Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

A quantum probability perspective on borderline vagueness

The term “vagueness” describes a property of natural concepts, which normally have fuzzy boundaries, admit borderline cases, and are susceptible to Zeno’s sorites paradox. We will discuss the psychology of vagueness, especially experiments investigating the judgment of borderline cases and contradictions. In the theoretical part, we will propose a probabilistic model that describes the quantitative characteristics of the experimental finding and extends Alxatib’s and Pelletier’s (2011) theoretical analysis. The model is based on a Hopfield network for predicting truth values. Powerful as this classical perspective is, we show that it falls short of providing an adequate coverage of the relevant empirical results. In the final part, we will argue that a substan- tial modification of the analysis put forward by Alxatib and Pelletier and its probabilistic pendant is needed. The proposed modification replaces the standard notion of probabilities by quantum probabilities. The crucial phenomenon of borderline contradictions can be explained then as a quantum interference phenomenon.

Polyandry and paternity skew in natural and experimental populations of Drosophila serrata

Many species engage in polyandry, resulting in the potential for sexual selection to continue post-copulation through sperm competition and/or cryptic female choice. The relative importance of pre- vs. post-copulatory processes remains unknown for most species despite this information being fundamental for understanding the evolutionary consequences of sexual selection. The Australian fruit fly Drosophila serrata has become a prominent model system for studying precopulatory sexual selection, such as mating preferences and their influence on the evolution of sexually selected traits. Here, we investigated polyandry and the potential for post-copulatory sexual selection in this species using indirect paternity analysis. We genotyped 21 wild-caught and 19 laboratory-reared mothers and their offspring (a total of 787 flies) at six microsatellite loci and found extensive polyandry, with all broods surveyed having at least two sires. Female remating rates were higher than in other Drosophila surveyed to date and no significant differences were found between laboratory and field populations. Additionally, we found evidence for biased sperm usage in several broods of D. serrata. Paternity skew occurred more frequently in broods from the field population than the laboratory one, suggesting differences between the two environments in the level of post-copulatory sexual selection. Our data suggest that D. serrata represents a promising system for studying the interaction between pre- and post-copulatory sexual selection in driving the evolution of sexually selected phenotypes.

The effect of charge on ultrafine particle deposition : an experimental pilot study

Eepidemiological studies have linked exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) to a variety of adverse health effects. To understand the mechanisms behind these effects, it is essential to measure aerosol deposition in the human respiratory tract. Electrical charge is a very important property as it may increase the particle deposition in human respiratory tract (Melanderi et al., 1983). However, the effect of charge on UFP deposition has seldom been investigated. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of charge on UFP deposition in human lung, by conducting a pilot study using a tube-based experimental system.

Experimental study of the effect of charge on ultrafine particle deposition

The health effects of ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) have received increasing attention in recent years and particles from a variety of indoor sources, such as combustion or printer emissions, fall within this size range. Since people spend most of their time indoors, knowledge on aerosol deposition in the human respiratory tract is essential to minimise the health risks associated with environmental or occupational exposure to aerosol particles. Among the factors that could alter particle deposition, electrical charge is important as it may increase particle deposition in human respiratory tract (Melanderi et al., 1983), even when particles carry only a few charges. However, evidence showing such an increase in particle deposition for UFPs is sparse. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of charge on the deposition of UFPs in the human lung by studying the deposition of charged particles in the conductive tubing of an experimental laboratory system.

Experimental evaluation of the culture performance of three exotic and a ‘local’ Giant Freshwater Prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii, De Man 1879) culture strain in Fiji

Giant freshwater prawn (GFP; Macrobrachium rosenbergii) aquaculture has expanded rapidly since 1990. Most local culture industries, however, have developed in an unsystematic way. Fiji has a small culture industry producing the ‘Anuenue’ strain; however, performance of this strain has never been systematically evaluated. Recently, some Fijian farmers have reported declines in stock productivity. The current project evaluated the relative performance of three exotic strains with different genetic backgrounds from Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, against the ‘local’ strain in Fiji in a 4 × 3 replicated pond trial experiment. A total of 5827 prawns were harvested after 143 days growout. Individual growth rate and relative survival of the Fiji strain were not statistically different from any of the introduced strains, but Vietnam strain was superior to that of the Malaysia strain. Genetic diversity showed significant differences in variability among strains, with the Malaysian strain displaying the lowest genetic diversity. Indonesia strain showed that females were reaching maturation earlier than other strains and were smaller in size. This study suggests that Malaysian and Indonesian strains would constitute a poor choice for Fiji, whereas the Vietnam strain consistently performed well on all criteria measured. High variation among replicate ponds within strains unfortunately confounded among-strain variation.

