The effect of nonlinearity on the variational assimilation of satellite observations using a simple column model

Cloud imagery is not currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extract the type of dynamical information that experienced forecasters have extracted subjectively for many years. For example, rapidly developing mid-latitude cyclones have characteristic signatures in the cloud imagery that are most fully appreciated from a sequence of images rather than from a single image. The Met Office is currently developing a technique to extract dynamical development information from satellite imagery using their full incremental 4D-Var (four-dimensional variational data assimilation) system. We investigate a simplified form of this technique in a fully nonlinear framework. We convert information on the vertical wind field, w(z), and profiles of temperature, T(z, t), and total water content, qt (z, t), as functions of height, z, and time, t, to a single brightness temperature by defining a 2D (vertical and time) variational assimilation testbed. The profiles of w, T and qt are updated using a simple vertical advection scheme. We define a basic cloud scheme to obtain the fractional cloud amount and, when combined with the temperature field, we convert this information into a brightness temperature, having developed a simple radiative transfer scheme. With the exception of some matrix inversion routines, all our code is developed from scratch. Throughout the development process we test all aspects of our 2D assimilation system, and then run identical twin experiments to try and recover information on the vertical velocity, from a sequence of observations of brightness temperature. This thesis contains a comprehensive description of our nonlinear models and assimilation system, and the first experimental results.

Colonisation of the chicken caecum by afimbriate and aflagellate derivatives of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis

A semi-quantitative cloacal-swab method was used as an indirect measure of caecal colonisation of one-day old and five-day old chicks after oral dosing with wild-type Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis PT4 and,genetically defined isogenic derivatives lacking the ability to elaborate flagella or fimbriae. Birds of both ages were readily and persistently colonised by all strains although there war a decline in shedding by the older birds after about 21 days. There were no significant differences in shedding of wild-type or mutants in single-dose experiments. In competition experiments, in which five-day old birds were dosed orally with wild-type and mutants together, shedding of non-motile derivatives was significantly lower than wild-type, At 35 days post infection, birds were sacrificed and direct counts of mutants and wild-type from each caecum were determined. Whilst there appeared to be poor correlation between direct counts and the indirect swab method, the overall trends shown by these methods of assessment indicated that flagella and not fimbriae were important in caecal colonisation in these models. Crown Copyright (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

A national security strategy for England: Matthew Sutcliffe, the Earl of Essex, and the Cadiz Expedition of 1596

The English cleric Matthew Sutcliffe arguably produced the first comprehensive security concept in history. It had at its centre the war between England and Spain (1585-1604), and Sutcliffe advocated taking the war to the Iberian Peninsula to seize Philip II's main Atlantic ports, rather than remaining satisfied with the indirect combat of Spain in Flanders, defensive action against naval attacks on England and the guerre de course on Spanish shipping at sea. This approach seems to be at the heart of Essex's 1596 naval campaing against Spanish ports, which foundered on the bureaucratic politics of the Elizabethan government.

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

Effect of shear rupture on aggregate scale formation in sea ice

A discrete element model is used to study shear rupture of sea ice under convergent wind stresses. The model includes compressive, tensile, and shear rupture of viscous elastic joints connecting floes that move under the action of the wind stresses. The adopted shear rupture is governed by Coulomb’s criterion. The ice pack is a 400 km long square domain consisting of 4 km size floes. In the standard case with tensile strength 10 times smaller than the compressive strength, under uniaxial compression the failure regime is mainly shear rupture with the most probable scenario corresponding to that with the minimum failure work. The orientation of cracks delineating formed aggregates is bimodal with the peaks around the angles given by the wing crack theory determining diamond-shaped blocks. The ice block (floe aggregate) size decreases as the wind stress gradient increases since the elastic strain energy grows faster leading to a higher speed of crack propagation. As the tensile strength grows, shear rupture becomes harder to attain and compressive failure becomes equally important leading to elongation of blocks perpendicular to the compression direction and the blocks grow larger. In the standard case, as the wind stress confinement ratio increases the failure mode changes at a confinement ratio within 0.2–0.4, which corresponds to the analytical critical confinement ratio of 0.32. Below this value, the cracks are bimodal delineating diamond shape aggregates, while above this value failure becomes isotropic and is determined by small-scale stress anomalies due to irregularities in floe shape.

