Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia

This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly price a chosen panel of stocks returns. With the assumption that states probabilities are homogeneous we back out the risk neutral distribution and calculate five primitive tail risk measures, all extracted from this risk neutral probability. The final measure is than set as the first principal component of the preliminary measures. Using six Fama-French size and book to market portfolios to calculate our tail risk, we find that it has significant predictive power when forecasting market returns one month ahead, aggregate U.S. consumption and GDP one quarter ahead and also macroeconomic activity indexes. Conditional Fama-Macbeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that our factor present a positive risk premium when controlling for traditional factors.

Desenvolvimento de índices de preços para infraestrutura no Brasil

Essa dissertação apresenta um conjunto de índices de preços de infraestrutura desenvolvidos com o propósito de fornecer indicadores específicos para este setor de atividades no Brasil. Foi realizado um levantamento dos principais índices dessa natureza produzidos no Brasil e no mundo. As principais referências internacionais foram os países membros da Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico – OCDE e da União Europeia. A partir dessa análise, foram identificadas três questões fundamentais para o desenvolvimento do trabalho: i) qual é o conjunto de obras de infraestrutura a ser representado pelos índices e como delimitar esse conjunto?; ii) os índices de preços produzidos atualmente no Brasil representam parcial ou totalmente esse conjunto?; e iii) como desenvolver um conjunto de índices, construídos sobre a mesma base metodológica, de abrangência nacional, capazes de representar adequadamente tal conjunto de obras? Como resultado do trabalho, foi desenvolvido um conjunto dez índices de preços de infraestrutura, que contempla todos os requisitos listados acima. Além da base metodológica para construção dos índices, foram calculadas suas respectivas séries históricas para o período de dezembro/2000 (base = 100) a fevereiro/2015, a partir das quais os índices são analisados sob diversos aspectos como, por exemplo, através de análise comparativa dos dez índices entre si e análise do comportamento dos índices ao longo do tempo, considerando o contexto macroeconômico através da observação de indicadores selecionados.

Análise do alongamento das carteiras dos fundos de previdência complementar aberta

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar as durações das carteiras de renda fixa dos fundos previdenciários, que são paradoxalmente curtas em relação aos objetivos de longo prazo inerentes à previdência, e os eventuais efeitos dos incentivos de permanência existentes nos planos coletivos instituídos, como o custeio do instituidor e regras de desligamento – vesting – no alongamento dessas carteiras. Como forma de sobrepujar as dificuldades da observação direta dos prazos de alongamento das carteiras dos fundos analisados, foi proposto um índice de alongamento calcado na Análise de Estilo Baseada nos Retornos desenvolvida por SHARPE (1992) empregando-se as componentes principais dos Índices de Duração Constante da Anbima (IDkA) para a avaliação da sensibilidade dos retornos mensais dos fundos analisados às curvas de juros real e nominal. Os resultados obtidos não mostram evidências de que os fundos que recebem recursos exclusivamente de planos instituídos apresentem duração maior do que daqueles que recebem recursos de planos individuais e coletivos averbados. Por outro lado, os fundos classificados como “Previdência Data Alvo” pela Anbima destacam-se por apresentar índices de alongamento maiores frente à média dos fundos classificados como “Previdência Renda Fixa” ou “Previdência Balanceado” e correlação positiva entre seus índices de alongamento e Ano Alvo do fundo, o que sugere que políticas que trabalhem o conjunto de informação dos agentes, investidores e gestores, são capazes de modificar a alocação dos investimentos. Basta informação para melhorar a alocação.

An evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for value-at-risk estimation

Market risk exposure plays a key role for nancial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incurwhen the price of the portfolio's assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of nancial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estimation. The approach is based on an extension of the possibilistic fuzzy c-means clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modeling, which employs memberships and typicalities to update clusters and creates new clusters based on a statistical control distance-based criteria. ePFM also uses an utility measure to evaluate the quality of the current cluster structure. Computational experiments consider data of the main global equity market indexes of United States, London, Germany, Spain and Brazil from January 2000 to December 2012 for VaR estimation using ePFM, traditional VaR benchmarks such as Historical Simulation, GARCH, EWMA, and Extreme Value Theory and state of the art evolving approaches. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for VaR modeling, with better performance than alternative approaches.

