Entrepreneurship and the informal economy: a study of Ukraine's hidden enterprise culture

How many entrepreneurs start-up their business ventures conducting some or all of their trade in the informal economy? The aim of this paper is to answer this key question that has been seldom addressed using data from 600 face-to-face structured interviews conducted in Ukraine in late 2005 and early 2006. Analyzing the 331 entrepreneurs identified (i.e., individuals starting-up an enterprise in the past three years), just 10 percent operate on a wholly legitimate basis, while 39 percent have a license to trade and/or have registered their business but conduct a portion of their trade in the informal economy, and 51 percent operate unregistered enterprises and conduct all of their trade on an off-the-books basis. Given that some 90 percent of all business start-ups operate partially or wholly in the informal economy, and that 40 percent of all respondents depend on the informal economy as either their principal or secondary contributor to their livelihoods, the paper concludes by considering the wider implications of these findings both for further research and public policy.

Inference and optimization of real edges on sparse graphs:A statistical physics perspective

Inference and optimization of real-value edge variables in sparse graphs are studied using the Bethe approximation and replica method of statistical physics. Equilibrium states of general energy functions involving a large set of real edge variables that interact at the network nodes are obtained in various cases. When applied to the representative problem of network resource allocation, efficient distributed algorithms are also devised. Scaling properties with respect to the network connectivity and the resource availability are found, and links to probabilistic Bayesian approximation methods are established. Different cost measures are considered and algorithmic solutions in the various cases are devised and examined numerically. Simulation results are in full agreement with the theory. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Inference by replication in densely connected systems

An efficient Bayesian inference method for problems that can be mapped onto dense graphs is presented. The approach is based on message passing where messages are averaged over a large number of replicated variable systems exposed to the same evidential nodes. An assumption about the symmetry of the solutions is required for carrying out the averages; here we extend the previous derivation based on a replica-symmetric- (RS)-like structure to include a more complex one-step replica-symmetry-breaking-like (1RSB-like) ansatz. To demonstrate the potential of the approach it is employed for studying critical properties of the Ising linear perceptron and for multiuser detection in code division multiple access (CDMA) under different noise models. Results obtained under the RS assumption in the noncritical regime give rise to a highly efficient signal detection algorithm in the context of CDMA; while in the critical regime one observes a first-order transition line that ends in a continuous phase transition point. Finite size effects are also observed. While the 1RSB ansatz is not required for the original problems, it was applied to the CDMA signal detection problem with a more complex noise model that exhibits RSB behavior, resulting in an improvement in performance. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Inference by belief propagation in composite systems

We devise a message passing algorithm for probabilistic inference in composite systems, consisting of a large number of variables, that exhibit weak random interactions among all variables and strong interactions with a small subset of randomly chosen variables; the relative strength of the two interactions is controlled by a free parameter. We examine the performance of the algorithm numerically on a number of systems of this type for varying mixing parameter values.

A new variational radial basis function approximation for inference in multivariate diffusions

In this paper we present a radial basis function based extension to a recently proposed variational algorithm for approximate inference for diffusion processes. Inference, for state and in particular (hyper-) parameters, in diffusion processes is a challenging and crucial task. We show that the new radial basis function approximation based algorithm converges to the original algorithm and has beneficial characteristics when estimating (hyper-)parameters. We validate our new approach on a nonlinear double well potential dynamical system.

Variational inference for diffusion processes

Diffusion processes are a family of continuous-time continuous-state stochastic processes that are in general only partially observed. The joint estimation of the forcing parameters and the system noise (volatility) in these dynamical systems is a crucial, but non-trivial task, especially when the system is nonlinear and multimodal. We propose a variational treatment of diffusion processes, which allows us to compute type II maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters by simple gradient techniques and which is computationally less demanding than most MCMC approaches. We also show how a cheap estimate of the posterior over the parameters can be constructed based on the variational free energy.