Unprecedented coordination of dithiocarbimate in multinuclear and heteroleptic complexes

An uncommon coordination protocol induced by the p-tolylsulfonyl dithiocarbimate ligand (L) [L = p-CH(3)C(6)H(4)SO(2)N CS(2)(2-)] in conjunction with PPh(3) allowed the formation of novel homodimetallic, Cu(2)(PPh(3))(4)L (1), trinuclear heterometallic Cu(2)Ni(L)(2)(PPh(3))(4) (2) and heteroleptic complexes of general formula cis-[M(PPh(3))(2)L] [M = Pd(II) (3), Pt(II) (4)]. The complexes have been characterized by microanalysis, mass spectrometry, IR, (1)H, (13)C and (31)P NMR and electronic absorption spectra and single-crystal X-ray crystallography. 2 uniquely consists of square planar, trigonal planar and tetrahedral coordination spheres within the same molecule. In both heteroleptic complexes 3 and 4 the orientation of aromatic protons of PPh(3) ligand towards the Pd(II) and Pt(II) center reveals C-H center dot center dot center dot Pd and C-H center dot center dot center dot Pt rare intramolecular anagostic or preagostic interactions. These complexes exhibit photoluminescent properties in solution at room temperature arising mainly from intraligand charge transfer (ILCT) transitions. The assignment of electronic absorption bands has been corroborated by time dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) calculations. Complexes 1 and 2 with sigma(rt) values similar to 10(-6) S cm(-1) show semi-conductor properties in the temperature range 313-403 K whereas 3 and 4 exhibit insulating behaviour.

Preparation of films of a highly aligned lipid cubic phase

We demonstrate a method by which we can produce an oriented film of an inverse bicontinuous cubic phase (QII D) formed by the lipid monoolein (MO). By starting with the lipid as a disordered precursor (the L3 phase) in the presence of butanediol, we can obtain a film of the QII D phase showing a high degree of in-plane orientation by controlled dilution of the sample under shear within a linear flow cell. We demonstrate that the direction of orientation of the film is different from that found in the oriented bulk material that we have reported previously; therefore, we can now reproducibly form QII D samples oriented with either the [110] or the [100] axis aligned in the flow direction depending on the method of preparation. The deposition of MO as a film, via a moving fluid− air interface that leaves a coating of MO in the L3 phase on the capillary wall, leads to a sample in the [110] orientation. This contrasts with the bulk material that we have previously demonstrated to be oriented in the [100] direction, arising from flow producing an oriented bulk slug of material within the capillary tube. The bulk sample contains significant amounts of residual butanediol, which can be estimated from the lattice parameter of the QII D phase obtained. The sample orientation and lattice parameters are determined from synchrotron small-angle X-ray scattering patterns and confirmed by simulations. This has potential applications in the production of template materials and the growth of protein crystals for crystallography as well as deepening our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the behavior of lyotropic liquid-crystal phases.

Kinematical analysis of redundant drive wire mechanisms with velocity constraint

In this paper, we propose a new velocity constraint type for Redundant Drive Wire Mechanisms. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the proposed velocity constraint module can fix the orientation of the movable part and to use the kinematical analysis method to obtain the moving direction of the movable part. First, we discuss the necessity of using this velocity constraint type and the possible applications of the proposed mechanism. Second, we derive the basic equations of a wire mechanism with this constraint type. Next, we present a method of motion analysis on active and passive constraint spaces, which is used to find the moving direction of a movable part. Finally, we apply the above analysis method on a wire mechanism with a velocity constraint module and on a wire mechanism with four double actuator modules. By evaluating the results, we prove the validity of the proposed constraint type.

