Guia temàtica Biblioteca ETSAB: Dret a l'habitatge

Postprint (author’s final draft)

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Anàlisi de les imminents reformes processals i la seva aplicació a Catalunya. Problemàtica pròpia i riscos detectats. Propostes de millora. Cap a un nou model de justícia

Per diferents motius, l'acció de la justícia es troba permanentment d'actualitat. Una de les causes és la contínua novetat que prové de les propostes de modernització en els diversos àmbits, que tracten de pal·liar els dèficits amb els quals s'enfronta cada dia l'acció judicial. El debat és ja antic i permanent, sent que, simultàniament un ventall de projectes ha aparegut amb la intenció de dur a terme un canvi profund i determinant en la visió de l'estructura del Poder Judicial i dels serveis associats. En particular, la proposta de reforma de Llei Orgànica del Poder Judicial i de Demarcació i Planta, suposa la concentració de tots els jutjats a les capitals de província, amb el risc d'allunyament enfront dels ciutadans i problemes associats. L'esborrany de Codi Processal Penal aposta per un nou sistema de recerca a càrrec del Ministeri Fiscal, amb curts terminis taxats per a la finalització del procediment, promoció de la mediació i augment de les possibilitats de no continuació de la causa, a més una concentració i simplificació de totes les fases del procediment penal. D'altra banda, el Registre Civil ha estat retirat dels jutjats però, malgrat el transcurs del temps, no s'és capaç d'identificar a quin col·lectiu li correspondrà aquesta funció, amb la conseqüent generació d'una important inquietud social. Aquestes i altres novetats seran analitzades en profunditat, amb especial perspectiva des de l'àmbit de Catalunya, tractant d'aportar solucions i propostes de millora.

La reforma fiscal 2014 y la opinión de los asesores fiscales

La reforma fiscal en España ha sido una demanda recurrente en los últimos tiempos, posiblemente reforzada por la crisis económica. Esta fue aprobada a finales de 2014, entrando en vigor en 2015 y 2016. No se trata de una reforma global, habiéndose centrado en el IRPF y en el impuesto sobre sociedades. Este artículo repasa sus, a nuestro entender, aspectos más relevantes y, de manera novedosa, para identificar sus disfunciones, los contrasta con la opinión de los asesores fiscales, actores clave en nuestro sistema fiscal, dado el alcance mayoritario del mecanismo de autoliquidación. En general, se puede concluir que los trade-offs resueltos en esta reforma van en la dirección de elimi­nar, cuanto menos parcialmente, disfunciones previas, aunque, como se ha sugerido, hay aspectos todavía sin tratar (IVA o imposición sobre la riqueza).

Implementação de um método robusto para o controle fiscal de umidade em queijo minas artesanal. Abordagem metrológica multivariada

This study developed and validated a method for moisture determination in artisanal Minas cheese, using near-infrared spectroscopy and partial-least-squares. The model robustness was assured by broad sample diversity, real conditions of routine analysis, variable selection, outlier detection and analytical validation. The model was built from 28.5-55.5% w/w, with a root-mean-square-error-of-prediction of 1.6%. After its adoption, the method stability was confirmed over a period of two years through the development of a control chart. Besides this specific method, the present study sought to provide an example multivariate metrological methodology with potential for application in several areas, including new aspects, such as more stringent evaluation of the linearity of multivariate methods.

Inter-jurisdictional fiscal competition: a review of the literature and policy recommendations

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal competition. We consider tax and expenditure competition in a more general set up where different jurisdictions within a federation may compete in the provision of public goods in order to attract some residents (Tiebout, 1956) and expel others (Brueckner, 1999); and/or for business. We address the vast literature on welfare gains or losses of these types of competition. Then, we discuss the empirical evidence, focusing on estimates of the sensitiveness of production factors to tax differentials and on the importance of the strategic interdependence among jurisdictions. We combine econometric studies with some case studies. Last we discuss the design of mechanisms to cope with fiscal competition, especially under a more global environment where factors become more mobile.

Independência do banco central e equilíbrio fiscal: algumas observações para o caso brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to analyze the main theoretical arguments for the analysis of the conduction of monetary policy on the fiscal side. Besides this, an analysis is made of the possible effects on the fiscal balance from the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability after the Real Plan and due to an increase in the central bank independence (CBI) in the Brazilian case. The findings denote that the strategy for the conduction of the adopted monetary policy and the increase in the degree of CBI did not contribute to an imrovement in the fiscal balance.

O efeito da liberalização da conta de capital sobre a política fiscal: uma avaliação do caso brasileiro recente

In recent years there has been some agreement that capital account liberalization have provided restriction on economic policies. This paper provides some evidence for Brazil. I find evidence that capital account liberalization provided limits to fiscal policy in Brazil and its effects can depend on exchange rate policy.

O comportamento da renúncia fiscal oriunda dos gastos privados com atenção à saúde entre os anos 1996 e 2003

This article presents an economic approach trying to get the interrelations between the private expenditures on health care and the tax expenditures. It shows an overview of the family's expenses on health care confronted to the total of the same item declared to Secretaria da Receita Federal (Income Tax) that was converted into tax expenditures.

Fiscal reform and federal relations: Brazilian deadlocks

Brazilian fiscal reform got to deadlocks because proposals tried to avoid considering federal relations. There are two main types of federal relations: the competitive and the cooperative. In both types is possible to observe coordination mechanisms. Brazilian federalism is a mixture of both types what leads to difficulties finding solutions. We argue that is more important to find mechanisms to facilitate cooperation than to discuss the qualities of any alternative fiscal structure. Fiscal reforms brings along a great deal of uncertainty. So it is important to discuss the reform timing and the compensation mechanisms before hand.

Ajuste fiscal no Brasil: algumas considerações de caráter pós-keynesian

Fiscal adjustment in Brazil: Some considerations under a post Keynesian approach. The article analyses the main issues concerned to fiscal policy in Brazil. For doing so, it assumes a Post Keynesian approach on this issue. First, it observes the origins of the Brazilian fiscal crises, showing that the Brazilian external debt had a fundamental role to play in its configuration. After, it analyses the present conduction of the fiscal policy in Brazil, emphasizing the orthodox framework that support it. Finally, the Post Keynesian approach on fiscal policy and the role of the State, as an element essential to reach a greater economic stability is discussed, showing that there are several experiences that seems to have a Keynesian bias, but that has little relation to Keynes approach, as is the case of Brazil.

Política fiscal anticíclica, crise financeira internacional e crescimento econômico no Brasil

This study analyzes the long run equilibrium relationship and causality between economic growth and public expenditure in Brazil covering the period 1980-2008. The empirical results of the Granger causality test in a multivariate framework have shown up the importance of public investments not only to face the adverse effects of the international financial crisis, but also in stimulating the economic growth. Also, the results indicate the need of controlling the growing path of other current expenditure, social security and public debt.