What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate.

Analysis of the genetic diversity and structure across a wide range of germplasm reveals prominent gene flow in apple at the European level

Abstract Background: The amount and structure of genetic diversity in dessert apple germplasm conserved at a European level is mostly unknown, since all diversity studies conducted in Europe until now have been performed on regional or national collections. Here, we applied a common set of 16 SSR markers to genotype more than 2,400 accessions across 14 collections representing three broad European geographic regions (North+East, West and South) with the aim to analyze the extent, distribution and structure of variation in the apple genetic resources in Europe. Results: A Bayesian model-based clustering approach showed that diversity was organized in three groups, although these were only moderately differentiated (FST=0.031). A nested Bayesian clustering approach allowed identification of subgroups which revealed internal patterns of substructure within the groups, allowing a finer delineation of the variation into eight subgroups (FST=0.044). The first level of stratification revealed an asymmetric division of the germplasm among the three groups, and a clear association was found with the geographical regions of origin of the cultivars. The substructure revealed clear partitioning of genetic groups among countries, but also interesting associations between subgroups and breeding purposes of recent cultivars or particular usage such as cider production. Additional parentage analyses allowed us to identify both putative parents of more than 40 old and/or local cultivars giving interesting insights in the pedigree of some emblematic cultivars. Conclusions: The variation found at group and sub-group levels may reflect a combination of historical processes of migration/selection and adaptive factors to diverse agricultural environments that, together with genetic drift, have resulted in extensive genetic variation but limited population structure. The European dessert apple germplasm represents an important source of genetic diversity with a strong historical and patrimonial value. The present work thus constitutes a decisive step in the field of conservation genetics. Moreover, the obtained data can be used for defining a European apple core collection useful for further identification of genomic regions associated with commercially important horticultural traits in apple through genome-wide association studies.

The European External Action Service and the Implementation of the 'Union Method' in European Foreign Policy

The European External Action Service (EEAS or Service) is one of the most significant and most debated innovations introduced by the Lisbon Treaty. This analysis intends to explain the anomalous design of the EEAS in light of its function, which consists in the promotion of external action coherence. Coherence is a principle of the EU legal system, which requires synergy in the external actions of the Union and its Members. It can be enforced only through the coordination of European policy-makers' initiatives, by bridging the gap between the 'Communitarian' and intergovernmental approaches. This is the 'Union method' envisaged by A. Merkel: "coordinated action in a spirit of solidarity - each of us in the area for which we are responsible but all working towards the same goal". The EEAS embodies the 'Union method', since it is institutionally linked to both Union organs and Member States. It is also capable of enhancing synergy in policy management and promoting unity in international representation, since its field of action is delimited not by an abstract concern for institutional balance but by a pragmatic assessment of the need for coordination in each sector. The challenge is now to make sure that this pragmatic approach is applied with respect to all the activities of the Service, in order to reinforce its effectiveness. The coordination brought by the EEAS is in fact the only means through which a European foreign policy can come into being: the choice is not between the Community method and the intergovernmental method, but between a coordinated position and nothing at all.

Conservation genetics of European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris): a wide and integrating analysis protocol for admixture inferences and population structure

Introgression of domestic cat genes into European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris) populations and reduction of wildcats’ range in Europe, leaded by habitat loss and fragmentation, are considered two of the main conservation problems for this endangered feline. This thesis addressed the questions related with the artificial hybridization and populations’ fragmentation, using a conservation genetics perspective. We combined the use of highly polymorphic loci, Bayesian statistical inferences and landscape analyses tools to investigate the origin of the geographic-genetic substructure of European wildcats (Felis silvestris silvestris) in Italy and Europe. The genetic variability of microsatellites evidenced that European wildcat populations currently distributed in Italy differentiated in, and expanded from two distinct glacial refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. The genetic and geographic substructure detected between the eastern and western sides of the Apennine ridge, resulted by adaptation to specific ecological conditions of the Mediterranean habitats. European wildcat populations in Europe are strongly structured into 5 geographic-genetic macro clusters corresponding to: the Italian peninsular & Sicily; Balkans & north-eastern Italy; Germany eastern; central Europe; and Iberian Peninsula. Central European population might have differentiated in the extra-Mediterranean Würm ice age refuge areas (Northern Alps, Carpathians, and the Bulgarian mountain systems), while the divergence among and within the southern European populations might have resulted by the Pleistocene bio geographical framework of Europe, with three southern refugia localized in the Balkans, Italian Peninsula and Iberia Peninsula. We further combined the use of most informative autosomal SNPs with uniparental markers (mtDNA and Y-linked) for accurately detecting parental genotypes and levels of introgressive hybridization between European wild and domestic cats. A total of 11 hybrids were identified. The presence of domestic mitochondrial haplotypes shared with some wild individuals led us to hypnotize the possibility that ancient introgressive events might have occurred and that further investigation should be recommended.

