Making randomised trials more efficient: report of the first meeting to discuss the Trial Forge platform

Randomised trials are at the heart of evidence-based healthcare, but the methods and infrastructure for conducting these sometimes complex studies are largely evidence free. Trial Forge (www.trialforge.org) is an initiative that aims to increase the evidence base for trial decision making and, in doing so, to improve trial efficiency.

This paper summarises a one-day workshop held in Edinburgh on 10 July 2014 to discuss Trial Forge and how to advance this initiative. We first outline the problem of inefficiency in randomised trials and go on to describe Trial Forge. We present participants' views on the processes in the life of a randomised trial that should be covered by Trial Forge.

General support existed at the workshop for the Trial Forge approach to increase the evidence base for making randomised trial decisions and for improving trial efficiency. Agreed upon key processes included choosing the right research question; logistical planning for delivery, training of staff, recruitment, and retention; data management and dissemination; and close down. The process of linking to existing initiatives where possible was considered crucial. Trial Forge will not be a guideline or a checklist but a 'go to' website for research on randomised trials methods, with a linked programme of applied methodology research, coupled to an effective evidence-dissemination process. Moreover, it will support an informal network of interested trialists who meet virtually (online) and occasionally in person to build capacity and knowledge in the design and conduct of efficient randomised trials.

Some of the resources invested in randomised trials are wasted because of limited evidence upon which to base many aspects of design, conduct, analysis, and reporting of clinical trials. Trial Forge will help to address this lack of evidence.

The first major step in the peace process’? Exploring the impact of the Anglo-Irish Agreement on Irish Republican thinking

This article supports interpretations of the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985 as a significant factor contributing to the development of the Northern Ireland peace process. However, it also emphasises a certain serendipity in the Agreement's effect on northern nationalist, and more specifically republican, politics in the region. In particular, it stresses that a specific interpretation of the Agreement promoted by the Social Democratic and Labour Party inspired a dialogue with republicanism, encouraging an ongoing reappraisal within the latter about the nature of Britain's role in Northern Ireland. This, the article argues, reinforced the movement towards a more political approach that republicans had begun in the 1980s, and encouraged their eventual embrace of a constitutional strategy in the 1990s. However, in advancing this argument, the article notes that such an outcome was far from the minds of the British and Irish officials who negotiated the Anglo-Irish Agreement. The Agreement was intended to marginalise rather than accommodate republicans. Despite this, it provided an inadvertent incentive to draw militant republicanism into the democratic process in Northern Ireland.

The first major step in the peace process’? Exploring the impact of the Anglo-Irish Agreement on Irish republican thinking

This article supports interpretations of the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985 as a significant factor contributing towards the development of the Northern Ireland peace process. However, it also emphasises a certain serendipity in the Agreement’s effect on northern nationalist, and more specifically republican, politics in the region. In particular, it stresses that a specific interpretation of the Agreement promoted by the SDLP inspired a dialogue with republicanism, encouraging an ongoing re-appraisal within the latter about the nature of Britain’s role in Northern Ireland. This, the article argues, reinforced the movement towards a more political approach that republicans had begun in the 1980s, and encouraged their eventual embrace of a constitutional strategy in the 1990s. However, in advancing this argument, the article notes that such an outcome was far from the minds of the British and Irish officials who negotiated the Anglo-Irish Agreement. The Agreement was intended to marginalise rather than accommodate republicans. Despite this, it provided an inadvertent incentive to draw militant republicanism into the democratic process in Northern Ireland.

Selecting superluminous supernovae in faint galaxies from the first year of the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey

The Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) survey has obtained imaging in five bands (grizyP1) over 10 Medium Deep Survey (MDS) fields covering a total of 70 square degrees. This paper describes the search for apparently hostless supernovae (SNe) within the first year of PS1 MDS data with an aim of discovering superluminous supernovae (SLSNe). A total of 249 hostless transients were discovered down to a limiting magnitude of MAB ∼ 23.5, of which 76 were classified as Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). There were 57 SNe with complete light curves that are likely core-collapse SNe (CCSNe) or type Ic SLSNe and 12 of these have had spectra taken. Of these 12 hostless, non-Type Ia SNe, 7 were SLSNe of type Ic at redshifts between 0.5 and 1.4. This illustrates that the discovery rate of type Ic SLSNe can be maximized by concentrating on hostless transients and removing normal SNe Ia. We present data for two possible SLSNe; PS1-10pm (z = 1.206) and PS1-10ahf (z = 1.1), and estimate the rate of type Ic SLSNe to be between 3+3−2×10−53+3−2×10−53+3−2×10−5 and 8+2−1×10−58+2−1×10−58+2−1×10−5 that of the CCSN rate within 0.3 ≤ z ≤ 1.4 by applying a Monte Carlo technique. The rate of slowly evolving, type Ic SLSNe (such as SN2007bi) is estimated as a factor of 10 lower than this range.

