Polpa cítrica na restrição alimentar qualitativa para suínos em terminação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Qualidade ambiental urbana em Presidente Prudente/SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Efeitos de períodos de interferência na comunidade infestante e na produtividade da beterraba

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mapas de zonas de risco de epidemias para doenças dos citros no Estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Levantamento da entomofauna em sítios florestais em recuperação e em um fragmento de floresta natural em Botucatu, SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Proteção de Plantas) - FCA

Análise bayesiana do modelo fatorial dinâmico para um vetor de séries temporais utilizando a distribuição t multivariada

The multivariate t models are symmetric and with heavier tail than the normal distribution, important feature in financial data. In this theses is presented the Bayesian estimation of a dynamic factor model, where the factors follow a multivariate autoregressive model, using multivariate t distribution. Since the multivariate t distribution is complex, it was represented in this work as a mix between a multivariate normal distribution and a square root of a chi-square distribution. This method allowed to define the posteriors. The inference on the parameters was made taking a sample of the posterior distribution, through the Gibbs Sampler. The convergence was verified through graphical analysis and the convergence tests Geweke (1992) and Raftery & Lewis (1992a). The method was applied in simulated data and in the indexes of the major stock exchanges in the world.

Componentes principais na elaboração de índices de provas de desempenho em bovinos

The principal component analysis assists the producers in making decision of which evaluated features must be maintained in performance tests indexes, according to the variation present in these animals evaluated. The objective in this study was to evaluate a set of characteristics measured in a performance test in semifeedlot cattle of the Simmental and Angus breeds, by means principal component analysis (PC), aim to identify the features that represent most of the phenotypic variation for preparation of indexes. It was used data from 39 Angus and 38 Simmental bulls from the Santa Éster farm, located in Silvianópolis - MG. The performance test period was from october 2014 to february 2015. The features evaluated in the test were: final weight (FW), average daily gain weight (GW), respiratory rate (RR), haircoat temperature (HT) and rectal (RT), hair number (HN), hair length (HL), hair thickness (HT), muscularity (MUSC), racial characteristics, angulation, reproductive and balance (BAL), height of the front and back, width and length of croup, body length, depth and heart girth, subcutaneous fat thickness and rump (FTR), loin eye area and marbling (MAR). It was used PRINCOMP from SAS program for procedure the PC analysis. It was found that of the 27 features evaluated, the first four PC for Simmental breed explained 74% total variation data. The four PC selected with the corresponding weighting coefficients formed the following index: (0.27 * FW) + (0.47 * MUSC) + (0.50 * HL) + (0.39 * HT). Since the characteristics related to the adaptability of great importance for the studied breed, it was decided to keep the index of evidence for the Angus breed, the feature hair number, because there is a feature that presented a great variability and occupied one of the first principal component. Thus, the Angus index was composed by five features, with 79% total variation data, resulting in the following formula: (0.26 * FW) + (0.33 * BAL) + (0.58 * MAR) - (0.43 * FTR) – (0.38 * HN). By the principal component analysis it was possible to minimize the features number to be evaluated on performance tests from that farm, making the animal selection rapidly and accurate.

Diagnóstico da influência de atividades antrópicas na qualidade da água do córrego Gavanhery no município de Getulina - SP

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Inovações metodológicas na congelação de sêmen bovino

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação da alimentação de gestantes mediante aplicação do índice de qualidade da dieta adaptado

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Qualidade de vida e morbidade psicológica de pacientes portadores de hepatite C em tratamento com interferon peguilado e ribavirina

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação de uma fazenda florestal com produção de eucalipto e reserva legal manejada no cerrado sul-matogrossense: indicadores para a busca da sustentabilidade

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Efeitos do treinamento de caminhada com restrição do fluxo sanguíneo sobre economia de corrida em indivíduos ativos

Pós-graduação em Desenvolvimento Humano e Tecnologias - IBRC

Efeitos do treinamento de caminhada em declive sobre índices de aptidão aeróbia

Pós-graduação em Desenvolvimento Humano e Tecnologias - IBRC