1 examines the results from the national UK developer interviews (carried out in 2004-2005); National Land Use Database (NLUD) analysis (1998-2003); and residential planning permission analysis for Salford/Manchester and Barking & Dagenham (2000-2004) using Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi) data and published information. Volume 1 (of 3): Literature Review, National Developer Interviews, Planning Permission Analysis and NLUD Analysis

The role of UK development industry in Brownfield regeneration Vol 2

As part of the SUBR:IM work (www.subrim.org.uk) being undertaken at The College, the research team for this project (Tim Dixon, Yasmin Pocock and Mike Waters) has produced the first two of three volumes covering Stage 2 of the research. Volume 1 examines the results from the national UK developer interviews (carried out in 2004-2005); National Land Use Database (NLUD) analysis (1998-2003); and residential planning permission analysis for Salford/Manchester and Barking & Dagenham (2000-2004) using Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi) data and published information. Volume 2 covers the sub-regional context for Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester, which form the basis for the case studies (these are to be published as Volume 3 Volume 2 (of 3): Sub-regional context (Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester)

Antioxidant properties of three aromatic herbs (rosemary, thyme and lavender) in oil-in-water emulsions

Lipid oxidation is the major form of deterioration in foods because it decreases food quality and nutritional value, and may have negative health implications. Selected aromatic plant extracts from leaves, flowers and stems of rosemary, thyme and lavender were investigated for their antioxidant activity. The total polyphenol content was determined by the Folin-Ciocalteu assay and the antioxidant capacity was determined by the Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity, 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl, oxygen radical absorbance capacity and ferric-reducing antioxidant power assays. For all four antioxidant assays, the extracts from thyme flowers, lavender leaves and thyme leaves had the highest antioxidant activity, followed by rosemary stems, rosemary leaves, and lavender stems, and the lavender flowers and thyme stems had the lowest antioxidant activity. The antioxidant activity was correlated with the polyphenol content, although minor deviations were observed. In oil-in-water emulsion, extracts from rosemary leaves and thyme leaves were most effective at retarding oxidation followed by the rosemary stems and thyme flowers. Extracts from thyme flowers and lavender leaves were less effective in the emulsion than predicted by the homogeneous antioxidant assays. This study demonstrated the potential use of plants extract as substitutes for synthetic antioxidants.

Solar cycle evolution of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts and their relation to the slow solar wind

Dipolar streamers are coronal structures formed by open solar flux converging from coronal holes of opposite polarity. Thus the dipolar streamer belt traces the coronal foot print of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and it is strongly associated with the origin of slow solar wind. Pseudostreamers, on the other hand, separate converging regions of open solar flux from coronal holes of the same polarity and do not contain current sheets. They have recently received a great deal of interest as a possible additional source of slow solar wind. Here we add to that growing body of work by using the potential-field source-surface model to determine the occurrence and location of dipolar and pseudostreamers over the last three solar cycles. In addition to providing new information about pseudostreamer morphology, the results help explain why the observations taken during the first Ulysses perihelion pass in 1995 showed noncoincidence between dipolar streamer belt and the locus of slowest flow. We find that Carrington rotation averages of the heliographic latitudes of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts are systematically shifted away from the equator, alternately in opposite directions, with a weak solar cycle periodicity, thus keeping slow wind from the web of combined streamer belts approximately symmetric about the equator. The largest separation of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts occurred close to the Ulysses pass, allowing a unique opportunity to see that slow wind from pseudostreamer belts north of the southward-displaced dipolar belt was responsible for the noncoincident pattern.

A moving mesh approach for modelling avascular tumour growth

A key step in many numerical schemes for time-dependent partial differential equations with moving boundaries is to rescale the problem to a fixed numerical mesh. An alternative approach is to use a moving mesh that can be adapted to focus on specific features of the model. In this paper we present and discuss two different velocity-based moving mesh methods applied to a two-phase model of avascular tumour growth formulated by Breward et al. (2002) J. Math. Biol. 45(2), 125-152. Each method has one moving node which tracks the moving boundary. The first moving mesh method uses a mesh velocity proportional to the boundary velocity. The second moving mesh method uses local conservation of volume fraction of cells (masses). Our results demonstrate that these moving mesh methods produce accurate results, offering higher resolution where desired whilst preserving the balance of fluxes and sources in the governing equations.

