Patterns in complex systems modeling

The design, development, and use of complex systems models raises a unique class of challenges and potential pitfalls, many of which are commonly recurring problems. Over time, researchers gain experience in this form of modeling, choosing algorithms, techniques, and frameworks that improve the quality, confidence level, and speed of development of their models. This increasing collective experience of complex systems modellers is a resource that should be captured. Fields such as software engineering and architecture have benefited from the development of generic solutions to recurring problems, called patterns. Using pattern development techniques from these fields, insights from communities such as learning and information processing, data mining, bioinformatics, and agent-based modeling can be identified and captured. Collections of such 'pattern languages' would allow knowledge gained through experience to be readily accessible to less-experienced practitioners and to other domains. This paper proposes a methodology for capturing the wisdom of computational modelers by introducing example visualization patterns, and a pattern classification system for analyzing the relationship between micro and macro behaviour in complex systems models. We anticipate that a new field of complex systems patterns will provide an invaluable resource for both practicing and future generations of modelers.

A patttern based model evolution approach

In this paper, we present a framework for pattern-based model evolution approaches in the MDA context. In the framework, users define patterns using a pattern modeling language that is designed to describe software design patterns, and they can use the patterns as rules to evolve their model. In the framework, design model evolution takes place via two steps. The first step is a binding process of selecting a pattern and defining where and how to apply the pattern in the model. The second step is an automatic model transformation that actually evolves the model according to the binding information and the pattern rule. The pattern modeling language is defined in terms of a MOF-based role metamodel, and implemented using an existing modeling framework, EMF, and incorporated as a plugin to the Eclipse modeling environment. The model evolution process is also implemented as an Eclipse plugin. With these two plugins, we provide an integrated framework where defining and validating patterns, and model evolution based on patterns can take place in a single modeling environment.

AVALIAÇÃO COMPARATIVA ENTRE AGRADABILIDADE FACIAL, PROPORÇÃO ÁUREA E PADRÃO FACIAL

O propósito desta pesquisa foi estudar algumas análises faciais utilizadas para diagnóstico ortodôntico e verificar a concordância entre norma lateral e frontal na avaliação da agradabilidade facial para os grupos leigos e profissionais, a concordância entre estes grupos na avaliação da agradabilidade facial nas normas lateral e frontal, bem como verificar a associação entre agradabilidade facial e Proporção Áurea, agradabilidade facial e Padrão Facial e entre Padrão Facial e Proporção Áurea. Utilizou-se 208 fotografias faciais padronizadas (104 laterais e 104 frontais) de 104 indivíduos escolhidos aleatoriamente, que primeiramente foram classificadas em agradável , aceitável e desagradável por dois grupos distintos: grupo Ortodontia e grupo Leigos . As fotografias laterais e frontais foram submetidas a medidas de Proporção Áurea Facial por meio de programa computadorizado e os indivíduos foram classificados quanto ao Padrão Facial pelo seu aspecto lateral. Após análise estatística, verificou-se que não houve concordância entre as variáveis da avaliação de agradabilidade estudadas, bem como não houve associação entre Proporção Áurea com agradabilidade facial ou com Padrão Facial. Entre agradabilidade facial e Padrão Facial, observou-se para a norma lateral associação fortemente positiva, porém para a frontal não houve associação para ambos os grupos de avaliadores.

On the existence of visual technical patterns in the UK stock market

The aim in this paper is to replicate and extend the analysis of visual technical patterns by Lo et al. (2000) using data on the UK market. A non-parametric smoother is used to model a nonlinear trend in stock price series. Technical patterns, such as the 'head-and-shoulders' pattern, that are characterised by a sequence of turning points are identified in the smoothed data. Statistical tests are used to determine whether returns conditioned on the technical patterns are different from random returns and, in an extension to the analysis of Lo et al. (2000), whether they can outperform a market benchmark return. For the stocks in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices over the period 1986 to 2001, we find that technical patterns occur with different frequencies to each other and in different relativities to the frequencies found in the US market. Our extended statistical testing indicates that UK stock returns are less influenced by technical patterns than was the case for US stock returns.

