Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

THE IMPACT OF ARCHITECTURAL DESIGN ON SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT

Tässä työssä tutkitaan ohjelmistoarkkitehtuurisuunnitteluominaisuuksien vaikutusta erään client-server –arkkitehtuuriin perustuvan mobiilipalvelusovelluksen suunnittelu- ja toteutusaikaan. Kyseinen tutkimus perustuu reaalielämän projektiin, jonka kvalitatiivinen analyysi paljasti arkkitehtuurikompponenttien välisten kytkentöjen merkittävästi vaikuttavan projektin työmäärään. Työn päätavoite oli kvantitatiivisesti tutkia yllä mainitun havainnon oikeellisuus. Tavoitteen saavuttamiseksi suunniteltiin ohjelmistoarkkitehtuurisuunnittelun mittaristo kuvaamaan kyseisen järjestelmän alijärjestelmien arkkitehtuuria ja luotiin kaksi suunniteltua mittaristoa käyttävää, työmäärää (komponentin suunnittelu-, toteutus- ja testausaikojen summa) arvioivaa mallia, joista toinen on lineaarinen ja toinen epälineaarinen. Näiden mallien kertoimet sovitettiin optimoimalla niiden arvot epälineaarista gloobaalioptimointimenetelmää, differentiaalievoluutioalgoritmia, käyttäen, niin että mallien antamat arvot vastasivat parhaiten mitattua työmäärää sekä kaikilla ominaisuuksilla eli attribuuteilla että vain osalla niistä (yksi jätettiin vuorotellen pois). Kun arkkitehtuurikompenttien väliset kytkennät jätettiin malleista pois, mitattujen ja arvoitujen työmäärien välinen ero (ilmaistuna virheenä) kasvoi eräässä tapauksessa 367 % entisestä tarkoittaen sitä, että näin muodostettu malli vastasi toteutusaikoja huonosti annetulla ainestolla. Tämä oli suurin havaitu virhe kaikkien poisjätettyjen ominaisuuksien kesken. Saadun tuloksen perusteella päätettiin, että kyseisen järjestelmän toteutusajat ovat vahvasti riippuvaisia kytkentöjen määrästä, ja näin ollen kytkentöjen määrä oli mitä todennäköisemmin kaikista tärkein työmäärään vaikuttava tekijä tutkitun järjestelmän arkkitehtuurisuunnittelussa.

Investigation of business models of free zones and possible implications in South East Finland

Tutkielma tarkastelee vapaa alue konseptia osana yritysten kansainvälistä toimitusketjua. Tarkoituksena on löytää keinoja, millä tavoin vapaa alueen houkuttelevuutta voidaan lisätä yritysten näkökulmasta ja millaista liiketoimintaa yritysten on vapaa alueella mahdollista harjoittaa. Tutkielmassa etsitään tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat vapaa alueen menestykseen ja jotka voisivat olla sovellettavissa Kaakkois-Suomen ja Venäjän raja-alueelle ottaen huomioon vallitsevat olosuhteet ja lainsäädäntö rajoittavina tekijöinä. Menestystekijöitä ja liiketoimintamalleja haetaan tutkimalla ja analysoimalla lyhyesti muutamia olemassa olevia ja toimivia vapaa alueita. EU tullilain harmonisointi ja kansainvälisen kaupan vapautuminen vähentää vapaa alueen perinteistä merkitystä tullivapaana alueena. Sen sijaan vapaa alueet toimivat yhä enenevissä määrin logistisina keskuksina kansainvälisessä kaupassa ja tarjoavat palveluita, joiden avulla yritykset voivat parantaa logistista kilpailukykyään. Verkostoituminen, satelliitti-ratkaisut ja yhteistoiminta ovat keinoja, millä Kaakkois-Suomen alueen eri logistiikkapalvelujen tarjoajat voivat parantaa suorituskykyään ja joustavuutta kansainvälisessä toimitusketjussa.