Sitosterolaemia in Switzerland: molecular genetics links the US Amish-Mennonites to their European roots

Sitosterolaemia is a rare autosomal recessive disease characterized by increased intestinal absorption of plant sterols, decreased hepatic excretion into bile and elevated concentrations in plasma phytosterols. Homozygous or compound heterozygous loss of function mutations in either of the ATP-binding cassette (ABC) proteins ABCG5 and ABCG8 explain the increased absorption of plant sterols. Here we report a Swiss index patient with sitosterolaemia, who presented with the classical symptoms of xanthomas, but also had mitral and aortic valvular heart disease. Her management over the last 20 years included a novel therapeutic approach of high-dose cholesterol feeding that was semi-effective. Mutational and extended haplotype analyses showed that our patient shared this haplotype with that of the Amish-Mennonite sitosterolaemia patients, indicating they are related ancestrally.

Principals, agents, and the European Union’s foreign economic policies

In the introduction to this collection on the principal–agent approach and the European Union’s (EU) foreign economic policies we briefly present the EU’s institutional structure for policy-making in trade, monetary, development and international competition and financial policy. We also offer some data on the extent of the EU’s involvement in the international economy. Our discussion of the principal–agent approach and how it can be applied to an analysis of the EU’s foreign economic policies forms the basis of the following contributions. It allows us to formulate three questions that are of particular interest for applications of the principal–agent approach to the EU. Finally, we summarize the various studies included in this collection.

Introduction XXIX European Seminar in Ethnomusicology: Cultural Mapping and Musical Diversity

«Cultural mapping» has become a central keyword in the UNESCO strategy to protect world cultural and natural heritage. It can be described as a tool to increase the awareness of cultural diversity. As Crawhall (2009) pointed out, cultural mapping was initially considered to represent the «landscapes in two or three dimensions from the perspectives of indigenous and local peoples». It thus transforms the intangible cultural heritage to visible items by establishing profiles of cultures and communities, including music traditions. Cultural mapping is used as a resource for a variety of purposes as broad as peace building, adaptation to climate change, sustainability management, heritage debate and management, but can also become highly useful in the analysis of conflict points. Music plays a significant role in each of these aspects. This year’s symposium invites to highlight, yet also to critically reassess this topic from the following ethnomusicological perspectives: - The method of cultural mapping in ethnomusicology What approaches and research techniques have been used so far to establish musical maps in this context? What kinds of maps have been developed (and, for example, how far do these relate to indigenous mental maps that have only been transmitted orally)? How far do these modern approaches deviate from the earlier cultural mapping approaches of the cultural area approaches that were still evident with Alan P. Merriam and in Alan Lomax` Cantometrics? In how far are the methods of cultural mapping and of ethnomusicological fieldwork different and how can they benefit from each other? - Intangible cultural heritage and musical diversity As the 2003 UNESCO Convention for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage pointed out in Article 12, each state signing the declaration «shall draw up, in a manner geared to its own situation, one or more inventories of the intangible cultural heritage, present in its territory and monitor these.» This symposium calls for a critical re-assessment of the hitherto established UNESCO intangible cultural heritage lists. The idea is to highlight the sensitive nature and the effects of the various heritage representations. «Heritage» is understood here as a selection from a selection – a small subset of history that relates to a given group of people in a particular place, at a specific time (Dann and Seaton 2001:26). This can include presentations of case studies, yet also a critical re-analysis of the selection process, e.g. who was included – or even excluded (and why)? Who were the decision makers? How can the role of ethnomusicology be described here? Where are the (existent and possible) conflict points (politically, socially, legally, etc.)? What kinds of solution strategies are available to us? How is the issue of diversity – that has been so strongly emphasized in the UNESCO declarations – reflected in the approaches? How might diversity be represented in future approaches? How does the selection process affect musical canonization (and exclusion)? What is the role of archives in this process? - Cultural landscape and music As defined by the World Heritage Committee, cultural landscapes can be understood as a distinct geographical area representing the «combined work of nature and man» (http://whc.unesco.org/en/culturallandscape/). This sub-topic calls for a more detailed – and general – exploration of the exact relation between nature/landscape (and definition of such) and music/sound. How exactly is landscape interrelated with music – and identified (and vice versa)? How is this interrelation being applied and exploited in a (inter-)national context?

