Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Vertical graphene gas- and bio-sensors via catalyst-free, reactive plasma reforming of natural honey

A rapid reforming of natural honey exposed to reactive low-temperature Ar + H2 plasmas produced high-quality, ultra-thin vertical graphenes, without any metal catalyst or external heating. This transformation is only possible in the plasma and fails in similar thermal processes. The process is energy-efficient, environmentally benign, and is much cheaper than common synthesis methods based on purified hydrocarbon precursors. The graphenes retain the essential minerals of natural honey, feature reactive open edges and reliable gas- and bio-sensing performance.

Structure-controlled, vertical graphene-based, binder-free electrodes from plasma-reformed butter enhance supercapacitor performance

Vertical graphene nanosheets (VGNS) hold great promise for high-performance supercapacitors owing to their excellent electrical transport property, large surface area and in particular, an inherent three-dimensional, open network structure. However, it remains challenging to materialise the VGNS-based supercapacitors due to their poor specific capacitance, high temperature processing, poor binding to electrode support materials, uncontrollable microstructure, and non-cost effective way of fabrication. Here we use a single-step, fast, scalable, and environmentally-benign plasma-enabled method to fabricate VGNS using cheap and spreadable natural fatty precursor butter, and demonstrate the controllability over the degree of graphitization and the density of VGNS edge planes. Our VGNS employed as binder-free supercapacitor electrodes exhibit high specific capacitance up to 230 F g−1 at a scan rate of 10 mV s−1 and >99% capacitance retention after 1,500 charge-discharge cycles at a high current density, when the optimum combination of graphitic structure and edge plane effects is utilised. The energy storage performance can be further enhanced by forming stable hybrid MnO2/VGNS nano-architectures which synergistically combine the advantages from both VGNS and MnO2. This deterministic and plasma-unique way of fabricating VGNS may open a new avenue for producing functional nanomaterials for advanced energy storage devices.

Plasma-enabled graded nanotube biosensing arrays on a Si nanodevice platform : catalyst-free integration and in situ detection of nucleation events

Low-temperature plasmas in direct contact with arbitrary, written linear features on a Si wafer enable catalyst-free integration of carbon nanotubes into a Si-based nanodevice platform and in situ resolution of individual nucleation events. The graded nanotube arrays show reliable, reproducible, and competitive performance in electron field emission and biosensing nanodevices.

Plasma-enabled, catalyst-free growth of carbon nanotubes on mechanically-written Si features with arbitrary shape

Simple, rapid, catalyst-free synthesis of complex patterns of long, vertically aligned multiwalled carbon nanotubes, strictly confined within mechanically-written features on a Si(1 0 0) surface is reported. It is shown that dense arrays of the nanotubes can nucleate and fully fill the features when the low-temperature microwave plasma is in a direct contact with the surface. This eliminates additional nanofabrication steps and inevitable contact losses in applications associated with carbon nanotube patterns. Using metal catalyst has long been considered essential for the nucleation and growth of surface-supported carbon nanotubes (CNTs) [1] and [2]. Only very recently, the possibility of CNT growth using non-metallic (e.g., oxide [3] and SiC [4]) catalysts or artificially created carbon-enriched surface layers [5] has been demonstrated. However, successful integration of carbon nanostructures into Si-based nanodevice platforms requires catalyst-free growth, as the catalyst nanoparticles introduce contact losses, and their catalytic activity is very difficult to control during the growth [6]. Furthermore, in many applications in microfluidics, biological and molecular filters, electronic, sensor, and energy conversion nanodevices, the CNTs need to be arranged in specific complex patterns [7] and [8]. These patterns need to contain the basic features (e.g., lines and dots) written using simple procedures and fully filled with dense arrays of high-quality, straight, yet separated nanotubes. In this paper, we report on a completely metal or oxide catalyst-free plasma-based approach for the direct and rapid growth of dense arrays of long vertically-aligned multi-walled carbon nanotubes arranged into complex patterns made of various combinations of basic features on a Si(1 0 0) surface written using simple mechanical techniques. The process was conducted in a plasma environment [9] and [10] produced by a microwave discharge which typically generates the low-temperature plasmas at the discharge power below 1 kW [11]. Our process starts from mechanical writing (scribing) a pattern of arbitrary features on pre-treated Si(1 0 0) wafers. Before and after the mechanical feature writing, the Si(1 0 0) substrates were cleaned in an aqueous solution of hydrofluoric acid for 2 min to remove any possible contaminations (such as oil traces which could decompose to free carbon at elevated temperatures) from the substrate surface. A piece of another silicon wafer cleaned in the same way as the substrate, or a diamond scriber were used to produce the growth patterns by a simple arbitrary mechanical writing, i.e., by making linear scratches or dot punctures on the Si wafer surface. The results were the same in both cases, i.e., when scratching the surface by Si or a diamond scriber. The procedure for preparation of the substrates did not involve any possibility of external metallic contaminations on the substrate surface. After the preparation, the substrates were loaded into an ASTeX model 5200 chemical vapour deposition (CVD) reactor, which was very carefully conditioned to remove any residue contamination. The samples were heated to at least 800 °C to remove any oxide that could have formed during the sample loading [12]. After loading the substrates into the reactor chamber, N2 gas was supplied into the chamber at the pressure of 7 Torr to ignite and sustain the discharge at the total power of 200 W. Then, a mixture of CH4 and 60% of N2 gases were supplied at 20 Torr, and the discharge power was increased to 700 W (power density of approximately 1.49 W/cm3). During the process, the microwave plasma was in a direct contact with the substrate. During the plasma exposure, no external heating source was used, and the substrate temperature (∼850 °C) was maintained merely due to the plasma heating. The features were exposed to a microwave plasma for 3–5 min. A photograph of the reactor and the plasma discharge is shown in Fig. 1a and b.

