Analysis Scheme in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

This paper discusses an important issue related to the implementation and interpretation of the analysis scheme in the ensemble Kalman filter . I t i s shown that the obser vations must be treated as random variables at the analysis steps. That is, one should add random perturbations with the correct statistics to the obser vations and generate an ensemble of obser vations that then is used in updating the ensemble of model states. T raditionally , this has not been done in previous applications of the ensemble Kalman filter and, as will be shown, this has resulted in an updated ensemble with a variance that is too low . This simple modification of the analysis scheme results in a completely consistent approach if the covariance of the ensemble of model states is interpreted as the prediction error covariance, and there are no further requirements on the ensemble Kalman filter method, except for the use of an ensemble of sufficient size. Thus, there is a unique correspondence between the error statistics from the ensemble Kalman filter and the standard Kalman filter approach

Differential activation of protein kinase C isoforms by endothelin-1 and phenylephrine and subsequent stimulation of p42 and p44 mitogen-activated protein kinases in ventricular myocytes cultured from neonatal rat hearts.

The translocation of protein kinase C (PKC) isoforms PKC-alpha, PKC-delta, PKC-epsilon, and PKC-zeta from soluble to particulate fractions was studied in ventricular cardiomyocytes cultured from neonatal rats. Endothelin-1 (ET-1) caused a rapid ETA receptor-mediated translocation of PKC-delta and PKC-epsilon (complete in 0.5-1 min). By 3-5 min, both isoforms were returning to the soluble fraction, but a greater proportion of PKC-epsilon remained associated with the particulate fraction. The EC50 of translocation for PKC-delta was 11-15 nM ET-1 whereas that for PKC-epsilon was 1.4-1.7 nM. Phenylephrine caused a rapid translocation of PKC-epsilon (EC50 = 0.9 microM) but the proportion lost from the soluble fraction was less than with ET-1. Translocation of PKC-delta was barely detectable with phenylephrine. Neither agonist caused any consistent translocation of PKC-alpha or PKC-zeta. Activation of p42 and p44 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) by ET-1 or phenylephrine followed more slowly (complete in 3-5 min). Phosphorylation of p42-MAPK occurred simultaneously with its activation. The proportion of the total p42-MAPK pool phosphorylated in response to ET-1 (50%) was greater than with phenylephrine (20%). In addition to activation of MAPK, an unidentified p85 protein kinase was activated by ET-1 in the soluble fraction whereas an unidentified p58 protein kinase was activated in the particulate fraction.

A joint state and parameter estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamical systems

We present a novel algorithm for concurrent model state and parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. The new scheme uses ideas from three dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) together with the technique of state augmentation to estimate uncertain model parameters alongside the model state variables in a sequential filtering system. The method is relatively simple to implement and computationally inexpensive to run for large systems with relatively few parameters. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method via a series of identical twin experiments with three simple dynamical system models. The scheme is able to recover the parameter values to a good level of accuracy, even when observational data are noisy. We expect this new technique to be easily transferable to much larger models.

A genome-wide test of the differential susceptibility hypothesis reveals a genetic predictor of differential response to psychological treatments for child anxiety disorders

Background: The differential susceptibly hypothesis suggests that certain genetic variants moderate the effects of both negative and positive environments on mental health and may therefore be important predictors of response to psychological treatments. Nevertheless, the identification of such variants has so far been limited to preselected candidate genes. In this study we extended the differential susceptibility hypothesis from a candidate gene to a genome-wide approach to test whether a polygenic score of environmental sensitivity predicted response to Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) in children with anxiety disorders. Methods: We identified variants associated with environmental sensitivity using a novel method in which within-pair variability in emotional problems in 1026 monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs was examined as a function of the pairs’ genotype. We created a polygenic score of environmental sensitivity based on the whole-genome findings and tested the score as a moderator of parenting on emotional problems in 1,406 children and response to individual, group and brief parent-led CBT in 973 children with anxiety disorders. Results: The polygenic score significantly moderated the effects of parenting on emotional problems and the effects of treatment. Individuals with a high score responded significantly better to individual CBT than group CBT or brief parent-led CBT (remission rates: 70.9%, 55.5% and 41.6% respectively). Conclusions: Pending successful replication, our results should be considered exploratory. Nevertheless, if replicated, they suggest that individuals with the greatest environmental sensitivity may be more likely to develop emotional problems in adverse environments, but also benefit more from the most intensive types of treatment.

