Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Selection of artificial hosts for oviposition by wild Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart) (Diptera, Tephritidae): influence of adult food and effect of experience

Several factors influence the selection of oviposition substrates by insects. The aim of the present work was to find answers to the following questions related to the oviposition behavior of Anastrepha obliqua. Can carbohydrates (glucose or sucrose) present in the adult diet have influence on the female preference for an oviposition substrate with similar composition? Can the previous experience with a host containing one of mentioned carbohydrates interfere in further selection of oviposition substrates? The results showed that the kind of carbohydrate present in the adult diet did not affect the female preference for an artificial oviposition substrate, neither when it was presented by itself nor in combination with brewer's yeast. The effect of experience in the oviposition behavior was observed when there was a previous contact with artificial oviposition substrates containing yeast and sucrose. The data are discussed in terms of the behavioral plasticity presented by this species in relation to feeding and oviposition behaviors.

Economic rationality and ethical behavior

This paper argues that economic rationality and ethical behavior cannotbe reduced one to the other, casting doubts on the validity of formulaslike 'profit is ethical' or 'ethics pays'. In order to express ethicaldilemmas as opposing economic interest with ethical concerns, we proposea model of rational behavior that combines these two irreducible dimensions in an open but not arbitrary manner. Behaviors that are neither ethicalnor profitable are considered irrational (non-arbitrariness). However,behaviors that are profitable but unethical, and behaviors that are ethicalbut not profitable, are all treated as rational (openness). Combiningethical concerns with economic interest, ethical business is in turn anoptimal form of rationality between venality and sacrifice.Because every one prefers to communicate that he acts ethically, ethicalbusiness remains ambiguous until some economic interest is actuallysacrificed. We argue however that ethical business has an interest indemonstrating its consistency between communication and behavior by atransparent attitude. On the other hand, venal behaviors must remainconfidential to hide the corresponding lack of consistency. Thisdiscursive approach based on transparency and confidentiality helpsto further distinguish between ethical and unethical business behaviors.

Occurrence, biology and behavior of Liogenys fuscus Blanchard (Insecta, Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Due to the importance of some Pleurosticti Scarabaeidae as agricultural pests allied to information absence on the species that occur in Brazilian Central-West region, on studies occurrence, biology and behavior on this group of scarabs were conducted. Biology and behavioral studies started with Liogenys fuscus Blanchard, 1850 (Melolonthinae), a very common species and were developed in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul. Adult beetles were collected from light traps from February 2005 to January 2007, at the experimental farm of the Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul in Aquidauana (UEMS). In the laboratory adults were placed in plastic containers with soil with sprouts of Brachiaria decumbens Stapf (Poaceae). Eggs were transferred to a climatized chamber at 26 ± 1º C with a 12hourlight, 12hour darkness photoperiod cycle. Adult flight activity occurred in August and in September to December from 06:00 pm to 06:00 am, with the largest number of individuals flying from 07:00 to 10:00 pm. Eggs measured 1 x 1.5 mm and were laid individually or in groups in soil chambers; eggs were initially white and became yellow near hatching. The embryonic period lasted 14.3 days; first, second and third instars lasted 28.5, 48.8, and 68.2 days, respectively. The prepupal period lasted 120.2 days and the prepupa stayed inactive in soil. The mean duration of pupal stage was 27.5 days and the mean longevity of adults was 23.6 days. In laboratory the calling behavior between males and females was observed; copulation lasted, in mean, 25 minutes.

A new host record for Philornis (Diptera, Muscidae)

The crested becard, Pachyramphus validus (Lichtenstein, 1823), is recorded, for the first time, as host of Philornis (Diptera, Muscidae). Subcutaneous larvae were collected in one nestling at the Floresta Nacional de Canela (Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil).

An evaluation of the life-cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior

In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare andretirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life-cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger.

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

How feeding on young and old leaves affects the performance of Ascia monuste orseis (Godart) (Lepidoptera, Pieridae)

In the field, immature individuals of Ascia monuste orseis (Godart), the kale caterpillars, migrate in great proportion to other regions of the host in order to complete their development; there, they find leaves of different ages and are exposed to the nutritional variation of these leaves. The objective of this study was to find out how the change to leaves of different ages affects the A. monuste orseis performance. The experiments were carried out providing one kind of leaf during the three first instars, and afterwards providing leaves of different ages during the fourth and fifth instars, since it is in these two instars that the changing movement prevails in that species. The parameters to measure performance were time of development (both to complete the three first instars and the fourth and fifth instars), ingestion of food, incorporated biomass, digestive indices that evaluated efficiency in food utilization, relative growth and intake rates, percentage of emergence, weight and size of the adults. In general, the caterpillars which were first fed on new leaves presented a better performance, but this study concluded that the A. monuste orseis caterpillars have shown skills to compensate food with lower nutritional value or less abundant in nature.

