Global non-dynamic refinement of radial orbit error for altimetric earth satellites

The accuracy of altimetrically derived oceanographic and geophysical information is limited by the precision of the radial component of the satellite ephemeris. A non-dynamic technique is proposed as a method of reducing the global radial orbit error of altimetric satellites. This involves the recovery of each coefficient of an analytically derived radial error correction through a refinement of crossover difference residuals. The crossover data is supplemented by absolute height measurements to permit the retrieval of otherwise unobservable geographically correlated and linearly combined parameters. The feasibility of the radial reduction procedure is established upon application to the three day repeat orbit of SEASAT. The concept of arc aggregates is devised as a means of extending the method to incorporate longer durations, such as the 35 day repeat period of ERS-1. A continuous orbit is effectively created by including the radial misclosure between consecutive long arcs as an infallible observation. The arc aggregate procedure is validated using a combination of three successive SEASAT ephemerides. A complete simulation of the 501 revolution per 35 day repeat orbit of ERS-1 is derived and the recovery of the global radial orbit error over the full repeat period is successfully accomplished. The radial reduction is dependent upon the geographical locations of the supplementary direct height data. Investigations into the respective influences of various sites proposed for the tracking of ERS-1 by ground-based transponders are carried out. The potential effectiveness on the radial orbital accuracy of locating future tracking sites in regions of high latitudinal magnitude is demonstrated.

Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Medication error in mental health:implications for primary care

Medication errors are associated with significant morbidity and people with mental health problems may be particularly susceptible to medication errors due to various factors. Primary care has a key role in improving medication safety in this vulnerable population. The complexity of services, involving primary and secondary care and social services, and potential training issues may increase error rates, with physical medicines representing a particular risk. Service users may be cognitively impaired and fail to identify an error placing additional responsibilities on clinicians. The potential role of carers in error prevention and medication safety requires further elaboration. A potential lack of trust between service users and clinicians may impair honest communication about medication issues leading to errors. There is a need for detailed research within this field.

Time resolved bit error rate analysis of a fast switching tunable laser for use in optically switched networks

We investigate the use of different direct detection modulation formats in a wavelength switched optical network. We find the minimum time it takes a tunable sampled grating distributed Bragg reflector laser to recover after switching from one wavelength channel to another for different modulation formats. The recovery time is investigated utilizing a field programmable gate array which operates as a time resolved bit error rate detector. The detector offers 93 ps resolution operating at 10.7 Gb/s and allows for all the data received to contribute to the measurement, allowing low bit error rates to be measured at high speed. The recovery times for 10.7 Gb/s non-return-to-zero on–off keyed modulation, 10.7 Gb/s differentially phase shift keyed signal and 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed formats can be as low as 4 ns, 7 ns and 40 ns, respectively. The time resolved phase noise associated with laser settling is simultaneously measured for 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed data and it shows that the phase noise coupled with frequency error is the primary limitation on transmitting immediately after a laser switching event.

Bit error rate improvement by nonlinear optical decision element

We present a novel approach to the improvement of the bit error rate (BER) in optical communications. We propose a design of advanced optical receiver enhanced by a nonlinear all-optical decision element. As a particular example, we demonstrate a substantial improvement in the BER over the conventional receiver for operation at 40?Gbits/s.

Opportunity, fair process and relationship value:career development as a driver of proactive work behaviour

In line with recent findings from organisational justice theory, we hypothesised that employee proactive behaviour and careerist orientation is predicted by the interplay of perceived favourability of career development opportunities, the perceived fairness of the procedures used to decide them, and employee organisational commitment. Employees (N = 325) of a large financial services organisation responded to a self-completion questionnaire. As predicted, when career development opportunities were viewed unfavourably, perceived procedural justice was significantly and positively related to individual proactive behaviour and significantly and negatively related to careerist orientation but only when organisational commitment was high. It appears that high procedural justice may only 'offset' the negative effects of unfavourable career development opportunities when employees identify with, and are committed to, their organisation. Further support is presented for a relational, rather than instrumental, model of procedural justice when reflecting on employee reactions to their employers' policies and decision-making. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Bit-error rate performance of 20 Gbit/s WDM RZ-DPSK non-slope matched submarine transmission systems

Applying direct error counting, we assess the performance of 20 Gbit/s wavelength-division multiplexing return-to-zero differential phase-shift keying (RZ-DPSK) transmission at 0.4 bit/(s Hz) spectral efficiency for application on installed non-zero dispersion-shifted fibre based transoceanic submarine systems. The impact of the pulse duty cycle on the system performance is investigated and the reliability of the existing theoretical approaches to the BER estimation for the RZ-DPSK format is discussed.

Belief revision and small loops in Gallager-type error-correcting codes

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Charismatic leadership as a driver of sales-marketing collaboration

The purpose of this study is to develop an integrative framework for investigating the organizational consequences of marketing leadership. The new integrative framework employs the theories of charismatic leadership and organizational identification as foundation. Combining constructs and propositions from these two theories, and informed by initial insights from in-depth interview research, our proposed framework offers an holistic model to explore and explain how marketing leadership behaviours influence (1) relations between marketing and sales groups, and (2) consequent firm performance. The paper develops propositions and offers future research directions.

Bit error rate improvement by nonlinear optical decision element

We present a novel approach to the improvement of the bit error rate (BER) in optical communications. We propose a design of advanced optical receiver enhanced by a nonlinear all-optical decision element. As a particular example, we demonstrate a substantial improvement in the BER over the conventional receiver for operation at 40 Gbits/s. © 2006 Optical Society of America.

Bit-error probability for direct detection of optical RZ signal degraded by ASE noise and timing jitter

We analyze theoretically the interplay between optical return-to-zero signal degradation due to timing jitter and additive amplified-spontaneous-emission noise. The impact of these two factors on the performance of a square-law direct detection receiver is also investigated. We derive an analytical expression for the bit-error probability and quantitatively determine the conditions when the contributions of the effects of timing jitter and additive noise to the bit error rate can be treated separately. The analysis of patterning effects is also presented. © 2007 IEEE.

Non-Gaussian error probability in optical soliton transmission

We find the probability distribution of the fluctuating parameters of a soliton propagating through a medium with additive noise. Our method is a modification of the instanton formalism (method of optimal fluctuation) based on a saddle-point approximation in the path integral. We first solve consistently a fundamental problem of soliton propagation within the framework of noisy nonlinear Schrödinger equation. We then consider model modifications due to in-line (filtering, amplitude and phase modulation) control. It is examined how control elements change the error probability in optical soliton transmission. Even though a weak noise is considered, we are interested here in probabilities of error-causing large fluctuations which are beyond perturbation theory. We describe in detail a new phenomenon of soliton collapse that occurs under the combined action of noise, filtering and amplitude modulation. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.