Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Entropy Production In Thermodynamic Climate Models

We present a non-equilibrium theory in a system with heat and radiative fluxes. The obtained expression for the entropy production is applied to a simple one-dimensional climate model based on the first law of thermodynamics. In the model, the dissipative fluxes are assumed to be independent variables, following the criteria of the Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (BIT) that enlarges, in reference to the classical expression, the applicability of a macroscopic thermodynamic theory for systems far from equilibrium. We analyze the second differential of the classical and the generalized entropy as a criteria of stability of the steady states. Finally, the extreme state is obtained using variational techniques and observing that the system is close to the maximum dissipation rate

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

A surface-based approach to quantify local cortical gyrification.

The high complexity of cortical convolutions in humans is very challenging both for engineers to measure and compare it, and for biologists and physicians to understand it. In this paper, we propose a surface-based method for the quantification of cortical gyrification. Our method uses accurate 3-D cortical reconstruction and computes local measurements of gyrification at thousands of points over the whole cortical surface. The potential of our method to identify and localize precisely gyral abnormalities is illustrated by a clinical study on a group of children affected by 22q11 Deletion Syndrome, compared to control individuals.

Decoding stimulus-related information from single-trial EEG responses based on voltage topographies

Neuroimaging studies typically compare experimental conditions using average brain responses, thereby overlooking the stimulus-related information conveyed by distributed spatio-temporal patterns of single-trial responses. Here, we take advantage of this rich information at a single-trial level to decode stimulus-related signals in two event-related potential (ERP) studies. Our method models the statistical distribution of the voltage topographies with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which reduces the dataset to a number of representative voltage topographies. The degree of presence of these topographies across trials at specific latencies is then used to classify experimental conditions. We tested the algorithm using a cross-validation procedure in two independent EEG datasets. In the first ERP study, we classified left- versus right-hemifield checkerboard stimuli for upper and lower visual hemifields. In a second ERP study, when functional differences cannot be assumed, we classified initial versus repeated presentations of visual objects. With minimal a priori information, the GMM model provides neurophysiologically interpretable features - vis à vis voltage topographies - as well as dynamic information about brain function. This method can in principle be applied to any ERP dataset testing the functional relevance of specific time periods for stimulus processing, the predictability of subject's behavior and cognitive states, and the discrimination between healthy and clinical populations.

Workgroup report: incorporating in vitro alternative methods for developmental neurotoxicity into international hazard and risk assessment strategies.

This is the report of the first workshop on Incorporating In Vitro Alternative Methods for Developmental Neurotoxicity (DNT) Testing into International Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategies, held in Ispra, Italy, on 19-21 April 2005. The workshop was hosted by the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) and jointly organized by ECVAM, the European Chemical Industry Council, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing. The primary aim of the workshop was to identify and catalog potential methods that could be used to assess how data from in vitro alternative methods could help to predict and identify DNT hazards. Working groups focused on two different aspects: a) details on the science available in the field of DNT, including discussions on the models available to capture the critical DNT mechanisms and processes, and b) policy and strategy aspects to assess the integration of alternative methods in a regulatory framework. This report summarizes these discussions and details the recommendations and priorities for future work.

The effects of physiologically plausible connectivity structure on local and global dynamics in large scale brain models.

Functionally relevant large scale brain dynamics operates within the framework imposed by anatomical connectivity and time delays due to finite transmission speeds. To gain insight on the reliability and comparability of large scale brain network simulations, we investigate the effects of variations in the anatomical connectivity. Two different sets of detailed global connectivity structures are explored, the first extracted from the CoCoMac database and rescaled to the spatial extent of the human brain, the second derived from white-matter tractography applied to diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI) for a human subject. We use the combination of graph theoretical measures of the connection matrices and numerical simulations to explicate the importance of both connectivity strength and delays in shaping dynamic behaviour. Our results demonstrate that the brain dynamics derived from the CoCoMac database are more complex and biologically more realistic than the one based on the DSI database. We propose that the reason for this difference is the absence of directed weights in the DSI connectivity matrix.

