A low-order model investigation of the analysis of gravity waves in the ensemble Kalman filter.

The behavior of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is examined in the context of a model that exhibits a nonlinear chaotic (slow) vortical mode coupled to a linear (fast) gravity wave of a given amplitude and frequency. It is shown that accurate recovery of both modes is enhanced when covariances between fast and slow normal-mode variables (which reflect the slaving relations inherent in balanced dynamics) are modeled correctly. More ensemble members are needed to recover the fast, linear gravity wave than the slow, vortical motion. Although the EnKF tends to diverge in the analysis of the gravity wave, the filter divergence is stable and does not lead to a great loss of accuracy. Consequently, provided the ensemble is large enough and observations are made that reflect both time scales, the EnKF is able to recover both time scales more accurately than optimal interpolation (OI), which uses a static error covariance matrix. For OI it is also found to be problematic to observe the state at a frequency that is a subharmonic of the gravity wave frequency, a problem that is in part overcome by the EnKF.However, error in themodeled gravity wave parameters can be detrimental to the performance of the EnKF and remove its implied advantages, suggesting that a modified algorithm or a method for accounting for model error is needed.

A high frequency $hp$ boundary element method for scattering by convex polygons

In this paper we propose and analyze a hybrid $hp$ boundary element method for the solution of problems of high frequency acoustic scattering by sound-soft convex polygons, in which the approximation space is enriched with oscillatory basis functions which efficiently capture the high frequency asymptotics of the solution. We demonstrate, both theoretically and via numerical examples, exponential convergence with respect to the order of the polynomials, moreover providing rigorous error estimates for our approximations to the solution and to the far field pattern, in which the dependence on the frequency of all constants is explicit. Importantly, these estimates prove that, to achieve any desired accuracy in the computation of these quantities, it is sufficient to increase the number of degrees of freedom in proportion to the logarithm of the frequency as the frequency increases, in contrast to the at least linear growth required by conventional methods.

On the power amplifier nonlinearity in MIMO transmit beamforming systems

In this paper, single-carrier multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems in the presence of high-power amplifier (HPA) nonlinearity are investigated. Specifically, due to the suboptimality of the conventional maximal ratio transmission/maximal ratio combining (MRT/MRC) under HPA nonlinearity, we propose the optimal TB scheme with the optimal beamforming weight vector and combining vector, for MIMO systems with nonlinear HPAs. Moreover, an alternative suboptimal but much simpler TB scheme, namely, quantized equal gain transmission (QEGT), is proposed. The latter profits from the property that the elements of the beamforming weight vector have the same constant modulus. The performance of the proposed optimal TB scheme and QEGT/MRC technique in the presence of the HPA nonlinearity is evaluated in terms of the average symbol error probability and mutual information with the Gaussian input, considering the transmission over uncorrelated quasi-static frequency-flat Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects on the performance of several system parameters, namely, the HPA parameters, numbers of antennas, quadrature amplitude modulation modulation order, number of pilot symbols, and cardinality of the beamforming weight vector codebook for QEGT.

Analysis and compensation of power amplifier nonlinearity in MIMO transmit diversity systems

The nonlinearity of high-power amplifiers (HPAs) has a crucial effect on the performance of multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems. In this paper, we investigate the performance of MIMO orthogonal space-time block coding (OSTBC) systems in the presence of nonlinear HPAs. Specifically, we propose a constellation-based compensation method for HPA nonlinearity in the case with knowledge of the HPA parameters at the transmitter and receiver, where the constellation and decision regions of the distorted transmitted signal are derived in advance. Furthermore, in the scenario without knowledge of the HPA parameters, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based compensation method for the HPA nonlinearity is proposed, which first estimates the channel-gain matrix by means of the SMC method and then uses the SMC-based algorithm to detect the desired signal. The performance of the MIMO-OSTBC system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), total degradation (TD) and system capacity, in uncorrelated Nakagami-m fading channels. Numerical and simulation results are provided and show the effects on performance of several system parameters, such as the parameters of the HPA model, output back-off (OBO) of nonlinear HPA, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), and number of SMC samples. In particular, it is shown that the constellation-based compensation method can efficiently mitigate the effect of HPA nonlinearity with low complexity and that the SMC-based detection scheme is efficient to compensate for HPA nonlinearity in the case without knowledge of the HPA parameters.

Analysis and compensation for the joint effects of HPA nonlinearity, I/Q imbalance and crosstalk in MIMO beamforming systems

In this paper, we investigate the joint effects of high-power amplifier (HPA) nonlinearity, in-phase/quadrature-phase (I/Q) imbalance and crosstalk, on the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems, and propose a compensation method for the three impairments together. The performance of the MIMO TB system equipped with the proposed compensation scheme is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability and capacity when transmissions are performed over uncorrelated Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects on performance of several system parameters, namely, the HPA parameters, image-leakage ratio, crosstalk, numbers of antennas, length of pilot symbols and phase-shift keying modulation order.