The Sao Paulo stock exchange and the economic stabilization

The inflationary stabilization recently observed in Brazil brings a lot of changes in all aspects of the country’s economic life. In this work we look at the impacts on the stock market, specifically at Bovespa - the São Paulo Stock Exchange. We analyze the leading variables and statistics that describe Bovespa’s behavior, such as volatility and systematic risk, comparing the four years preceding and the four years after 1994, when the Real Plan was implemented. In order to eliminate exogenous influences, we use control series made with international Stock Exchanges Indexes. The results show that after 1994 there was reduced volatility, increased trade volume, reduced efficiency of the Bovespa Index and no changes in systematic risk.

Analysts’ recommendations in Brazil: do they add value?

This paper examines the value of analysts’ recommendations in Brazilian Stock Market. We studied a sample of 294 weeks of recommendations make public by the best seller newspaper in Brazil with six different investment strategies and time horizons. The main conclusion is that it is possible to beat the Brazilian market indexes Ibovespa and IBrX following the analysts’ stock recommendations. The best strategies are buying only the recommended stocks, buying the recommended stocks whose target and market prices difference is bigger than 25% and lesser or equal than 50%. The performance of the six strategies is analyzed through the use of bootstrap and Monte Carlo techniques.

Transparência subnacional: um estudo das variáveis determinantes para o atendimento da lei de acesso à informação nos municípios brasileiros

O fortalecimento da democracia passa necessariamente pelo acesso a informação. Esta vem sendo regulada por marcos legais ao longo das últimas décadas. Entretanto sabemos que a prática por vezes não corresponde à teoria. Verificar como os municípios brasileiros vêm implementando suas obrigações em face da LAI passa, além de avaliar seu cumprimento pela investigação das causas de eventuais desníveis em tal atendimento. Mais que isto, tentar identificar variáveis que impactem mais decisivamente tal implementação. A partir desta premissa, buscamos identificar tais fatores e quantificar o impacto de cada um deles no resultado de avaliação de um dos índices de transparência criados recentemente – o Escala Brasil Transparente (EBT). Cumpriu-se essa tarefa por meio das seguintes ações: (i) realização de pesquisa bibliográfica a partir da produção acadêmica; (ii) catalogação e análise dos instrumentos legais para transparência; (iii) levantamento das variáveis determinantes para a transparência; (iv) estabelecimento de relação entre tais variáveis e os índices de transparência encontrados, por meio de técnicas estatísticas, especialmente correlação e regressão. As pesquisas feitas constataram que a produção acadêmica da área de Administração Pública sobre o tema ainda é virtualmente inexistente e que as investigações da causalidade da transparência se faz necessária; que, dada a correlação encontrada entre as variáveis selecionadas e a transparência, as conclusões são por hipóteses promissoras que merecem estudos mais detalhados, com técnicas qualitativas a fim de uma determinação mais precisa de causa-efeito.

Characteristics of the biological cycle of lutzomyia evandroi Costa Lima & Antunes, 1936 (diptera: psychodidae) under experimental conditions

XIMENES, Maria de Fátima Freire de Melo; MACIEL, Janaína Cunha; JERONIMO, Selma Maria Bezerra. Characteristics of the Biological Cycle of Lutzomyia evandroi Costa Lima & Antunes, 1936 (diptera: psychodidae) under experimental conditions. Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, v.96, n.6, p.883-886, ago. 2001. Disponivel em: Acesso em: 4 out. 2010.

