Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

The role of geography and ecology in shaping repeated patterns of morphological and genetic differentiation between European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) from the Pyrenees and the Alps

Neutral and selective processes c an drive repeated patterns of evolu tion in dif ferent groups of populationsexp eriencing similar ecol ogica l gradients. In this paper, we used a combinat ion of nucl ear and mitochondrialDNA markers, as well as geometric morphometrics, to investigate repeated patterns of morphological andgenetic divergence of E uropean minnows in two mountain ranges : the Pyrenees and the Al ps. Europeanminnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) are cyprinid fish i nha bitin g most freshwater bodies in Europe, including those indifferent mountain r anges that could act as major geographical barriers to gene flow. We explored patterns ofP. phoxinus phenotypic and genetic di versi fication along a gradi ent of alti tude common to the two mountainranges, and tested for isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by environment (IBE) and isolation by adaptation(IBA). The results indicated that populations from the Pyr enees a nd the Alps bel ong to two well differentiated,reciprocally monophyletic mt DNA lineages. Substantial genetic differentiation due to geographical isolationwithin and between populations from the Pyrenees and the Alps was also found using rapidly evolving AFLPsmarkers (isolation by distance or IBD), as well as morphological differences between mountain ranges. Als o,morphology varied strong ly with elevation and so did genetic differentiation to a lower extent. Despitemoderate evidence for IBE and IBA, and therefore of repeated evolution, substantial population heterogeneitywas found at the genetic level, suggesting that selection and population specific genetic drift act in concert toaffect genetic divergence.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Life-time growth patterns of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus introduced to Europe, relative to North American populations

The pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus, an omnivorous, nest guarding North American sunfish, was introduced into European waters about 100 years ago. To assess growth performance following introduction, we reviewed the available data for North American and European populations of pumpkinseed and compared the back-calculated age-specific growth for juveniles (standard length, SL, at age two) and adults (age two to five increment) as well as adult body size (SL at age five), von Bertalanffy growth model parameters and the index of growth (in length) performance (φ′). For continental comparisons of growth trajectory, mean growth curves for North American and Europe were calculated with the von Bertalanffy model using pooled data sets for each continent. Juvenile growth rate did not differ between European and North American pumpkinseed, but mean adult body size and adult growth rate were both significantly greater in North American than European populations. Adult body size decreased with increasing latitude (ANOVA) in North American populations, but this was not observed with adult growth rate. In contrast, adult body size tended to increase with latitude in European populations. Adult body size correlated significantly with φ′. The von Bertalanffy model described the overall growth patterns of North American and European populations reasonably well, but on the individual population level, length asymptotes were unrealistic (estimates that were > 20 % of the mean back-calculated size for the oldest age class) for a third of European populations and 80% of the North American populations. In contrast to North American pumpkinseed populations, somatic growth in European populations appears to be compromised by limited, but adequate, food resources, probably due to strong intraspecific interactions. This appears to be especially acute in adults, having potential ramifications for life span and reproductive allocation

Differences in seasonal price patterns among second home rentals and hotels: Empirical evidence and practical implications

Hotels and second home rentals are two of the most important tourist accommodation options in Spain. In terms of seasonality, almost all previous studies have analysed tourism demand from the point of view either of total arrivals or the number of tourists lodged in a single accommodation type (hotels, rural accommodation, etc). However, there are no studies focusing on price seasonality orcomparing seasonality among different accommodation types. By using seasonality indicators and a price index constructed by means of hedonic methods, this paper aims to shed some light on seasonal pricing patterns among second home rentals and hotels. The paper relies on a 2004 database of 144 hotels and 1,002 apartments on the Costa Brava (northeast Spain). The results show that prices for second home rentals display a smoother seasonal pattern than hotels due to reduced price differences between shoulder (May and October) and peak periods (August)

Fluctuation-Driven Neural Dynamics Reproduce Drosophila Locomotor Patterns.

The neural mechanisms determining the timing of even simple actions, such as when to walk or rest, are largely mysterious. One intriguing, but untested, hypothesis posits a role for ongoing activity fluctuations in neurons of central action selection circuits that drive animal behavior from moment to moment. To examine how fluctuating activity can contribute to action timing, we paired high-resolution measurements of freely walking Drosophila melanogaster with data-driven neural network modeling and dynamical systems analysis. We generated fluctuation-driven network models whose outputs-locomotor bouts-matched those measured from sensory-deprived Drosophila. From these models, we identified those that could also reproduce a second, unrelated dataset: the complex time-course of odor-evoked walking for genetically diverse Drosophila strains. Dynamical models that best reproduced both Drosophila basal and odor-evoked locomotor patterns exhibited specific characteristics. First, ongoing fluctuations were required. In a stochastic resonance-like manner, these fluctuations allowed neural activity to escape stable equilibria and to exceed a threshold for locomotion. Second, odor-induced shifts of equilibria in these models caused a depression in locomotor frequency following olfactory stimulation. Our models predict that activity fluctuations in action selection circuits cause behavioral output to more closely match sensory drive and may therefore enhance navigation in complex sensory environments. Together these data reveal how simple neural dynamics, when coupled with activity fluctuations, can give rise to complex patterns of animal behavior.

New insight in the relationship between regional patterns of knee cartilage thickness, osteoarthritis disease severity, and gait mechanics.

