Network learning:an empirically-derived conceptual model of learning by groups of organizations

Building on a previous conceptual article, we present an empirically derived model of network learning - learning by a group of organizations as a group. Based on a qualitative, longitudinal, multiple-method empirical investigation, five episodes of network learning were identified. Treating each episode as a discrete analytic case, through cross-case comparison, a model of network learning is developed which reflects the common, critical features of the episodes. The model comprises three conceptual themes relating to learning outcomes, and three conceptual themes of learning process. Although closely related to conceptualizations that emphasize the social and political character of organizational learning, the model of network learning is derived from, and specifically for, more extensive networks in which relations among numerous actors may be arms-length or collaborative, and may be expected to change over time.

Pricing-to-market using EGARCH-error correction model

In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.

Estimation of productivity in Korean electric power plants:a semiparametric smooth coefficient model

This paper analyzes the impact of load factor, facility and generator types on the productivity of Korean electric power plants. In order to capture important differences in the effect of load policy on power output, we use a semiparametric smooth coefficient (SPSC) model that allows us to model heterogeneous performances across power plants and over time by allowing underlying technologies to be heterogeneous. The SPSC model accommodates both continuous and discrete covariates. Various specification tests are conducted to assess the performance of the SPSC model. Using a unique generator level panel dataset spanning the period 1995-2006, we find that the impact of load factor, generator and facility types on power generation varies substantially in terms of magnitude and significance across different plant characteristics. The results have strong implications for generation policy in Korea as outlined in this study.

Approximate Model Checking of Real-Time Systems for Linear Duration Invariants

Real-time systems are usually modelled with timed automata and real-time requirements relating to the state durations of the system are often specifiable using Linear Duration Invariants, which is a decidable subclass of Duration Calculus formulas. Various algorithms have been developed to check timed automata or real-time automata for linear duration invariants, but each needs complicated preprocessing and exponential calculation. To the best of our knowledge, these algorithms have not been implemented. In this paper, we present an approximate model checking technique based on a genetic algorithm to check real-time automata for linear durration invariants in reasonable times. Genetic algorithm is a good optimization method when a problem needs massive computation and it works particularly well in our case because the fitness function which is derived from the linear duration invariant is linear. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): D.2.4, C.3.

Encouraging the intellectual craft of living research:tattoos, theory and time

This chapter contributes to the anthology on learning to research - researching to learn because it emphases a need to design curricula that enables living research, and on-going researcher development, rather than one that restricts student and staff activities, within a marketised approach towards time. In recent decades higher education (HE) has come to be valued for its contribution to the global economy. Referred to as the neo-liberal university, a strong prioritisation has been placed on meeting the needs of industry by providing a better workforce. This perspective emphasises the role of a degree in HE to secure future material affluence, rather than to study as an on-going investment in the self (Molesworth , Nixon & Scullion, 2009: 280). Students are treated primarily as consumers in this model, where through their tuition fees they purchase a product, rather than benefit from the transformative potential university education offers for the whole of life.Given that HE is now measured by the numbers of students it attracts, and later places into well-paid jobs, there is an intense pressure on time, which has led to a method where the learning experiences of students are broken down into discrete modules. Whilst this provides consistency, students can come to view research processes in a fragmented way within the modular system. Topics are presented chronologically, week-by-week and students simply complete a set of tasks to ‘have a degree’, rather than to ‘be learners’ (Molesworth , Nixon & Scullion, 2009: 277) who are living their research, in relation to their own past, present and future. The idea of living research in this context is my own adaptation of an approach suggested by C. Wright Mills (1959) in The Sociological Imagination. Mills advises that successful scholars do not split their work from the rest of their lives, but treat scholarship as a choice of how to live, as well as a choice of career. The marketised slant in HE thus creates a tension firstly, for students who are learning to research. Mills would encourage them to be creative, not instrumental, in their use of time, yet they are journeying through a system that is structured for a swift progression towards a high paid job, rather than crafted for reflexive inquiry, that transforms their understanding throughout life. Many universities are placing a strong focus on discrete skills for student employability, but I suggest that embedding the transformative skills emphasised by Mills empowers students and builds their confidence to help them make connections that aid their employability. Secondly, the marketised approach creates a problem for staff designing the curriculum, if students do not easily make links across time over their years of study and whole programmes. By researching to learn, staff can discover new methods to apply in their design of the curriculum, to help students make important and creative connections across their programmes of study.

