Cross-Industry Product Diversification and Contagion in Risk and Return: The Case of Bank-Insurance and Insurance-Bank Takeovers

We investigate the impact of domestic/international bancassurance deals on the risk-return profiles of announcing and non-announcing banks and insurers within a GARCH model. Bank-insurance deals produce intra- and inter-industry contagion in both risk and return, with larger deals producing greater contagion. Bidder banks and peers experience positive abnormal returns, with the effects on insurer peers being stronger than those on bank peers. Insurance-bank deals produce insignificant excess returns for bidder and peer insurers and positive valuations for peer banks. Following the deal, the bank bidders’ idiosyncratic (systematic) risk falls (increases), while insurance bidders exhibit a lower systematic risk and maintain their idiosyncratic risk.

Understanding citizen media as practice: agents, processes, publics

Much recent commentary on citizen media has focused on online platforms as means through which citizens may disseminate self-produced media content that challenges dominant discourses or makes visible hidden realities. This chapter goes beyond a concern with media content to explore the much broader range of socially situated practices that develop around citizen media. Drawing on Couldry’s proposal for a practice paradigm in media research, it suggests shifting the focus from ‘citizen media’ to ‘citizen media practices’ and demonstrates, through a case study of communication activism in the World Social Forum, how this framework can bring into view a broad range of citizen media practices (beyond those directly concerned with the production and circulation of media content), the different forms of agency that such practices make possible, and the social fabric they can help generate. I conclude by arguing that a practice framework necessitates a rethink of the way that the concept of (counter-) publics is used in the context of citizen media. Citizen media practices of the kind described here can be understood not only as practices of ‘making public’ previously unreported issues and perspectives, but as practices of public¬-making: practices that support the formation of publics.

MASCEM: electricity markets simulation with strategic agents

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving numerous entities trying to obtain the best advantages and profits while limited by power-network characteristics and constraints.1 The restructuring and consequent deregulation of electricity markets introduced a new economic dimension to the power industry. Some observers have criticized the restructuring process, however, because it has failed to improve market efficiency and has complicated the assurance of reliability and fairness of operations. To study and understand this type of market, we developed the Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) platform based on multiagent simulation. The MASCEM multiagent model includes players with strategies for bid definition, acting in forward, day-ahead, and balancing markets and considering both simple and complex bids. Our goal with MASCEM was to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This approach makes MASCEM both a short- and mediumterm simulation as well as a tool to support long-term decisions, such as those taken by regulators. This article proposes a new methodology integrated in MASCEM for bid definition in electricity markets. This methodology uses reinforcement learning algorithms to let players perceive changes in the environment, thus helping them react to the dynamic environment and adapt their bids accordingly.

Seller, buyer and VPP agents behavior on a simulated electricity market

Competitive electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is an electricity market simulator able to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. As market players are complex entities, having their characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players, a multi-agent architecture is used and proved to be adequate. MASCEM players have learning capabilities and different risk preferences. They are able to refine their strategies according to their past experience (both real and simulated) and considering other agents’ behavior. Agents’ behavior is also subject to its risk preferences.

MV producers and consumers agents characterization with DSM techniques

This paper consist in the establishment of a Virtual Producer/Consumer Agent (VPCA) in order to optimize the integrated management of distributed energy resources and to improve and control Demand Side Management DSM) and its aggregated loads. The paper presents the VPCA architecture and the proposed function-based organization to be used in order to coordinate the several generation technologies, the different load types and storage systems. This VPCA organization uses a frame work based on data mining techniques to characterize the costumers. The paper includes results of several experimental tests cases, using real data and taking into account electricity generation resources as well as consumption data.

Self-managing agents for dynamic scheduling in manufacturing

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a Multi-Agent Autonomic and Bio-Inspired based framework with selfmanaging capabilities to solve complex scheduling problems using cooperative negotiation. Scheduling resolution requires the intervention of highly skilled human problem-solvers. This is a very hard and challenging domain because current systems are becoming more and more complex, distributed, interconnected and subject to rapidly changing. A natural Autonomic Computing (AC) evolution in relation to Current Computing is to provide systems with Self-Managing ability with a minimum human interference.