Gaia photometry for white dwarfs

Context. White dwarfs can be used to study the structure and evolution of the Galaxy by analysing their luminosity function and initial mass function. Among them, the very cool white dwarfs provide the information for the early ages of each population. Because white dwarfs are intrinsically faint only the nearby (~ 20 pc) sample is reasonably complete. The Gaia space mission will drastically increase the sample of known white dwarfs through its 5-6 years survey of the whole sky up to magnitude V = 20-25. Aims. We provide a characterisation of Gaia photometry for white dwarfs to better prepare for the analysis of the scientific output of the mission. Transformations between some of the most common photometric systems and Gaia passbands are derived. We also give estimates of the number of white dwarfs of the different galactic populations that will be observed. Methods. Using synthetic spectral energy distributions and the most recent Gaia transmission curves, we computed colours of three different types of white dwarfs (pure hydrogen, pure helium, and mixed composition with H/He = 0.1). With these colours we derived transformations to other common photometric systems (Johnson-Cousins, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and 2MASS). We also present numbers of white dwarfs predicted to be observed by Gaia. Results. We provide relationships and colour-colour diagrams among different photometric systems to allow the prediction and/or study of the Gaia white dwarf colours. We also include estimates of the number of sources expected in every galactic population and with a maximum parallax error. Gaia will increase the sample of known white dwarfs tenfold to about 200 000. Gaia will be able to observe thousands of very cool white dwarfs for the first time, which will greatly improve our understanding of these stars and early phases of star formation in our Galaxy.

Free-running 4D whole-heart self-navigated golden angle MRI: Initial results.

PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that both coronary anatomy and ventricular function can be assessed simultaneously using a single four-dimensional (4D) acquisition. METHODS: A free-running 4D whole-heart self-navigated acquisition incorporating a golden angle radial trajectory was implemented and tested in vivo in nine healthy adult human subjects. Coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) datasets with retrospective selection of acquisition window width and position were extracted and quantitatively compared with baseline self-navigated electrocardiography (ECG) -triggered coronary MRA. From the 4D datasets, the left-ventricular end-systolic, end-diastolic volumes (ESV & EDV) and ejection fraction (EF) were computed and compared with values obtained from conventional 2D cine images. RESULTS: The 4D datasets enabled dynamic assessment of the whole heart with isotropic spatial resolution of 1.15 mm(3) . Coronary artery image quality was very similar to that of the ECG-triggered baseline scan despite some SNR penalty. A good agreement between 4D and 2D cine imaging was found for EDV, ESV, and EF. CONCLUSION: The hypothesis that both coronary anatomy and ventricular function can be assessed simultaneously in vivo has been tested positive. Retrospective and flexible acquisition window selection allows to best visualize each coronary segment at its individual time point of quiescence. Magn Reson Med, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Aortic blood pressure measured via EIT: investigation of different measurement settings.

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) allows the measurement of intra-thoracic impedance changes related to cardiovascular activity. As a safe and low-cost imaging modality, EIT is an appealing candidate for non-invasive and continuous haemodynamic monitoring. EIT has recently been shown to allow the assessment of aortic blood pressure via the estimation of the aortic pulse arrival time (PAT). However, finding the aortic signal within EIT image sequences is a challenging task: the signal has a small amplitude and is difficult to locate due to the small size of the aorta and the inherent low spatial resolution of EIT. In order to most reliably detect the aortic signal, our objective was to understand the effect of EIT measurement settings (electrode belt placement, reconstruction algorithm). This paper investigates the influence of three transversal belt placements and two commonly-used difference reconstruction algorithms (Gauss-Newton and GREIT) on the measurement of aortic signals in view of aortic blood pressure estimation via EIT. A magnetic resonance imaging based three-dimensional finite element model of the haemodynamic bio-impedance properties of the human thorax was created. Two simulation experiments were performed with the aim to (1) evaluate the timing error in aortic PAT estimation and (2) quantify the strength of the aortic signal in each pixel of the EIT image sequences. Both experiments reveal better performance for images reconstructed with Gauss-Newton (with a noise figure of 0.5 or above) and a belt placement at the height of the heart or higher. According to the noise-free scenarios simulated, the uncertainty in the analysis of the aortic EIT signal is expected to induce blood pressure errors of at least ± 1.4 mmHg.

A model for the evolution of reinforcement learning in fluctuating games

Many species are able to learn to associate behaviours with rewards as this gives fitness advantages in changing environments. Social interactions between population members may, however, require more cognitive abilities than simple trial-and-error learning, in particular the capacity to make accurate hypotheses about the material payoff consequences of alternative action combinations. It is unclear in this context whether natural selection necessarily favours individuals to use information about payoffs associated with nontried actions (hypothetical payoffs), as opposed to simple reinforcement of realized payoff. Here, we develop an evolutionary model in which individuals are genetically determined to use either trial-and-error learning or learning based on hypothetical reinforcements, and ask what is the evolutionarily stable learning rule under pairwise symmetric two-action stochastic repeated games played over the individual's lifetime. We analyse through stochastic approximation theory and simulations the learning dynamics on the behavioural timescale, and derive conditions where trial-and-error learning outcompetes hypothetical reinforcement learning on the evolutionary timescale. This occurs in particular under repeated cooperative interactions with the same partner. By contrast, we find that hypothetical reinforcement learners tend to be favoured under random interactions, but stable polymorphisms can also obtain where trial-and-error learners are maintained at a low frequency. We conclude that specific game structures can select for trial-and-error learning even in the absence of costs of cognition, which illustrates that cost-free increased cognition can be counterselected under social interactions.

