The origin of the European Medieval Warm Period"

Proxy records and results of a three dimensional climate model show that European summer temperatures roughly a millennium ago were comparable to those of the last 25 years of the 20th century, supporting the existence of a summer "Medieval Warm Period" in Europe. Those two relatively mild periods were separated by a rather cold era, often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Our modelling results suggest that the warm summer conditions during the early second millennium compared to the climate background state of the 13th–18th century are due to a large extent to the long term cooling induced by changes in land-use in Europe. During the last 200 years, the effect of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, which was partly levelled off by that of sulphate aerosols, has dominated the climate history over Europe in summer. This induces a clear warming during the last 200 years, allowing summer temperature during the last 25 years to reach back the values simulated for the early second millennium. Volcanic and solar forcing plays a weaker role in this comparison between the last 25 years of the 20th century and the early second millennium. Our hypothesis appears consistent with proxy records but modelling results have to be weighted against the existing uncertainties in the external forcing factors, in particular related to land-use changes, and against the uncertainty of the regional climate sensitivity. Evidence for winter is more equivocal than for summer. The forced response in the model displays a clear temperature maximum at the end of the 20th century. However, the uncertainties are too large to state that this period is the warmest of the past millennium in Europe during winter.

The Impact of Uncertainty in the AIDS Incubation Period on Reconstructions of the HIV Epidemic

Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.

Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and its Impact on Backcalculation

We analyze three sets of doubly-censored cohort data on incubation times, estimating incubation distributions using semi-parametric methods and assessing the comparability of the estimates. Weibull models appear to be inappropriate for at least one of the cohorts, and the estimates for the different cohorts are substantially different. We use these estimates as inputs for backcalculation, using a nonparametric method based on maximum penalized likelihood. The different incubations all produce fits to the reported AIDS counts that are as good as the fit from a nonstationary incubation distribution that models treatment effects, but the estimated infection curves are very different. We also develop a method for estimating nonstationarity as part of the backcalculation procedure and find that such estimates also depend very heavily on the assumed incubation distribution. We conclude that incubation distributions are so uncertain that meaningful error bounds are difficult to place on backcalculated estimates and that backcalculation may be too unreliable to be used without being supplemented by other sources of information in HIV prevalence and incidence.

Ovine Enzootic Abortion (OEA): a comparison of antibody responses in vaccinated and naturally-infected swiss sheep over a two year period

BACKGROUND: Prevention and control of ovine enzootic abortion (OEA) can be achieved by application of a live vaccine. In this study, five sheep flocks with different vaccination and infection status were serologically tested using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) specific for Chlamydophila (Cp.) abortus over a two-year time period. RESULTS: Sheep in Flock A with recent OEA history had high antibody values after vaccination similar to Flock C with natural Cp. abortus infections. In contrast, OEA serology negative sheep (Flock E) showed individual animal-specific immunoreactions after vaccination. Antibody levels of vaccinated ewes in Flock B ranged from negative to positive two and three years after vaccination, respectively. Positive antibody values in the negative control Flock D (without OEA or vaccination) are probably due to asymptomatic intestinal infections with Cp. abortus. Excretion of the attenuated strain of Cp. abortus used in the live vaccine through the eye was not observed in vaccinated animals of Flock E. CONCLUSION: The findings of our study indicate that, using serology, no distinction can be made between vaccinated and naturally infected sheep. As a result, confirmation of a negative OEA status in vaccinated animals by serology cannot be determined.

A systematic review of the survival and complication rates of resin-bonded bridges after an observation period of at least 5 years

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the 5-year survival of resin-bonded bridges (RBBs) and to describe the incidence of technical and biological complications. METHODS: An electronic Medline search complemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on RBBs with a mean follow-up time of at least 5 years. Patients had to have been examined clinically at the follow-up visit. Assessment of the identified studies and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poissons regression models to obtain summary estimates of 5-year proportions. RESULTS: The search provided 6110 titles and 214 abstracts. Full-text analysis was performed for 93 articles, resulting in 17 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated an estimated survival of RBBs of 87.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 81.6-91.9%) after 5 years. The most frequent complication was debonding (loss of retention), which occurred in 19.2% (95% CI: 13.8-26.3%) of RBBs over an observation period of 5 years. The annual debonding rate for RBBs placed on posterior teeth (5.03%) tended to be higher than that for anterior-placed RBBs (3.05%). This difference, however, did not reach statistical significance (P=0.157). Biological complications, like caries on abutments and RBBs lost due to periodontitis, occurred in 1.5% of abutments and 2.1% of RBBs, respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite the high survival rate of RBBs, technical complications like debonding are frequent. This in turn means that a substantial amount of extra chair time may be needed following the incorporation of RBBs. There is thus an urgent need for studies with a follow-up time of 10 years or more, to evaluate the long-term outcomes.

A new instrument for pain assessment in the immediate postoperative period

Perceptual-cognitive impairment after general anaesthesia may affect the ability to reliably report pain severity with the standard visual analog scale (VAS). To minimise these limitations, we developed 'PAULA the PAIN-METER' (PAULA): it has five coloured emoticon faces on the forefront, it is twice as long as a standard VAS scale, and patients use a slider to mark their pain experience. Forty-eight postoperative patients rated descriptive pain terms on PAULA and on a standard VAS immediately after admission and before discharge from the postanaesthesia care unit. Visual acuity was determined before both assessments. The values obtained with PAULA showed less variance than those obtained with the standard VAS, even at the first assessment, where only 23% of the patients had regained their visual acuity. Furthermore, the deviations of the absolute VAS values in individual patients for each descriptive pain term were significantly smaller with PAULA than with the standard VAS.