Survey on student motivation and approval of educational environment at Universidad Politécnica de Madrid within the European Higher Education area implementation

A recent study elaborated by Vicerrectorado de Ordenación Académica y Planificación Estratégica of Technical University of Madrid (UPM) defines the satisfaction of the university student body as "the response that the University offers to the expectations and demands of service of the students, considered in a general way ". Besides an indicator of academic and institutional insertion of the student, the assessment of student engagement allows us to adapt the academic offer and the extension services of the University to the real needs of the students. The process of convergence towards the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) raises the need to form in competitions, that is to say, of developing in our students capacities and knowledge beyond the purely theoretical-practical thing. Therefore, the perception and experience of the educational process and environment by the students is an important issue to be addressed to accomplish their expectations and achieve a curriculum accordingly to EHEA expectations. The present study aims to explore the student motivation and approval of the educational environment at the UPM. To this end a total of 97 students enrolled in the undergraduate program of Civil Engineering, Computer Engineering and Agronomic Engineering at UPM were surveyed. The survey consisted of 40 questions divided in three blocks. The first one of 20 questions of personal character in that they were gathering, besides the sex and the age, the degree of fulfilment, implication and dedication with the institution and the academic tasks. In the second block we identify 10 questions related to the perception of the student on the teaching quality, and finally a block of 10 questions regarding the Bologna Process. The students personal motivation was moderately high, with a score of 3.6 (all scores are provided on a 5-point scale), being the most valuable items obtaining a university degree (4,3) and the friendship between students (4,2). Any significant difference was shown between sexes (P=0.23) since the averages for this block of questions were of 3.7±0.3 and 3.5±0.4 for women and men respectively. The students are moderately satisfied with their graduate studies with an average score of 3,2, being the questions that reflect a minor satisfaction the research profile of the teachers (2,8) and the organization of the Schools (2,9). The best valued questions are related to the usefulness and quality of the degrees, with 3,5 and 3,4 respectively, and to the interest of the courses within the degree (3,4). For sexes, the results of this block of questions are similar (3.1±0.3 and 3.2±0.3 for men and women respectively=0.79). Also, there were no differences (P=0.39) between the students who arrange work and studies or do not work (3.1±0.2 and 3.2±0.3 respectively). In conclusion, students at UPM present an acceptable degree of motivation and satisfaction with regard to the studies and services that offer their respective Schools. Both characteristics receive the same value both for men and for women and so much for students who arrange work and studies as for those who devote themselves only to studying. In a significant way, students who are more engaged and are in-class attendants present the major degree of satisfaction.Overall, there is a great lack of information regarding the Bologna Process. In fact to the majority, they would like to know more on what it is, what it means and what changes will involve its implementation.

Differences brick facade design to horizontal loads between the Spanish and European standards

Brick facades are a construction type, strongly linked to local construction characteristics and methods. In Spain, particularly in Castilla, the facades have been built since the '80s with Castilian half foot (11.5 cm), resting on the edge of slabs. The design of these facades, to horizontal loads from wind, depending on the codes used, can lead to completely different valid solutions. Applying same loads, the facades studied with current European standard (Eurocode 6), have a maximum length of 7.1 m between supports, while the Spanish code, Technical Building Code - Structural Safety Masonry, (CTE SE-F), 8.4 m can be achieved. This represents an increase of flexural strength, depending on the calculation model used, which can reach until 8 times. This is due to the difference of the calculation method and the structural model in one and another standard, depending on if this facade is analyzed as a vertical or horizontal beam or by formation of a vertical or horizontal archh. This paper analyzes the constructive solution of the brick facades that results from applying Spanish or European standards and how it affects the model applied in the safety of the resulting facade.

