Estimation of unemployment rates in small areas of Portugal: a best linear unbiased prediction approach versus a hierarchical Bayes approach

The high level of unemployment is one of the major problems in most European countries nowadays. Hence, the demand for small area labor market statistics has rapidly increased over the past few years. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the Portuguese Statistical Office is the main source of official statistics on the labour market at the macro level (e.g. NUTS2 and national level). However, the LFS was not designed to produce reliable statistics at the micro level (e.g. NUTS3, municipalities or further disaggregate level) due to small sample sizes. Consequently, traditional design-based estimators are not appropriate. A solution to this problem is to consider model-based estimators that "borrow information" from related areas or past samples by using auxiliary information. This paper reviews, under the model-based approach, Best Linear Unbiased Predictors and an estimator based on the posterior predictive distribution of a Hierarchical Bayesian model. The goal of this paper is to analyze the possibility to produce accurate unemployment rate statistics at micro level from the Portuguese LFS using these kinds of stimators. This paper discusses the advantages of using each approach and the viability of its implementation.

Effects of environmental conditions on planktonic abundances, benthic recruitment and growth rates of the bivalve mollusc Ruditapes decussatus in a Portuguese coastal lagoon

Controlling environmental parameters for the early stages of marine invertebrates have received little attention, particularly in field studies. This study involves measurement of abundances and growth rates of the bivalve Ruditapes decussatus Linnaeus 1758 during its planktonic larval and early benthic life stages in a coastal lagoon: Ria Formosa, Portugal. Measured abundances were compared with tidal amplitude, water temperature, salinity, wind velocity and direction, and a food availability indicator 2chlorophyll a). Data were obtained on abundance and prodissoconch length of the larvae, measured two tothreetimes perweek,and ofpost-larval stagesindividuals thathadsettled inartificial collectors over10months.Larval and juvenile cohorts were identified using size-frequency distributions and larval ages estimated by larval shell growth lines.

Editorial: Cellulose dissolution and regeneration: systems and interactions

The interest in cellulose dissolution and regeneration is old but this topic has recently attracted strongly renewed attention. This is reflected in both applications- earlier and novel- and scientific controversies. This special issue attempts to connect a renewed fundamental understanding of molecular aspects with practical systems for dissolution and regeneration.

Trophic Level Asynchrony in Rates of Phenological Change For Marine, Freshwater and Terrestrial Environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardised approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardised assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large-scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services

Production of laminar extrudates containing particles of a model drug processed by supercritical fluids

Tese de doutoramento, Farmácia (Tecnologia Farmacêutica), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Farmácia, 2015

Comparing growth rates of natural phytoplankton communities to laboratory culturing experiments

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Investigating the rates and impacts of near misses and related incidents among UK cyclists

The paper investigates the occurrence of non-injury incidents among cyclists in the UK, seeking to (i) generate a rate that can be compared with injury rates, (ii) analyse factors affecting incident rates, and (iii) analyse factors affecting the impact of incidents on cyclists. We collected data on non-injury cycling ‘incidents’ (near misses and other frightening and/or annoying incidents) from 1692 online diaries of cycle trip stages1 and incidents, participants having signed up in advance for a specific day. Following data cleaning and coding, a dataset was created covering 1532 diary days and 3994 records of incidents occurring within the UK. Incident rates were calculated and compared to injury risks for cyclists. Cross-tabulation and regression were used to identify factors affecting incident rates and the effect an incident has on the cyclist. Frightening or annoying non-injury incidents, unlike slight injuries, are an everyday experience for most people cycling in the UK. For regular cyclists ‘very scary’ incidents (rated as 3 on a 0–3 scale) are on average a weekly experience, with deliberate aggression experienced monthly. Per mile, non-injury incidents were more frequent for people making shorter and slower trips. People aged over 55 were at lower risk, as were those cycling at the weekend and outside the morning peak. Incidents that involved motor vehicles, especially those involving larger vehicles, were more frightening than those that did not. Near miss and other non-injury incidents are widespread in the UK and may have a substantial impact on cycling experience and uptake. Policy and research should initially target the most frightening types of incident, such as very close passes and incidents involving large vehicles. Further attention needs to be paid to the experiences of groups under-represented among cyclists, such as women making shorter trips.