Experimental observations of rapid maize streak virus evolution reveal a strand-specific nucleotide substitution bias

Background. Recent reports have indicated that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses in the taxonomic families Geminiviridae, Parvoviridae and Anellovirus may be evolving at rates of ∼10-4 substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). These evolution rates are similar to those of RNA viruses and are surprisingly high given that ssDNA virus replication involves host DNA polymerases with fidelities approximately 10 000 times greater than those of error-prone viral RNA polymerases. Although high ssDNA virus evolution rates were first suggested in evolution experiments involving the geminivirus maize streak virus (MSV), the evolution rate of this virus has never been accurately measured. Also, questions regarding both the mechanistic basis and adaptive value of high geminivirus mutation rates remain unanswered. Results. We determined the short-term evolution rate of MSV using full genome analysis of virus populations initiated from cloned genomes. Three wild type viruses and three defective artificial chimaeric viruses were maintained in planta for up to five years and displayed evolution rates of between 7.4 × 10-4 and 7.9 × 10-4 subs/site/year. Conclusion. These MSV evolution rates are within the ranges observed for other ssDNA viruses and RNA viruses. Although no obvious evidence of positive selection was detected, the uneven distribution of mutations within the defective virus genomes suggests that some of the changes may have been adaptive. We also observed inter-strand nucleotide substitution imbalances that are consistent with a recent proposal that high mutation rates in geminiviruses (and possibly ssDNA viruses in general) may be due to mutagenic processes acting specifically on ssDNA molecules. © 2008 Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Experimental evidence indicating that mastreviruses probably did not co-diverge with their hosts

Background. Despite the demonstration that geminiviruses, like many other single stranded DNA viruses, are evolving at rates similar to those of RNA viruses, a recent study has suggested that grass-infecting species in the genus Mastrevirus may have co-diverged with their hosts over millions of years. This "co-divergence hypothesis" requires that long-term mastrevirus substitution rates be at least 100,000-fold lower than their basal mutation rates and 10,000-fold lower than their observable short-term substitution rates. The credibility of this hypothesis, therefore, hinges on the testable claim that negative selection during mastrevirus evolution is so potent that it effectively purges 99.999% of all mutations that occur. Results. We have conducted long-term evolution experiments lasting between 6 and 32 years, where we have determined substitution rates of between 2 and 3 × 10 -4substitutions/site/year for the mastreviruses Maize streak virus (MSV) and Sugarcane streak Réunion virus (SSRV). We further show that mutation biases are similar for different geminivirus genera, suggesting that mutational processes that drive high basal mutation rates are conserved across the family. Rather than displaying signs of extremely severe negative selection as implied by the co-divergence hypothesis, our evolution experiments indicate that MSV and SSRV are predominantly evolving under neutral genetic drift. Conclusion. The absence of strong negative selection signals within our evolution experiments and the uniformly high geminivirus substitution rates that we and others have reported suggest that mastreviruses cannot have co-diverged with their hosts. © 2009 Harkins et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Image based flow visualisation of experimental flow fields inside a gross pollutant trap

Typical flow fields in a stormwater gross pollutant trap (GPT) with blocked retaining screens were experimentally captured and visualised. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) software was used to capture the flow field data by tracking neutrally buoyant particles with a high speed camera. A technique was developed to apply the Image Based Flow Visualization (IBFV) algorithm to the experimental raw dataset generated by the PIV software. The dataset consisted of scattered 2D point velocity vectors and the IBFV visualisation facilitates flow feature characterisation within the GPT. The flow features played a pivotal role in understanding gross pollutant capture and retention within the GPT. It was found that the IBFV animations revealed otherwise unnoticed flow features and experimental artefacts. For example, a circular tracer marker in the IBFV program visually highlighted streamlines to investigate specific areas and identify the flow features within the GPT.

Young citizens, values and new/s media

The adaptation of market segmentation to political communication is identified here as a neglected explanation for why young people often figure in popular political debates as both the cause and symptom of declining social values and civic participation. New media also contribute to public anxiety because they enable new forms of mediated civic engagement and disrupt the capacity of transmission media to bind nations. Declining engagement with news media is used as an index of young peoples' lack of civic-mindedness but, as research surveyed and reported here shows, this trend away from orthodox news forms is apparent across all age groups, not just youth. This article makes the case for public debate, informed by research that addresses the substantive problems of transforming democracy.