Predicting the potential for lightning activity in mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0 C and 20 C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.

Native homing endonucleases can target conserved genes in humans and in animal models.

In recent years, both homing endonucleases (HEases) and zinc-finger nucleases (ZFNs) have been engineered and selected for the targeting of desired human loci for gene therapy. However, enzyme engineering is lengthy and expensive and the off-target effect of the manufactured endonucleases is difficult to predict. Moreover, enzymes selected to cleave a human DNA locus may not cleave the homologous locus in the genome of animal models because of sequence divergence, thus hampering attempts to assess the in vivo efficacy and safety of any engineered enzyme prior to its application in human trials. Here, we show that naturally occurring HEases can be found, that cleave desirable human targets. Some of these enzymes are also shown to cleave the homologous sequence in the genome of animal models. In addition, the distribution of off-target effects may be more predictable for native HEases. Based on our experimental observations, we present the HomeBase algorithm, database and web server that allow a high-throughput computational search and assignment of HEases for the targeting of specific loci in the human and other genomes. We validate experimentally the predicted target specificity of candidate fungal, bacterial and archaeal HEases using cell free, yeast and archaeal assays.

The application of trend surface models to the analysis of time factors in Swiss cancer mortality.

To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.

Low income, community poverty and risk of end stage renal disease

BACKGROUND: The risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) is increased among individuals with low income and in low income communities. However, few studies have examined the relation of both individual and community socioeconomic status (SES) with incident ESRD. METHODS: Among 23,314 U.S. adults in the population-based Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study, we assessed participant differences across geospatially-linked categories of county poverty [outlier poverty, extremely high poverty, very high poverty, high poverty, neither (reference), high affluence and outlier affluence]. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of annual household income and geospatially-linked county poverty measures with incident ESRD, while accounting for death as a competing event using the Fine and Gray method. RESULTS: There were 158 ESRD cases during follow-up. Incident ESRD rates were 178.8 per 100,000 person-years (105 py) in high poverty outlier counties and were 76.3 /105 py in affluent outlier counties, p trend = 0.06. In unadjusted competing risk models, persons residing in high poverty outlier counties had higher incidence of ESRD (which was not statistically significant) when compared to those persons residing in counties with neither high poverty nor affluence [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.75-3.20]. This association was markedly attenuated following adjustment for socio-demographic factors (age, sex, race, education, and income); HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.46-2.00. However, in the same adjusted model, income was independently associated with risk of ESRD [HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.62-8.64, comparing the < $20,000 income group to the > $75,000 group]. There were no statistically significant associations of county measures of poverty with incident ESRD, and no evidence of effect modification. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to annual family income, geospatially-linked measures of county poverty have little relation with risk of ESRD. Efforts to mitigate socioeconomic disparities in kidney disease may be best appropriated at the individual level.

Les set vides del paper: formats de presentació i models de distribució en línia dels treballs publicats en revistes científiques digitals

Study of the publication models and the means of accessing scientific literature in the current environment of digital communication and the web. The text introduces the concept of journal article as a well-defined and stable unit within the publishing world, and as a nucleus on which professional and scholarly communication has been based since its beginnings in the 17th century. The transformation of scientific communication that the digital world has enabled is analysed. Descriptions are provided of some of the practices undertaken by authors, research organisations, publishers and library-related institutions as a response to the new possibilities being unveiled for articles, both as products as well as for their creation and distribution processes. These transformations affect the very nature of articles as a minimal unit -both unique and stable- of scientific communication. The article concludes by noting that under varying documentary forms of publisher aggregation and bibliographic control -sometimes simultaneously and, even, apparently contradictory- there flourishes a more pluralistic type of scientific communication. This pluralism offers: more possibilities for communication among authors; fewer levels of intermediaries such as agents that intervene and provide added value to the products; greater availability for users both economically speaking and from the point of view of access; and greater interaction and wealth of contents, thanks to the new hypertext and multimedia possibilities.

