The use of expert systems for decision making in organizations

The research described in this thesis investigates three issues related to the use of expert systems for decision making in organizations. These are the effectiveness of ESs when used in different roles, to replace a human decision maker or to advise a human decision maker, the users' behaviourand opinions towards using an expertadvisory system and, the possibility of organization-wide deployment of expert systems and the role of an ES in different organizational levels. The research was based on the development of expert systems within a business game environment, a simulation of a manufacturing company. This was chosen to give more control over the `experiments' than would be possible in a real organization. An expert system (EXGAME) was developed based on a structure derived from Anthony's three levels of decision making to manage the simulated company in the business game itself with little user intervention. On the basis of EXGAME, an expert advisory system (ADGAME) was built to help game players to make better decisions in managing the game company. EXGAME and ADGAME are thus two expert systems in the same domain performing different roles; it was found that ADGAME had, in places, to be different from EXGAME, not simply an extension of it. EXGAME was tested several times against human rivals and was evaluated by measuring its performance. ADGAME was also tested by different users and was assessed by measuring the users' performance and analysing their opinions towards it as a helpful decision making aid. The results showed that an expert system was able to replace a human at the operational level, but had difficulty at the strategic level. It also showed the success of the organization-wide deployment of expert systems in this simulated company.

The interaction between master production scheduling and detailed capacity requirements planning : closing the loop in manufacturing resource planning (MRPII) systems

The widespread implementation of Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRPII) systems in this country and abroad and the reported dissatisfaction with their use formed the initial basis of this piece of research which concentrates on the fundamental theory and design of the Closed Loop MRPII system itself. The dissertation concentrates on two key aspects namely; how Master Production Scheduling is carried out in differing business environments and how well the `closing of the loop' operates by checking the capcity requirements of the different levels of plans within an organisation. The main hypothesis which is tested is that in U.K. manufacturing industry, resource checks are either not being carried out satisfactorily or they are not being fed back to the appropriate plan in a timely fashion. The research methodology employed involved initial detailed investigations into Master Scheduling and capacity planning in eight diverse manufacturing companies. This was followed by a nationwide survey of users in 349 companies, a survey of all the major suppliers of Production Management software in the U.K. and an analysis of the facilities offered by current software packages. The main conclusion which is drawn is that the hypothesis is proved in the majority of companies in that only just over 50% of companies are attempting Resource and Capacity Planning and only 20% are successfully feeding back CRP information to `close the loop'. Various causative factors are put forward and remedies are suggested.

The application of expert systems techniques in the design of durable concrete

This thesis describes work done exploring the application of expert system techniques to the domain of designing durable concrete. The nature of concrete durability design is described and some problems from the domain are discussed. Some related work on expert systems in concrete durability are described. Various implementation languages are considered - PROLOG and OPS5, and rejected in favour of a shell - CRYSTAL3 (later CRYSTAL4). Criteria for useful expert system shells in the domain are discussed. CRYSTAL4 is evaluated in the light of these criteria. Modules in various sub-domains (mix-design, sulphate attack, steel-corrosion and alkali aggregate reaction) are developed and organised under a BLACKBOARD system (called DEX). Extensions to the CRYSTAL4 modules are considered for different knowledge representations. These include LOTUS123 spreadsheets implementing models incorporating some of the mathematical knowledge in the domain. Design databases are used to represent tabular design knowledge. Hypertext representations of the original building standards texts are proposed as a tool for providing a well structured and extensive justification/help facility. A standardised approach to module development is proposed using hypertext development as a structured basis for expert systems development. Some areas of deficient domain knowledge are highlighted particularly in the use of data from mathematical models and in gaps and inconsistencies in the original knowledge source Digests.

Adaptive electrical signal post-processing in optical communications systems

Improving bit error rates in optical communication systems is a difficult and important problem. The error correction must take place at high speed and be extremely accurate. We show the feasibility of using hardware implementable machine learning techniques. This may enable some error correction at the speed required.

