Climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Europe

Climate is one of the main factors controlling winegrape production. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a widely used zoning tool. Seven suitable bioclimatic indices characterize regions in Europe with different viticultural suitability, and their possible geographical shifts under future climate conditions are addressed using regional climate model simulations. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (daily values of temperature and precipitation) obtained from transient ensemble simulations with the regional model COSMO-CLM. Index maps for recent decades (1960–2000) and for the 21st century (following the IPCC-SRES B1 and A1B scenarios) are compared. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant effect on European viticultural geography. Detrimental impacts on winegrowing are predicted in southern Europe, mainly due to increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during the growing season. These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making adaptation strategies crucial, such as changing varieties or introducing water supply by irrigation. Conversely, in western and central Europe, projected future changes will benefit not only wine quality, but might also demarcate new potential areas for viticulture, despite some likely threats associated with diseases. Regardless of the inherent uncertainties, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in different European regions.

Human frontal lobes are not relatively large

One of the most pervasive assumptions about human brain evolution is that it involved relative enlargement of the frontal lobes. We show that this assumption is without foundation. Analysis of five independent data sets using correctly scaled measures and phylogenetic methods reveals that the size of human frontal lobes, and of specific frontal regions, is as expected relative to the size of other brain structures. Recent claims for relative enlargement of human frontal white matter volume, and for relative enlargement shared by all great apes, seem to be mistaken. Furthermore, using a recently developed method for detecting shifts in evolutionary rates, we find that the rate of change in relative frontal cortex volume along the phylogenetic branch leading to humans was unremarkable and that other branches showed significantly faster rates of change. Although absolute and proportional frontal region size increased rapidly in humans, this change was tightly correlated with corresponding size increases in other areas andwhole brain size, and with decreases in frontal neuron densities. The search for the neural basis of human cognitive uniqueness should therefore focus less on the frontal lobes in isolation and more on distributed neural networks.

Weaning diet induces sustained metabolic phenotype shift in the pig and influences host response to Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818

Background: The process of weaning causes a major shift in intestinal microbiota and is a critical period for developing appropriate immune responses in young mammals. Objective: To use a new systems approach to provide an overview of host metabolism and the developing immune system in response to nutritional intervention around the weaning period. Design: Piglets (n¼14) were weaned onto either an eggbased or soya-based diet at 3 weeks until 7 weeks, when all piglets were switched onto a fish-based diet. Half the animals on each weaning diet received Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818 supplementation from weaning onwards. Immunoglobulin production from immunologically relevant intestinal sites was quantified and the urinary 1H NMR metabolic profile was obtained from each animal at post mortem (11 weeks). Results: Different weaning diets induced divergent and sustained shifts in the metabolic phenotype, which resulted in the alteration of urinary gut microbial co-metabolites, even after 4 weeks of dietary standardisation. B lactis NCC2818 supplementation affected the systemic metabolism of the different weaning diet groups over and above the effects of diet. Additionally, production of gut mucosa-associated IgA and IgM was found to depend upon the weaning diet and on B lactis NCC2818 supplementation. Conclusion: The correlation of urinary 1H NMR metabolic profile with mucosal immunoglobulin production was demonstrated, thus confirming the value of this multiplatform approach in uncovering non-invasive biomarkers of immunity. This has clear potential for translation into human healthcare with the development of urine testing as a means of assessing mucosal immune status. This might lead to early diagnosis of intestinal dysbiosis and with subsequent intervention, arrest disease development. This system enhances our overall understanding of pathologies under supra-organismal control.

Jet characterization in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS): applications to climatology and transport studies