Desempenho internacional de empresas exportadoras: um modelo estrutural baseado em capacidades organizacionais e ambiente

The internationalization as an organizational phenomenon fundamentally strategic had as theoretical contributions some Schools that throughout the decades 60, 70, and 80 developed behavioral and economic approaches in order to explain the process. The behavioral approach deals with the perception of phenomenon as a gradual process from the perspective of the executives behavior (JOHANSON and VAHLNE, 1977; HALLÉN and WIEDERSHEIM - PAUL, 1979; CZINKOTA, 1985). This phenomenon in permanent theoretical and managerial evolution made an opportunity to build this investigation, whose goal is to analyse the impact comes from organizational capabilities and the external environment on the international performance of exporting firms. For both, were used as theoretical basis two types of analysis for the comprehension of international performance: Strategic Management - Industrial Organization and Resource-Based View and International Businesses - Current Economic and Behavioral. It was made a cross-sectional survey-based explanatory research, including 150 exporting companies with operations in the Northeast of Brazil. A conceptual model was made with eight constructs and eight research hypotheses, representative of the effects of external factors on international performance. The data were processed using the Exploratory Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling. The structural equations model was reespecified and estimated through the use of the maximum-likelihood method up to achieve adequated values of indexes of adjustment. As the main theoretical contribution, were identified organizational and physical resources which shows the importance of the management skills development, of the learning capability and capability to establish strategic alliances abroad. That because the knowledge, as the operational point of view as in its strategic application, offers to organization conditions of market positioning which can create opportunities sustainable competitive advantages and which impact the performance of international companies

Distribuição e abundância da malacofauna epibentônica no Parracho de Maracajaú, RN, Brasil

The mollusks present a great taxon variety and life habits in coral reefs being good environmental indicators. It is important to know the distribution pattern of the mollusks and the processes that influence it, so that disturbances in sea ecosystems could be monitored. The present study aims to accomplish the inventory and distribution of epibenthic mollusks in the Parracho of Maracajaú. 23 sites in different habitats of the Parracho were settled: 11 in the reef habitat, 3 in the sandy bottom and 9 in the seagrass bed. Qualitative and quantitative samplings have been done through snorkeling and scuba diving. Three band transects (10m²) were sampled in each site and the data were obtained to each m² of the transect, where the species were counted and the environmental variables (rugosity and recovery of the substratum) were valued. The data were submitted to multivariate analyses in order to find possible distribution patterns that could be associated to the substratum variables. The diversity indexes were calculated for each reef sites and compared with each other. A number of 46 species were registered. The reef habit at should to be the richnest area while the sandy bottom was poorest one. In the reef habitat, the mollusks were associated to rugosity and recovering of frondose algae and zoanthids, while for the seagrass bed, the animals exhibited a richness variation associated to the muddy and sandy sediment. There were found 3 species economically explored, what requires an appropriate management for the maintenance and conservation of the area resources in a sustainable way

Estrutura e dinâmica do fitoplânctone bacterioplâncton em cultivos de camarão no Rio Grande do Norte-Brasil: impacto sobre o ambiente natural

