Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Tensile properties of pumpkin peel and flesh tissue and review of current testing methods

In South and Southeast Asia, postharvest loss causes material waste of up to 66% in fruits and vegetables, 30% in oilseeds and pulses, and 49% in roots and tubers. The efficiency of postharvest equipment directly affects industrial-scale food production. To enhance current processing methods and devices, it is essential to analyze the responses of food materials under loading operations. Food materials undergo different types of mechanical loading during postharvest and processing stages. Therefore, it is important to determine the properties of these materials under different types of loads, such as tensile, compression, and indentation. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the available literature on the tensile properties of different food samples. The aim of this review was to categorize the available methods of tensile testing for agricultural crops and food materials to investigate an appropriate sample size and tensile test method. The results were then applied to perform tensile tests on pumpkin flesh and peel samples, in particular on arc-sided samples at a constant loading rate of 20 mm min-1. The results showed the maximum tensile stress of pumpkin flesh and peel samples to be 0.535 and 1.45 MPa, respectively. The elastic modulus of the flesh and peel samples was 6.82 and 25.2 MPa, respectively, while the failure modulus values were 14.51 and 30.88 MPa, respectively. The results of the tensile tests were also used to develop a finite element model of mechanical peeling of tough-skinned vegetables. However, to study the effects of deformation rate, moisture content, and texture of the tissue on the tensile responses of food materials, more investigation needs to be done in the future.

Influence of nitrogen fertiliser application and timing on greenhouse gas emissions from a lychee (Litchi chinensis) orchard in humid subtropical Australia

Nitrous oxide emissions from intensive, fertilised agricultural systems have been identified as significant contributors to both Australia's and the global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. This is expected to increase as rates of agriculture intensification and land use change accelerate to support population growth and food production. Limited data exists on N2O trace gas fluxes from subtropical or tropical tree cropping soils critical for the development of effective mitigation strategies.This study aimed to quantify GHG emissions over two consecutive years (March 2007 to March 2009) from a 30 year (lychee) orchard in the humid subtropical region of Australia. GHG fluxes were measured using a combination of high temporal resolution automated sampling and manually sampled chambers. No fertiliser was added to the plots during the 2007 measurement season. A split application of nitrogen fertiliser (urea) was added at the rate of 265kgNha-1 during the autumn and spring of 2008. Emissions of N2O were influenced by rainfall events and seasonal temperatures during 2007 and the fertilisation events in 2008. Annual N2O emissions from the lychee canopy increased from 1.7kgN2O-Nha-1yr-1 for 2007, to 7.6kgN2O-Nha-1yr-1 following fertiliser application in 2008. This represented an emission factor of 1.56%, corrected for background emissions. The timing of the split application was found to be critical to N2O emissions, with over twice as much lost following an application in spring (2.44%) compared to autumn (EF: 1.10%). This research suggests that avoiding fertiliser application during the hot and moist spring/summer period can reduce N2O losses without compromising yields.

Low temperature pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse at atmospheric pressure using mixtures of ethylene carbonate and ethylene glycol

A low temperature lignocellulose pretreatment process was developed using acid-catalysed mixtures of alkylene carbonate and alkylene glycol. Pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse with mixtures of ethylene carbonate (EC) and ethylene glycol (EG) was more effective than that with mixtures of propylene carbonate (PC) and propylene glycol (PG). These mixtures were more effective than the individual components in making bagasse cellulose more amenable to cellulase digestion. Glucan digestibilities of ≥87% could be achieved with a wide range of EC to EG ratios from 9:1 to 1:1 (w/w). Pretreatment of bagasse by the EC/EG mixture with a ratio of 4:1 in the presence of 1.2% H2SO4 at 90 °C for 30 min led to the highest glucan enzymatic digestibility of 93%. The high glucan digestibilities obtained under these acidic conditions were due to (a) the ability of alkylene carbonate to cause significant biomass size reduction, (b) the ability of alkylene glycol to cause biomass defibrillation, (c) the ability of alkylene carbonate and alkylene glycol to remove xylan and lignin, and (d) the magnified above attributes in the mixtures of alkylene carbonate and alkylene glycol.

