Improving the Effectiveness of Sanctions: A Checklist for the EU. CEPS Special Report No. 95, 6 November 2014

The increasingly frequent imposition of sanctions by the EU over the past decade has not been accompanied by a thorough pre-assessment and contingency planning stage, which, argue the authors, has led to the formulation of suboptimal sanctions regimes. This paper proposes a practical pre-assessment and contingency planning of sanctions – a checklist, which departs from the ‘ad hoc-ism’ of current decision-making on sanctions. The checklist includes the identification of resources linked to the objectionable policies; the leverage of the EU; the costs to the EU; the legality of the measures; their unintended effects; the expected contribution towards EU goals; their coherence with overall EU external relations; and the communication of these policies.

Review of the Economic Development in the Western Balkan States. OSW STUDIES No. 19, 2005-08-10

Foreword. Ten years after the end of the armed conflict, the Western Balkans1 are still being considered as the “land of the unsuccessful policies”. Enormous financial and technical assistance transferred by the International Community has not managed to meet the goals of integrating the region within itself as well as within the European markets. Explanation for this can be found in the consequences of the war and the remnants of the socialist state. The complexity of current institutional/ political arrangements combined with the limited willingness of the regional actors to introduce and implement much of the needed reforms have additionally contributed to the current state of affairs. The economy and politics in the region intertwine to an extent as probably in none of the other post-communist states. Therefore, the paper presents the recent economic performance of the Western Balkan countries in the light of their limited institutional development and lack of efficient regional cooperation. The paper discusses the importance of foreign direct investments’ inflow for the economic growth of the “latecomer” states and presents major drawbacks which limit the influx of the foreign capital to the region. It presents private sector activity and regional cooperation programmes. It discusses the role of the International Community with the main focus on the activities of the European Union. The EU is examined not only as the main aid donor but more importantly as a foreign trade partner. Furthermore, it analyses the impact of the presence of the International Community and their strategies towards the region with the special attention to the EU. Finally, it presents recommendations for the improvement of the economic performance in light of the enhanced political cooperation between the EU and the region.

After the Vilnius fiasco: Who is to blame? What is to be done? CEPS Essay No. 8, 21 January 2014

All three parties principally responsible for the Vilnius fiasco are to blame, each in their very different way: the EU for having drafted agreements with an inadequate balance between incentives and obligations, and vulnerable as a result to Putin’s aim to torpedo the whole process in favour of his misconceived Eurasian Union, while Yanukovich tried playing geo-political games that left him personally and the Ukrainian state as Putin’s hostage. It will require a major recalibration of policies to get this unstable new status quo back onto sound strategic lines, and proposals are advanced along three tracks in parallel: for rebuilding the remnants of the EU’s neighbourhood policy, for attempting to get Russia to take Lisbon to Vladivostok seriously, and for promoting a Greater Eurasia concept fit for the 21st century that would embrace the whole of the European and Asian landmass.

Restoring Order in Global Health Governance: Do Metagovernance Norms Affect Interorganizational Convergence? CES Open Forum Series #23, 2014-2015

This paper theorizes about the convergence of international organizations in global health governance, a field of international cooperation that is commonly portrayed as particularly hit by institutional fragmentation. Unlike existing theories on interorganizationalism that have mainly looked to intra- and extraorganizational factors in order to explain why international organizations cooperate with each other in the first place, the paper is interested in the link between causes and systemic effects of interorganizational convergence. The paper begins by defining interorganizational convergence. It then proceeds to discuss why conventional theories on interorganizational- ism fail to explain the aggregate effects of convergence between IOs in global (health) governance which tend to worsen rather than cushion fragmentation — so-called "hypercollective action" (Severino & Ray 2010). In order to remedy this explanatory blind-spot the paper formulates an alternative sociological institutionalist theory on interorganizational convergence that makes two core theoretical propositions: first that emerging norms of metagovernance are a powerful driver behind interorganizational convergence in global health governance, and secondly that IOs are engaged in a fierce meaning-struggle over these norms which results in hypercollective action. In its empirical part, the paper’s core theoretical propositions are corroborated by analyzing discourses and practices of interorganizational convergence in global health. The empirical analysis allows drawing two far-reaching conclusions. On the one hand, interorganizational harmonization has emerged as a largely undisputed norm in global health which has been translated into ever more institutionalized forms of interorganizational cooperation. On the other, discourses and practices of interorganizational harmonization exhibit conflicts over the ordering principles according to which the policies and actions of international organizations with overlapping mandates and missions should be harmonized. In combination, these two empirical findings explain why interorganizational convergence has so far failed to strengthen the global health architecture.

