From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

An Experimental Validation of a Statistical-Based Damage Detection Approach, January 2011

In this work, a previously-developed, statistical-based, damage-detection approach was validated for its ability to autonomously detect damage in bridges. The damage-detection approach uses statistical differences in the actual and predicted behavior of the bridge caused under a subset of ambient trucks. The predicted behavior is derived from a statistics-based model trained with field data from the undamaged bridge (not a finite element model). The differences between actual and predicted responses, called residuals, are then used to construct control charts, which compare undamaged and damaged structure data. Validation of the damage-detection approach was achieved by using sacrificial specimens that were mounted to the bridge and exposed to ambient traffic loads and which simulated actual damage-sensitive locations. Different damage types and levels were introduced to the sacrificial specimens to study the sensitivity and applicability. The damage-detection algorithm was able to identify damage, but it also had a high false-positive rate. An evaluation of the sub-components of the damage-detection methodology and methods was completed for the purpose of improving the approach. Several of the underlying assumptions within the algorithm were being violated, which was the source of the false-positives. Furthermore, the lack of an automatic evaluation process was thought to potentially be an impediment to widespread use. Recommendations for the improvement of the methodology were developed and preliminarily evaluated. These recommendations are believed to improve the efficacy of the damage-detection approach.

Treatment results and prognostic factors in primary thyroid lymphoma patients: a rare cancer network study.

Background: This study analyzed prognostic factors and treatment outcomes of primary thyroid lymphoma. Patients and Methods: Data were retrospectively collected for 87 patients (53 stage I and 34 stage II) with median age 65 years. Fifty-two patients were treated with single modality (31 with chemotherapy alone and 21 with radiotherapy alone) and 35 with combined modality treatment. Median follow-up was 51 months. Results: Sixty patients had aggressive lymphoma and 27 had indolent lymphoma. The 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 74% and 71%, respectively, and the disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 68% and 64%. Univariate analysis revealed that age, tumor size, stage, lymph node involvement, B symptoms, and treatment modality were prognostic factors for OS, DFS, and local control (LC). Patients with thyroiditis had significantly better LC rates. In multivariate analysis, OS was influenced by age, B symptoms, lymph node involvement, and tumor size, whereas DFS and LC were influenced by B symptoms and tumor size. Compared with single modality treatment, patients treated with combined modality had better 5-year OS, DFS, and LC. Conclusions: Combined modality leads to an excellent prognosis for patients with aggressive lymphoma but does not improve OS and LC in patients with indolent lymphoma.

Statistical Modeling of the Eye for Multimodal Treatment Planning for External Beam Radiation Therapy of Intraocular Tumors.

PURPOSE: Ocular anatomy and radiation-associated toxicities provide unique challenges for external beam radiation therapy. For treatment planning, precise modeling of organs at risk and tumor volume are crucial. Development of a precise eye model and automatic adaptation of this model to patients' anatomy remain problematic because of organ shape variability. This work introduces the application of a 3-dimensional (3D) statistical shape model as a novel method for precise eye modeling for external beam radiation therapy of intraocular tumors. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Manual and automatic segmentations were compared for 17 patients, based on head computed tomography (CT) volume scans. A 3D statistical shape model of the cornea, lens, and sclera as well as of the optic disc position was developed. Furthermore, an active shape model was built to enable automatic fitting of the eye model to CT slice stacks. Cross-validation was performed based on leave-one-out tests for all training shapes by measuring dice coefficients and mean segmentation errors between automatic segmentation and manual segmentation by an expert. RESULTS: Cross-validation revealed a dice similarity of 95% ± 2% for the sclera and cornea and 91% ± 2% for the lens. Overall, mean segmentation error was found to be 0.3 ± 0.1 mm. Average segmentation time was 14 ± 2 s on a standard personal computer. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the solution presented outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Moreover, the eye model shape as well as its variability is learned from a training set rather than by making shape assumptions (eg, as with the spherical or elliptical model). Therefore, the model appears to be capable of modeling nonspherically and nonelliptically shaped eyes.