Differential expression of ABC transporters and their regulatory genes during lactation and dry period in bovine mammary tissue

ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters play a pivotal role in human physiology, and mutations in these genes often result in severe hereditary diseases. ABC transporters are expressed in the bovine mammary gland but their physiological role in this organ remains elusive. Based on findings in the context of human disorders we speculated that candidate ABC transporters are implicated in lipid and cholesterol transport in the mammary gland. Therefore we investigated the expression pattern of selected genes that are associated with sterol transport in lactating and nonlactating mammary glands of dairy cows. mRNA levels from mammary gland biopsies taken during lactation and in the first and second week of the dry period were analysed using quantitative PCR. Five ABC transporter genes, namely ABCA1, ABCA7, ABCG1, ABCG2 and ABCG5, their regulating genes LXRalpha, PPARgamma, SREBP1 and the milk proteins lactoferrin and alpha-lactalbumin were assessed. A significantly enhanced expression in the dry period was observed for ABCA1 while a significant decrease of expression in this period was detected for ABCA7, ABCG2, SREBP1 and alpha-lactalbumin. ABCG1, ABCG5, LXRalpha, PPARgamma and lactoferrin expression was not altered between lactation and dry period. These results indicate that candidate ABC transporters involved in lipid and cholesterol transport show differential mRNA expression between lactation and the dry period. This may be due to physiological changes in the mammary gland such as immigration of macrophages or the accumulation of fat due to the loss of liquid in the involuting mammary gland. The current mRNA expression analysis of transporters in the mammary gland is the prerequisite for elucidating novel molecular mechanisms underlying cholesterol and lipid transfer into milk.

Periodontal disease progression in subjects with orofacial clefts over a 25-year follow-up period

AIMS: To assess rates of periodontal disease progression in subjects with cleft lip, alveolus and palate (CLAP) over a 25-year period without regular maintenance care in a specialist setting and to compare those with those of subjects without alveolar clefts, i.e. cleft lip (CL) or cleft palate (CP). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ten subjects with CLAP and 10 subjects with CL/CP were examined in 1979, 1987, 1993 and 2004. Probing pocket depth (PPD), clinical attachment level (CAL), bleeding on probing (BoP) and plaque control record (PCR) scores were recorded in all 20 subjects. RESULTS: High plaque and BoP scores were recorded at all examinations in both groups. Over 25 years, a statistically significant loss of mean full-mouth CAL of 1.52 +/- 0.12 mm (SD) and 1.66 +/- 0.15 mm occurred in the CLAP and CL/CP group respectively (p<0.05). A statistically significant increase (p<0.05) in mean full-mouth PPD of 0.35 +/- 0.12 mm was observed in the CL/CP group, whereas only a trend for a mean full-mouth increase in PPD of 0.09 +/- 0.11 mm was observed in the CLAP group. In subjects with CLAP, a statistically significant increase (p<0.05) in PPD of 0.92 +/- 1.13 mm at cleft sites was observed compared with that of 0.17 +/- 0.76 mm at control sites. With respect to CAL, the loss at the corresponding sites amounted to 2.71 +/- 1.46 and to 2.27 +/- 1.62 mm, respectively (p=0.36). CONCLUSIONS: When stringent and well-defined supportive periodontal therapy was not provided, subjects with orofacial clefts were at high risk for periodontal disease progression. Over 25 years, alveolar cleft sites tended to have more periodontal tissue destruction compared with control sites.

A systematic review of the survival and complication rates of implant supported fixed dental prostheses with cantilever extensions after an observation period of at least 5 years

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this systematic review was to assess the survival rates of short-span implant-supported cantilever fixed dental prostheses (ICFDPs) and the incidence of technical and biological complications after an observation period of at least 5 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic MEDLINE search supplemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective or retrospective cohort studies reporting data of at least 5 years on ICFDPs. Five- and 10-year estimates for failure and complication rates were calculated using standard or random-effect Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: The five studies eligible for the meta-analysis yielded an estimated 5- and 10-year ICFDP cumulative survival rate of 94.3% [95 percent confidence interval (95% CI): 84.1-98%] and 88.9% (95% CI: 70.8-96.1%), respectively. Five-year estimates for peri-implantitis were 5.4% (95% CI: 2-14.2%) and 9.4% (95% CI: 3.3-25.4%) at implant and prosthesis levels, respectively. Veneer fracture (5-year estimate: 10.3%; 95% CI: 3.9-26.6%) and screw loosening (5-year estimate: 8.2%; 95% CI: 3.9-17%) represented the most common complications, followed by loss of retention (5-year estimate: 5.7%; 95% CI: 1.9-16.5%) and abutment/screw fracture (5-year estimate: 2.1%; 95% CI: 0.9-5.1%). Implant fracture was rare (5-year estimate: 1.3%; 95% CI: 0.2-8.3%); no framework fracture was reported. Radiographic bone level changes did not yield statistically significant differences either at the prosthesis or at the implant levels when comparing ICFDPs with short-span implant-supported end-abutment fixed dental prostheses. CONCLUSIONS: ICFDPs represent a valid treatment modality; no detrimental effects can be expected on bone levels due to the presence of a cantilever extension per se.