Insulin resistance determines a differential response to changes in dietary fat modification on metabolic syndrome risk factors: the LIPGENE study

Background: Previous data support the benefits of reducing dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) on insulin resistance (IR) and other metabolic risk factors. However, whether the IR status of those suffering from metabolic syndrome (MetS) affects this response is not established. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine whether the degree of IR influences the effect of substituting high-saturated fatty acid (HSFA) diets by isoenergetic alterations in the quality and quantity of dietary fat on MetS risk factors. DESIGN: In this single-blind, parallel, controlled, dietary intervention study, MetS subjects (n = 472) from 8 European countries classified by different IR levels according to homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were randomly assigned to 4 diets: an HSFA diet; a high-monounsaturated fatty acid (HMUFA) diet; a low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diet supplemented with long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (1.2 g/d); or an LFHCC diet supplemented with placebo for 12 wk (control). Anthropometric, lipid, inflammatory, and IR markers were determined. RESULTS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with the highest HOMA-IR improved IR, with reduced insulin and HOMA-IR concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets (P < 0.05). In contrast, subjects with lower HOMA-IR showed reduced body mass index and waist circumference after consumption of the LFHCC control and LFHCC n-3 diets and increased HDL cholesterol concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (P < 0.05). MetS subjects with a low to medium HOMA-IR exhibited reduced blood pressure, triglyceride, and LDL cholesterol levels after the LFHCC n-3 diet and increased apolipoprotein A-I concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with more metabolic complications responded differently to dietary fat modification, being more susceptible to a health effect from the substitution of SFAs in the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets. Conversely, MetS subjects without IR may be more sensitive to the detrimental effects of HSFA intake. The metabolic phenotype of subjects clearly determines response to the quantity and quality of dietary fat on MetS risk factors, which suggests that targeted and personalized dietary therapies may be of value for its different metabolic features.

Differential interaction of estrogen receptor and thyroid hormone receptor isoforms on the rat oxytocin receptor promoter leads to differences in transcriptional regulation

Both the estrogen receptor (ER) and thyroid hormone receptor (TR) are members of the nuclear receptor superfamily. Two isoforms of the ER, alpha and beta, exist. The TRalpha and beta isoforms are products of two distinct genes that are further differentially spliced to give TRalpha1 and alpha2, TRbeta1 and beta2. The TRs have been shown to interfere with ER-mediated transcription from both the consensus estrogen response element (ERE) and the rat preproenkephalin (PPE) promoter, possibly by competing with ER binding to the ERE or by squelching coactivators essential for ER-mediated transcription. The rat oxytocin receptor (OTR) gene is thought to be involved in several facets of reproductive and affiliative behaviors. 17beta-Estradiol-bound ERs upregulate the OTR gene in the ventromedial hypothalamus, a region critical for the induction of lordosis behavior in several species. We investigated the effects of the ligand-binding TR isoforms on the ER-mediated transcription from a physiological promoter of a behaviorally relevant gene such as the OTR. Only ERalpha could induce the OTR gene in two cell lines tested, the CV-1 and the SK-N-BE2C neuroblastoma cell lines. ERbeta was incapable of inducing the gene in either cell line. ERalpha is therefore not equivalent to ERbeta on this physiological promoter. Indeed, in the neural cell line, ERbeta can inhibit ERalpha-mediated induction from the OTR promoter. While the TRalpha1 isoform inhibited ERalpha-mediated induction in the neural cell line, the TRbeta1 isoform stimulated induction, thus demonstrating isoform specificity in the interaction. The use of a DNA-binding mutant, the TR P box mutant, showed that inhibition of ERalpha-mediated induction of the rat OTR gene promoter by the TRalpha1 isoform does not require DNA-binding ability. SRC-1 overexpression relieved TRalpha1-mediated inhibition in both cell lines, suggesting that squelching for coactivators is an important molecular mechanism in TRalpha-mediated inhibition. Such interactions between TR and ER isoforms on the rat OTR promoter provide a mechanism to achieve neuroendocrine integration.