Benthic and planktic foraminiferal stable isotope record and coccolith abundance spanning the last 500,000 years of ODP Hole 121-758C

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is an inter-hemispheric and highly variable ocean-atmosphere-land interaction that directly affects the densely populated Indian subcontinent. Here, we present new records of palaeoceanographic variability that span the last 500,000 years from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, a relatively under-sampled area of ISM influence. We have generated carbon and oxygen stable isotope records from three foraminiferal species from Ocean Drilling Program Site 758 (5°N, 90°E) to investigate the oceanographic history of this region. We interpret our resultant Dd18O (surface-thermocline) record of upper water-column stratification in the context of past ISM variability, and compare orbital phase relationships in our Site 758 data to other climate and monsoon proxies in the region. Results suggest that upper water-column stratification at Site 758, which is dominated by variance at precession and half-precession frequencies (23, 19 and 11 ka), is forced by both local (5°N) insolation and ISM winds. In the precession (23 ka) band, stratification minima at Site 758 lag northern hemisphere summer insolation maxima (precession minima) by 9 ka, which is consistent with Arabian Sea ISM phase estimates and suggests a common wind forcing in both regions. This phase implicates a strong sensitivity to both ice volume and southern hemisphere insolation forcing via latent heat export from the southern subtropical Indian Ocean. Additionally, we find evidence of possible overprinting of millennial-scale events during glacial terminations in our stratification record, which suggests an influence of remote abrupt climate events on ISM dynamics.

Sedimentology on a core from Lonar Lake in India

Concerns about the regional impact of global climate change in a warming scenario have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM, also referred to as the Indian Ocean summer monsoon) and the absence of long term palaeoclimate data from the central Indian core monsoon zone (CMZ). Here we present the first high resolution, well-dated, multiproxy reconstruction of Holocene palaeoclimate from a 10 m long sediment core raised from the Lonar Lake in central India. We show that while the early Holocene onset of intensified monsoon in the CMZ is similar to that reported from other ISM records, the Lonar data shows two prolonged droughts (PD, multidecadal to centennial periods of weaker monsoon) between 4.6-3.9 and 2-0.6 cal?ka. A comparison of our record with available data from other ISM influenced sites shows that the impact of these PD was observed in varying degrees throughout the ISM realm and coincides with intervals of higher solar irradiance. We demonstrate that (i) the regional warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) plays an important role in causing ISM PD through changes in meridional overturning circulation and position of the anomalous Walker cell; (ii) the long term influence of conditions like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the ISM began only ca. 2 cal?ka BP and is coincident with the warming of the southern IPWP; (iii) the first settlements in central India coincided with the onset of the first PD and agricultural populations flourished between the two PD, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and PD as major environmental factors affecting human settlements.

Helium isotope ratios and pore gases in deep-sea sediments of the Japan Sea

We have measured the 3He/4He and 4He/20Ne ratios and chemical compositions of gases exsolved from deep-sea sediments at two sites (798 and 799) in the Japan Sea. The 3He/4He and 4He/20Ne ratios vary from 0.642 Ratm (where Ratm is the atmospheric 3He/4He ratio of 1.393*10**-6) to 0.840 Ratm, and from 0.41 to 4.5, respectively. Helium in the samples can be explained by the mixing between atmospheric helium dissolved in bottom water of the Japan Sea and crustal helium in the sediment. The sedimentary helium is enriched in mantle-derived 3He compared with those from the Japan Trench and the Nankai Trough. This suggests that the basement of the Japan Sea has relatively large remnants of mantle-derived helium compared with that of the Pacific. Major chemical compositions of the samples are methane and nitrogen. There is a positive correlation between methane content and helium content corrected for air component. Based on the 3He/4He-Sum C/3He diagram, the major part of methane can be attributed to crustal and/or organic origin.

The manner of securing all sorts of buildings from fire, or, A treatise upon the construction of arches made with bricks and plaister, called flat-arches, and of a roof without timber called a bricked-roof : with the addition of some letters that have passed between the Count of Espie and Peter Wyche Esq. on this subject : adorned with two copper-plates serving to illustrate the whole work /

Publication date from ESTC.

The treatise of al-Jazarī on automata; leaves from a manuscript of the Kitāb fī maʻarifat al-hiyal al handasiya in the Museum of fine arts. Boston, and elsewhere,

Plates, accompanied by unnumbered leaf, laid in.

Ḥabīb-i siyar jild al-thānī, [1026, i.e. 1617].

This is the second of three volumes which comprise Khvandemīr's well known and important general history, completed in 929/1523, which spans the creation of the world up to the death of Shah Ismāʻīl Safavī I. The work includes particularly detailed information about Herat under Sultan Husayn Bayqara, the last Timurid ruler in Herat, as well as Shah Ismāʻīl and Bābur's life. This work has been published in both Persian and English editions.

Taʻṭīr al-ānām fī taʻbīr al-manām wa-bi-hāmishihi muntakhab al-kalām fī tafsīr al-aḥlām li-Ibn Sīrīn /

Date found at the end of the book.

al-Tibyān fī takhṭīṭ al-buldān : yashmulu ʻalá al-durūs allatī alqāhā bi-al-Jāmiʻah al-Miṣrīyah /

Mode of access: Internet.

Kitāb al-amālī fī lughat al-ʻArab ; Wa-kitāb Dhayl al-amālī wa-al-nawādir /

In Arabic.

Sharḥ-i taʻarruf [microform] /

Microfilm.

Al-mukhtaṣar fī akhbār al-bashar.

Translation of title: The abridgement of the history of mankind.