Flavonoid-rich fruits and vegetables improve microvascular reactivity and inflammatory status in men at risk of cardiovascular disease – FLAVURS: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Observed associations between increased fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption, particularly those F&Vs that are rich in flavonoids, and vascular health improvements require confirmation in adequately powered randomized controlled trials. OBJECTIVE: This study was designed to measure the dose-response relation between high-flavonoid (HF), low-flavonoid (LF), and habitual F&V intakes and vascular function and other cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk indicators. DESIGN: A single-blind, dose-dependent, parallel randomized controlled dietary intervention study was conducted. Male and female low-F&V consumers who had a ≥1.5-fold increased risk of CVD (n = 174) were randomly assigned to receive an HF F&V, an LF F&V, or a habitual diet, with HF and LF F&V amounts sequentially increasing by 2, 4, and 6 (+2, +4, and +6) portions/d every 6 wk over habitual intakes. Microvascular reactivity (laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis), arterial stiffness [pulse wave velocity, pulse wave analysis (PWA)], 24-h ambulatory blood pressure, and biomarkers of nitric oxide (NO), vascular function, and inflammation were determined at baseline and at 6, 12, and 18 wk. RESULTS: In men, the HF F&V diet increased endothelium-dependent microvascular reactivity (P = 0.017) with +2 portions/d (at 6 wk) and reduced C-reactive protein (P = 0.001), E-selectin (P = 0.0005), and vascular cell adhesion molecule (P = 0.0468) with +4 portions/d (at 12 wk). HF F&Vs increased plasma NO (P = 0.0243) with +4 portions/d (at 12 wk) in the group as a whole. An increase in F&Vs, regardless of flavonoid content in the groups as a whole, mitigated increases in vascular stiffness measured by PWA (P = 0.0065) and reductions in NO (P = 0.0299) in the control group. CONCLUSION: These data support recommendations to increase F&V intake to ≥6 portions daily, with additional benefit from F&Vs that are rich in flavonoids, particularly in men with an increased risk of CVD. This trial was registered at www.controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN47748735.

Galactic cosmic ray modulation near the heliospheric current sheet

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) both over decadal time scales (due to long-term, global HMF variations), and over time scales of a few hours (associated with solar wind structures such as coronal mass ejections or the heliospheric current sheet, HCS). Due to the close association between the HCS, the streamer belt, and the band of slow solar wind, HCS crossings are often associated with corotating interaction regions where fast solar wind catches up and compresses slow solar wind ahead of it. However, not all HCS crossings are associated with strong compressions. In this study we categorize HCS crossings in two ways: Firstly, using the change in magnetic polarity, as either away-to-toward (AT) or toward-to-away (TA) magnetic field directions relative to the Sun and, secondly, using the strength of the associated solar wind compression, determined from the observed plasma density enhancement. For each category, we use superposed epoch analyses to show differences in both solar wind parameters and GCR flux inferred from neutron monitors. For strong-compression HCS crossings, we observe a peak in neutron counts preceding the HCS crossing, followed by a large drop after the crossing, attributable to the so-called ‘snow-plough’ effect. For weak-compression HCS crossings, where magnetic field polarity effects are more readily observable, we instead observe that the neutron counts have a tendency to peak in the away magnetic field sector. By splitting the data by the dominant polarity at each solar polar region, we find that the increase in GCR flux prior to the HCS crossing is primarily from strong compressions in cycles with negative north polar fields due to GCR drift effects. Finally, we report on unexpected differences in GCR behavior between TA weak compressions during opposing polarity cycles.