Are gall midge species (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae) host-plant specialists?

Despite the speciose fauna of gall-inducing insects in the Neotropical region, little is known about their taxonomy. On the other hand, gall morphotypes associated with host species have been extensively used as a surrogate of the inducer species worldwide. This study reviewed the described gall midges and their galls to test the generalization on the use of gall morphotypes as surrogates of gall midge species in the Brazilian fauna. We compiled taxonomic and biological data for 196 gall midge species recorded on 128 host plant species. Ninety two percent of those species were monophagous, inducing galls on a single host plant species, whereas only 5.6% species were oligophagous, inducing galls on more than one congeneric host plant species. Only four species induced galls on more than one host plant genus. We conclude that gall morphotypes associated with information on the host plant species and attacked organs are reliable surrogates of the gall-inducing species.

Gall midge attack intensity and host-plant response in a Neotropical coastal ecosystem

The gall inducer Clusiamyia nitida Maia, 1996 (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae) often infests the shrub Clusia lanceolata (Camb.) (Clusiaceae) in the Neotropical vegetation of restinga of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Leaves of Clusia lanceolata host up to 20 spheroid galls and show variation in their shape. We aimed to evaluate the effect of gall's intensity on leaves of Clusia lanceolata, and the extension of gall's impact on adjacent non-galled leaves. We analyzed the effect of the number of galls on leaf area, biomass, specific area and leaf appearance from 509 leaves of 14 individual plants. The results showed that differences of individual plants, pairs of leaves, and gall presence were responsible for more then 90% of variation on infested leaves. Variation on parasitic intensity level created differences in leaf response. Under moderate gall attack characterized by scattered galls on a leaf, the increase of the number of galls caused an increase of leaf biomass and area, and a decrease of specific area. The specific area was smaller also under high attack intensity, characterized by coalescent galls on a leaf. In those cases of extremely high parasitic intensity, galled leaves became deformed and the surface area was severely reduced. Leaf deformation due to gall attack led to early leaf abscission, indicated by the 90% of deformed leaves found in the youngest leaf pair of the branch. There was insufficient evidence that the impact of galls on leaf morpho-physiological parameters extended beyond the attacked leaves, because ungalled leaves did not change significantly when their opposite leaf had been galled.

Exposure of a single host (Chrysomya megacephala) (Calliphoridae) to different quantities of female parasitoids (Nasonia vitripennis) (Pteromalidae)

The aim of this study was to verify the duration of the development period, number of parasitoids produced per pupa, parasitism rate and sex ratio of Nasonia vitripennis (Hymenoptera, Pteromalidae), when they were exposed to a single host: Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera, Calliphoridae). One pupa was exposed in glass tubes to different numbers of female parasitoids (1, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11) during 48 h. Twenty replications/treatment were used, under controlled conditions (T= 27 °C day/ 25 °C night, 60 ± 10% RH). Statistical analysis of the data was made using the ANOVA test and the "a posteriori" comparisons were made using the Tukey-HSD test (both tests with a significance level of 5%). The duration of the development period was longer in treatments where a higher density of females per host was used. When five females per host were used, the mean number of parasitoids that emerged per pupa was higher. The data showed a tendency to a decrease in the amount of parasitoids emerged per host, especially of female, when used high quantities of female per host. Higher parasitism rates were observed in the 3:1 and 5:1 treatments and an increase in the percentage of unviable pupae was observed, probably due to an increase of female densities in the treatments, possibly a consequence of superparasitism.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Imitation of succesful behavior in Cournot markets

In an experimental standard Cournot Oligopoly we test the importance ofmodels of behavior characterized by imitation of succesful behavior. Wefind that the players appear to the rather reluctant to imitate.

First description of reproductive behavior of the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx rutilans (Rambur) (Odonata, Polythoridae)

Polythoridae comprise a widespread group of species in the New World tropics, but little is known about their behavior or life history. Here, we described the reproductive behavior of Amazonian Chalchopteryx rutilans, using mark-recapture techniques. Males were resident and territorial, though we found disputes (complex flight manoeuvres) to be rare. Trunks (rotting wood) were important to male persistence in sites, as these are the locations preferred by females for oviposition. The mating system of C. rutilans may be comparable to the resource limitation category, described by Conrad & Pritchard (1992), where males cannot control female access to oviposition sites. So, female choice becomes important and apparently, the observed displays (in which males flash the coppery coloration of their hind wings) may be related to attraction of females to territories, as in a lek system.