This work aimed to study the structure and dynamic of Phytoplankton and Bacterioplankton in a complete cycle of shrimp cultivation (Litopenaeus vannamei) and determine the environmental factors responsible for the structural changes of these communities. The study was realized in a saltwater shrimp farm (Macaíba, RN), between September/2005 and February/2006, and in a freshwater shrimp farm (Ceará Mirim, RN), between May/2007 and September 2007. The samplings were collected weekly in saltwater farm and every fifteen days in freshwater farm. Total phosphorus, chlorophyll a and environmental parameters (pH, dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, depth and water transparency) were measured. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the phytoplankton and bacterioplankton were carried out. The Shannon-Wiener ecologic indexes of diversity and the Pielou equitability indexes were calculated to the phytoplankton. Bacterial density was determined by epifluorescence microscopy. The data were statistically analyzed by Pearson correlation and t-Test. Chlorophycea were predominat in salt water and in the captation/drainage point (24 to 99%). Diatoms had higher wealth. The species Choricystis minor had the highest occurrence (100%) and dominance (90-100%), thus showing its adaptation to the high temperatures, salinity and low water transparency conditions. Filamentous Cyanobacteria like Oscillatoria sp., Pseudoanabaena sp. and Phormidium sp. had constant levels. The negative correlation between chlorophycea and water transparency, and the positive correlation between chlorophyll a and salinity, showed that the phytoplankton was well adapted to the low transparency and to the high salinity. The bacterioplankton was negatively correlated with the total phosphorus and salinity. In freshwater, Cyanobacteria were predominant (>80%), presenting some producers of toxins species like Microcystis sp., Aphanizomenon sp., Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii e Anabaena circinalis. Cyanobacterial density and total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations exceeded the maximum value allowed by legislation. The means of total phosphorus varied from 264 to 627 Wg.L-1 and the means of chlorophyll a oscillated between 22 and 182 Wg.L-1. The phytoplankton species were selected by low availability of the light, high pH, temperature and high availability of total phosphorus. The bacterioplankton showed high densities (5,13 x 107 to 8,50 x107 Bac.mL-1). The studied environments (ponds and rivers) presented a high level of trophic state based on the high concentrations of chlorophyll a and total phosphorus and cyanobacteria dominance. The composition of species in the ponds and rivers was similar, as well as high concentrations of total phosphorus and chlorophyll a, highlighting the pollution caused by the discharges of the farms in natural environment

Ecomorfologia de dez espécies de peixes marinhos mais abundantes de Galinhos/RN

Ecomorphology is a science based on the idea that morphological differences among species could be associated with distinct biological and environmental pressures suffered by them. These differences can be studied employing morphological and biometric indexes denominated Ecomorphological attributes , representing standards that express characteristics of the individual in relation to its environment, and can be interpreted as indicators of life habits or adaptations suffered due its occupation of different habitats. This work aims to contribute for the knowledge of the ecomorphology of the Brazilian marine ichthyofauna, specifically from Galinhos, located at Rio Grande do Norte state. 10 different species of fish were studied, belonging the families Gerreidae (Eucinostomus argenteus), Haemulidae (Orthopristis ruber,Pomadasyscorvinaeformis,Haemulonaurolineatum,Haemulonplumieri,Haemulonsteindachneri), Lutjanidae (Lutjanus synagris), Paralichthyidae (Syaciummicrurum), Bothidae (Bothus ocellatus) and Tetraodontidae (Sphoeroidestestudineus), which were obtained during five collections, in the period time of September/2004 to April/2005, utilizing three special nets. The ecomorphological study was performed at the laboratory. Eight to ten samples of each fish specie were measured. Fifteen morphological aspects were considered to calculate twelve ecomorphological attributes. Multivariate statistical analysis methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis were done to identify ecmorphological patterns to describe the data set obtained. As results, H.aurolineatumwas the most abundant specie found (23,03%) and S.testudineusthe less one with 0,23%. The 1st Principal component showed variation of 60,03% with influence of the ecomorphological attribute related to body morphology, while the 2nd PC with 23,25% variation had influence of the ecomorphological attribute related to oral morphology. The Cluster Analiysis promoted the identification of three distinct groups Perciformes, Pleuronectiformes and Tetraodontiformes. Based on the obtained data, considering morphological characters differences among the species studied, we suggest that all of them live at the medium (E.argenteus,O.rubber, P.corvinaeformis,H.aurolineatum,H.plumieri,H.steindachneri,L.synagris) and bottom (S.micrurum,B.ocellatus,S.testudineus) region of column water.

