A simple score for estimating ischemic heart disease in patients with non-traumatic chest pain in primary care

Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.

Generation and nonlinear evolution of shore-oblique/transverse sand bars

The coupling between topography, waves and currents in the surf zone may selforganize to produce the formation of shore-transverse or shore-oblique sand bars on an otherwise alongshore uniform beach. In the absence of shore-parallel bars, this has been shown by previous studies of linear stability analysis, but is now extended to the finite-amplitude regime. To this end, a nonlinear model coupling wave transformation and breaking, a shallow-water equations solver, sediment transport and bed updating is developed. The sediment flux consists of a stirring factor multiplied by the depthaveraged current plus a downslope correction. It is found that the cross-shore profile of the ratio of stirring factor to water depth together with the wave incidence angle primarily determine the shape and the type of bars, either transverse or oblique to the shore. In the latter case, they can open an acute angle against the current (upcurrent oriented) or with the current (down-current oriented). At the initial stages of development, both the intensity of the instability which is responsible for the formation of the bars and the damping due to downslope transport grow at a similar rate with bar amplitude, the former being somewhat stronger. As bars keep on growing, their finite-amplitude shape either enhances downslope transport or weakens the instability mechanism so that an equilibrium between both opposing tendencies occurs, leading to a final saturated amplitude. The overall shape of the saturated bars in plan view is similar to that of the small-amplitude ones. However, the final spacings may be up to a factor of 2 larger and final celerities can also be about a factor of 2 smaller or larger. In the case of alongshore migrating bars, the asymmetry of the longshore sections, the lee being steeper than the stoss, is well reproduced. Complex dynamics with merging and splitting of individual bars sometimes occur. Finally, in the case of shore-normal incidence the rip currents in the troughs between the bars are jet-like while the onshore return flow is wider and weaker as is observed in nature.

War and the evolution of belligerence and bravery.

Tribal war occurs when a coalition of individuals use force to seize reproduction-enhancing resources, and it may have affected human evolution. Here, we develop a population-genetic model for the coevolution of costly male belligerence and bravery when war occurs between groups of individuals in a spatially subdivided population. Belligerence is assumed to increase an actor's group probability of trying to conquer another group. An actor's bravery is assumed to increase his group's ability to conquer an attacked group. We show that the selective pressure on these two traits can be substantial even in groups of large size, and that they may be driven by two independent reproduction-enhancing resources: additional mates for males and additional territory (or material resources) for females. This has consequences for our understanding of the evolution of intertribal interactions, as hunter-gatherer societies are well known to have frequently raided neighbouring groups from whom they appropriated territory, goods and women.

Copy number variants, diseases and gene expression.

Copy number variation (CNV) has recently gained considerable interest as a source of genetic variation likely to play a role in phenotypic diversity and evolution. Much effort has been put into the identification and mapping of regions that vary in copy number among seemingly normal individuals in humans and a number of model organisms, using bioinformatics or hybridization-based methods. These have allowed uncovering associations between copy number changes and complex diseases in whole-genome association studies, as well as identify new genomic disorders. At the genome-wide scale, however, the functional impact of CNV remains poorly studied. Here we review the current catalogs of CNVs, their association with diseases and how they link genotype and phenotype. We describe initial evidence which revealed that genes in CNV regions are expressed at lower and more variable levels than genes mapping elsewhere, and also that CNV not only affects the expression of genes varying in copy number, but also have a global influence on the transcriptome. Further studies are warranted for complete cataloguing and fine mapping of CNVs, as well as to elucidate the different mechanisms by which they influence gene expression.

Microstructural evolution of primary crystallization in diffusion-controlled grain growth

A model has been developed for evaluating grain size distributions in primary crystallizations where the grain growth is diffusion controlled. The body of the model is grounded in a recently presented mean-field integration of the nucleation and growth kinetic equations, modified conveniently in order to take into account a radius-dependent growth rate, as occurs in diffusion-controlled growth. The classical diffusion theory is considered, and a modification of this is proposed to take into account interference of the diffusion profiles between neighbor grains. The potentiality of the mean-field model to give detailed information on the grain size distribution and transformed volume fraction for transformations driven by nucleation and either interface- or diffusion-controlled growth processes is demonstrated. The model is evaluated for the primary crystallization of an amorphous alloy, giving an excellent agreement with experimental data. Grain size distributions are computed, and their properties are discussed.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Reemergence of dormant Coats disease after 30 years.