Solar origin of heliospheric magnetic field inversions: evidence for coronal loop opening within pseudostreamers

The orientation of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near‒Earth space is generally a good indicator of the polarity of HMF foot points at the photosphere. There are times, however, when the HMF folds back on itself (is inverted), as indicated by suprathermal electrons locally moving sunward, even though they must ultimately be carrying the heat flux away from the Sun. Analysis of the near‒Earth solar wind during the period 1998–2011 reveals that inverted HMF is present approximately 5.5% of the time and is generally associated with slow, dense solar wind and relatively weak HMF intensity. Inverted HMF is mapped to the coronal source surface, where a new method is used to estimate coronal structure from the potential‒field source‒surface model. We find a strong association with bipolar streamers containing the heliospheric current sheet, as expected, but also with unipolar or pseudostreamers, which contain no current sheet. Because large‒scale inverted HMF is a widely accepted signature of interchange reconnection at the Sun, this finding provides strong evidence for models of the slow solar wind which involve coronal loop opening by reconnection within pseudostreamer belts as well as the bipolar streamer belt. Occurrence rates of bipolar‒ and pseudostreamers suggest that they are equally likely to result in inverted HMF and, therefore, presumably undergo interchange reconnection at approximately the same rate. Given the different magnetic topologies involved, this suggests the rate of reconnection is set externally, possibly by the differential rotation rate which governs the circulation of open solar flux.

The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi decadal timescales.

Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO

The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms of their relationship to the NAO phase and the dominating environmental variables controlling their intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa is used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence and jet stream strength. Cyclones over the North Atlantic are identified and tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting a detailed analysis of their life cycles. Extreme cyclones are selected as the 10% most severe in terms of intensity. Investigations focus on the main strengthening phase of each cyclone. The environmental factors are related to the NAO, which affects the location and orientation of the cyclone tracks, thus explaining why extreme cyclones occur more (less) frequently during strong positive (negative) NAO phases. The enhanced number of extreme cyclones in positive NAO phases can be explained by the larger area with suitable growth conditions, which is better aligned with the cyclone tracks and is associated with increased cyclone life time and intensity. Moreover, strong intensification of cyclones is frequently linked to the occurrence of extreme values of growth factors in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone centre. Similar results are found for ECHAM5/OM1 for present day conditions, demonstrating that relationships between the environment factors and cyclones are also valid in the GCM. For future climate conditions (following the SRES A1B scenario), the results are similar, but a small increase of the frequency of extreme values is detected near the cyclone cores. On the other hand, total cyclone numbers decrease by 10% over the North Atlantic. An exception is the region near the British Isles, which features increased track density and intensity of extreme cyclones irrespective of the NAO phase. These changes are associated with an intensified jet stream close to Europe. Moreover, an enhanced frequency of explosive developments over the British Isles is found, leading to more frequent windstorms affecting Europe.

Spatial and radiometric fidelity of airborne multispectral imagery in the context of land-cover change analyses

The goal was to quantitatively estimate and compare the fidelity of images acquired with a digital imaging system (ADAR 5500) and generated through scanning of color infrared aerial photographs (SCIRAP) using image-based metrics. Images were collected nearly simultaneously in two repetitive flights to generate multi-temporal datasets. Spatial fidelity of ADAR was lower than that of SCIRAP images. Radiometric noise was higher for SCIRAP than for ADAR images, even though noise from misregistration effects was lower. These results suggest that with careful control of film scanning, the overall fidelity of SCIRAP imagery can be comparable to that of digital multispectral camera data. Therefore, SCIRAP images can likely be used in conjunction with digital metric camera imagery in long-term landcover change analyses.

