905 resultados para HIDDEN-MARKOV MODEL


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Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

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In the era of climate change sustainable urban development and in particular provision of sustainable urban infrastructure has become a key concept in dealing with environmental challenges. This paper discusses issues affecting stormwater quality and introduces a new indexing model that is to be used in evaluation of the stormwater quality in urban areas. The model has recently been developed and will be tested in a number of pilot projects in the Gold Coast, one of the fastest growing and environmentally challenged cities of Australia.

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A bioactive and bioresorbable scaffold fabricated from medical grade poly (epsilon-caprolactone) and incorporating 20% beta-tricalcium phosphate (mPCL–TCP) was recently developed for bone regeneration at load bearing sites. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate bone ingrowth into mPCL–TCP in a large animal model of lumbar interbody fusion. Six pigs underwent a 2-level (L3/4; L5/6) anterior lumbar interbody fusion (ALIF) implanted with mPCL–TCP þ 0.6 mg rhBMP-2 as treatment group while four other pigs implanted with autogenous bone graft served as control. Computed tomographic scanning and histology revealed complete defect bridging in all (100%) specimen from the treatment group as early as 3 months. Histological evidence of continuing bone remodeling and maturation was observed at 6 months. In the control group, only partial bridging was observed at 3 months and only 50% of segments in this group showed complete defect bridging at 6 months. Furthermore, 25% of segments in the control group showed evidence of graft fracture, resorption and pseudoarthrosis. In contrast, no evidence of graft fractures, pseudoarthrosis or foreign body reaction was observed in the treatment group. These results reveal that mPCL–TCP scaffolds could act as bone graft substitutes by providing a suitable environment for bone regeneration in a dynamic load bearing setting such as in a porcine model of interbody spine fusion.

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Currently, well-established clinical therapeutic approaches for bone reconstruction are restricted to the transplantation of autografts and allografts, and the implantation of metal devices or ceramic-based implants to assist bone regeneration. Bone grafts possess osteoconductive and osteoinductive properties, however they are limited in access and availability and associated with donor site morbidity, haemorrhage, risk of infection, insufficient transplant integration, graft devitalisation, and subsequent resorption resulting in decreased mechanical stability. As a result, recent research focuses on the development of alternative therapeutic concepts. The field of tissue engineering has emerged as an important approach to bone regeneration. However, bench to bedside translations are still infrequent as the process towards approval by regulatory bodies is protracted and costly, requiring both comprehensive in vitro and in vivo studies. The subsequent gap between research and clinical translation, hence commercialization, is referred to as the ‘Valley of Death’ and describes a large number of projects and/or ventures that are ceased due to a lack of funding during the transition from product/technology development to regulatory approval and subsequently commercialization. One of the greatest difficulties in bridging the Valley of Death is to develop good manufacturing processes (GMP) and scalable designs and to apply these in pre-clinical studies. In this article, we describe part of the rationale and road map of how our multidisciplinary research team has approached the first steps to translate orthopaedic bone engineering from bench to bedside byestablishing a pre-clinical ovine critical-sized tibial segmental bone defect model and discuss our preliminary data relating to this decisive step.

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Queensland University of Technology (QUT) is faced with a rapidly growing research agenda built upon a strategic research capacity-building program. This presentation will outline the results of a project that has recently investigated QUT’s research support requirements and which has developed a model for the support of eResearch across the university. QUT’s research building strategy has produced growth at the faculty level and within its research institutes. This increased research activity is pushing the need for university-wide eResearch platforms capable of providing infrastructure and support in areas such as collaboration, data, networking, authentication and authorisation, workflows and the grid. One of the driving forces behind the investigation is data-centric nature of modern research. It is now critical that researchers have access to supported infrastructure that allows the collection, analysis, aggregation and sharing of large data volumes for exploration and mining in order to gain new insights and to generate new knowledge. However, recent surveys into current research data management practices by the Australian Partnership for Sustainable Repositories (APSR) and by QUT itself, has revealed serious shortcomings in areas such as research data management, especially its long term maintenance for reuse and authoritative evidence of research findings. While these internal university pressures are building, at the same time there are external pressures that are magnifying them. For example, recent compliance guidelines from bodies such as the ARC, and NHMRC and Universities Australia indicate that institutions need to provide facilities for the safe and secure storage of research data along with a surrounding set of policies, on its retention, ownership and accessibility. The newly formed Australian National Data Service (ANDS) is developing strategies and guidelines for research data management and research institutions are a central focus, responsible for managing and storing institutional data on platforms that can be federated nationally and internationally for wider use. For some time QUT has recognised the importance of eResearch and has been active in a number of related areas: ePrints to digitally publish research papers, grid computing portals and workflows, institutional-wide provisioning and authentication systems, and legal protocols for copyright management. QUT also has two widely recognised centres focused on fundamental research into eResearch itself: The OAK LAW project (Open Access to Knowledge) which focuses upon legal issues relating eResearch and the Microsoft QUT eResearch Centre whose goal is to accelerate scientific research discovery, through new smart software. In order to better harness all of these resources and improve research outcomes, the university recently established a project to investigate how it might better organise the support of eResearch. This presentation will outline the project outcomes, which include a flexible and sustainable eResearch support service model addressing short and longer term research needs, identification of resource requirements required to establish and sustain the service, and the development of research data management policies and implementation plans.