Systematic Uncertainties Associated with the Cosmological Analysis of the First PAN-STARRS1 Type Ia Supernova Sample

We probe the systematic uncertainties from the 113 Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) in the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) sample along with 197 SN Ia from a combination of low-redshift surveys. The companion paper by Rest et al. describes the photometric measurements and cosmological inferences from the PS1 sample. The largest systematic uncertainty stems from the photometric calibration of the PS1 and low-z samples. We increase the sample of observed Calspec standards from 7 to 10 used to define the PS1 calibration system. The PS1 and SDSS-II calibration systems are compared and discrepancies up to ∼0.02 mag are recovered. We find uncertainties in the proper way to treat intrinsic colors and reddening produce differences in the recovered value of w up to 3%. We estimate masses of host galaxies of PS1 supernovae and detect an insignificant difference in distance residuals of the full sample of 0.037 ± 0.031 mag for host galaxies with high and low masses. Assuming flatness and including systematic uncertainties in our analysis of only SNe measurements, we find w = -1.120^+0.360_-0.206(Stat)^+0.269_-0.291(Sys). With additional constraints from Baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background (CMB) (Planck) and H₀ measurements, we find w = -1.166^+0.072_-0.069 and Ω_m = 0.280^+0.013_-0.012 (statistical and systematic errors added in quadrature). The significance of the inconsistency with w = -1 depends on whether we use Planck or Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe measurements of the CMB: w_{BAO+H0+SN+WMAP} = -1.124^+0.083_-0.065.

The first month of evolution of the slow-rising Type IIP SN 2013ej in M74

We present early photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2013ej, a bright Type IIP supernova (SN) in M74. SN 2013ej is one of the closest SNe ever discovered. The available archive images and the early discovery help to constrain the nature of its progenitor. The earliest detection of this explosion was on 2013 July 24.125 UT and our spectroscopic monitoring with the FLOYDS spectrographs began on July 27.7 UT, continuing almost daily for two weeks. Daily optical photometric monitoringwas achieved with the 1mtelescopes of the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope (LCOGT) network, and was complemented by UV data from Swift and near-infrared spectra from Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects and Infrared Telescope Facility. The data from our monitoring campaign show that SN 2013ej experienced a 10 d rise before entering into a well-defined plateau phase. This unusually long rise time for a Type IIP has been seen previously in SN 2006bp and SN 2009bw. A relatively rare strong absorption blueward of Hα is present since our earliest spectrum. We identify this feature as Si II, rather than high-velocity Hα as sometimes reported in the literature. 

Risking peace in the ‘War against the Poor’? Social exclusion and the legacies of the Northern Ireland conflict

Discourses around poverty, dependency and austerity take a particular form when it comes to Northern Ireland which is seen as ripe for economic ‘rebalancing’ and public sector reduction. The Welfare Reform Act 2012 is pivotal in that it provides the muscle for disciplining claimants for a low-waged, flexible labour market. But the Northern Ireland Assembly has not passed the Act or agreed a budget and the return of Direct Rule beckons as a result. The article sheds light on the stand-off over the Welfare Reform Act using data from the 2012 PSE Survey. It demonstrates that the impact of violent conflict is imprinted on the population in terms of high rates of deprivation, poor physical and mental health, and significant differences between those experiencing little or no conflict, and those with ‘high’ experience. In ignoring these legacies of the conflict, the Westminster government is risking peace in its ‘war against the poor’.