Purpose. We describe an atypical case of a patient with Coats disease that re-emerged after 30 years, illustrating a previously poorly understood long-term evolution of the disease. Methods. A 20-year-old man consulted for visual acuity (VA) decrease in the left eye (LE) to 0.3. Fundus examination revealed an exudative lesion with telangiectasias in the superior peripheral retina compatible with the diagnosis of Coats disease. Results. The patient was treated with cryotherapy and argon laser. Visual acuity improved to 0.5 and remained stable during a 1-year follow-up. The patient did not seek further clinical follow-up. Thirty years later, he returned complaining of a progressive VA decrease in the LE. Snellen VA was measured to counting fingers. Fundus examination revealed stage 3A Coats disease with macular exudation and a serous retinal detachment in the inferior quadrants requiring the placement of an encircling band, external drainage, and cryotherapy of the vascular lesions. After 10 additional sessions of argon laser on the vascular malformations, exudation regressed further and best-corrected VA increased to 0.1 at the end of the follow-up period. Conclusions. Coats disease must be considered as a chronic disease, which necessitates a very long-term follow-up even in the absence of subjective visual loss. The disease can reawaken and recur with force in previously unaffected areas of the retina several decades later. The gold standard treatment consists of cryotherapy and argon laser. However, in cases of very important retinal exudation, surgical management with subretinal drainage may be necessary.

The handaxe and the microscope: individual and social learning in a multidimensional model of adaptation

When individuals learn by trial-and-error, they perform randomly chosen actions and then reinforce those actions that led to a high payoff. However, individuals do not always have to physically perform an action in order to evaluate its consequences. Rather, they may be able to mentally simulate actions and their consequences without actually performing them. Such fictitious learners can select actions with high payoffs without making long chains of trial-and-error learning. Here, we analyze the evolution of an n-dimensional cultural trait (or artifact) by learning, in a payoff landscape with a single optimum. We derive the stochastic learning dynamics of the distance to the optimum in trait space when choice between alternative artifacts follows the standard logit choice rule. We show that for both trial-and-error and fictitious learners, the learning dynamics stabilize at an approximate distance of root n/(2 lambda(e)) away from the optimum, where lambda(e) is an effective learning performance parameter depending on the learning rule under scrutiny. Individual learners are thus unlikely to reach the optimum when traits are complex (n large), and so face a barrier to further improvement of the artifact. We show, however, that this barrier can be significantly reduced in a large population of learners performing payoff-biased social learning, in which case lambda(e) becomes proportional to population size. Overall, our results illustrate the effects of errors in learning, levels of cognition, and population size for the evolution of complex cultural traits. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Ancient protostome origin of chemosensory ionotropic glutamate receptors and the evolution of insect taste and olfaction.

Ionotropic glutamate receptors (iGluRs) are a highly conserved family of ligand-gated ion channels present in animals, plants, and bacteria, which are best characterized for their roles in synaptic communication in vertebrate nervous systems. A variant subfamily of iGluRs, the Ionotropic Receptors (IRs), was recently identified as a new class of olfactory receptors in the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, hinting at a broader function of this ion channel family in detection of environmental, as well as intercellular, chemical signals. Here, we investigate the origin and evolution of IRs by comprehensive evolutionary genomics and in situ expression analysis. In marked contrast to the insect-specific Odorant Receptor family, we show that IRs are expressed in olfactory organs across Protostomia--a major branch of the animal kingdom that encompasses arthropods, nematodes, and molluscs--indicating that they represent an ancestral protostome chemosensory receptor family. Two subfamilies of IRs are distinguished: conserved "antennal IRs," which likely define the first olfactory receptor family of insects, and species-specific "divergent IRs," which are expressed in peripheral and internal gustatory neurons, implicating this family in taste and food assessment. Comparative analysis of drosophilid IRs reveals the selective forces that have shaped the repertoires in flies with distinct chemosensory preferences. Examination of IR gene structure and genomic distribution suggests both non-allelic homologous recombination and retroposition contributed to the expansion of this multigene family. Together, these findings lay a foundation for functional analysis of these receptors in both neurobiological and evolutionary studies. Furthermore, this work identifies novel targets for manipulating chemosensory-driven behaviours of agricultural pests and disease vectors.

Update on the non-prewhitening model observer in computed tomography for the assessment of the adaptive statistical and model-based iterative reconstruction algorithms.

The state of the art to describe image quality in medical imaging is to assess the performance of an observer conducting a task of clinical interest. This can be done by using a model observer leading to a figure of merit such as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Using the non-prewhitening (NPW) model observer, we objectively characterised the evolution of its figure of merit in various acquisition conditions. The NPW model observer usually requires the use of the modulation transfer function (MTF) as well as noise power spectra. However, although the computation of the MTF poses no problem when dealing with the traditional filtered back-projection (FBP) algorithm, this is not the case when using iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithms, such as adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) or model-based iterative reconstruction (MBIR). Given that the target transfer function (TTF) had already shown it could accurately express the system resolution even with non-linear algorithms, we decided to tune the NPW model observer, replacing the standard MTF by the TTF. It was estimated using a custom-made phantom containing cylindrical inserts surrounded by water. The contrast differences between the inserts and water were plotted for each acquisition condition. Then, mathematical transformations were performed leading to the TTF. As expected, the first results showed a dependency of the image contrast and noise levels on the TTF for both ASIR and MBIR. Moreover, FBP also proved to be dependent of the contrast and noise when using the lung kernel. Those results were then introduced in the NPW model observer. We observed an enhancement of SNR every time we switched from FBP to ASIR to MBIR. IR algorithms greatly improve image quality, especially in low-dose conditions. Based on our results, the use of MBIR could lead to further dose reduction in several clinical applications.