Differential crosstalk between estrogen receptor (ER) alpha and ER beta and the thyroid hormone receptor isoforms results in flexible regulation of the consensus ERE

Crosstalk between nuclear receptors is important for conversion of external and internal stimuli to a physiologically meaningful response by cells. Previous studies from this laboratory have demonstrated crosstalk between the estrogen (ER) and thyroid hormone receptors (TR) on two estrogen responsive physiological promoters, the preproenkephalin and oxytocin receptor gene promoter. Since ERa and ERb are isoforms possessing overlapping and distinct transactivation properties, we hypothesized that the interaction of ERa and b with the various TR isoforms would not be equivalent. To explore this hypothesis, the consensus estrogen response element (ERE)derived from the Xenopus vitellogenin gene is used to investigate the differences in interaction between ERa and b isoforms and the different TR isoforms in fibroblast cells. Both the ER isoforms transactivate from the consensus ERE, though ERa transactivates to a greater extent than ERb. Although neither of the TRb isoforms have an effect on ERa transactivation from the consensus ERE, the liganded TRa1 inhibits the ERa transactivation from the consensus ERE. In contrast, the liganded TRa1 facilitates ERb-mediated transactivation. The crosstalk between the TRb isoforms with the ERa isoform, on the consensus ERE, is different from that with the ERb isoform. The use of a TRa1 mutant, which is unable to bind DNA, abolishes the ability of the TRa1 isoform to interact with either of the ER isoforms. These differences in nuclear receptor crosstalk reveal an important functional difference between isoforms, which provides a novel mechanism for neuroendocrine integration.

Crosstalk between oestrogen receptors and thyroid hormone receptor isoforms results in differential regulation of the preproenkephalin gene

Nuclear receptors are ligand-activated transcription factors, which have the potential to integrate internal metabolic events in an organism, with consequences for control of behaviour. Previous studies from this laboratory have shown that thyroid hormone receptor (TR) isoforms can inhibit oestrogen receptor (ER)alpha-mediated induction of preproenkephalin (PPE) gene expression in the hypothalamus. Also, thyroid hormone administration inhibits lordosis, a behaviour facilitated by PPE expression. We have examined the effect of multiple ligand-binding TR isoforms on the ER-mediated induction of the PPE gene in transient transfection assays in CV-1 cells. On a natural PPE gene promoter fragment containing two putative oestrogen response elements (EREs), both ER alpha and beta isoforms mediate a four to five-fold induction by oestrogen. Cotransfection of TR alpha 1 along with ER alpha inhibited the ER alpha transactivation of PPE by approximately 50%. However, cotransfection with either TR beta 1 or TR beta 2 expression plasmids produced no effect on the ER alpha or ER beta mediated induction of PPE. Therefore, under these experimental conditions, interactions with a single ER isoform are specific to an individual TR isoform. Transfection with a TR alpha 1 DNA-binding mutant could also inhibit ER alpha transactivation, suggesting that competition for binding on the ERE may not be the exclusive mechanism for inhibition. Data with the coactivator, SRC-1, suggested that coactivator squelching may participate in the inhibition. In dramatic contrast, when ER beta is cotransfected, TR alpha 1 stimulated ER beta-mediated transactivation of PPE by approximately eight-fold over control levels. This is the first study revealing specific interactions among nuclear receptor isoforms on a neuroendocrine promoter. These data also suggest that the combinatorics of ER and TR isoforms allow multiple forms of flexible gene regulations in the service of neuroendocrine integration.