MDCT arthrography of the hip: value of the adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction technique and potential for radiation dose reduction.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to assess the effect of the adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) technique on image quality in hip MDCT arthrography and to evaluate its potential for reducing radiation dose. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Thirty-seven patients examined with hip MDCT arthrography were prospectively randomized into three different protocols: one with a regular dose (volume CT dose index [CTDIvol], 38.4 mGy) and two with a reduced dose (CTDIvol, 24.6 or 15.4 mGy). Images were reconstructed using filtered back projection (FBP) and four increasing percentages of ASIR (30%, 50%, 70%, and 90%). Image noise and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) were measured. Two musculoskeletal radiologists independently evaluated several anatomic structures and image quality parameters using a 4-point scale. They also jointly assessed acetabular labrum tears and articular cartilage lesions. RESULTS: With decreasing radiation dose level, image noise statistically significantly increased (p=0.0009) and CNR statistically significantly decreased (p=0.001). We also found a statistically significant reduction in noise (p=0.0001) and increase in CNR (p≤0.003) with increasing percentage of ASIR; in addition, we noted statistically significant increases in image quality scores for the labrum and cartilage, subchondral bone, overall diagnostic quality (up to 50% ASIR), and subjective noise (p≤0.04), and statistically significant reductions for the trabecular bone and muscles (p≤0.03). Regardless of the radiation dose level, there were no statistically significant differences in the detection and characterization of labral tears (n=24; p=1) and cartilage lesions (n=40; p≥0.89) depending on the ASIR percentage. CONCLUSION: The use of up to 50% ASIR in hip MDCT arthrography helps to reduce radiation dose by approximately 35-60%, while maintaining diagnostic image quality comparable to that of a regular-dose protocol using FBP.

Early Stage Primary Bone Lymphoma: A Retrospective, Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S): Primary bone lymphoma (PBL) represents less than 1% of all malignant lymphomas, and 4-5% of all extranodal lymphomas. In this study, we assessed the disease profile, outcome, and prognostic factors in patients with stage I and II PBL. MATERIALS/METHODS: Between 1987 and 2008, 116 consecutive patients with PBL treated in 13 RCNinstitutions were included in this study. Inclusion criteriawere: age.17 yrs, PBLin stage I and II, andminimum6months follow-up. The median agewas 51 yrs (range: 17-93).Diagnosticwork-up included plain boneXray (74%of patients), scintigraphy (62%), CT-scan (65%),MRI (58%), PET (18%), and bone-marrow biopsy (84%).All patients had biopsy-proven confirmation of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). The histopathological type was predominantly diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (78%) and follicular lymphoma (6%), according to theWHOclassification. One hundred patients had a high-grade, 7 intermediate and 9 low-gradeNHL. Ninety-three patients had anAnn-Arbor stage I, and 23 had a stage II. Seventy-seven patients underwent chemoradiotherapy (CXRT), 12 radiotherapy (RT) alone, 10 chemotherapy alone (CXT), 9 surgery followed by CXRT, 5 surgery followed by CXT, and 2 surgery followed by RT. One patient died before treatment.Median RT dosewas 40Gy (range: 4-60).Themedian number ofCXTcycleswas 6 (range, : 2-8).Median follow-upwas 41months (range: 6-242). RESULTS: Following treatment, the overall response rate was 91% (CR 74%, PR 17%). Local recurrence was observed in 12 (10%) patients, and systemic recurrence in 17 (15%) patients. Causes of death included disease progression in 16, unrelated disease in 6, CXT-related toxicity in 1, and secondary cancer in 2 patients. The 5-yr overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), lymphoma- specific survival (LSS), and local control (LC) were 76%, 69%, 78%, and 92%, respectively. In univariate analyses (log-rank test), favorable prognostic factors for survival were: age\50 years (p = 0.008), IPI score #1 (p = 0.009), complete response (p\0.001), CXT (p = 0.008), number of CXT cycles $6 (p = 0.007), and RT dose . 40 Gy (p = 0.005). In multivariate analysis age, RT dose, complete response, and absence of B symptoms were independent factors influencing the outcome. There were 3 patients developing grade 3 or more (CTCAE.V3.0) toxicities. CONCLUSIONS: This large multicenter study, confirms the relatively good prognosis of early stage PBL, treated with combined CXRT. Local control was excellent, and systemic failure occurred infrequently. A sufficient dose of RT (. 40 Gy) and complete CXT regime (. 6 cycles) were associated with a better outcome. Combined modality appears to be the treatment of choice.