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Insignificant impact of prescribed fire on surface soil in a Pinus pinaster plantation, northern Portugal

Following a prescribed fire in a Pinus pinaster forest site located in the north-west Portugal, monitoring of any changes in selected soil characteristics and soil hydrology was undertaken to assess the effects of burning on the following: pH, electrical conductivity, water content, organic carbon and porosity. Thirty plots were established on a regular grid. At each sample plot before and after the fire, samples were collected (disturbed samples from depths of 0-1cm and 1-5cm; undisturbed core samples from 0-5cm). The results indicate that there was no measurable impact on the properties of the soil following this carefully conducted prescribed fire. The fire only affected the litter layer, as intended. Confirmation of this minimal impact on the soil was provided by regrowth of grasses and herbs already occurring two months after the fire. The implication is, therefore, that provided this wildfire-risk reduction strategy is carried out under existing strict guidelines, any impact on soil quality will be minimal.

Study on the changes of soil chemical characteristics as result of prescribed fire

Every year, particularly during the summer period, the Portuguese forests are devastated by forest fire that destroys their ecosystems. So in order to prevent these forest fires, public and private authorities frequently use methods for the reduction of combustible mass as the prescribed fire and the mechanical vegetation pruning. All of these methods of prevention of forest fires alter the vegetation layer and/or soil [1-2]. This work aimed the study of the variation of some chemical characteristics of soil that suffered prescribed fire. The studied an area was located in the Serra of Cabreira (Figure 1) with 54.6 ha. Twenty sampling points were randomly selected and samples were collected with a shovel before, just after the prescribed fire, and 125 and 196 days after that event. The parameters that were studied were: pH, soil moisture, organic matter and iron, magnesium and potassium total concentration. All the analysis followed International Standard Methodologies. This work allowed to conclude that: a) after the prescribed fire; i) the pH remained practically equal to the the initial value; ii) occurred a slight increase of the average of the organic matter contents and iron total contents; b) at the end of the sampling period compared to the initial values; i) the pH didn´t change significantly; ii) the average of the contents of organic matter decreased; and iii) the average of the total contents of Fe, Mg and K increased.

A qualitative description of soil parameters variation due to a prescribed fire in Portuguese northwestern forests using Fuzzy Boolean Nets — The case study of Cabreira mountain

In this paper we study the modifications that occurred in some forest soil properties after a prescribed fire. The research focused on the alterations of soil pH, soil moisture and soil organic matter content during a two-year span, from 2008 to 2009. The study site is located in Anjos, Vieira do Minho municipality, a forest site that has suffered from recurrent wildfires for several decades. Furze (Ulex, sp.), broom (Cytisus, sp.), gorse (Chamaespartum tridentatum) and a very few disperse adult pine (Pinus sylvestris) are the predominant vegetation type in the study area. The average height of this shrub vegetation is around 1.5 m. The prescribed fire was conducted by the National Forestry Authority (AFN) in November 2008. Fuzzy Boolean Nets (FBN) were used to evaluate the alteration in soil parameters when compared with adjacent spots where: i) no fire occurrence was registered since 1998; ii) fire occurrence was registered in 2008; and iii) vegetation pruning by mechanical cut was done in Spring six months prior to the prescribed fire event. Results suggest that in the particular case of the studied site, Anjos, the observed soil properties alterations cannot be related with the prescribed fire.