Label-free detection of tobramycin in serum by transmission-localized surface plasmon resonance.

In order to improve the efficacy and safety of treatments, drug dosage needs to be adjusted to the actual needs of each patient in a truly personalized medicine approach. Key for widespread dosage adjustment is the availability of point-of-care devices able to measure plasma drug concentration in a simple, automated, and cost-effective fashion. In the present work, we introduce and test a portable, palm-sized transmission-localized surface plasmon resonance (T-LSPR) setup, comprised of off-the-shelf components and coupled with DNA-based aptamers specific to the antibiotic tobramycin (467 Da). The core of the T-LSPR setup are aptamer-functionalized gold nanoislands (NIs) deposited on a glass slide covered with fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO), which acts as a biosensor. The gold NIs exhibit localized plasmon resonance in the visible range matching the sensitivity of the complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) image sensor employed as a light detector. The combination of gold NIs on the FTO substrate, causing NIs size and pattern irregularity, might reduce the overall sensitivity but confers extremely high stability in high-ionic solutions, allowing it to withstand numerous regeneration cycles without sensing losses. With this rather simple T-LSPR setup, we show real-time label-free detection of tobramycin in buffer, measuring concentrations down to 0.5 μM. We determined an affinity constant of the aptamer-tobramycin pair consistent with the value obtained using a commercial propagating-wave based SPR. Moreover, our label-free system can detect tobramycin in filtered undiluted blood serum, measuring concentrations down to 10 μM with a theoretical detection limit of 3.4 μM. While the association signal of tobramycin onto the aptamer is masked by the serum injection, the quantification of the captured tobramycin is possible during the dissociation phase and leads to a linear calibration curve for the concentrations over the tested range (10-80 μM). The plasmon shift following surface binding is calculated in terms of both plasmon peak location and hue, with the latter allowing faster data elaboration and real-time display of the results. The presented T-LSPR system shows for the first time label-free direct detection and quantification of a small molecule in the complex matrix of filtered undiluted blood serum. Its uncomplicated construction and compact size, together with the remarkable performances, represent a leap forward toward effective point-of-care devices for therapeutic drug concentration monitoring.

The Role of Trade in the Structural Transformations of South Korea and the United Kingdom

[cat] El comerç internacional en béns agrícoles té el potencial d'accelerar la transformació estructural dels països amb baixa productivitat agrícola perquè els dóna la possiblitat d'importar aliments. L'objectiu d'aquest article és estudiar l'importància del comerç internacional en aquest context a través dels exemples de Corea del Sud i el Regne Unit. Per fer l'anàlisi, introdueixo comerç internacional en un model de creixement neoclàssicc amb dos sectors, agricultura i no-agricultura. Una característica clau del model és la baixa elasticitat-ingrés del bé agrícola.

The Role of Trade in the Structural Transformations of South Korea and the United Kingdom

[cat] El comerç internacional en béns agrícoles té el potencial d'accelerar la transformació estructural dels països amb baixa productivitat agrícola perquè els dóna la possiblitat d'importar aliments. L'objectiu d'aquest article és estudiar l'importància del comerç internacional en aquest context a través dels exemples de Corea del Sud i el Regne Unit. Per fer l'anàlisi, introdueixo comerç internacional en un model de creixement neoclàssicc amb dos sectors, agricultura i no-agricultura. Una característica clau del model és la baixa elasticitat-ingrés del bé agrícola.

Fmoc-2-Mercaptobenzothiazole (MBT), for the Introduction of the Fmoc Moiety Free of Side-Reactions

A double side-reaction, consisting in the formation of Fmoc--Ala-OH and Fmoc--Ala-AA-OH, during the preparation of Fmoc protected amino acids (Fmoc-AA-OH) with Fmoc-OSu is discussed. Furthermore, the new Fmoc-2-MBT reagent is proposed for avoiding these side-reactions as well as the formation of the Fmoc-dipeptides (Fmoc-AA-AA-OH) and even tripeptides, which is another important side-reaction when chloroformates such as Fmoc-Cl is used for the protection of the -amino function of the amino acids.