Lobe growth in foliose lichen thalli

The margins of foliose lichen thalli comprise individual lobes which grow radially and divide. This results in a complex marginal structure in which lobes differing in morphology, state of division, and growth pattern are crowded together. Various aspects of the biology of these lobes are reviewed including their carbohydrate supply, morphology, pattern of division and branching, the effect of lobe overcrowding and interactions between neighbouring lobes. As the thalus grows, lobes become increasingly crowded together and this restricts further lateral growth. Restriction of lobe width may be reponsible for the changes in radial growth rate (RGR) with size observed in foliose species. Various aspects of lobe biology may be responsible for lobe growth variation including the physical independence of lobes from their neighbours, the genetic origin of the lobes, and the pattern of lobe branching. Overall symmetry of a thallus is maintained by a fluctuating pattern of growth of individual lobes in successive months together with competition for space at the margin

Factors determining lobe growth in foliose lichen thalli

This study investigates the relative importance of climate, lobe morphology and lobe interactions in determining the radial growth of individual lobes in foliose lichen thalli. The radial growth of 75 lobes from thalli of Parmelia conspersa (Ehrh. Ex Ach.) Ach. and Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa (Fr. ex Duby) Laund. was measured over 22 successive months in relation to climatic factors. Individual lobes showed a fluctuating pattern of radial growth with alternating periods of fast and slow growth. In 17/75 (23%) of lobes studied, monthly radial growth was correlated with a climatic factor, usually total rainfall or the frequency of sunshine hours. In addition, the radial growth of 54 lobes of P. conspersa was measured over four months in relation to lobe morphology and the radial growth and morphology of adjacent lobes. Radial growth was correlated with lobe length and with the radial growth of adjacent lobes. In addition, the pattern of lobe branching appeared to be related to lobe width and to a lesser extent to lobe length and the width of adjacent lobes. The radial growth in one year of exceptionally long lobes which had grown beyond the thallus margin was similar to more normal lobes, but experimentally bisected lobes had significantly reduced radial growth compared with control lobes. These results suggested that the fluctuating pattern of radial growth in individual lobes may be determined by climate and the pattern of lobe branching. In addition, the pattern of lobe branching was related to lobe width and may be influenced by adjacent lobes.

The delivery of bioactive proteins using biodegradable microspheres

In this project, antigen-containing microspheres were produced using a range of biodegradable polymers by single and double emulsion solvent evaporation and spray drying techniques. The proteins used in this study were mainly BSA, tetanus toxoid, F1 and V, Y. pestis subunit vaccines and the cytokine, interferon-gamma. The polymer chosen for use in the vaccine preparation will directly determine the characteristics of the formulation. Full in vitro analysis of the preparations was carried out, including surface hydrophobicity and drug release profiles. The influence of the surfactants employed on microsphere surface hydrophobicity was demonstrated. Preparations produced with polyhydroxybutyrate and poly(DTH carbonate) polymers were also shown to be more hydrophobic than PLA microspheres, which may enhance particle uptake by antigen presenting cells and Peyer's patches. Systematic immunisation with microspheres with a range of properties showed differences in the time course and extent of the immune response generated, which would allow optimisation of the dosing schedule to provide maximal response in a single dose preparation. Both systematic and mucosal responses were induced following oral delivery of microencapsulated tetanus toxoid indicating that the encapsulation of the antigen into a microsphere preparation provides protection in the gut and allows targeting of the mucosal-associated lymphoid tissue. Co-encapsulation of adjuvants for further enhancement of immune response was also carried out and the effect on loading and release pattern assessed. Co-encapsulated F1 and interferon-gamma was administered i.p. and the immune responses compared with singly encapsulated and free subunit antigen.

A morphometric study of the spatial patterns of TDP-43 immunoreactive neuronal inclusions in frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) with progranulin (GRN) mutation

Mutations of the progranulin (GRN) gene are a major cause of familial frontotemporal lobar degeneration with transactive response (TAR) DNA-binding protein of 43 kDa (TDP-43) proteinopathy (FTLD-TDP). We studied the spatial patterns of TDP-43 immunoreactive neuronal cytoplasmic inclusions (NCI) and neuronal intranuclear inclusions (NII) in histological sections of the frontal and temporal lobe in eight cases of FTLD-TDP with GRN mutation using morphometric methods and spatial pattern analysis. In neocortical regions, the NCI were clustered and the clusters were regularly distributed parallel to the pia mater; 58% of regions analysed exhibiting this pattern. The NII were present in regularly distributed clusters in 35% of regions but also randomly distributed in many areas. In neocortical regions, the sizes of the regular clusters of NCI and NII were 400-800 µm, approximating to the size of the modular columns of the cortico-cortical projections, in 31% and 36% of regions respectively. The NCI and NII also exhibited regularly spaced clustering in sectors CA1/2 of the hippocampus and in the dentate gyrus. The clusters of NCI and NII were not spatially correlated. The data suggest degeneration of the cortico-cortical and cortico-hippocampal pathways in FTLD-TDP with GRN mutation, the NCI and NII affecting different clusters of neurons.