Modeling the co-precipitation of silica and calcium oxalate in sugar solutions

Solution chemistry plays a significant role in the rate and type of foulant formed on heated industrial surfaces. This paper describes the effect of sucrose, silica (SiO2), Ca2+ and Mg2+ ions, and trans-aconitic acid on the kinetics and solubility of SiO2 and calcium oxalate monohydrate (COM) in mixed salt solutions containing sucrose and refines models previously proposed. The developed SiO2 models show that sucrose and SiO2 concentrations are the main parameters that determine apparent order (n) and apparent rate of reaction (k) and SiO2 solubility over a 24 h period. The calcium oxalate solubility model shows that while increasing [Mg2+] increases COM solubility, the reverse is so with increasing sucrose concentrations. The role of solution species on COM crystal habit is discussed and the appearance of the uncommon (001) face is explained.

Understanding mild acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse through particle scale modeling

Sugarcane bagasse is an abundant and sustainable resource, generated as a by-product of sugarcane milling. The cellulosic material within bagasse can be broken down into glucose molecules and fermented to produce ethanol, making it a promising feedstock for biofuel production. Mild acid pretreatment hydrolyses the hemicellulosic component of biomass, thus allowing enzymes greater access to the cellulosic substrate during saccharification. A particle-scale mathematical model describing the mild acid pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse has been developed, using a volume averaged framework. Discrete population-balance equations are used to characterise the polymer degradation kinetics, and diffusive effects account for mass transport within the cell wall of the bagasse. As the fibrous material hydrolyses over time, variations in the porosity of the cell wall and the downstream effects on the reaction kinetics are accounted for using conservation of volume arguments. Non-dimensionalization of the model equations reduces the number of parameters in the system to a set of four dimensionless ratios that compare the timescales of different reaction and diffusion events. Theoretical yield curves are compared to macroscopic experimental observations from the literature and inferences are made as to constraints on these “unknown” parameters. These results enable connections to be made between experimental data and the underlying thermodynamics of acid pretreatment. Consequently, the results suggest that data-fitting techniques used to obtain kinetic parameters should be carefully applied, with prudent consideration given to the chemical and physiological processes being modeled.

RNAi for insect-proof plants

RNA interference induced in insects after ingestion of plant-expressed hairpin RNA offers promise for managing devastating crop pests

Comparison of the coat protein, movement protein and RNA polymerase gene sequences of Australian, Chinese, and American isolates of barley yellow dwarf virus transmitted by Rhopalosiphum padi

Barley yellow dwarf luteovirus-GPV (BYDV-GPV) is a common problem in Chinese wheat crops but is unrecorded elsewhere. A defining characteristic of GPV is its capacity to be transmitted efficiently by both Schizaphis graminum and Rhopaloshiphum padi. This dual aphid species transmission contrasts with those of BYDV-RPV and BYDV-SGV, globally distributed viruses, which are efficiently transmitted only by Rhopaloshiphum padi and Schizaphis graminum respectively. The viral RNA sequences encoding the coat protein (22K) gene, the movement protein (17K) gene, the region surrounding the conserved GDD motif of the polymerase gene and the intergenic sequences between these genes were determined for GPV and an Australian isolate of BYDV-RPV (RPVa). In all three genes, the sequences of GPV and RPVa were more similar to those of an American isolate of BYDV-RPV (RPVu) than to any other luteovirus for which there is data available. RPVa and RPVu were very similar, especially their coat proteins which had 97% identity at the amino acid level. The coat protein of GPV had 76% and 78% amino acid identity with RPVa and RPVu respectively. The data suggest that RPVu and RPVa are correctly named as strains of the same serotype and that GPV is sufficiently different from either RPV strain to be considered a distinct BYDV type. The coat protein and movement protein genes of GPV are very dissimilar to SGV. The polymerase sequences of RPVu, RPVa and GPV show close affinities with those of the sobemo-like luteoviruses and little similarity with those of the carmo-like luteoviruses. The sequences of the coat proteins, movement proteins and the polymerase segments of BYDV serotypes, other than RPV and GPV, form a cluster that is separate from their counterpart sequences from dicot-infecting luteoviruses. The RPV and GPV isolates consistently fall within a dicot-infecting cluster. This suggests that RPV and GPV evolved from within this group of viruses. Since these other viruses all infect dicots it seems likely that their common ancestor infected a dicot and that RPV and GPV evolved from a virus that switched hosts from a dicot to a monocot.