Average structure of an An (sub 48) plagioclase from the Hogarth Ranges

The average structure (CI) of a volcanic plagioclase megacryst with composition Ano, from the Hogarth Ranges, Australia, has been determined using three-dimensional, singlecrystal neutron and X-ray diffraction data. Least squaresr efinements, incorporating anisotropic thermal motion of all atoms and an extinction correction, resulted in weighted R factors (based on intensities) of 0.076 and 0.056, respectively, for the neutron and X-ray data. Very weak e reflections could be detected in long-exposure X-ray and electron diffraction photographs of this crystal, but the refined average structure is believed to be unaffected by the presence of such a weak superstructure. The ratio of the scattering power of Na to that of Ca is different for X ray and neutron radiation, and this radiation-dependence of scattering power has been used to determine the distribution of Na and Ca over a split-atom M site (two sites designated M' and M") in this Ano, plagioclase. Relative peak-height ratios M'/M", revealed in difference Fourier sections calculated from neutron and X-ray data, formed the basis for the cation-distribution analysis. As neutron and X-ray data sets were directly compared in this analysis, it was important that systematic bias between refined neutron and X-ray positional parameters could be demonstrated to be absent. In summary, with an M-site model constrained only by the electron-microprobedetermined bulk composition of the crystal, the following values were obtained for the M-site occupanciesN: ar, : 0.29(7),N ar. : 0.23(7),C ar, : 0.15(4),a nd Car" : 0.33(4). These results indicate that restrictive assumptions about M sites, on which previous plagioclase refinements have been based, are not applicable to this Ano, and possibly not to the entire compositional range. T-site ordering determined by (T-O) bond-length variation-t,o : 0.51(l), trm = t2o = t2m = 0.32(l)-is weak, as might be expectedf rom the volcanic origin of this megacryst.

Experimental transformation of kaolinite to halloysite

A well-characterized kaolinite has been hydrated in order to test the hypothesis that platey kaolinite will roll upon hydration. Kaolinite hydrates are prepared by repeated intercalation of kaolinite with potassium acetate and subsequent washing with water. On hydration, kaolinite plates roll along the major crystallographic directions to form tubes identical to proper tubular halloysite. Most tubes are elongated along the b crystallographic axis, while some are elongated along the a axis. Overall, the tubes exhibit a range of crystallinity. Well-ordered examples show a 2-layer structure, while poorly ordered tubes show little or no 3-dimensional order. Cross-sectional views of the formed tubes show both smoothly curved layers and planar faces. These characteristics of the experimentally formed tubes are shared by natural halloysites. Therefore, it is proposed that planar kaolinite can transform to tubular halloysite.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods to used elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We asked subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decision between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that while on an aggregate(subject pool) level the results are (roughly) consistent, on an individual(within-subject) level,behavior is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low correlations. This again questions the reliability of experimental risk elicitation measures and the ability to use results from such methods to control for the risk aversion of subjects when explaining e�ects in other experimental games.

Experimental studies of the shear behavior and strength of LiteSteel beams with stiffened web openings

Abstract: LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel hollow flange channel section produced using a patented manufacturing process. It is commonly used as flexural members in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. Current practice in flooring systems is to include openings in the web element of floor joists or bearers so that building services can be located within them. Test results have shown that the shear capacity of LSBs can be reduced considerably by the inclusion of web openings. A cost effective method of eliminating the detrimental effects of a large web opening is to attach suitable stiffeners around the web openings of LSBs. A detailed experimental study consisting of 17 shear tests was therefore undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs with stiffened circular web openings. Both plate and stud stiffeners with varying sizes and thicknesses were attached to the web elements of LSBs using a number of screw-fastening arrangements in order to develop a suitable stiffening arrangement for LSBs. Simply supported test specimens of LSBs with an aspect ratio of 1.5 were loaded at mid-span until failure. This paper presents the details of this experimental study of LSBs with stiffened web openings, and the results of their shear capacities and associated behavioural characteristics. Suitable screw-fastened plate stiffener arrangements have been recommended in order to restore the original shear capacity of LSBs.

Narratives of the 'everyday' in Rio de Janeiro's favelas : community photographers' attempts at generating alternative news values [Narrativas do cotidiano nas favelas do Rio de Janeiro: tentativas de construção de valores-notícia alternativos pelos fotógrafos populares]

Abstract This paper presents the partial results of an ongoing research project which investigates ethnographically community (photo)journalism media initiatives, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Viva Rio and Observatorio de Favelas (NGOs) run projects that provide favela residents with skills to take, edit and print their own (photo) journalism contents that enables community-based framing and documentation of favela live, personalities and issues. Three months of fieldwork related to these projects in Rio's favelas generated remarkable theoretical issues that represent the community photographers' attempt to establish counter news values by shifting the focus from poverty, shortages, violence and criminality to images of the ordinary life which included the myriad events that occurs in the day of the favelas. Resumo Este artigo apresenta os resultados parciais de uma pesquisa em andamento que, a partir do método etnográfico, investiga os projetos de comunicação comunitária, jornalismo e fotojornalismo, no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. As organizações não-governamentais (ONGs) Viva Rio e Observatório de Favela apoiam projetos que objetivam tornar moradores de favelas capazes de produzir, editar e publicar as suas próprias narrativas sobre personagens e questões do cotidiano de suas comunidades. O trabalho de campo sobre estes projetos, realizado durante três meses nas favelas do Rio de Janeiro, forneceu questões teóricas relevantes que representam o esforço dos fotógrafos populares para estabelecer contra valores-notícia transferindo o foco da pobreza, escassez, violência e criminalidade para imagens do cotidiano que inclui uma miríade de eventos que acontecem no dia-a-dia das favelas.