Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe

Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect sibling’ framework. Crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. This type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. The calibration methods assessed include the commonly used ‘delta’ (change factor) and ‘nudging’ (bias correction) approaches. We focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over Europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. The calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. The choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. Finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. We conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of AOGCMs is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections.

Distribution of esterase activity in porcine ear skin, and the effects of freezing and heat separation

Porcine ear skin is widely used to study skin permeation and absorption of ester compounds, whose permeation and absorption profiles may be directly influenced by in situ skin esterase activity. Importantly, esterase distribution and activity in porcine ear skin following common protocols of skin handling and storage have not been characterised. Thus, we have compared the distribution and hydrolytic activity of esterases in freshly excised, frozen, heated and explanted porcine ear skin. Using an esterase staining kit, esterase activity was found to be localised in the stratum corneum and viable epidermis. Under frozen storage and a common heating protocol of epidermal sheet separation, esterase staining in the skin visibly diminished. This was confirmed by a quantitative assay using HPLC to monitor the hydrolysis of aspirin, in freshly excised, frozen or heated porcine ear skin. Compared to vehicle-only control, the rate of aspirin hydrolysis was approximately three-fold higher in the presence of freshly excised skin, but no different in the presence of frozen or heated skin. Therefore, frozen and heat-separated porcine ear skin should not be used to study the permeation of ester-containing permeants, in particular co-drugs and pro-drugs, whose hydrolysis or degradation can be modulated by skin esterases.

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2 to 5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

Power allocation strategies for distributed space-time codes in two-way relay networks

We study a two-way relay network (TWRN), where distributed space-time codes are constructed across multiple relay terminals in an amplify-and-forward mode. Each relay transmits a scaled linear combination of its received symbols and their conjugates,with the scaling factor chosen based on automatic gain control. We consider equal power allocation (EPA) across the relays, as well as the optimal power allocation (OPA) strategy given access to instantaneous channel state information (CSI). For EPA, we derive an upper bound on the pairwise-error-probability (PEP), from which we prove that full diversity is achieved in TWRNs. This result is in contrast to one-way relay networks, in which case a maximum diversity order of only unity can be obtained. When instantaneous CSI is available at the relays, we show that the OPA which minimizes the conditional PEP of the worse link can be cast as a generalized linear fractional program, which can be solved efficiently using the Dinkelback-type procedure.We also prove that, if the sum-power of the relay terminals is constrained, then the OPA will activate at most two relays.

High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis is an efficient tool to genotype EMS mutants in complex crop genomes

Background: Targeted Induced Loci Lesions IN Genomes (TILLING) is increasingly being used to generate and identify mutations in target genes of crop genomes. TILLING populations of several thousand lines have been generated in a number of crop species including Brassica rapa. Genetic analysis of mutants identified by TILLING requires an efficient, high-throughput and cost effective genotyping method to track the mutations through numerous generations. High resolution melt (HRM) analysis has been used in a number of systems to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion/deletions (IN/DELs) enabling the genotyping of different types of samples. HRM is ideally suited to high-throughput genotyping of multiple TILLING mutants in complex crop genomes. To date it has been used to identify mutants and genotype single mutations. The aim of this study was to determine if HRM can facilitate downstream analysis of multiple mutant lines identified by TILLING in order to characterise allelic series of EMS induced mutations in target genes across a number of generations in complex crop genomes. Results: We demonstrate that HRM can be used to genotype allelic series of mutations in two genes, BraA.CAX1a and BraA.MET1.a in Brassica rapa. We analysed 12 mutations in BraA.CAX1.a and five in BraA.MET1.a over two generations including a back-cross to the wild-type. Using a commercially available HRM kit and the Lightscanner™ system we were able to detect mutations in heterozygous and homozygous states for both genes. Conclusions: Using HRM genotyping on TILLING derived mutants, it is possible to generate an allelic series of mutations within multiple target genes rapidly. Lines suitable for phenotypic analysis can be isolated approximately 8-9 months (3 generations) from receiving M3 seed of Brassica rapa from the RevGenUK TILLING service.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

In vitro inhibitory effect of trichostatin A on canine grade 3 mast cell tumor

Mast cell tumor (MCT) is one of the most prevalent neoplasms that affect skin and soft tissue in dogs. Because mast cell tumors present a great variety of clinical appearance and behavior, their treatment becomes a challenge. Trichostatin A (TSA), an antifungal antibiotic, has shown inhibitory effects on the proliferation and induction of apoptosis in various types of cancer cells. In order to evaluate the potential of trichostatin A as a therapeutic drug, cells of grade 3 MCT were cultured and treated with concentrations of 1 nM to 400 nM of TSA. MTT assay and trypan blue exclusion assays were performed to estimate cell growth and cell viability, and cell cycle analysis was evaluated. TSA treatment showed a reduction in numbers of viable cells and an increase of cell death by apoptosis. The cell cycle analysis showed an increase of hypodiploid cells and a reduction of G0/G1 and G2/M -phases. According to these results, trichostatin A may be an interesting potential chemotherapeutic agent for the treatment of canine MCT.