Reproducibility of species lists, visual cover estimates and frequency methods for recording high mountain vegetation

Question: When multiple observers record the same spatial units of alpine vegetation, how much variation is there in the records and what are the consequences of this variation for monitoring schemes to detect change? Location: One test summit in Switzerland (Alps) and one test summit in Scotland (Cairngorm Mountains). Method: Eight observers used the GLORIA protocols for species composition and visual cover estimates in percent on large summit sections (>100 m2) and species composition and frequency in nested quadrats (1 m2). Results: The multiple records from the same spatial unit for species composition and species cover showed considerable variation in the two countries. Estimates of pseudoturnover of composition and coefficients of variation of cover estimates for vascular plant species in 1m x 1m quadrats showed less variation than in previously published reports whereas our results in larger sections were broadly in line with previous reports. In Scotland, estimates for bryophytes and lichens were more variable than for vascular plants. Conclusions: Statistical power calculations indicated that, unless large numbers of plots were used, changes in cover or frequency were only likely to be detected for abundant species (exceeding 10% cover) or if relative changes were large (50% or more). Lower variation could be reached with the point methods and with larger numbers of small plots. However, as summits often strongly differ from each other, supplementary summits cannot be considered as a way of increasing statistical power without introducing a supplementary component of variance into the analysis and hence the power calculations.

Methods for Determining Frequency- and Region-Dependent Relationships Between Estimated LFPs and BOLD Responses in Humans

The relationship between electrophysiological and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals remains poorly understood. To date, studies have required invasive methods and have been limited to single functional regions and thus cannot account for possible variations across brain regions. Here we present a method that uses fMRI data and singe-trial electroencephalography (EEG) analyses to assess the spatial and spectral dependencies between the blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) responses and the noninvasively estimated local field potentials (eLFPs) over a wide range of frequencies (0-256 Hz) throughout the entire brain volume. This method was applied in a study where human subjects completed separate fMRI and EEG sessions while performing a passive visual task. Intracranial LFPs were estimated from the scalp-recorded data using the ELECTRA source model. We compared statistical images from BOLD signals with statistical images of each frequency of the eLFPs. In agreement with previous studies in animals, we found a significant correspondence between LFP and BOLD statistical images in the gamma band (44-78 Hz) within primary visual cortices. In addition, significant correspondence was observed at low frequencies (<14 Hz) and also at very high frequencies (>100 Hz). Effects within extrastriate visual areas showed a different correspondence that not only included those frequency ranges observed in primary cortices but also additional frequencies. Results therefore suggest that the relationship between electrophysiological and hemodynamic signals thus might vary both as a function of frequency and anatomical region.

Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction reduces patient radiation dose in neuroradiology CT studies.