The metaphysics of self in Praśastapāda's differential naturalism

In A Compendium of the Characteristics of Categories (Padārthadharmasaṃgraha) the classical Vaiśeṣika philosopher Praśastapāda (6th c. CE) presents an innovative metaphysics of the self. This article examines the defining metaphysical and axiological features of this conception of self and the dualist categorial schema in which it is located. It shows how this idea of the self, as a reflexive and ethical being, grounds a multinaturalist view of natural order and offers a conception of agency that claims to account for all the reflexive features of human mental and bodily life. Finally, it discusses the ends of self’s reflexivity and of human life as a return to the true self. It argues that at the heart of Praśastapāda’s metaphysics of self is the idea that ethics is metaphysics, and that epistemic practice is ethical practice.

Pension scheme redesign and wealth redistribution between the members and sponsor: the USS rule change in October 2011

The redesign of defined benefit pension schemes usually results in a substantial redistribution of wealth between age cohorts of members, pensioners, and the sponsor. This is the first study to quantify the redistributive effects of a rule change by a real world scheme (the Universities Superannuation Scheme, USS) where the sponsor underwrites the pension promise. In October 2011 USS closed its final salary scheme to new members, opened a career average revalued earnings (CARE) section, and moved to ‘cap and share’ contribution rates. We find that the pre-October 2011 scheme was not viable in the long run, while the post-October 2011 scheme is probably viable in the long run, but faces medium term problems. In October 2011 future members of USS lost 65% of their pension wealth (or roughly £100,000 per head), equivalent to a reduction of roughly 11% in their total compensation, while those aged over 57 years lost almost nothing. The riskiness of the pension wealth of future members increased by a third, while the riskiness of the present value of the sponsor’s future contributions reduced by 10%. Finally, the sponsor’s wealth increased by about £32.5 billion, equivalent to a reduction of 26% in their pension costs.

Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): development and evaluation at two UK sites

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated at two locations in the UK: a dense urban site in the centre of London and a residential suburban site in Swindon. Eddy covariance observations of the turbulent fluxes are used to assess model performance over a twoyear period (2011-2013). The distinct characteristics of the sites mean their surface energy exchanges differ considerably. The model suggests the largest differences can be attributed to surface cover (notably the proportion of vegetated versus impervious area) and the additional energy supplied by human activities. SUEWS performs better in summer than winter, and better at the suburban site than the dense urban site. One reason for this is the bias towards suburban summer field campaigns in observational data used to parameterise this (and other) model(s). The suitability of model parameters (such as albedo, energy use and water use) for the UK sites is considered and, where appropriate, alternative values are suggested. An alternative parameterisation for the surface conductance is implemented, which permits greater soil moisture deficits before evaporation is restricted at non-irrigated sites. Accounting for seasonal variation in the estimation of storage heat flux is necessary to obtain realistic wintertime fluxes.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

Mobile sink based fault diagnosis scheme for wireless sensor networks

Network diagnosis in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) is a difficult task due to their improvisational nature, invisibility of internal running status, and particularly since the network structure can frequently change due to link failure. To solve this problem, we propose a Mobile Sink (MS) based distributed fault diagnosis algorithm for WSNs. An MS, or mobile fault detector is usually a mobile robot or vehicle equipped with a wireless transceiver that performs the task of a mobile base station while also diagnosing the hardware and software status of deployed network sensors. Our MS mobile fault detector moves through the network area polling each static sensor node to diagnose the hardware and software status of nearby sensor nodes using only single hop communication. Therefore, the fault detection accuracy and functionality of the network is significantly increased. In order to maintain an excellent Quality of Service (QoS), we employ an optimal fault diagnosis tour planning algorithm. In addition to saving energy and time, the tour planning algorithm excludes faulty sensor nodes from the next diagnosis tour. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms through simulation and real life experimental results.