Strongly localized moving discrete dissipative breather-solitons in Kerr nonlinear media supported by intrinsic gain

We investigate the mobility of nonlinear localized modes in a generalized discrete Ginzburg-Landau-type model, describing a one-dimensional waveguide array in an active Kerr medium with intrinsic, saturable gain and damping. It is shown that exponentially localized, traveling discrete dissipative breather-solitons may exist as stable attractors supported only by intrinsic properties of the medium, i.e., in the absence of any external field or symmetry-breaking perturbations. Through an interplay by the gain and damping effects, the moving soliton may overcome the Peierls-Nabarro barrier, present in the corresponding conservative system, by self-induced time-periodic oscillations of its power (norm) and energy (Hamiltonian), yielding exponential decays to zero with different rates in the forward and backward directions. In certain parameter windows, bistability appears between fast modes with small oscillations and slower, large-oscillation modes. The velocities and the oscillation periods are typically related by lattice commensurability and exhibit period-doubling bifurcations to chaotically "walking" modes under parameter variations. If the model is augmented by intersite Kerr nonlinearity, thereby reducing the Peierls-Nabarro barrier of the conservative system, the existence regime for moving solitons increases considerably, and a richer scenario appears including Hopf bifurcations to incommensurately moving solutions and phase-locking intervals. Stable moving breathers also survive in the presence of weak disorder. © 2014 American Physical Society.

A diszkrét kiválasztási modell becslése Cox-regresszióval (Parameter estimation for multinomial discrete choice model using Cox-regression)

Considering the so-called "multinomial discrete choice" model the focus of this paper is on the estimation problem of the parameters. Especially, the basic question arises how to carry out the point and interval estimation of the parameters when the model is mixed i.e. includes both individual and choice-specific explanatory variables while a standard MDC computer program is not available for use. The basic idea behind the solution is the use of the Cox-proportional hazards method of survival analysis which is available in any standard statistical package and provided a data structure satisfying certain special requirements it yields the MDC solutions desired. The paper describes the features of the data set to be analysed.

Three essays on asset pricing

In this dissertation, I investigate three related topics on asset pricing: the consumption-based asset pricing under long-run risks and fat tails, the pricing of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) options and the market price of risk embedded in stock returns and stock options. These three topics are fully explored in Chapter II through IV. Chapter V summarizes the main conclusions. In Chapter II, I explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. I estimate the structural parameters of the proposed model by maximum likelihood. I find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can, without resorting to high risk aversion, generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. In Chapter III, I examine the pricing performance of VIX option models. The contention that simpler-is-better is supported by the empirical evidence using actual VIX option market data. I find that no model has small pricing errors over the entire range of strike prices and times to expiration. In general, Whaley’s Black-like option model produces the best overall results, supporting the simpler-is-better contention. However, the Whaley model does under/overprice out-of-the-money call/put VIX options, which is contrary to the behavior of stock index option pricing models. In Chapter IV, I explore risk pricing through a model of time-changed Lvy processes based on the joint evidence from individual stock options and underlying stocks. I specify a pricing kernel that prices idiosyncratic and systematic risks. This approach to examining risk premia on stocks deviates from existing studies. The empirical results show that the market pays positive premia for idiosyncratic and market jump-diffusion risk, and idiosyncratic volatility risk. However, there is no consensus on the premium for market volatility risk. It can be positive or negative. The positive premium on idiosyncratic risk runs contrary to the implications of traditional capital asset pricing theory.

A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

An agent-based model of team coordination and performance

This research is based on the premises that teams can be designed to optimize its performance, and appropriate team coordination is a significant factor to team outcome performance. Contingency theory argues that the effectiveness of a team depends on the right fit of the team design factors to the particular job at hand. Therefore, organizations need computational tools capable of predict the performance of different configurations of teams. This research created an agent-based model of teams called the Team Coordination Model (TCM). The TCM estimates the coordination load and performance of a team, based on its composition, coordination mechanisms, and job’s structural characteristics. The TCM can be used to determine the team’s design characteristics that most likely lead the team to achieve optimal performance. The TCM is implemented as an agent-based discrete-event simulation application built using JAVA and Cybele Pro agent architecture. The model implements the effect of individual team design factors on team processes, but the resulting performance emerges from the behavior of the agents. These team member agents use decision making, and explicit and implicit mechanisms to coordinate the job. The model validation included the comparison of the TCM’s results with statistics from a real team and with the results predicted by the team performance literature. An illustrative 26-1 fractional factorial experimental design demonstrates the application of the simulation model to the design of a team. The results from the ANOVA analysis have been used to recommend the combination of levels of the experimental factors that optimize the completion time for a team that runs sailboats races. This research main contribution to the team modeling literature is a model capable of simulating teams working on complex job environments. The TCM implements a stochastic job structure model capable of capturing some of the complexity not capture by current models. In a stochastic job structure, the tasks required to complete the job change during the team execution of the job. This research proposed three new types of dependencies between tasks required to model a job as a stochastic structure. These dependencies are conditional sequential, single-conditional sequential, and the merge dependencies.