The effectiveness of lamotrigine in the treatment of photosensitive epilepsy

Photosensitive epilepsy and associated pattern sensitivity are more prevalent in females and are usually treated with sodium valproate. Sodium valproate has an adverse effect profile, which particularly affects females, including teratogenicity, association with the polycystic ovary syndrome and weight gain. It would be useful therefore if an alternative treatment for photosensitive epilepsy could be found. The principle aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of lamotrigine in the treatment of photosensitive epilepsy in adults and children. Patients were either drug-naive, commencing lamotrigine therapy or were transferring from other antiepileptic drugs to lamotrigine (primarily sodium valproate) due to lack of response, adverse effects or desired pregnancy. The photoparoxsymal response in the electroencephalograph was used as the primary measure of photo and pattern sensitivity. In addition the effects of lamotrigine on occipital spikes and normal responses in the EEG to visual stimuli were investigated. Secondary measures also included the resting EEG, seizures, body mass index, menstrual function, mood and cognitive function. The results suggest that in adult patients lamotrigine is efficacious in the treatment of photosensitive epilepsy, although it appears inferior to sodium valproate. Lamotrigine does however have a more favourable adverse effect profile than valproate. The results indicate that lamotrigine therapy is suitable for photosensitive epilepsy in women of childbearing age or in patients experiencing unacceptable adverse effects with valproate therapy. Patients are more likely to respond to lamotrigine treatment if they present with sensitivity to a limited number of frequencies. Lamotrigine does not seem to be as efficacious in the treatment of children, although against it may be considered a second line drug if the child does not respond to or will not tolerate sodium valproate.

Identification of visual field progression

The study developed statistical techniques to evaluate visual field progression for use with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (HFA). The long-term fluctuation (LF) was evaluated in stable glaucoma. The magnitude of both LF components showed little relationship with MD, CPSD and SF. An algorithm was proposed for determining the clinical necessity for a confirmatory follow-up examination. The between-examination variability was determined for the HFA Standard and FASTPAC algorithms in glaucoma. FASTPAC exhibited greater between-examination variability than the Standard algorithm across the range of sensitivities and with increasing eccentricity. The difference in variability between the algorithms had minimal clinical significance. The effect of repositioning the baseline in the Glaucoma Change Probability Analysis (GCPA) was evaluated. The global baseline of the GCPA limited the detection of progressive change at a single stimulus location. A new technique, pointwise univariate linear regressions (ULR), of absolute sensitivity and, of pattern deviation, against time to follow-up was developed. In each case, pointwise ULR was more sensitive to localised progressive changes in sensitivity than ULR of MD, alone. Small changes in sensitivity were more readily determined by the pointwise ULR than by the GCPA. A comparison between the outcome of pointwise ULR for all fields and for the last six fields manifested linear and curvilinear declines in the absolute sensitivity and the pattern deviation. A method for delineating progressive loss in glaucoma, based upon the error in the forecasted sensitivity of a multivariate model, was developed. Multivariate forecasting exhibited little agreement with GCPA in glaucoma but showed promise for monitoring visual field progression in OHT patients. The recovery of sensitivity in optic neuritis over time was modelled with a Cumulative Gaussian function. The rate and level of recovery was greater in the peripheral than the central field. Probability models to forecast the field of recovery were proposed.

Abnormal visual habituation in pediatric photosensitive epilepsy

Objective - To investigate visual habituation – a measure of visual cortical excitability – in photosensitive patients in pediatric age and compare the findings with a matched sample with idiopathic generalized epilepsies without photosensitivity and with normally developing children. Methods - We presented a full-field black-and-white checkerboard pattern, at 3 reversal/s with 100% contrast binocularly for 600 consecutive trials and measured the N75–P100 and P100–N145 pattern-reversal visual evoked potential inter-peak amplitudes and N75, P100, N145 latencies for the six blocks of 100 responses. As a measure of habituation we used the slope of the linear regression line of the N75–P100 and P100–N145 peak-to-peak amplitudes. The slope of the linear regression line of the N75–P100 and P100–N145 latencies was also analyzed. Results - Statistical analysis revealed significant differences between the three groups in the slope index of N75–P100 PR-VEP amplitude, with increased or constant amplitude in the PS group compare to the IGE and ND across the six blocks. Conclusions - Our results support the notion that photosensitivity is associated with altered control of excitatory and inhibitory cortical processes. The causal relationship between habituation deficit and photo-paroxysmal response needs to be further investigated with longitudinal studies. Significance This study supports the hypothesis that suppression of PR-VEP is a sensitive intermediate phenotype, which discriminates patients with photosensitivity from those with generalized epilepsies in pediatric age.