Single-step, catalyst-free plasma-assisted synthesis and growth mechanism of single-crystalline aluminum nitride nanorods

Synthesis of one-dimensional AlN nanostructures commonly requires high process temperatures (>900 °C), metal catalyst, and hazardous gas/powder precursors. We report on a simple, single-step, catalyst-free, plasma-assisted growth of dense patterns of size-uniform single-crystalline AlN nanorods at a low substrate temperature (∼650 °C) without any catalyst or hazardous precursors. This unusual growth mechanism is based on highly effective plasma dissociation of N2 molecules, localized species precipitation on AlN islands, and reduced diffusion on the nitrogen-rich surface. This approach can also be used to produce other high-aspect-ratio oxide and nitride nanostructures for applications in energy conversion, sensing, and optoelectronics. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

The effect of the nonparabolicity of the free carriers dispersion law on the propagation of surface polaritons in a semiconductor-metal structure

The results of a study on the influence of the nonparabolicity of the free carriers dispersion law on the propagation of surface polaritons (SPs) located near the interface between an n-type semiconductor and a metal arc reported. The semiconductor plasma is assumed to be warm and nonisothermal. The nonparabolicity of the electron dispersion law has two effects. The first one is associated with nonlinear self-interaction of the SPs. The nonlinear dispersion equation and the nonlinear Schrodinger equation for the amplitude of the SP envelope are obtained. The nonlinear evolution of the SP is studied on the base of the above mentioned equations. The second effect results in third harmonics generation. Analysis shows that these third harmonics may appear as a pure surface polariton, a pseudosurface polariton, or a superposition of a volume wave and a SP depending on the wave frequency, electron density and lattice dielectric constant.

Corner and finger formation in Hele-Shaw flow with kinetic undercooling regularisation

We examine the effect of a kinetic undercooling condition on the evolution of a free boundary in Hele--Shaw flow, in both bubble and channel geometries. We present analytical and numerical evidence that the bubble boundary is unstable and may develop one or more corners in finite time, for both expansion and contraction cases. This loss of regularity is interesting because it occurs regardless of whether the less viscous fluid is displacing the more viscous fluid, or vice versa. We show that small contracting bubbles are described to leading order by a well-studied geometric flow rule. Exact solutions to this asymptotic problem continue past the corner formation until the bubble contracts to a point as a slit in the limit. Lastly, we consider the evolving boundary with kinetic undercooling in a Saffman--Taylor channel geometry. The boundary may either form corners in finite time, or evolve to a single long finger travelling at constant speed, depending on the strength of kinetic undercooling. We demonstrate these two different behaviours numerically. For the travelling finger, we present results of a numerical solution method similar to that used to demonstrate the selection of discrete fingers by surface tension. With kinetic undercooling, a continuum of corner-free travelling fingers exists for any finger width above a critical value, which goes to zero as the kinetic undercooling vanishes. We have not been able to compute the discrete family of analytic solutions, predicted by previous asymptotic analysis, because the numerical scheme cannot distinguish between solutions characterised by analytic fingers and those which are corner-free but non-analytic.

Keyword field-free conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data and extension for dynamic groups

We consider the following problem: a user stores encrypted documents on an untrusted server, and wishes to retrieve all documents containing some keywords without any loss of data confidentiality. Conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data have been studied by numerous researchers over the past few years, and all existing schemes use keyword fields as compulsory information. This however is impractical for many applications. In this paper, we propose a scheme of keyword field-free conjunctive keyword searches on encrypted data, which affirmatively answers an open problem asked by Golle et al. at ACNS 2004. Furthermore, the proposed scheme is extended to the dynamic group setting. Security analysis of our constructions is given in the paper.

Beneficial defects : exploiting the intrinsic polishing-induced wafer roughness for the catalyst-free growth of Ge in-plane nanowires

We outline a metal-free fabrication route of in-plane Ge nanowires on Ge(001) substrates. By positively exploiting the polishing-induced defects of standard-quality commercial Ge(001) wafers, micrometer-length wires are grown by physical vapor deposition in ultra-high-vacuum environment. The shape of the wires can be tailored by the epitaxial strain induced by subsequent Si deposition, determining a progressive transformation of the wires in SiGe faceted quantum dots. This shape transition is described by finite element simulations of continuous elasticity and gives hints on the equilibrium shape of nanocrystals in the presence of tensile epitaxial strain.