Optimal beamforming in MIMO systems with HPA nonlinearity

In this paper, multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems under the consideration of nonlinear high-power amplifiers (HPAs) are investigated. The optimal beamforming scheme, with the optimal beamforming weight vector and combining vector, is proposed for MIMO systems with HPA nonlinearity. The performance of the proposed MIMO beamforming scheme in the presence of HPA nonlinearity is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), outage probability and system capacity, considering transmission over uncorrelated quasi-static frequency-flat Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, namely, parameters of nonlinear HPA, numbers of transmit and receive antennas, and modulation order of phase-shift keying (PSK), on performance.

Impact of HPA nonlinearity on MIMO systems with quantized equal gain transmission

In this paper, we investigate the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmit beamforming (TB) systems in the presence of nonlinear high-power amplifiers (HPAs). Due to the suboptimality of maximal ratio transmission/maximal ratio combining (MRT/MRC) under HPA nonlinearity, quantized equal gain transmission (QEGT) is suggested as a feasible TB scheme. The effect of HPA nonlinearity on the performance of MIMO QEGT/MRC is evaluated in terms of the average symbol error probability (SEP) and system capacity, considering transmission over uncorrelated quasi-static frequency-flat Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of several system parameters, such as the parameters of nonlinear HPA, cardinality of the beamforming weight vector codebook, and modulation order of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), on performance.

An analytical method for capacity dimensioning of WCDMA with high speed wireless link

Capacity dimensioning is one of the key problems in wireless network planning. Analytical and simulation methods are usually used to pursue the accurate capacity dimensioning of wireless network. In this paper, an analytical capacity dimensioning method for WCDMA with high speed wireless link is proposed based on the analysis on relations among system performance and high speed wireless transmission technologies, such as H-ARQ, AMC and fast scheduling. It evaluates system capacity in closed-form expressions from link level and system level. Numerical results show that the proposed method can calculate link level and system level capacity for WCDMA system with HSDPA and HSUPA.

High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120kyr

Interpretation of ice-core records is currently limited by paucity of modelling at adequate temporal and spatial resolutions. Several key questions relate to mechanisms of polar amplification and inter-hemispheric coupling on glacial/interglacial timescales. Here, we present the first results from a large set of global ocean–atmosphere climate model ‘snap-shot’ simulations covering the last 120 000 years using the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3) at up to 1 kyr temporal resolution. Two sets of simulations were performed in order to examine the roles of orbit and greenhouse gases versus ice-sheet forcing of orbital-scale climate change. A series of idealised Heinrich events were also simulated, but no changes to aerosols or vegetation were prescribed. This paper focuses on high latitudes and inter-hemispheric linkages. The simulations reproduce polar temperature trends well compared to ice-core reconstructions, although the magnitude is underestimated. Polar amplification varies with obliquity, but this variability is dampened by including variations in land ice coverage, while the overall amplification factor increases. The relatively constant amplification of Antarctic temperatures (with ice-sheet forcing included) suggests it is possible to use Antarctic temperature reconstructions to estimate global changes (which are roughly half the magnitude). Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation varies considerably only with the introduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but only weakens in the North Atlantic in the deep glacial, when ocean–sea-ice feedbacks result in the movement of the region of deep convection to lower latitudes and with the introduction of freshwater to the surface North Atlantic in order to simulate Heinrich events.

A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

The GODAE high resolution sea surface temperature pilot project

Sea surface temperature (SST) measurements are required by operational ocean and atmospheric forecasting systems to constrain modeled upper ocean circulation and thermal structure. The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) High Resolution SST Pilot Project (GHRSST-PP) was initiated to address these needs by coordinating the provision of accurate, high-resolution, SST products for the global domain. The pilot project is now complete, but activities continue within the Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST). The pilot project focused on harmonizing diverse satellite and in situ data streams that were indexed, processed, quality controlled, analyzed, and documented within a Regional/Global Task Sharing (R/GTS) framework implemented in an internationally distributed manner. Data with meaningful error estimates developed within GHRSST are provided by services within R/GTS. Currently, several terabytes of data are processed at international centers daily, creating more than 25 gigabytes of product. Ensemble SST analyses together with anomaly SST outputs are generated each day, providing confidence in SST analyses via diagnostic outputs. Diagnostic data sets are generated and Web interfaces are provided to monitor the quality of observation and analysis products. GHRSST research and development projects continue to tackle problems of instrument calibration, algorithm development, diurnal variability, skin temperature deviation, and validation/verification of GHRSST products. GHRSST also works closely with applications and users, providing a forum for discussion and feedback between SST users and producers on a regular basis. All data within the GHRSST R/GTS framework are freely available. This paper reviews the progress of GHRSST-PP, highlighting achievements that have been fundamental to the success of the pilot project.