An ethnopharmacological and historical analysis of “Dictamnus”, a European traditional herbal medicine

Ethnopharmacological relevance and background: “Dictamnus” was a popular name for a group of medicinal herbaceous plant species of the Rutaceae and Lamiaceae, which since the 4th century have been used for gynaecological problems and other illnesses BCE and still appear in numerous ethnobotanical records. Aims: This research has as four overarching aims: Determining the historical evolution of medical preparations labelled “Dictamnus” and the different factors affecting this long-standing herbal tradition. Deciphering and differentiating those medicinal uses of “Dictamnus” which strictly correspond to Dictamnus (Rutaceae), from those of Origanum dictamnus and other Lamiaceae species. Quantitatively assessing the dependence from herbal books, and pharmaceutical tradition, of modern Dictamnus ethnobotanical records. Determining whether differences between Western and Eastern Europe exist with regards to the Dictamnus albus uses in ethnopharmacology and ethnomedicine. Methods: An exhaustive review of herbals, classical pharmacopoeias, ethnobotanical and ethnopharmacological literature was conducted. Systematic analysis of uses reported which were standardized according to International Classification of Diseases – 10 and multivariate analysis using factorial, hierarchical and neighbour joining methods was undertaken. Results and discussion: The popular concept “Dictamnus” includes Origanum dictamnus L., Ballota pseudodictamnus (L.) Benth. and B. acetabulosa (L.) Benth. (Lamiaceae), as well as Dictamnus albus L. and D. hispanicus Webb ex Willk. (Rutaceae), with 86 different types of uses. Between 1000 and 1700 CE numerous complex preparations with “Dictamnus” were used in the treatment of 35 different pathologies. On biogeographical grounds the widespread D. albus is a far more likely prototypical “Dictamnus” than the Cretan endemic Origanum dictamnus. However both form integral parts of the “Dictamnus” complex. Evidence exists for a sufficiently long and coherent tradition for D. albus and D. hispanicus, use to treat 47 different categories of diseases. Conclusions: This approach is a model for understanding the cultural history of plants and their role as resources for health care. “Dictamnus” shows how transmission of traditional knowledge about materia medica, over 26 centuries, represents remarkable levels of development and innovation. All this lead us to call attention to D. albus and D. hispanicus which are highly promising as potential herbal drug leads. The next steps of research should be to systematically analyse phytochemical, pharmacological and clinical evidence and to develop safety, pharmacology and toxicology profiles of the traditional preparations.

Household debt and the European crisis. ECRI Research Report No. 13, June 2013

The fall in economic output all over Europe since 2008 has had important consequences for household liabilities. Major growth in demand and supply for household credit products has generated an increase in household debt, which contributed to growth rates during the pre-crisis period but – in some countries – became household-debt overhangs and helped inflate asset bubbles. In the run-up to the crisis, long-term economic lessons and theories were often overlooked and signs that the economic situation could worsen were ignored. Although not at the core of the crisis, household debt had important consequences for macroeconomic stability, robustness of growth and the depth of recessions. The last ten years in Europe have demonstrated the typical final stage of a household debt cycle: rapid increase and abrupt retrenchment. Widely varying outcomes across Europe enable us to consider the causes of the rapid growth in household debt and draw theoretical lessons that can help policy-makers and academics devise a coherent regulatory response to avoid extremes of the debt cycle in future.

Inflation persistence in Central and Eastern European countries. Bruegel Working Paper 2013/04, 22 July 2013

This paper studies inflation persistence with time-varying coefficient autoregressions for twelve central European countries,in comparison with the United States and the euro area. Inflation persistence tends to be higher in times of high inflation. Since the oil price shocks, inflation persistence has declined both in the US and euro-area. In most central and eastern European countries, for which our study covers 1993-2012, inflation persistence has also declined, with the main exceptions of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia, where persistence seems to be rather stable.