Electrospun medicated shellac nanofibers for colon-targeted drug delivery

Medicated shellac nanofibers providing colon-specific sustained release were fabricated using coaxial electrospinning. A solution of 7.5 g shellac and 1.5 g of ferulic acid (FA) in 10 mL ethanol was used as the core fluid, and a mixture of ethanol and N,N-dimethylformamide (8/10 v/v) as the shell. The presence of the shell fluid was required to prevent frequent clogging of the spinneret. The diameters of the fibers (D) can be manipulated by varying the ratio of shell to core flow rates (F), according to the equation D = 0.52F−0.19. Scanning electron microscopy images revealed that fibers prepared with F values of 0.1 and 0.25 had linear morphologies with smooth surfaces, but when the shell fluid flow rate was increased to 0.5 the fiber integrity was compromised. FA was found to be amorphously distributed in the fibers on the basis of X-ray diffraction and differential scanning calorimetry results. This can be attributed to good compatibility between the drug and carrier: IR spectra indicated the presence of hydrogen bonds between the two. In vitro dissolution tests demonstrated that there was minimal FA release at pH 2.0, and sustained release in a neutral dissolution medium. The latter occurred through an erosion mechanism. During the dissolution processes, the shellac fibers were gradually converted into nanoparticles as the FA was freed into solution, and ultimately completely dissolved.

Síntese sol-gel de biomateriais à base de água de fontes hidrotermais para otimização do comportamento celular e regeneração dos tecidos ósseos

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Biomédicas, 18 de Março de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

Radiation dose rates and exposure associated to Technologically Enhanced Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (TENORM) at locations of a Portuguese coal-fired power plant

Coal contains trace quantities of natural radionuclides such as Th-232, U-235, U-238, as well as their radioactive decay products and 40K. These radionuclides can be released as fly ash in atmospheric emissions from coal-fired power plants, dispersed into the environment and deposited on the surrounding top soils. Therefore, the natural radiation background level is enhanced and consequently increase the total dose for the nearby population. A radiation monitoring programme was used to assess the external dose contribution to the natural radiation background, potentially resulting from the dispersion of coal ash in past atmospheric emissions. Radiation measurements were carried out by gamma spectrometry in the vicinity of a Portuguese coal-fired power plant. The radiation monitoring was achieved both on and off site, being the boundary delimited by a 20 km circle centered in the stacks of the coal plant. The measured radionuclides concentrations for the uranium and thorium series ranged from 7.7 to 41.3 Bq/kg for Ra-226 and from 4.7 to 71.6 Bq/kg for Th-232, while K-40 concentrations ranged from 62.3 to 795.1 Bq/kg. The highest values were registered near the power plant and at distances between 6 and 20 km from the stacks, mainly in the prevailing wind direction. The absorbed dose rates were calculated for each sampling location: 13.97-84.00 ηGy/h, while measurements from previous studies carried out in 1993 registered values in the range of 16.6-77.6 ηGy/h. The highest values were registered at locations in the prevailing wind direction (NW-SE). This study has been primarily done to assess the radiation dose rates and exposure to the nearby population in the surroundings of a coal-fired power plant. The results suggest an enhancement or at least an influence in the background radiation due to the coal plant past activities.

Radioactivity levels of 238U and 232Th decay series and related dose rates in the surroundings of a coal power plant using high resolution g-spectrometry

Gamma radiations measurements were carried out in the vicinity of a coal-fired power plant located in the southwest coastline of Portugal. Two different gamma detectors were used to assess the environmental radiation within a circular area of 20 km centred in the coal plant: a scintillometer (SPP2 NF, Saphymo) and a high purity germanium detector (HPGe, Canberra). Fifty urban and suburban measurements locations were established within the defined area and two measurements campaigns were carried out. The results of the total gamma radiation ranged from 20.83 to 98.33 counts per second (c.p.s.) for both measurement campaigns and outdoor doses rates ranged from 77.65 to 366.51 Gy/h. Natural emitting nuclides from the U-238 and Th-232 decay series were identified as well as the natural emitting nuclide K-40. The radionuclide concentration from the uranium and thorium series determined by gamma spectrometry ranged from 0.93 to 73.68 Bq/kg, while for K-40 the concentration ranged from 84.14 to 904.38 Bq/kg. The obtained results were used primarily to define the variability in measured environmental radiation and to determine the coal plant’s influence in the measured radiation levels. The highest values were measured at two locations near the power plant and at locations between the distance of 6 and 20 km away from the stacks, mainly in the prevailing wind direction. The results showed an increase or at least an influence from the coal-fired plant operations, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Three essays on the term structure of interest rates

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Evaluation of the welfare impact of regulating mobile termination rates in Portugal

Following the European Commission’s 2009 Recommendation on the Regulatory Treatment of Fixed and Mobile Termination Rates in the EU, the Portuguese regulatory authority (ANACOM) decided to reduce termination prices in mobile networks to their long-run incremental cost (LRIC). Nevertheless, no serious quantitative assessment of the potential effects of this decision was carried out. In this paper, we adapt and calibrate the Harbord and Hoernig (2014) model of the UK mobile telephony market to the Portuguese reality, and simulate the likely impact on consumer surplus, profits and welfare of four different regulatory approaches: pure LRIC, reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks, “bill & keep”, and asymmetric termination rates. Our results show that reducing MTRs does increase social welfare, profits and consumer surplus in the fixed market, but mobile subscribers are seriously harmed by this decision.