Biodiversidade e abundância da ictiofauna associada ao cultivo orgânico de Litopenaeus vannamei (Boone, 1931)

The expansion of shrimp farming has caused a series of environmental impacts, often as a result of lack of planning and adequate management. Organic aquaculture has emerged as an alternative to conventional shrimp farming, and differently, aims at the economical, ecological and farming potential of other organisms, such as fishes, oysters and seaweeds. The present study aimed at evaluating the biological diversity and abundance of the ichthyofauna associated to Litopenaeus vannamei organic culture at PRIMAR farm (Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil). The sampling period consisted of four culture cycles (1, 2, 3, and 4) accomplished in four grow-out ponds (V1, V7, V2, and V4) in 2005. The first two culture cycles were carried out during the rainy season, and the last two cycles, during the dry season. Environmental (temperature, salinity, transparency, and rainfall), biodiversity (diversity and uniformity and abundance indexes) of the ichthyofauna, and shrimp productivity data were collected throughout these four culture cycles. The results obtained for the environmental variables showed that both salinity and transparency oscillated in a significant way (p < 0.001) between culture cycles. In relation to the abundance of the ichthyofauna, fifty four species associated to the organic culture of Litopenaeus vannamei were collected and identified at PRIMAR. For the biodiversity criterion, larger species richness (S = 46) and uniformity (E = 0.59 ± 0.16) were observed during cycles 3 and 4 than in cycles 1 and 2 (S = 41 and E = 0.15 ± 0.12). A positive and significant correlation was obtained for the transparency with diversity and uniformity of fish species between cycles 1 and 2 (wet season) and cycles 3 and 4 (dry season) (p < 0.017 - Shannon Index; p < 0.008 - Pielou Index, respectively). A correlation could not be established between shrimp productivity and fish biomass. However, fish biomass decreased from cycles 1 and 2 to cycles 3 and 4, concomitant with an increase in shrimp productivity, most probably due to a higher (from 58.0% to 71.0%) shrimp survival. Regarding the culture potential of the ichthyofauna, three species (Mugil curema, Mugil liza and Chaetodipterus faber) were identified as potential farming alternatives, either singly or in consortium with Litopenaeus vannamei. A fourth species (Centropomus undecimalis) was indicated as an alternative for single culture or in consortium with other fish species. In conclusion, the large diversity of estuarine fishes associated to Litopenaeus vannamei farming observed at PRIMAR clearly indicated the ecological feasibility for organic aquaculture in northeastern Brazil

Influência das espécies ativas na absorção de intersticiais durante a carbonitretação a plasma do TI

Physical-chemical properties of Ti are sensible to the presence of interstitial elements. In the case of thermochemical treatments plasma assisted, the influence of different active species is not still understood. In order to contribute for such knowledge, this work purposes a study of the role played by the active species atmosphere into the Ar N2 CH4 carbonitriding plasma. It was carried out a plasma diagnostic by OES (Optical Emission Spectroscopy) in the z Ar y N2 x CH4 plasma mixture, in which z, y and x indexes represent gas flow variable from 0 to 4 sccm (cm3/min). The diagnostic presents abrupt variations of emission intensities associated to the species in determined conditions. Therefore, they were selected in order to carry out the chemical treatment and then to investigate their influences. Commercial pure Ti disks were submitted to plasma carbonitriding process using pre-established conditions from the OES measurements while some parameters such as pressure and temperature were maintained constant. The concentration profiles of interstitial elements (C and N atoms) were determined by Resonant Nuclear Reaction Analysis (NRA) resulting in a depth profile plots. The reactions used were 15N(ρ,αγ)12C and 12C(α,α)12C. GIXRD (Grazing Incidence X-Ray Diffraction) analysis was used in order to identify the presence of phases on the surface. Micro-Raman spectroscopy was used in order to qualitatively study the carbon into the TiCxN1 structure. It has been verified which the density species effectively influences more the diffusion of particles into the Ti lattice and characteristics of the layer formed than the gas concentration. High intensity of N2 + (391,4 nm) and CH (387,1 nm) species promotes more diffusion of C and N. It was observed that Hα (656,3 nm) species acts like a catalyzer allowing a deeper diffusion of nitrogen and carbon into the titanium lattice.