Regression analysis of ranked segment parameters for optic nerve head classification:a pilot study

Purpose: To determine whether curve-fitting analysis of the ranked segment distributions of topographic optic nerve head (ONH) parameters, derived using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph (HRT), provide a more effective statistical descriptor to differentiate the normal from the glaucomatous ONH. Methods: The sample comprised of 22 normal control subjects (mean age 66.9 years; S.D. 7.8) and 22 glaucoma patients (mean age 72.1 years; S.D. 6.9) confirmed by reproducible visual field defects on the Humphrey Field Analyser. Three 10°-images of the ONH were obtained using the HRT. The mean topography image was determined and the HRT software was used to calculate the rim volume, rim area to disc area ratio, normalised rim area to disc area ratio and retinal nerve fibre cross-sectional area for each patient at 10°-sectoral intervals. The values were ranked in descending order, and each ranked-segment curve of ordered values was fitted using the least squares method. Results: There was no difference in disc area between the groups. The group mean cup-disc area ratio was significantly lower in the normal group (0.204 ± 0.16) compared with the glaucoma group (0.533 ± 0.083) (p < 0.001). The visual field indices, mean deviation and corrected pattern S.D., were significantly greater (p < 0.001) in the glaucoma group (-9.09 dB ± 3.3 and 7.91 ± 3.4, respectively) compared with the normal group (-0.15 dB ± 0.9 and 0.95 dB ± 0.8, respectively). Univariate linear regression provided the best overall fit to the ranked segment data. The equation parameters of the regression line manually applied to the normalised rim area-disc area and the rim area-disc area ratio data, correctly classified 100% of normal subjects and glaucoma patients. In this study sample, the regression analysis of ranked segment parameters method was more effective than conventional ranked segment analysis, in which glaucoma patients were misclassified in approximately 50% of cases. Further investigation in larger samples will enable the calculation of confidence intervals for normality. These reference standards will then need to be investigated for an independent sample to fully validate the technique. Conclusions: Using a curve-fitting approach to fit ranked segment curves retains information relating to the topographic nature of neural loss. Such methodology appears to overcome some of the deficiencies of conventional ranked segment analysis, and subject to validation in larger scale studies, may potentially be of clinical utility for detecting and monitoring glaucomatous damage. © 2007 The College of Optometrists.

Performance management of event processing systems

This thesis is a study of performance management of Complex Event Processing (CEP) systems. Since CEP systems have distinct characteristics from other well-studied computer systems such as batch and online transaction processing systems and database-centric applications, these characteristics introduce new challenges and opportunities to the performance management for CEP systems. Methodologies used in benchmarking CEP systems in many performance studies focus on scaling the load injection, but not considering the impact of the functional capabilities of CEP systems. This thesis proposes the approach of evaluating the performance of CEP engines’ functional behaviours on events and develops a benchmark platform for CEP systems: CEPBen. The CEPBen benchmark platform is developed to explore the fundamental functional performance of event processing systems: filtering, transformation and event pattern detection. It is also designed to provide a flexible environment for exploring new metrics and influential factors for CEP systems and evaluating the performance of CEP systems. Studies on factors and new metrics are carried out using the CEPBen benchmark platform on Esper. Different measurement points of response time in performance management of CEP systems are discussed and response time of targeted event is proposed to be used as a metric for quality of service evaluation combining with the traditional response time in CEP systems. Maximum query load as a capacity indicator regarding to the complexity of queries and number of live objects in memory as a performance indicator regarding to the memory management are proposed in performance management of CEP systems. Query depth is studied as a performance factor that influences CEP system performance.

Generalizing of Neural Nets: Functional Nets of Special Type

Special generalizing for the artificial neural nets: so called RFT – FN – is under discussion in the report. Such refinement touch upon the constituent elements for the conception of artificial neural network, namely, the choice of main primary functional elements in the net, the way to connect them(topology) and the structure of the net as a whole. As to the last, the structure of the functional net proposed is determined dynamically just in the constructing the net by itself by the special recurrent procedure. The number of newly joining primary functional elements, the topology of its connecting and tuning of the primary elements is the content of the each recurrent step. The procedure is terminated under fulfilling “natural” criteria relating residuals for example. The functional proposed can be used in solving the approximation problem for the functions, represented by its observations, for classifying and clustering, pattern recognition, etc. Recurrent procedure provide for the versatile optimizing possibilities: as on the each step of the procedure and wholly: by the choice of the newly joining elements, topology, by the affine transformations if input and intermediate coordinate as well as by its nonlinear coordinate wise transformations. All considerations are essentially based, constructively and evidently represented by the means of the Generalized Inverse.

CEPBen:a benchmark for complex event processing systems

Complex Event processing (CEP) has emerged over the last ten years. CEP systems are outstanding in processing large amount of data and responding in a timely fashion. While CEP applications are fast growing, performance management in this area has not gain much attention. It is critical to meet the promised level of service for both system designers and users. In this paper, we present a benchmark for complex event processing systems: CEPBen. The CEPBen benchmark is designed to evaluate CEP functional behaviours, i.e., filtering, transformation and event pattern detection and provides a novel methodology of evaluating the performance of CEP systems. A performance study by running the CEPBen on Esper CEP engine is described and discussed. The results obtained from performance tests demonstrate the influences of CEP functional behaviours on the system performance. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.