Informal boundary-spanning links and networks in successful technological innovation

The sources of ideas embodied within successful technological innovation has been a subject of interest in many studies since the 1950s. This research suggests that sources external to the innovating organisation account for between one and two-thirds of the inputs important to the innovation process. In addition, studies have long highlighted the important role played by the personal boundary-spanning relationships of engineers and scientists as a channel for the transference of such inputs. However, research concerning the role and nature of personal boundary-spanning links in the innovation process have either been primarily structurally orientated, seeking to map out the informal networks of scientists and engineers, or more typically, anecdotal. The objective of this research was to reveal and build upon our knowledge of the role, nature and importance of informal exchange activity in the innovation process. In order to achieve this, an empirical study was undertaken to determine the informal sources, channels and mechanisms employed in the development of thirty five award-winning innovations. Through the adoption of the network perspective, the multiple sources and pluralistic patterns of collaboration and communication in the innovation process were systematically explored. This approach provided a framework that allowed for the detailed study of both the individual dyadic links and morphology of the innovation action-sets in which these dyads were embedded. The research found, for example, that the mobilisation of boundary-spanning links and networks was an important or critical factor in nineteen (54%) of the development projects. Of these, informal boundary-spanning exchange activity was considered to be important or critical in eight (23%).

Coherence and understanding in informal conversations between native and non-native speakers of English

This study investigates informal conversations between native English speakers and international students living and studying in the UK. 10 NNS participants recorded themselves during conversations with native speakers. The audio-recordings were transcribed and a fine-grained, qualitative analysis was employed to examine how the participants jointly achieved both coherence and understanding in the conversations, and more specifically how the NNSs contributed to this achievement. The key areas of investigation focused on features of topic management, such as topic initiations, changes and transitions, and on the impact which any communicative difficulties may have on the topical continuity of the conversations. The data suggested that these conversations flowed freely and coherently, and were marked by a relative scarcity of the communicative difficulties often associated with NS-NNS interactions. Moreover, language difficulties were found to have minimal impact on the topic development of the conversations. Unlike most previous research in the field, the data further indicated that the NNSs were able to make active contributions to the initiation and change of topics, and to employ a range of strategies to manage these effectively and coherently. The study considers the implications which the findings may have for teaching and learning, for second language acquisition research, and for non-native speakers everywhere.

Interaction between formal and informal sector credit:new evidence from India

Using a new pan-Indian data set, we examine the factors that potentially influence joint access to formal and informal credit markets. Our results are consistent with the literature and bring some new factors influencing access to credit to the fore.

Topic continuity in informal conversations between native and non-native speakers of English

Topic management by non-native speakers (NNSs) during informal conversations has received comparatively little attention from researchers, and receives surprisingly little attention in second language learning and teaching. This article reports on one of the topic management strategies employed by international students during informal, social interactions with native-speaker peers, exploring the process of maintaining topic continuity following temporary suspensions of topics. The concept of side sequences is employed to illustrate the nature of different types of topic suspension, as well as the process of jointly negotiating a return to the topic. Extracts from the conversations show that such sequences were not exclusively occasioned by language difficulties, and that the non-native speaker participants were able to effect successful returns to the main topic of the conversations.

A simulation of an ERP implementation with informal processes

This paper presents a discrete event simulation study to examine tenancy service performance in a shopping centre. The study aims to provide an understanding of how informal management mechanisms could enhance existing ERP systems. The research shows the potential benefits of combining the traditional strengths of ERP in providing better performance in terms of efficiency with the ability to react with flexibility to customer's requests. © 2012 SIMULATION COUNCILS, INC.

Information and behavioural instruction along the health-care pathway:the perspective of people undergoing hernia repair surgery and the role of formal and informal information sources

Provision of information and behavioural instruction has been demonstrated to improve recovery after surgery. However, patients draw on a range of information sources and it is important to establish which sources patients use and how this influences perceptions and behaviour as they progress along the surgical pathway. In this qualitative, exploratory and longitudinal study, the use of information and instruction were explored from the perspective of people undergoing inguinal hernia repair surgery. Seven participants undergoing inguinal hernia repair surgery were interviewed using semi-structured interviews 2 weeks before surgery and 2 weeks and 4 months post-surgery. Nineteen interviews were conducted in total. Topic guides included sources of knowledge, reasons for help-seeking and opting for surgery and factors influencing return to activity. Data were analysed thematically according to Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Participants sought information from a range of sources, focusing on informal information sources before surgery and using information and instruction from health-care professionals post-surgery. This information influenced behaviours including deciding to undergo surgery, use of pain medication and returning to usual activity. Anxiety and help-seeking resulted when unexpected post-surgical events occurred such as extensive bruising. Findings were consistent with psychological and sociological theories. Overall, participants were positive about the information and instruction they received but expressed a desire for more timely information on post-operative adverse events.