RNA-based gene duplication: mechanistic and evolutionary insights.

Gene copies that stem from the mRNAs of parental source genes have long been viewed as evolutionary dead-ends with little biological relevance. Here we review a range of recent studies that have unveiled a significant number of functional retroposed gene copies in both mammalian and some non-mammalian genomes. These studies have not only revealed previously unknown mechanisms for the emergence of new genes and their functions but have also provided fascinating general insights into molecular and evolutionary processes that have shaped genomes. For example, analyses of chromosomal gene movement patterns via RNA-based gene duplication have shed fresh light on the evolutionary origin and biology of our sex chromosomes.

Risk of cardiovascular events and blood pressure control in hypertensive HIV-infected patients: Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of hypertension in HIV infection is high, and information on blood pressure control in HIV-infected individuals is insufficient. We modeled blood pressure over time and the risk of cardiovascular events in hypertensive HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: All patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with confirmed hypertension (systolic or diastolic blood pressure above 139 or 89 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and presence of at least 1 additional cardiovascular risk factor) between April 1, 2000 and March 31, 2011 were included. Patients with previous cardiovascular events, already on antihypertensive drugs, and pregnant women were excluded. Change in blood pressure over time was modeled using linear mixed models with repeated measurement. RESULTS: Hypertension was diagnosed in 2595 of 10,361 eligible patients. Of those, 869 initiated antihypertensive treatment. For patients treated for hypertension, we found a mean (95% confidence interval) decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure of -0.82 (-1.06 to -0.58) mm Hg and -0.89 (-1.05 to -0.73) mm Hg/yr, respectively. Factors associated with a decline in systolic blood pressure were baseline blood pressure, presence of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, and the typical risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In patients with hypertension, increase in systolic blood pressure [(hazard ratio 1.18 (1.06 to 1.32) per 10 mm Hg increase], total cholesterol, smoking, age, and cumulative exposure to protease inhibitor-based and triple nucleoside regimens were associated with cardiovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: Insufficient control of hypertension was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events indicating the need for improved management of hypertension in HIV-infected individuals.

Regional specificity of MRI contrast parameter changes in normal ageing revealed by voxel-based quantification (VBQ).

Normal ageing is associated with characteristic changes in brain microstructure. Although in vivo neuroimaging captures spatial and temporal patterns of age-related changes of anatomy at the macroscopic scale, our knowledge of the underlying (patho)physiological processes at cellular and molecular levels is still limited. The aim of this study is to explore brain tissue properties in normal ageing using quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) alongside conventional morphological assessment. Using a whole-brain approach in a cohort of 26 adults, aged 18-85years, we performed voxel-based morphometric (VBM) analysis and voxel-based quantification (VBQ) of diffusion tensor, magnetization transfer (MT), R1, and R2* relaxation parameters. We found age-related reductions in cortical and subcortical grey matter volume paralleled by changes in fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), MT and R2*. The latter were regionally specific depending on their differential sensitivity to microscopic tissue properties. VBQ of white matter revealed distinct anatomical patterns of age-related change in microstructure. Widespread and profound reduction in MT contrasted with local FA decreases paralleled by MD increases. R1 reductions and R2* increases were observed to a smaller extent in overlapping occipito-parietal white matter regions. We interpret our findings, based on current biophysical models, as a fingerprint of age-dependent brain atrophy and underlying microstructural changes in myelin, iron deposits and water. The VBQ approach we present allows for systematic unbiased exploration of the interaction between imaging parameters and extends current methods for detection of neurodegenerative processes in the brain. The demonstrated parameter-specific distribution patterns offer insights into age-related brain structure changes in vivo and provide essential baseline data for studying disease against a background of healthy ageing.