To test if the relationship between knee kinetics during walking and regional patterns of cartilage thickness is influenced by disease severity we tested the following hypotheses in a cross-sectional study of medial compartment osteoarthritis (OA) subjects: (1) the peak knee flexion (KFM) and adduction moments (KAM) during walking are associated with regional cartilage thickness and medial-to-lateral cartilage thickness ratios, and (2) the associations between knee moments and cartilage thickness data are dependent on disease severity. Seventy individuals with medial compartment knee OA were studied. Gait analysis was used to determine the knee moments and cartilage thickness was measured from magnetic resonance imaging. Multiple linear regression analyses tested for associations between cartilage thickness and knee kinetics. Medial cartilage thickness and medial-to-lateral cartilage thickness ratios were lower in subjects with greater KAM for specific regions of the femoral condyle and tibial plateau with no associations for KFM in patients of all disease severities. When separated by severity, the association between KAM and cartilage thickness was found only in patients with more severe OA, and KFM was significantly associated with cartilage thickness only for the less severe OA subjects for specific tibial plateau regions. The results support the idea that the KAM is larger in patients with more severe disease and the KFM has greater influence early in the disease process, which may lessen as pain increases with disease severity. Each component influences different regions of cartilage. Thus the relative contributions of both KAM and KFM should be considered when evaluating gait mechanics and the influence of any intervention for knee OA.

Patterns of variability of retinol levels in a harbour porpoise population from an unpolluted environment

Organochlorine compounds (OC) are known to induce vitamin A (retinoids) deficiency in mammals, which may be associated with impairment of immunocompetence, reproduction and growth. This makes retinoids a potentially useful biomarker of organochlorine impact on marine mammals. However, use of retinoids as a biomarker requires knowledge about its intrapopulation patterns of variation in natural conditions, information which is not currently available. We investigated these patterns in a cetacean population living in an unpolluted environment. 100 harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena from West Greenland were sampled during the 1995 hunting season. Sex, age, morphometrics, nutritive condition, and retinol (following saponification) and OC levels in blubber were determined for each individual. OC levels found were extremely low and therefore considered unlikely to affect the population adversely: mean blubber concentrations, expressed on an extractable basis, were 2.04 (SD = 1.1) ppm for PCBs and 2.76 (SD = 1.66) ppm for tDDT. The mean blubber retinol concentration for the overall population was 59.66 (SD = 45.26) mu g g(-1). Taking into account the high contribution of blubber to body mass, blubber constitutes a significant body site for retinoid deposition in harbour porpoises. Retinol concentrations did not differ significantly between geographical regions or sexes, but they did correlate significantly (p <0.001) with age. Body condition, measured by determining the lipid content of the blubber, did not have a significant effect on retinol levels but the individuals examined were considered to be in an overall good nutritive condition. It is concluded that measurement of retinol concentrations in blubber samples is feasible and has a potential for use as a biomarker of organochlorine exposure in cetaceans. However, in order to do so, biological information, particularly age, is critical for the correct assessment of physiological impact

Patterns of care in recurrent glioblastoma in Switzerland: a multicentre national approach based on diagnostic nodes.

Despite moderate improvements in outcome of glioblastoma after first-line treatment with chemoradiation recent clinical trials failed to improve the prognosis of recurrent glioblastoma. In the absence of a standard of care we aimed to investigate institutional treatment strategies to identify similarities and differences in the pattern of care for recurrent glioblastoma. We investigated re-treatment criteria and therapeutic pathways for recurrent glioblastoma of eight neuro-oncology centres in Switzerland having an established multidisciplinary tumour-board conference. Decision algorithms, differences and consensus were analysed using the objective consensus methodology. A total of 16 different treatment recommendations were identified based on combinations of eight different decision criteria. The set of criteria implemented as well as the set of treatments offered was different in each centre. For specific situations, up to 6 different treatment recommendations were provided by the eight centres. The only wide-range consensus identified was to offer best supportive care to unfit patients. A majority recommendation was identified for non-operable large early recurrence with unmethylated MGMT promoter status in the fit patients: here bevacizumab was offered. In fit patients with late recurrent non-operable MGMT promoter methylated glioblastoma temozolomide was recommended by most. No other majority recommendations were present. In the absence of strong evidence we identified few consensus recommendations in the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma. This contrasts the limited availability of single drugs and treatment modalities. Clinical situations of greatest heterogeneity may be suitable to be addressed in clinical trials and second opinion referrals are likely to yield diverging recommendations.

How to describe species richness patterns for bryophyte conservation?

A large amount of data for inconspicuous taxa is stored in natural history collections; however, this information is often neglected for biodiversity patterns studies. Here, we evaluate the performance of direct interpolation of museum collections data, equivalent to the traditional approach used in bryophyte conservation planning, and stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) to produce reliable reconstructions of species richness patterns, given that differences between these methods have been insufficiently evaluated for inconspicuous taxa. Our objective was to contrast if species distribution models produce better inferences of diversity richness than simply selecting areas with the higher species numbers. As model species, we selected Iberian species of the genus Grimmia (Bryophyta), and we used four well-collected areas to compare and validate the following models: 1) four Maxent richness models, each generated without the data from one of the four areas, and a reference model created using all of the data and 2) four richness models obtained through direct spatial interpolation, each generated without the data from one area, and a reference model created with all of the data. The correlations between the partial and reference Maxent models were higher in all cases (0.45 to 0.99), whereas the correlations between the spatial interpolation models were negative and weak (-0.3 to -0.06). Our results demonstrate for the first time that S-SDMs offer a useful tool for identifying detailed richness patterns for inconspicuous taxa such as bryophytes and improving incomplete distributions by assessing the potential richness of under-surveyed areas, filling major gaps in the available data. In addition, the proposed strategy would enhance the value of the vast number of specimens housed in biological collections.