Characterization of soils in an area of prescribed fire

The prescribed fire is a technique that is often used, it has several advantages. Pedological and hydropedological techniques were tested to assess the prescribed fire changes may cause in soils. This work was performed in Tresminas area (Vila Pouca de Aguiar, Northern Portugal), during February and March 2011. In the present study we applied several techniques. For the field sampling was followed the ISO 10381-1[1], ISO 10381-2[2], and FAO rules [3], as well as were used a grid with 17 points for measuring the soil parameters. During the fire, we have tried to check, with the assistance of the Portuguese Forestry Authority, some important parameters such as, the propagation speed, the size of the flame front and the intensity of energy emitted per unit area. Before the fire, was collected carefully soil disturbed and undisturbed samples for laboratory analysis, and measured soil water content; we also have placed four sets of thermocouples for measuring soil temperature. After the fire, were collected the thermocouples and new soil samples; the water content were measured in the soil and collected ashes. In the laboratory, after preparing and sieving the samples, were determined the soil particle size. The soil pH and electrical conductivity in water was also determined. The total carbon (TC) and inorganic carbon (IC)[4] was measured by a Shimadzu TOC-Vcsn. The water content in soil has not varied significantly before and after the fire, as well as soil pH and soil electrical conductivity. The TC and IC did not change, which was expected, since the fire not overcome the 200° C. Through the various parameters, we determined that the prescribed fire didn’t affect the soil. The low temperature of the fire and its rapid implementation that lead to the possible adverse effects caused by the wild fire didn’t occurred.

Effects of prescribed fire on surface soil in a Pinus pinaster plantation, northern Portugal

In order to decrease the risk of severe wildfire, prescribed fire has recently been adopted in Portugal and elsewhere in the Mediterranean as a major tool for reducing the fuel load instead of manual or mechanical removal of vegetation. There has been some research into its impact on soils in shrublands and grasslands, but to date little research has been conducted in forested areas in the region. As a result, the impact of prescribed fire on the physico-chemical soil characteristics of forest soils has been assumed to be minimal, but this has not been demonstrated. In this study, we present the results of a monitoring campaign of a detailed pre- and post-prescribed fire assessment of soil properties in a long-unburnt P. pinaster plantation, NW Portugal. The soil characteristics examined were pH, total porosity, bulk density, moisture content, organic matter content and litter/ash quantity. The results show that there was no significant impact on the measured soil properties, the only effect being confined to minor changes in the upper 1 cm of soil. We conclude that provided the fire is carried out according to strict guidelines in P. pinaster forest, a minimal impact on soil properties can be expected.

Fuzzy Boolean nets investigation of the alteration of some physical forest soil properties due to a prescribed fire action

Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. Some preventive actions, such as prescribed (or controlled) burnings and clear-cut logging, are often used as a measure to reduce the occurrences of wildfires. In the particular case of Serra da Cabreira forest, due to extremely difficulties in operational field work, the prescribed (or controlled) burning technique is the the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel load amount. This paper focuses on a Fuzzy Boolean Nets analysis of the changes in some forest soil properties, namely pH, moisture and organic matter content, after a controlled fire, and on the difficulties found during the sampling process and how they were overcome. The monitoring process was conducted during a three-month period in Anjos, Vieira do Minho, Portugal, an area located in a contact zone between a two-mica coarse-grained porphyritic granite and a biotite with plagioclase granite. The sampling sites were located in a spot dominated by quartzphyllite with quartz veins whose bedrock is partially altered and covered by slightly thick humus, which maintains low undergrowth vegetation.

Acquisition and data analysis related to changes in some forest soils properties after prescribed fire action

Controlled fires in forest areas are frequently used in most Mediterranean countries as a preventive technique to avoid severe wildfires in summer season. In Portugal, this forest management method of fuel mass availability is also used and has shown to be beneficial as annual statistical reports confirm that the decrease of wildfires occurrence have a direct relationship with the controlled fire practice. However prescribed fire can have serious side effects in some forest soil properties. This work shows the changes that occurred in some forest soils properties after a prescribed fire action. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, that had not been burn for four years. The composed soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0-3cm, 3-6cm and 6-18cm) during a three-year monitoring period after the prescribed burning. Principal Component Analysis was used to reach the presented conclusions.