Determination of strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes using atomic force microscopy and inverse finite element analysis

The aim of this paper is to determine the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of living and fixed osteocytes and chondrocytes, in vitro. Firstly, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to obtain the force-indentation curves of these single cells at four different strain-rates. These results were then employed in inverse finite element analysis (FEA) using Modified Standard neo-Hookean Solid (MSnHS) idealization of these cells to determine their mechanical properties. In addition, a FEA model with a newly developed spring element was employed to accurately simulate AFM evaluation in this study. We report that both cytoskeleton (CSK) and intracellular fluid govern the strain-rate-dependent mechanical property of living cells whereas intracellular fluid plays a predominant role on fixed cells’ behavior. In addition, through the comparisons, it can be concluded that osteocytes are stiffer than chondrocytes at all strain-rates tested indicating that the cells could be the biomarker of their tissue origin. Finally, we report that MSnHS is able to capture the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of osteocyte and chondrocyte for both living and fixed cells. Therefore, we concluded that the MSnHS is a good model for exploration of mechanical deformation responses of single osteocytes and chondrocytes. This study could open a new avenue for analysis of mechanical behavior of osteocytes and chondrocytes as well as other similar types of cells.

Clinicopathological relevance of BRAF mutations in human cancer

BRAF represents one of the most frequently mutated protein kinase genes in human tumours. The mutation is commonly tested in pathology practice. BRAF mutation is seen in melanoma, papillary thyroid carcinoma (including papillary thyroid carcinoma arising from ovarian teratoma), ovarian serous tumours, colorectal carcinoma, gliomas, hepatobiliary carcinomas and hairy cell leukaemia. In these cancers, various genetic aberrations of the BRAF proto-oncogene, such as different point mutations and chromosomal rearrangements, have been reported. The most common mutation, BRAF V600E, can be detected by DNA sequencing and immunohistochemistry on formalin fixed, paraffin embedded tumour tissue. Detection of BRAF V600E mutation has the potential for clinical use as a diagnostic and prognostic marker. In addition, a great deal of research effort has been spent in strategies inhibiting its activity. Indeed, recent clinical trials involving BRAF selective inhibitors exhibited promising response rates in metastatic melanoma patients. Clinical trials are underway for other cancers. However, cutaneous side effects of treatment have been reported and therapeutic response to cancer is short-lived due to the emergence of several resistance mechanisms. In this review, we give an update on the clinical pathological relevance of BRAF mutation in cancer. It is hoped that the review will enhance the direction of future research and assist in more effective use of the knowledge of BRAF mutation in clinical practice.

An application of the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire in a large Australian organisational fleeting setting : can it predict crashes and demerit point loss?

This study reports on the utilisation of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours of a large sample of Australian fleet drivers (N = 3414). Surveys were completed by employees before they commenced a one day safety workshop intervention. Factor analysis techniques identified a three factor solution similar to previous research, which was comprised of: (a) errors, (b) highway-code violations and (c) aggressive driving violations. Two items traditionally related with highway-code violations were found to be associated with aggressive driving behaviours among the current sample. Multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to the road, errors and self-reported offences predicted crashes at work in the last 12 months, while gender, highway violations and crashes predicted offences incurred while at work. Importantly, those who received more fines at work were at an increased risk of crashing the work vehicle. However, overall, the DBQ demonstrated limited efficacy at predicting these two outcomes. This paper outlines the major findings of the study in regards to identifying and predicting aberrant driving behaviours and also highlights implications regarding the future utilisation of the DBQ within fleet settings.

Defining the spatiotemporal surveillance space for alien species’ invasions using approximate Bayesian computation

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.

Annealing-free high-mobility diketopyrrolopyrrole-quaterthiophene copolymer for solution-processed organic thin film transistors

A donor-acceptor polymer semiconductor, PDQT, comprising diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) and β-unsubstituted quaterthiophene (QT) for organic thin film transistors (OTFTs) is reported. This polymer forms ordered layer-by-layer lamellar packing with an edge-on orientation in thin films even without thermal annealing. The strong intermolecular interactions arising from the fused aromatic DPP moiety and the DPP-QT donor-acceptor interaction facilitate the spontaneous self-assembly of the polymer chains into close proximity and form a large π-π overlap, which are favorable for intermolecular charge hopping. The well-interconnected crystalline grains form efficient intergranular charge transport pathways. The desirable chemical, electronic, and morphological structures of PDQT bring about high hole mobility of up to 0.97 cm2/(V·s) in OTFTs with polymer thin films annealed at a mild temperature of 100 °C and similarly high mobility of 0.89 cm2/(V·s) for polymer thin films even without thermal annealing.