Bloc atrioventriculaire complet sur borréliose de Lyme: aspects etectrocardiographiques, diagnostiques et microbiologiques [Atrioventricular heart block in Lyme disease]

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and in the United States. In comparison to dermatological, neurological and rheumatological manifestations, heart disease is quite rare. Atrioventricular heart block is nevertheless the most frequent cardiological manifestation. We hereby report the case of a patient with high degree heart block due to Lyme disease. We focus on the electrocardiographical evolution during antibiotic therapy, as well as on microbiological and diagnostic aspects. Lyme disease is a rare cause of conduction disturbances but it is treatable and potentially reversible.

Natural genetic variation in Arabidopsis: tools, traits and prospects for evolutionary ecology.

BACKGROUND: The model plant Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) shows a wide range of genetic and trait variation among wild accessions. Because of its unparalleled biological and genomic resources, the potential of Arabidopsis for molecular genetic analysis of this natural variation has increased dramatically in recent years. SCOPE: Advanced genomics has accelerated molecular phylogenetic analysis and gene identification by quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and/or association mapping in Arabidopsis. In particular, QTL mapping utilizing natural accessions is now becoming a major strategy of gene isolation, offering an alternative to artificial mutant lines. Furthermore, the genomic information is used by researchers to uncover the signature of natural selection acting on the genes that contribute to phenotypic variation. The evolutionary significance of such genes has been evaluated in traits such as disease resistance and flowering time. However, although molecular hallmarks of selection have been found for the genes in question, a corresponding ecological scenario of adaptive evolution has been difficult to prove. Ecological strategies, including reciprocal transplant experiments and competition experiments, and utilizing near-isogenic lines of alleles of interest will be a powerful tool to measure the relative fitness of phenotypic and/or allelic variants. CONCLUSIONS: As the plant model organism, Arabidopsis provides a wealth of molecular background information for evolutionary genetics. Because genetic diversity between and within Arabidopsis populations is much higher than anticipated, combining this background information with ecological approaches might well establish Arabidopsis as a model organism for plant evolutionary ecology.

Population viscosity can promote the evolution of altruistic sterile helpers and eusociality.

Because it increases relatedness between interacting individuals, population viscosity has been proposed to favour the evolution of altruistic helping. However, because it increases local competition between relatives, population viscosity may also act as a brake for the evolution of helping behaviours. In simple models, the kin selected fecundity benefits of helping are exactly cancelled out by the cost of increased competition between relatives when helping occurs after dispersal. This result has lead to the widespread view, especially among people working with social organisms, that special conditions are required for the evolution of altruism. Here, we re-examine this result by constructing a simple population genetic model where we analyse whether the evolution of a sterile worker caste (i.e. an extreme case of altruism) can be selected for by limited dispersal. We show that a sterile worker caste can be selected for even under the simplest life-cycle assumptions. This has relevant consequences for our understanding of the evolution of altruism in social organisms, as many social insects are characterized by limited dispersal and significant genetic population structure.

A murine genital-challenge model is a sensitive measure of protective antibodies against human papillomavirus infection.

The available virus-like particle (VLP)-based prophylactic vaccines against specific human papillomavirus (HPV) types afford close to 100% protection against the type-associated lesions and disease. Based on papillomavirus animal models, it is likely that protection against genital lesions in humans is mediated by HPV type-restricted neutralizing antibodies that transudate or exudate at the sites of genital infection. However, a correlate of protection was not established in the clinical trials because few disease cases occurred, and true incident infection could not be reliably distinguished from the emergence or reactivation of prevalent infection. In addition, the current assays for measuring vaccine-induced antibodies, even the gold standard HPV pseudovirion (PsV) in vitro neutralization assay, may not be sensitive enough to measure the minimum level of antibodies needed for protection. Here, we characterize the recently developed model of genital challenge with HPV PsV and determine the minimal amounts of VLP-induced neutralizing antibodies that can afford protection from genital infection in vivo after transfer into recipient mice. Our data show that serum antibody levels >100-fold lower than those detectable by in vitro PsV neutralization assays are sufficient to confer protection against an HPV PsV genital infection in this model. The results clearly demonstrate that, remarkably, the in vivo assay is substantially more sensitive than in vitro PsV neutralization and thus may be better suited for studies to establish correlates of protection.