Expression of cyclooxygenase-2 in intestine of pigs of different ages and hygiene status

Prostaglandins (PG) are bioactive lipids derived from the metabolism of membrane polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), and play important roles in a number of biological processes including cell division, immune responses and wound healing. Cyclooxygenase (COX) is the key enzyme in PG synthesis from arachidonic acid. The hypothesis of the present study was that expression of COX-2 in porcine intestine was dependent on the microbial load and the age of piglets. Piglets were obtained from sows raised either on outdoor free-range farms or on indoor commercial farms, and littermates were divided into three treatments: One group of piglets suckled the sow, a second group was put into an isolator and fed a milk formula, and a third group was put into the isolator fed milk formula and injected with broad spectrum antibiotics. Samples were collected from the 75% level of the small intestine at day 5, 28 and 56 of age. Tissue section from four piglets from each of these six treatment groups was analysed by immunofluorescence for COX-2 and type-IV collagen (basement membrane, defining lamina propria (LP)). Image analysis was used to determine the number of positive pixels expressing LP and epithelial COX-2. COX-2 expressing cells were observed in LP and epithelium in all porcine intestinal samples. When analysing images obtained on day 28, injection of antibiotics seemed to reduce the COX-2 expression in intestinal samples of piglets when compared to other treatments (P=0.053). No significant effect of farm, treatments or age of piglets was observed on COX-2 expressing data when analysing all data of images obtained at day 28 and 56. By double-labelling experiments, COX-2 was found not to be expressed on cell co-expressing CD45, CD16, CD163 or CD2, thus indicating that mucosal leukocytes, including dendritic cells, macrophages and NK cells did not express COX-2. Future research should investigate the role of COX-2 expression in the digestive tract in relation to pig health.

Retrieval of phytoplankton size from bio-optical measurements: theory and applications

The absorption coefficient of a substance distributed as discrete particles in suspension is less than that of the same material dissolved uniformly in a medium—a phenomenon commonly referred to as the flattening effect. The decrease in the absorption coefficient owing to flattening effect depends on the concentration of the absorbing pigment inside the particle, the specific absorption coefficient of the pigment within the particle, and on the diameter of the particle, if the particles are assumed to be spherical. For phytoplankton cells in the ocean, with diameters ranging from less than 1 µm to more than 100 µm, the flattening effect is variable, and sometimes pronounced, as has been well documented in the literature. Here, we demonstrate how the in vivo absorption coefficient of phytoplankton cells per unit concentration of its major pigment, chlorophyll a, can be used to determine the average cell size of the phytoplankton population. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to evaluate the errors in the estimated diameter owing to potential errors in the model assumptions. Cell sizes computed for field samples using the model are compared qualitatively with indirect estimates of size classes derived from high performance liquid chromatography data. Also, the results are compared quantitatively against measurements of cell size in laboratory cultures. The method developed is easy-to-apply as an operational tool for in situ observations, and has the potential for application to remote sensing of ocean colour data.

Determination of orientations of aromatic groups in self-assembled peptide fibrils by polarised Raman spectroscopy

In this paper we describe a novel combination of Raman spectroscopy, isotope editing and X-ray scattering as a powerful approach to give detailed structural information on aromatic side chains in peptide fibrils. The orientation of the tyrosine residues in fibrils of the peptide YTIAALLSPYS with respect to the fibril axis has been determined from a combination of polarised Raman spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction measurements. The Raman intensity of selected tyrosine bands collected at different polarisation geometries is related to the values and orientation of the Raman tensor for those specific vibrations. Using published Raman tensor values we solved the relevant expressions for both of the two tyrosine residues present in this peptide. Ring deuteration in one of the two tyrosine side chains allowed for the calculation to be performed individually for both, by virtue of the isotopic shift that eliminates band overlapping. Sample disorder was taken into account by obtaining the distribution of orientations of the samples from X-ray diffraction experiments. The results provide previously unavailable details about the molecular conformation of this peptide, and demonstrate the value of this approach for the study of amyloid fibrils.