A method of classifying the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric (UTLS) jets has been developed that allows satellite and aircraft trace gas data and meteorological fields to be efficiently mapped in a jet coordinate view. A detailed characterization of multiple tropopauses accompanies the jet characterization. Jet climatologies show the well-known high altitude subtropical and lower altitude polar jets in the upper troposphere, as well as a pattern of concentric polar and subtropical jets in the Southern Hemisphere, and shifts of the primary jet to high latitudes associated with blocking ridges in Northern Hemisphere winter. The jet-coordinate view segregates air masses differently than the commonly-used equivalent latitude (EqL) coordinate throughout the lowermost stratosphere and in the upper troposphere. Mapping O3 data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite and the Winter Storms aircraft datasets in jet coordinates thus emphasizes different aspects of the circulation compared to an EqL-coordinate framework: the jet coordinate reorders the data geometrically, thus highlighting the strong PV, tropopause height and trace gas gradients across the subtropical jet, whereas EqL is a dynamical coordinate that may blur these spatial relationships but provides information on irreversible transport. The jet coordinate view identifies the concentration of stratospheric ozone well below the tropopause in the region poleward of and below the jet core, as well as other transport features associated with the upper tropospheric jets. Using the jet information in EqL coordinates allows us to study trace gas distributions in regions of weak versus strong jets, and demonstrates weaker transport barriers in regions with less jet influence. MLS and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer trace gas fields for spring 2008 in jet coordinates show very strong, closely correlated, PV, tropopause height and trace gas gradients across the jet, and evidence of intrusions of stratospheric air below the tropopause below and poleward of the subtropical jet; these features are consistent between instruments and among multiple trace gases. Our characterization of the jets is facilitating studies that will improve our understanding of upper tropospheric trace gas evolution.

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

Convergent structure of multitrophic communities over three continents

Ecological theory predicts that communities using the same resources should have similar structure, but evolutionary constraints on colonization and niche shifts may hamper such convergence. Multitrophic communities of wasps exploiting fig fruits, which first evolved about 75MYA, do not show long-term “inheritance” of taxonomic (lineage) composition or species diversity. However, communities on three continents have converged ecologically in the presence and relative abundance of five insect guilds that we define. Some taxa fill the same niches in each community (phylogenetic niche conservatism). However, we show that overall convergence in ecological community structure depends also on a combination of niche shifts by resident lineages and local colonizations of figs by other insect lineages. Our study explores new ground, and develops new heuristic tools, in combining ecology and phylogeny to address patterns in the complex multitrophic communities of insect on plants, which comprise a large part of terrestrial biodiversity.

Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Insights into the molecular architecture of a peptide nanotube using FTIR and solid-state NMR spectroscopic measurements on an aligned sample

The self-assembly of proteins and peptides into b-sheet-rich amyloid fibers is a process that has gained notoriety because of its association with human diseases and disorders. Spontaneous self-assembly of peptides into nonfibrillar supramolecular structures can also provide a versatile and convenient mechanism for the bottom-up design of biocompatible materials with functional properties favoring a wide range of practical applications.[1] One subset of these fascinating and potentially useful nanoscale constructions are the peptide nanotubes, elongated cylindrical structures with a hollow center bounded by a thin wall of peptide molecules.[2] A formidable challenge in optimizing and harnessing the properties of nanotube assemblies is to gain atomistic insight into their architecture, and to elucidate precisely how the tubular morphology is constructed from the peptide building blocks. Some of these fine details have been elucidated recently with the use of magic-angle-spinning (MAS) solidstate NMR (SSNMR) spectroscopy.[3] MAS SSNMR measurements of chemical shifts and through-space interatomic distances provide constraints on peptide conformation (e.g., b-strands and turns) and quaternary packing. We describe here a new application of a straightforward SSNMR technique which, when combined with FTIR spectroscopy, reports quantitatively on the orientation of the peptide molecules within the nanotube structure, thereby providing an additional structural constraint not accessible to MAS SSNMR.

Towards radiocarbon calibration beyond 28ka using speleothems from the Bahamas

We present a new speleothem record of atmospheric Δ14C between 28 and 44 ka that offers considerable promise for resolving some of the uncertainty associated with existing radiocarbon calibration curves for this time period. The record is based on a comprehensive suite of AMS 14C ages, using new low-blank protocols, and U–Th ages using high precision MC-ICPMS procedures. Atmospheric Δ14C was calculated by correcting 14C ages with a constant dead carbon fraction (DCF) of 22.7 ± 5.9%, based on a comparison of stalagmite 14C ages with the IntCal04 (Reimer et al., 2004) calibration curve between 15 and 11 ka. The new Δ14C speleothem record shows similar structure and amplitude to that derived from Cariaco Basin foraminifera (Hughen et al., 2004, 2006), and the match is further improved if the latter is tied to the most recent Greenland ice core chronology (Svensson et al., 2008). These data are however in conflict with a previously published 14C data set for a stalagmite record from the Bahamas — GB-89-24-1 (Beck et al., 2001), which likely suffered from 14C analytical blank subtraction issues in the older part of the record. The new Bahamas speleothem ∆14C data do not show the extreme shifts between 44 and 40 ka reported in the previous study (Beck et al., 2001). Causes for the observed structure in derived atmospheric Δ14C variation based on the new speleothem data are investigated with a suite of simulations using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Data-model comparison indicates that major fluctuations in atmospheric ∆14C during marine isotope stage 3 is primarily a function of changes in geomagnetic field intensity, although ocean–atmosphere system reorganisation also played a supporting role.