Differential expression of apoptosis-related genes from death receptor pathway in chronic myeloproliferative diseases

Background Chronic myeloproliferative disorders (MPDs) are clonal haematopoietic stem cell malignancies characterised by an accumulation of mature myeloid cells in bone marrow and peripheral blood. Deregulation of the apoptotic machinery may be associated with MPD physiopathology. Aims To evaluate expression of death receptors` family members, mononuclear cell apoptosis resistance, and JAK2 allele burden. Subjects and Methods Bone marrow haematopoietic progenitor CD34 cells were separated using the Ficoll-hypaque protocol followed by the Miltenyi CD34 isolation kit, and peripheral blood leukocytes were separated by the Haes-Steril method. Total RNA was extracted by the Trizol method, the High Capacity Kit was used to synthesise cDNA, and real-time PCR was performed using SybrGreen in ABIPrism 7500 equipment. The results of gene expression quantification are given as 2(-Delta Delta Ct). The JAK2 V617F mutation was detected by real-time allelic discrimination PCR assay. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were isolated by the Ficoll-hypaque protocol and cultured in the presence of apoptosis inducers. Results In CD34 cells, there was mRNA overexpression for fas, faim and c-flip in polycythaemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythaemia (ET) and primary myelofibrosis (PMF), as well as fasl in PMF, and dr4 levels were increased in ET. In leukocytes, fas, c-flip and trail levels were increased in PV, and dr5 expression was decreased in ET. There was an association between dr5 and fasl expression and JAK2V617F mutation. PBMCs from patients with PV, ET or PMF showed resistance to apoptosis inducers. Conclusions The results indicate deregulation of apoptosis gene expression, which may be associated with MPD pathogenesis leading to accumulation of myeloid cells in MPDs.

Diagnostic reference levels for the most frequent radiological examinations carried out in Brazil

Objectives. A large-scale survey of doses to patients undergoing the most frequent radiological examinations was carried out in health services in Sao Paulo (347 radiological examinations per 1 000 inhabitants), the most populous Brazilian state. Methods. A postal dosimetric kit with thermoluminescence dosimeters was used to evaluate the entrance surface dose (ESD) to patients. A stratified sampling technique applied to the national health database furnished important data on the distribution of equipment and the annual number of examinations. Chest, head (skull and sinus), and spine (cervical, thoracic, and lumbar) examinations were included in the trial. A total of 83 rooms and 868 patients were included, and 1 415 values of ESD were measured. Results. The data show large coefficients of variation in tube charge, giving rise to large variations in ESD values. Also, a series of high ESD values associated with unnecessary localizing fluoroscopy were detected. Diagnostic reference levels were determined, based on the 75th percentile (third quartile) of the ESD distributions. For adult patients, the diagnostic reference levels achieved are very similar to those obtained in international surveys. However, the situation is different for pediatric patients: the ESD values found in this survey are twice as large as the international recommendations for chest radiographs of children. Conclusions. Despite the reduced number of ESD values and rooms for the pediatric patient group, it is recommended that practices in chest examinations be revised and that specific national reference doses and image quality be established after a broader survey is carried out.

RNA Isolation method for polysaccharide rich algae: agar producing Gracilaria tenuistipitata (Rhodophyta)

RNA isolation is essential to study gene expression at the molecular level. However, RNA isolation is difficult in organisms (plants and algae) that contain large amounts of polysaccharides, which co-precipitate with RNA. Currently, there is no commercial kit available, specifically for the isolation of high-quality RNA from these organisms. Furthermore, because of the large amounts of polysaccharides, the common protocols for RNA isolation usually result in poor yields when applied to algae. Here we describe a simple method for RNA isolation from the marine red macroalga Gracilaria tenuistipitata var. liui Zhang et Xia (Rhodophyta), which can be applied to other plants and algae.

Inlärning och öppet-fält aktivitet hos förskolebarn

The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of learning on open-field activity among pre-school children varying from 3 to 5 years old. Altogether 25 children, 13 girls and 12 boys, entered the test from three different preschools in Dalarna. Six of these children represented the control group. The children were asked to learn 2 tasks, 1 visual memory task and 1 spatial constructing-kit task. Before, between and after the tasks, the children were allowed to move freely in the open field. The control group did not solve any learning tasks and only entered the open field, which was divided into 18 equally large squares, where the children’s activities were observed. The children’s learning times as well as their spontaneous open-field activity and wall-seeking behaviour were registered. The result showed as a general rule that the learning time was reduced between each session. However, the visual memory task increased the children’s spontaneous open-field behaviour more and decreased their wall seeking to a greater extent than the spatial-construction learning task.

Rapport från/Report from IEA Task-14 mötet/meeting on solar heating system, Hameln Tyskland/Germany August 1992

Participation as observer at the meeting of Task 14 of IEA's Solar Heating and Cooling Projects held in Hameln, Germany has led to greater understanding of interesting developments underway in several countries. This will be of use during the development of small scale systems suitable for Swedish conditions. A summary of the work carried out by the working groups within Task 14 is given, with emphasis on the Domestic Hot Water group. Experiences of low-flow systems from several countries are related, and the conclusion is drawn that the maximum theoretical possible increase in performance of 20% has not been achieved due to poor heat exchangers and poor stratification in the storage tanks. Positive developments in connecting tubes and pumps is noted. Further participation as observer in Task 14 meetings is desired, and is looked on favourably by the members of the group. Another conclusion is that SERC should carry on with work on Swedish storage tanks, with emphasis on better stratification and heat exchangers, and possible modelling of system components. Finally a German Do-it-Vourself kit is described and judged in comparison with prefabricated models and Swedish Do-it-Yourself kits.