Geologic map of the Valley Mountain 15’ quadrangle, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California: U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Quadrangle Map GQ–1767, scale 1:62,500

The Valley Mountain 15’ quadrangle straddles the Pinto Mountain Fault, which bounds the eastern Transverse Ranges in the south against the Mojave Desert province in the north. The Pinto Mountains, part of the eastern Transverse Ranges in the south part of the quadrangle expose a series of Paleoproterozoic gneisses and granite and the Proterozoic quartzite of Pinto Mountain. Early Triassic quartz monzonite intruded the gneisses and was ductiley deformed prior to voluminous Jurassic intrusion of diorite, granodiorite, quartz monzonite, and granite plutons. The Jurassic rocks include part of the Bullion Mountains Intrusive Suite, which crops out prominently at Valley Mountain and in the Bullion Mountains, as well as in the Pinto Mountains. Jurassic plutons in the southwest part of the quadrangle are deeply denuded from midcrustal emplacement levels in contrast to supracrustal Jurassic limestone and volcanic rocks exposed in the northeast. Dikes inferred to be part of the Jurassic Independence Dike Swarm intrude the Jurassic plutons and Proterozoic rocks. Late Cretaceous intrusion of the Cadiz Valley Batholith in the northeast caused contact metamorphism of adjacent Jurassic plutonic rocks...

Pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse by acidified aqueous polyol solutions

Pretreatments of sugarcane bagasse by three high boiling-point polyol solutions were compared in acid-catalysed processes. Pretreatments by ethylene glycol (EG) and propylene glycol solutions containing 1.2 % H2SO4 and 10 % water at 130 °C for 30 min removed 89 % lignin from bagasse resulting in a glucan digestibility of 95 % with a cellulase loading of ~20 FPU/g glucan. Pretreatment by glycerol solution under the same conditions removed 57 % lignin with a glucan digestibility of 77 %. Further investigations with EG solutions showed that increases in acid content, pretreatment temperature and time, and decrease in water content improved pretreatment effectiveness. A good linear correlation of glucan digestibility with delignification was observed with R2 = 0.984. Bagasse samples pretreated with EG solutions were characterised by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction, which confirmed that improved glucan enzymatic digestibility is mainly due to delignification and defibrillation of bagasse. Pretreatment by acidified EG solutions likely led to the formation of EG-glycosides. Up to 36 % of the total lignin was recovered from pretreatment hydrolysate, which may improve the pretreatment efficiency of recycled EG solution.

Glycerol carbonate as green solvent for pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse

Background Pretreatment of lignocellulosic biomass is a prerequisite for effective saccharification to produce fermentable sugars. We have previously reported an effective low temperature (90 °C) process at atmospheric pressure for pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse with acidified mixtures of ethylene carbonate (EC) and ethylene glycol (EG). In this study, “greener” solvent systems based on acidified mixtures of glycerol carbonate (GC) and glycerol were used to treat sugarcane bagasse and the roles of each solvent in deconstructing biomass were determined. Results Pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse at 90 °C for only 30 min with acidified GC produced a solid residue having a glucan digestibility of 90% and a glucose yield of 80%, which were significantly higher than a glucan digestibility of 16% and a glucose yield of 15% obtained for bagasse pretreated with acidified EC. Biomass compositional analyses showed that GC pretreatment removed more lignin than EC pretreatment (84% vs 54%). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed that fluffy and size-reduced fibres were produced from GC pretreatment whereas EC pretreatment produced compact particles of reduced size. The maximal glucan digestibility and glucose yield of GC/glycerol systems were about 7% lower than those of EC/ethylene glycol (EG) systems. Replacing up to 50 wt% of GC with glycerol did not negatively affect glucan digestibility and glucose yield. The results from pretreatment of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) showed that (1) pretreatment with acidified alkylene glycol (AG) alone increased enzymatic digestibility compared to pretreatments with acidified alkylene carbonate (AC) alone and acidified mixtures of AC and AG, (2) pretreatment with acidified GC alone slightly increased, but with acidified EC alone significantly decreased, enzymatic digestibility compared to untreated MCC, and (3) there was a good positive linear correlation of enzymatic digestibility of treated and untreated MCC samples with congo red (CR) adsorption capacity. Conclusions Acidified GC alone was a more effective solvent for pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse than acidified EC alone. The higher glucose yield obtained with GC-pretreated bagasse is possibly due to the presence of one hydroxyl group in the GC molecular structure, resulting in more significant biomass delignification and defibrillation, though both solvent pretreatments reduced bagasse particles to a similar extent. The maximum glucan digestibility of GC/glycerol systems was less than that of EC/EG systems, which is likely attributed to glycerol being less effective than EG in biomass delignification and defibrillation. Acidified AC/AG solvent systems were more effective for pretreatment of lignin-containing biomass than MCC.

Making mangoes move

A landscape of mangoes most likely brings to mind a place in a tropical location. By the end of the nineteenth century that place could have been located on any continent in the world. Mangoes were found in geographic locations; in scientific institutions; as crop plants; and as a backyard trees. Here I trace the movement of mangoes Mangifera indica Linn., focusing on the transnational links formed through colonial botanic gardens in Australia. Botanic gardens were largely understood through their work in establishing economically successful plantation crops, such as sugar and tea. Mangoes were not a success crop of the age of botanic imperialism. Instead, mangoes were simply one species among the millions of plants that botanic gardens moved in addition to these well known commercial crops. Colonial science moved plants for a myriad of other types of reasons, for ornament, for curiosity, for lesser commercial purposes and for pure science. In each site the mango emerged, the discourses and technologies that traveled with it changed according to local needs. Indeed, rather than finding mangoes located in one place, tracing their movement demonstrates that this was an extended landscape connecting these things across time and space...

Inhibition of homogenous formation of calcium carbonate by poly (acrylic acid). The effect of molar mass and end-group functionality

The ability of poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) with different end groups and molar masses prepared by Atom Transfer Radical Polymerization (ATRP) to inhibit the formation of calcium carbonate scale at low and elevated temperatures was investigated. Inhibition of CaCO3 deposition was affected by the hydrophobicity of the end groups of PAA, with the greatest inhibition seen for PAA with hydrophobic end groups of moderate size (6–10 carbons). The morphologies of CaCO3 crystals were significantly distorted in the presence of these PAAs. The smallest morphological change was in the presence of PAA with long hydrophobic end groups (16 carbons) and the relative inhibition observed for all species were in the same order at 30 °C and 100 °C. As well as distorting morphologies, the scale inhibitors appeared to stabilize the less thermodynamically favorable polymorph, vaterite, to a degree proportional to their ability to inhibit precipitation.

Process modelling and simulation of tissue damage during mechanical peeling of pumpkin as a tough skinned vegetable

Food waste is a current challenge that both developing and developed countries face. This project applied a novel combination of available methods in Mechanical, agricultural and food engineering to address these challenges. A systematic approach was devised to investigate possibilities of reducing food waste and increasing the efficiency of industry by applying engineering concepts and theories including experimental, mathematical and computational modelling methods. This study highlights the impact of comprehensive understanding of agricultural and food material response to the mechanical operations and its direct relation to the volume of food wasted globally.