The mirror of consumption: celebritization, developmental consumption and the shifting cultural politics of fair trade

This paper explores the shifting cultural politics of development as expressed in the changing narratives and discursive transparencies of fair trade marketing tactics in the UK. Pursued through what I call ‘developmental consumption’ and the increasing celebritization of development, it is now through the global media mega-star that the subaltern speaks. After a more general discussion of the implications of the celebritization of development, specific analysis focuses on two parallel processes complicit in the ‘mainstreaming’ of fair trade markets and the desire to develop fair trade as a product of ‘quality’. The first involves improving the taste of fair trade commodities through alterations in their material supply chains while the second involves novel marketing narratives designed to invoke these conventions of quality through highly meaningful discursive and visual means. The later process is conceptualized through the theoretical device of the shifting ‘embodiments’ of fair trade which have moved from small farmers’ livelihoods, to landscapes of ‘quality’, to increasing congeries of celebrities such as Chris Martin from the UK band Coldplay. These shifts encapsulate what is referred to here as fair trade’s Faustian Bargain and its ambiguous results: the creation of increasing economic returns and, thus, more development through the movement of fair trade goods into mainstream retail markets at the same time there is a de-centering of the historical discursive transparency at the core of fair trade’s moral economy. Here, then, the celebritization of fair trade has the potential to create ‘the mirror of consumption’, whereby, our gaze is reflected back upon ourselves in the form of ‘the rich and famous’ Northern celebrity muddling the ethics of care developed by connecting consumers to fair trade farmers and their livelihoods. The paper concludes with a consideration of development and fair trade politics in the context of their growing aestheticization and celebritization.

Pooling of forecasts

We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject to location shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be proved that only non-encompassed devices should be retained in the combination. Empirical and Monte Carlo illustrations confirm the analysis.

Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts

Synthesis and Electronic Structure of Dissymmetrical, Naphthalene-Bridged Sandwich Complexes [Cp′Fe(μ‑C10H8)MCp*]x (x = 0, +1; M =Fe, Ru; Cp′ = η5‑C5H2‑1,2,4‑tBu3; Cp* = η5‑C5Me5)

The dissymmetrical naphthalene-bridged complexes [Cp′Fe(μ-C10H8)FeCp*] (3; Cp* = η5-C5Me5, Cp′ = η5-C5H2-1,2,4-tBu3) and [Cp′Fe(μ-C10H8)RuCp*] (4) were synthesized via a one-pot procedure from FeCl2(thf)1.5, Cp′K, KC10H8, and [Cp* FeCl(tmeda)] (tmeda = N,N,N′,N′- tetramethylethylenediamine) or [Cp*RuCl]4, respectively. The symmetrically substituted iron ruthenium complex [Cp*Fe(μ-C10H8)RuCp*] (5) bearing two Cp* ligands was prepared as a reference compound. Compounds 3−5 are diamagnetic and display similar molecular structures, where the metal atoms are coordinated to opposite sides of the bridging naphthalene molecule. Cyclic voltammetry and UV/vis spectroelectrochemistry studies revealed that neutral 3−5 can be oxidized to monocations 3+−5+ and dications 32+−52+. The chemical oxidation of 3 and 4 with [Cp2Fe]PF6 afforded the paramagnetic hexafluorophosphate salts [Cp′Fe(μ-C10H8)FeCp*]PF6 ([3]PF6) and [Cp′Fe(μ-C10H8)RuCp*]PF6 ([4]PF6), which were characterized by various spectroscopic techniques, including EPR and 57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy. The molecular structure of [4]PF6 was determined by X-ray crystallography. DFT calculations support the structural and spectroscopic data and determine the compositions of frontier molecular orbitals in the investigated complexes. The effects of substituting Cp* with Cp′ and Fe with Ru on the electronic structures and the structural and spectroscopic properties are analyzed.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.