Business information systems:technology, development and management in the E-business

Information technology is at the centre of today’s business environment. The increasing importance of e-commerce and the integration of information systems in all areas of a business means it is crucial for managers to understand and implement IS (information systems). This major text, now in its second edition, provides the skills and knowledge necessary to choose the right systems, and to develop and manage them effectively. Business Information Systems: Technology, Development and Management assumes no prior knowledge of IS or IT, and emphasises the importance of IS to management decision making. It takes a 3 part structure: Part One covers hardware and software technologies; Part Two looks at information systems analysis and design; and Part Three describes the strategic management of IS. This successful format allows each section to be studied alongside individual modules, and enables students to focus clearly on specific areas and use the book for more than one course. This book is suitable for college students, undergraduate degree and postgraduate students taking courses with modules in the practical IT skills of selection, implementation, management and use of BIS. The practical sections are also of use to managers in industry involved in the development and use of IS.

Minimizing nasty surprises with better informed decision-making in self-adaptive systems

Designers of self-adaptive systems often formulate adaptive design decisions, making unrealistic or myopic assumptions about the system's requirements and environment. The decisions taken during this formulation are crucial for satisfying requirements. In environments which are characterized by uncertainty and dynamism, deviation from these assumptions is the norm and may trigger 'surprises'. Our method allows designers to make explicit links between the possible emergence of surprises, risks and design trade-offs. The method can be used to explore the design decisions for self-adaptive systems and choose among decisions that better fulfil (or rather partially fulfil) non-functional requirements and address their trade-offs. The analysis can also provide designers with valuable input for refining the adaptation decisions to balance, for example, resilience (i.e. Satisfiability of non-functional requirements and their trade-offs) and stability (i.e. Minimizing the frequency of adaptation). The objective is to provide designers of self adaptive systems with a basis for multi-dimensional what-if analysis to revise and improve the understanding of the environment and its effect on non-functional requirements and thereafter decision-making. We have applied the method to a wireless sensor network for flood prediction. The application shows that the method gives rise to questions that were not explicitly asked before at design-time and assists designers in the process of risk-aware, what-if and trade-off analysis.

Convergence and knowledge processing in multi-agent systems

Multi-agent systems are complex systems comprised of multiple intelligent agents that act either independently or in cooperation with one another. Agent-based modelling is a method for studying complex systems like economies, societies, ecologies etc. Due to their complexity, very often mathematical analysis is limited in its ability to analyse such systems. In this case, agent-based modelling offers a practical, constructive method of analysis. The objective of this book is to shed light on some emergent properties of multi-agent systems. The authors focus their investigation on the effect of knowledge exchange on the convergence of complex, multi-agent systems.

Channel estimation and compensation in chromatic dispersion limited optical fast OFDM systems

We experimentally investigate the channel estimation and compensation in a chromatic dispersion (CD) limited 20Gbit/s optical fast orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (F-OFDM) system with up to 840km transmission. It is shown that symmetric extension based guard interval (GI) is required to enable CD compensation using one-tap equalizers. As few as one optical F-OFDM symbol with four and six pilot tones per symbol can achieve near-optimal channel estimation and compensation performance for 600km and 840km respectively.

Auto-solitons guided by in-line nonlinear optical loop mirrors in dispersion-managed communication systems

Summary form only given. Both dispersion management and the use of a nonlinear optical loop mirror (NOLM) as a saturable absorber can improve the performance of a soliton-based communication system. Dispersion management gives the benefits of low average dispersion while allowing pulses with higher powers to propagate, which helps to suppress Gordon-Haus timing jitter without sacrificing the signal-to-noise ratio. The NOLM suppresses the buildup of amplifier spontaneous emission noise and background dispersive radiation which, if allowed to interact with the soliton, can lead to its breakup. We examine optical pulse propagation in dispersion-managed (DM) transmission system with periodically inserted in-line NOLMs. To describe basic features of the signal transmission in such lines, we develop a simple theory based on a variational approach involving Gaussian trial functions. It, has already been proved that the variational method is an extremely effective tool for description of DM solitons. In the work we manage to include in the variational description the point action of the NOLM on pulse parameters, assuming that the Gaussian pulse shape is inherently preserved by propagation through the NOLM. The obtained results are verified by direct numerical simulations