INTRODUCTION: Adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) can decrease image noise, thereby generating CT images of comparable diagnostic quality with less radiation. The purpose of this study is to quantify the effect of systematic use of ASIR versus filtered back projection (FBP) for neuroradiology CT protocols on patients' radiation dose and image quality. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of ASIR on six types of neuroradiologic CT studies: adult and pediatric unenhanced head CT, adult cervical spine CT, adult cervical and intracranial CT angiography, adult soft tissue neck CT with contrast, and adult lumbar spine CT. For each type of CT study, two groups of 100 consecutive studies were retrospectively reviewed: 100 studies performed with FBP and 100 studies performed with ASIR/FBP blending factor of 40 %/60 % with appropriate noise indices. The weighted volume CT dose index (CTDIvol), dose-length product (DLP) and noise were recorded. Each study was also reviewed for image quality by two reviewers. Continuous and categorical variables were compared by t test and free permutation test, respectively. RESULTS: For adult unenhanced brain CT, CT cervical myelography, cervical and intracranial CT angiography and lumbar spine CT both CTDIvol and DLP were lowered by up to 10.9 % (p < 0.001), 17.9 % (p = 0.005), 20.9 % (p < 0.001), and 21.7 % (p = 0.001), respectively, by using ASIR compared with FBP alone. Image quality and noise were similar for both FBP and ASIR. CONCLUSION: We recommend routine use of iterative reconstruction for neuroradiology CT examinations because this approach affords a significant dose reduction while preserving image quality.

Giant cell arteritis: A rare cause of posterior vasculitis.

PURPOSE: To report three cases of posterior vasculitis associated with subacute giant cell arteritis (GCA). METHODS: Three patients with decreased vision underwent complete ophthalmologic examination and fluorescein angiography. RESULTS: All patients presented posterior vasculitis. Patient 1 had an erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) of 38 mm/hr and a C-reactive protein (CRP) of 28mg/L. Patient 2 and 3 had an ESR of 104 and 95 mm/hr and a CRP of 42 and 195 mg/L accordingly. Diagnosis was established by temporal artery biopsy. Resolution was observed after systemic prednisolone therapy. CONCLUSION: GCA should be suspected when posterior vasculitis and relatively high ESR and CRP are present.

Supracerebellar arachnoid cyst - A rare cause of acquired Chiari I malformation.

Chiari I malformation (CM) associated with a cervico-thoracic syrinx due to supracerebellar arachnoid cyst has not been reported in the literature. We report such a case, managed by fenestration of the arachnoid cyst and foramen magnum decompression (FMD), aiming to reduce the inferiorly directed pressure on the cerebellum and eliminate the craniospinal pressure dissociation respectively. Imaging done post-operatively showed upward displacement of the cerebellar tonsils with a decompressed craniovertebral junction and disappearance of the syrinx.

Statistical assessment of dataset shift and model portability in multi-angle in-track image acquisitions

In this study we propose an evaluation of the angular effects altering the spectral response of the land-cover over multi-angle remote sensing image acquisitions. The shift in the statistical distribution of the pixels observed in an in-track sequence of WorldView-2 images is analyzed by means of a kernel-based measure of distance between probability distributions. Afterwards, the portability of supervised classifiers across the sequence is investigated by looking at the evolution of the classification accuracy with respect to the changing observation angle. In this context, the efficiency of various physically and statistically based preprocessing methods in obtaining angle-invariant data spaces is compared and possible synergies are discussed.

Management of adenoid cystic carcinoma of the breast: a Rare Cancer Network study.