3D cloud reconstructions: evaluation of scanning radar scan strategy with a view to surface shortwave radiation closure

The ability of six scanning cloud radar scan strategies to reconstruct cumulus cloud fields for radiation study is assessed. Utilizing snapshots of clean and polluted cloud fields from large eddy simulations, an analysis is undertaken of error in both the liquid water path and monochromatic downwelling surface irradiance at 870 nm of the reconstructed cloud fields. Error introduced by radar sensitivity, choice of radar scan strategy, retrieval of liquid water content (LWC), and reconstruction scheme is explored. Given an in␣nitely sensitive radar and perfect LWC retrieval, domain average surface irradiance biases are typically less than 3 W m␣2 ␣m␣1, corresponding to 5–10% of the cloud radiative effect (CRE). However, when using a realistic radar sensitivity of ␣37.5 dBZ at 1 km, optically thin areas and edges of clouds are dif␣cult to detect due to their low radar re-ectivity; in clean conditions, overestimates are of order 10 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~20% of the CRE), but in polluted conditions, where the droplets are smaller, this increases to 10–26 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~40–100% of the CRE). Drizzle drops are also problematic; if treated as cloud droplets, reconstructions are poor, leading to large underestimates of 20–46 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 in domain average surface irradiance (~40–80% of the CRE). Nevertheless, a synergistic retrieval approach combining the detailed cloud structure obtained from scanning radar with the droplet-size information and location of cloud base gained from other instruments would potentially make accurate solar radiative transfer calculations in broken cloud possible for the first time.

High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis is an efficient tool to genotype EMS mutants in complex crop genomes

Background: Targeted Induced Loci Lesions IN Genomes (TILLING) is increasingly being used to generate and identify mutations in target genes of crop genomes. TILLING populations of several thousand lines have been generated in a number of crop species including Brassica rapa. Genetic analysis of mutants identified by TILLING requires an efficient, high-throughput and cost effective genotyping method to track the mutations through numerous generations. High resolution melt (HRM) analysis has been used in a number of systems to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion/deletions (IN/DELs) enabling the genotyping of different types of samples. HRM is ideally suited to high-throughput genotyping of multiple TILLING mutants in complex crop genomes. To date it has been used to identify mutants and genotype single mutations. The aim of this study was to determine if HRM can facilitate downstream analysis of multiple mutant lines identified by TILLING in order to characterise allelic series of EMS induced mutations in target genes across a number of generations in complex crop genomes. Results: We demonstrate that HRM can be used to genotype allelic series of mutations in two genes, BraA.CAX1a and BraA.MET1.a in Brassica rapa. We analysed 12 mutations in BraA.CAX1.a and five in BraA.MET1.a over two generations including a back-cross to the wild-type. Using a commercially available HRM kit and the Lightscanner™ system we were able to detect mutations in heterozygous and homozygous states for both genes. Conclusions: Using HRM genotyping on TILLING derived mutants, it is possible to generate an allelic series of mutations within multiple target genes rapidly. Lines suitable for phenotypic analysis can be isolated approximately 8-9 months (3 generations) from receiving M3 seed of Brassica rapa from the RevGenUK TILLING service.

Representativity error for temperature and humidity using the Met Office high-resolution model

The observation-error covariance matrix used in data assimilation contains contributions from instrument errors, representativity errors and errors introduced by the approximated observation operator. Forward model errors arise when the observation operator does not correctly model the observations or when observations can resolve spatial scales that the model cannot. Previous work to estimate the observation-error covariance matrix for particular observing instruments has shown that it contains signifcant correlations. In particular, correlations for humidity data are more significant than those for temperature. However it is not known what proportion of these correlations can be attributed to the representativity errors. In this article we apply an existing method for calculating representativity error, previously applied to an idealised system, to NWP data. We calculate horizontal errors of representativity for temperature and humidity using data from the Met Office high-resolution UK variable resolution model. Our results show that errors of representativity are correlated and more significant for specific humidity than temperature. We also find that representativity error varies with height. This suggests that the assimilation scheme may be improved if these errors are explicitly included in a data assimilation scheme. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

High resolution simulation of the variability of surface energy balance fluxes across central London with urban zones for energy partitioning

The parameterization of surface heat-flux variability in urban areas relies on adequate representation of surface characteristics. Given the horizontal resolutions (e.g. ≈0.1–1km) currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, properties of the urban surface (e.g. vegetated/built surfaces, street-canyon geometries) often have large spatial variability. Here, a new approach based on Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) is tested within a NWP model (Weather Research and Forecasting model;WRF v3.2.1) for Greater London. The urban land-surface scheme is the Noah/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). Detailed surface information (horizontal resolution 1 km)in central London shows that the UZE offers better characterization of surface properties and their variability compared to default WRF-SLUCM input parameters. In situ observations of the surface energy fluxes and near-surface meteorological variables are used to select the radiation and turbulence parameterization schemes and to evaluate the land-surface scheme