Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

Market rewards to patterns on increasing earnings: do cash flow patterns, accruals manipulation and real activities manipulation matter?

This study explores whether firms have differential price-earnings multiples associated with their means of achieving a sequential pattern of increasing positive earnings. Our main findings show that market participants assign higher price-earnings multiples to firms when their pattern of increasing earnings is supported by the same pattern of increasing cash flows. Market participants assign lower price-earnings multiples to firms suspect of having engaged in accrual-based earnings management, sales manipulation, and overproduction to achieve the earnings pattern. We find, however, that market participants do not penalize firms suspect of having achieved the earnings pattern through the opportunistic reduction of discretionary expenses.

Improving the organisation and commercialisation of small coffee and cocoa producers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador

Coffee and cocoa represent the main sources of income for small farmers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador. The provinces of Orellana and Sucumbios, as border areas, have benefited from investments made by many public and private institutions. Many of the projects carried out in the area have been aimed at energising the production of coffee and cocoa, strengthening the producers’ associations and providing commercialisation infrastructure. Improving the quality of life of this population threatened by poverty and high migration flows mainly from Colombia is a significant challenge. This paper presents research highlighting the importance of associative commercialisation to raising income from coffee and cocoa. The research draws on primary information obtained during field work, and from official information from the Ministry of Agriculture. The study presents an overview of current organisational structures, initiatives of associative commercialisation, stockpiling of infrastructure and ownership regimes, as well as estimates for both ‘robusta’ coffee and national cocoa production and income. The analysis of the main constraints presents different alternatives for the implementation of public land policies. These policies are aimed at mitigating the problems associated with the organisational structure of the producers, with processes of commercialisation and with environmental aspects, among others.

Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan, August 2005

We explore and investigate Japanese dairy markets. We first provide an overview of consumer demand and how it evolved after World War II. Using historical data and econometric estimates of Japanese dairy demand, we identify economic, cultural, and demographic forces that have been shaping consumption patterns. Then we summarize the characteristics of Japanese milk production and dairy processing and policies affecting them. We next describe the import regime and trade flows in dairy products. The analysis of the regulatory system of the dairy sector shows how its incentive structure affects the long-term prospects of various segments of the industry. The paper concludes with policy recommendations of how to reform the Japanese dairy sector.

The Ins and Outs of Unemployment: A Conditional Analysis

We analyze how unemployment, job finding and job separation rates react to neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Neutral shocks increase unemployment and explain a substantial portion of unemployment volatility; investment-specific shocks expand employment and hours worked and mostly contribute to hours worked volatility. Movements in the job separation rates are responsible for the impact response of unemployment while job finding rates for movements along its adjustment path. Our evidence qualifies the conclusions by Hall (2005) and Shimer (2007) and warns against using search models with exogenous separation rates to analyze the effects of technology shocks.

Chemistry, isotope values (δD, δ18O, δ34S(SO4)) and temperatures of the water inflows in two Gotthard tunnels, Swiss Alps

Water inflows in the Gotthard Highway Tunnel and in the Gotthard Exploration Tunnel are meteoric waters infiltrating at different elevations, on both sides of an important orographic divide. Limited interaction of meteoric waters with gneissic rocks produces Ca-HCO3 and Na-Ca-HCO3 waters, whereas prolonged interaction of meteoric waters with the same rocks generates Na-HCO3 to Na-SO4 waters. Waters circulating in Triassic carbonate-evaporite rocks have a Ca-SO4 composition. Calcium-Na-SO4 waters are also present. They can be produced through interaction of either Na-HCO3 waters with anhydrite or Ca-SO4 waters with a local gneissic rock, as suggested by reaction path modeling. An analogous simulation indicates that Na-HCO3 waters are generated through interaction of Ca-HCO3 waters with a local gneissic rock. The two main SO4-sources present in the Alps are leaching of upper Triassic sulfate minerals and oxidative dissolution of sulfide minerals of crystalline rocks. Values of delta S-34(SO4) < <similar to>+ 9 parts per thousand, are due to oxidative dissolution of sulfide minerals, whereas delta S-34(SO4) > similar to+ 9 parts per thousand are controlled either by bacterial SO4 reduction or leaching of upper Triassic sulfate minerals. Most waters have temperatures similar to the expected values for a geothermal gradient of 22 degreesC/km and are close to thermal equilibrium with rocks. However relatively large, descending flows of cold waters and ascending flows of warm waters are present in both tunnels and determine substantial cooling and heating, respectively, of the interacting rocks. The most import upflow zone of warm, Na-rich waters is below Guspisbach, in the Gotthard Highway Tunnel, at 6.2-9.0 km from the southern portal. These warm waters have equilibrium temperatures of 65-75 degreesC and therefore constitute an important low-enthalpy geothermal resource. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Institutions, Public Debt and Foreign Finance

We study the role of domestic financial institutions in sustaining capital flows to the private and public sector of a country whose government can default on its debt. As in recent public debt crises, in our model public defaults weaken banks' balance sheets, disrupting domestic financial markets. This effect leads to a novel complementarity between private capital inflows and public borrowing, where the former sustain the latter by boosting the government's cost of default. Our key message is that, by shaping the direction of private capital flows, financial institutions determine whether financial integration improves or reduces government discipline. We explore the implications of this complementarity for financial liberalization and debt-financed bailouts of banks. We present some evidence consistent with complementarity.

Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Financial Crises and International Portfolio Dynamics

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents, especially during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. This is because when foreigners invest in a country domestic agents tend to invest abroad and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners tend to bring in more capital and domestic agents tend to invest more abroad. During crises, there is retrenchment, i.e. a reduction in capital inflows by foreigners and an increase in capital inflows by domestic agents. This is especially true during severe crises and during systemic crises. The evidence can shed light on the nature of shocks driving international capital flows. It seems to favor shocks that affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically -e.g. sovereign risk and asymmetric information- over productivity shocks.

Morphostructural analysis of an alpine debris flows catchment: implication for debris supply

Rock slope instabilities are implicitly linked to the supply of sediment and debris recharging channels prone to debris flow. Hence, the incorporation of bedrock structure and terrain morphology can be relevant in the analysis of sediment budget and debris flow hazard assessment. Here, the mode of debris production of the Manival catchment (northern French Alps) is documented by the study of its morphostructural aspects extracted from high resolution DEM. Terrain implication in the process of debris supply is evaluated by: a) A systematic classification of the major morphological units based on the slope gradient that enables a spatial analysis of zones of debris production and deposition. b) A detailed structural analysis performed on DEM in order to identify potential unstable slopes. c) An analysis of the gullies orientation that informs in term of structural control of the sources zones. d) Localisation of high density joints sets that document about whether sources of continuous debris production are controlled by the structural setting of the catchment. These DEM-based indicators can be used as proxies for assessing the influences of the current topography and enable to quantify a degree of susceptibility to mass wasting and hillslope erosion activity. This present contribution suggests some directions for characterizing sediment flux dynamic in small alpine catchment.

The ins and outs of unemployment: An analysis conditional on technology shocks

We analyze how unemployment, job finding and job separation rates reactto neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Neutral shocks increaseunemployment and explain a substantial portion of it volatility; investment-specificshocks expand employment and hours worked and contribute to hoursworked volatility. Movements in the job separation rates are responsible for theimpact response of unemployment while job finding rates for movements alongits adjustment path. The evidence warns against using models with exogenousseparation rates and challenges the conventional way of modelling technologyshocks in search and sticky price models.

Convertibility, currency controls and the cost of capital in Western Europe, 1950-1999

For most of the post-war period, Europe s capital markets remained largely closed to international capital flows. Thispaper explores the costs of this policy. Using an event-study methodology, I examine the extent to which restrictions ofcurrent and capital account convertibility affected stock returns. The delayed introduction of full currency convertibilityincreased the cost of capital. Also, a string of measures designed to reduce capital mobility before the ultimate collapseof the Bretton Woods System had considerable negative effects. These findings offer an explanation for the mountingevidence suggesting that capital account liberalization facilitates growth.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Importance of international linkages for local know-how flows. Some econometric evidence from Belgium

External knowledge is an important input for the innovation process of firms. Increasingly, this knowledge is likely to originate fromoutside of their national borders. This explains the preoccupationof policymakers with stimulating local technology transfers coming from international firms. We find that firms that have access to the international technology market are more likely to transfer technology to the local economy. In doing so, we qualify the traditional assertion that multinational firms are more likelyto transfer technology to the local economy. Once controlled for the superior access to the international technology market that multinationals enjoy, we find that these firms are not more likelyto transfer technology to the local economy compared to exportingor local firms that have access to the international technology market. In summary, the main result of this paper is that it isnot so much the international character of the firms, but rathertheir access to the international technology market that is important for generating external knowledge transfers to the local economy.

Hiring and firing costs, adverse selection and long-term unemployment

In this paper, we present a matching model with adverse selection that explains why flows into and out of unemployment are much lower in Europe compared to North America, while employment-to-employment flows are similar in the two continents. In the model,firms use discretion in terms of whom to fire and, thus, low quality workers are more likely to be dismissed than high quality workers. Moreover, as hiring and firing costs increase, firms find it more costly to hire a bad worker and, thus, they prefer to hire out of the pool of employed job seekers rather than out of the pool of the unemployed, who are more likely to turn out to be 'lemons'. We use microdata for Spain and the U.S. and find that the ratio of the job finding probability of the unemployed to the job finding probability of employed job seekers was smaller in Spain than in the U.S. Furthermore, using U.S. data, we find that the discrimination of the unemployed increased over the 1980's in those states that raised firing costs by introducing exceptions to the employment-at-will doctrine.