BACKGROUND: Mammary adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is a rare breast cancer. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess prognostic factors and patterns of failure, as well as the role of radiation therapy (RT), in ACC.¦METHODS: Between January 1980 and December 2007, 61 women with breast ACC were treated at participating centers of the Rare Cancer Network. Surgery consisted of lumpectomy in 41 patients and mastectomy in 20 patients. There were 51(84%) stage pN0 and 10 stage cN0 (16%) patients. Postoperative RT was administered to 40 patients (35 after lumpectomy, 5 after mastectomy).¦RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 79 months (range, 6-285), 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88%-100%) and 82% (95% CI, 71%-93%), respectively. The 5-year locoregional control (LRC) rate was 95% (95% CI, 89%-100%). Axillary lymph node dissection or sentinel node biopsy was performed in 84% of cases. All patients had stage pN0 disease. In univariate analysis, survival was not influenced by the type of surgery or the use of postoperative RT. The 5-year LRC rate was 100% in the mastectomy group versus 93% (95% CI, 83%-100%) in the breast-conserving surgery group, respectively (p = 0.16). For the breast-conserving surgery group, the use of RT significantly correlated with LRC (p = 0.03); the 5-year LRC rates were 95% (95% CI, 86%-100%) for the RT group versus 83% (95% CI, 54%-100%) for the group receiving no RT. No local failures occurred in patients with positive margins, all of whom received postoperative RT.¦CONCLUSION: Breast-conserving surgery is the treatment of choice for patients with ACC breast cancer. Axillary lymph node dissection or sentinel node biopsy might not be recommended. Postoperative RT should be proposed in the case of breast-conserving surgery.

Iterative statistical reconstruction method: A new way to reduce dose in pediatric cardiac CT

Purpose: Although several approaches have been already used to reduce radiation dose, CT doses are still among the high doses in radio-diagnostic. Recently, General Electric introduced a new imaging reconstruction technique, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR), allows to taking into account the statistical fluctuation of noise. The benefits of ASIR method were assessed through classic metrics and the evaluations of cardiac structures by radiologists. Methods and materials: A 64-row CT (MDCT) was employed. Catphan600 phantom acquisitions and 10 routine-dose CT examinations performed at 80 kVp were reconstructed with FBP and with 50% of ASIR. Six radiologists then assessed the visibility of main cardiac structures using the visual grading analysis (VGA) method. Results: On phantoms, for a constant value of SD (25 HU), CTDIvol is divided by 2 (8 mGy to 4 mGy) when 50% of ASIR is used. At constant CTDIvol, MTF medium frequencies were also significantly improved. First results indicated that clinical images reconstructed with ASIR had a better overall image quality compared with conventional reconstruction. This means that at constant image quality the radiation dose can be strongly reduced. Conclusion: The first results of this study shown that the ASIR method improves the image quality on phantoms by decreasing noise and improving resolution with respect to the classical one. Moreover, the benefit obtained is higher at lower doses. In clinical environment, a dose reduction can still be expected on 80 kVp low dose pediatric protocols using 50% of iterative reconstruction. Best ASIR percentage as a function of cardiac structures and detailed protocols will be presented for cardiac examinations.

Prospective sampling based on model ensembles improves the detection of rare species

Identifying the geographic distribution of populations is a basic, yet crucial step in many fundamental and applied ecological projects, as it provides key information on which many subsequent analyses depend. However, this task is often costly and time consuming, especially where rare species are concerned and where most sampling designs generally prove inefficient. At the same time, rare species are those for which distribution data are most needed for their conservation to be effective. To enhance fieldwork sampling, model-based sampling (MBS) uses predictions from species distribution models: when looking for the species in areas of high habitat suitability, chances should be higher to find them. We thoroughly tested the efficiency of MBS by conducting an important survey in the Swiss Alps, assessing the detection rate of three rare and five common plant species. For each species, habitat suitability maps were produced following an ensemble modeling framework combining two spatial resolutions and two modeling techniques. We tested the efficiency of MBS and the accuracy of our models by sampling 240 sites in the field (30 sitesx8 species). Across all species, the MBS approach proved to be effective. In particular, the MBS design strictly led to the discovery of six sites of presence of one rare plant, increasing chances to find this species from 0 to 50%. For common species, MBS doubled the new population discovery rates as compared to random sampling. Habitat suitability maps coming from the combination of four individual modeling methods predicted well the species' distribution and more accurately than the individual models. As a conclusion, using MBS for fieldwork could efficiently help in increasing our knowledge of rare species distribution. More generally, we recommend using habitat suitability models to support conservation plans.