The United Kingdom, the United Nations Human Rights Council and the first cycle of the Universal Periodic Review

The introduction of the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) mechanism as an innovative component of the new Human Rights Council in 2006 has suffered little academic scrutiny. This is partly because it holds as its objective an improvement in human rights situations on the ground, a goal that is difficult to test amongst so many possible causal factors attributable to law reform and policy change, and partly due to the fact that the mechanism has only completed one full cycle of review. This article seeks to remedy this absence of analysis by examining the experience of the United Kingdom during its first review. In doing so, the article first considers the conception of the UPR, before progressing to examine the procedure and recommendations made to the UK by its peers. Finally, the article considers the five year review of the UPR which occurred as a subset of the Human Rights Council Review in 2011 and the resulting changes to the process modalities.

Selecting the best targeted agent in first-line treatment of unresectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer:does the bench have the answers?

For physicians facing patients with organ-limited metastases from colorectal cancer, tumor shrinkage and sterilization of micrometastatic disease is the main goal, giving the opportunity for secondary surgical resection. At the same time, for the majority of patients who will not achieve a sufficient tumor response, disease control remains the predominant objective. Since FOLFOX or FOLFIRI have similar efficacies, the challenge is to define which could be the most effective targeted agent (anti-EGFR or anti-VEGF) to reach these goals. Therefore, a priori molecular identification of patients that could benefit from anti-EGFR or anti-VEGF monoclonal antibodies (i.e. the currently approved targeted therapies for metastatic colorectal cancer) is of critical importance. In this setting, the KRAS mutation status was the first identified predictive marker of response to anti-EGFR therapy. Since it has been demonstrated that tumors with KRAS mutation do not respond to anti-EGFR therapy, KRAS status must be determined prior to treatment. Thus, for KRAS wild-type patients, the choices that remain are either anti-VEGF or anti-EGFR. In this review, we present the most updated data from translational research programs dealing with the identification of biomarkers for response to targeted therapies.

Moytirra:Discovery of the first known deep-sea hydrothermal vent field on the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge north of the Azores

Geological, biological, morphological, and hydrochemical data are presented for the newly discovered Moytirra vent field at 45^oN. This is the only high temperature hydrothermal vent known between the Azores and Iceland, in the North Atlantic and is located on a slow to ultraslow-spreading mid-ocean ridge uniquely situated on the 300 m high fault scarp of the eastern axial wall, 3.5 km from the axial volcanic ridge crest. Furthermore, the Moytirra vent field is, unusually for tectonically controlled hydrothermal vents systems, basalt hosted and perched midway up on the median valley wall and presumably heated by an off-axis magma chamber. The Moytirra vent field consists of an alignment of four sites of venting, three actively emitting "black smoke," producing a complex of chimneys and beehive diffusers. The largest chimney is 18 m tall and vigorously venting. The vent fauna described here are the only ones documented for the North Atlantic (Azores to Reykjanes Ridge) and significantly expands our knowledge of North Atlantic biodiversity. The surfaces of the vent chimneys are occupied by aggregations of gastropods (Peltospira sp.) and populations of alvinocaridid shrimp (Mirocaris sp. with Rimicaris sp. also present). Other fauna present include bythograeid crabs (Segonzacia sp.) and zoarcid fish (Pachycara sp.), but bathymodiolin mussels and actinostolid anemones were not observed in the vent field. The discovery of the Moytirra vent field therefore expands the known latitudinal distributions of several vent-endemic genera in the north Atlantic, and reveals faunal affinities with vents south of the Azores rather than north of Iceland. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Vibrational excitation of the N2+ first negative (0,0), (1,0) and (2,0) bands by electron impact: a theoretical study using the R-matrix approach

Ab initio cross section calculations for vibronic excitation using the R -matrix approach have been performed on the N 2 + molecular ion complex. A three-state close-coupling expansion is used where the electronic target states; X 2 g + , A 2 u and B 2 u + of the molecular cation are represented by a valence configuration-interaction approximation. A non-adiabatic approximation is invoked to study vibronic excitation for the first three negative bands, (0,0), (1,0) and (2,0) of the X-B transition (B 2 u + v ´ X 2 g + v ´´ ) of N 2 + . Fixed-nuclei and non-adiabatic cross section results are compared with the available experimental data for the (0,0) band and the breakdown of the adiabatic fixed-nuclei approximation is clearly evident for the vibronic excitation of the (1,0) and (2,0) bands in this molecular ion complex.