Optimal uncertainty quantification via convex optimization and relaxation

Many engineering applications face the problem of bounding the expected value of a quantity of interest (performance, risk, cost, etc.) that depends on stochastic uncertainties whose probability distribution is not known exactly. Optimal uncertainty quantification (OUQ) is a framework that aims at obtaining the best bound in these situations by explicitly incorporating available information about the distribution. Unfortunately, this often leads to non-convex optimization problems that are numerically expensive to solve.

This thesis emphasizes on efficient numerical algorithms for OUQ problems. It begins by investigating several classes of OUQ problems that can be reformulated as convex optimization problems. Conditions on the objective function and information constraints under which a convex formulation exists are presented. Since the size of the optimization problem can become quite large, solutions for scaling up are also discussed. Finally, the capability of analyzing a practical system through such convex formulations is demonstrated by a numerical example of energy storage placement in power grids.

When an equivalent convex formulation is unavailable, it is possible to find a convex problem that provides a meaningful bound for the original problem, also known as a convex relaxation. As an example, the thesis investigates the setting used in Hoeffding's inequality. The naive formulation requires solving a collection of non-convex polynomial optimization problems whose number grows doubly exponentially. After structures such as symmetry are exploited, it is shown that both the number and the size of the polynomial optimization problems can be reduced significantly. Each polynomial optimization problem is then bounded by its convex relaxation using sums-of-squares. These bounds are found to be tight in all the numerical examples tested in the thesis and are significantly better than Hoeffding's bounds.

Optimal scaling in ductile fracture

This work is concerned with the derivation of optimal scaling laws, in the sense of matching lower and upper bounds on the energy, for a solid undergoing ductile fracture. The specific problem considered concerns a material sample in the form of an infinite slab of finite thickness subjected to prescribed opening displacements on its two surfaces. The solid is assumed to obey deformation-theory of plasticity and, in order to further simplify the analysis, we assume isotropic rigid-plastic deformations with zero plastic spin. When hardening exponents are given values consistent with observation, the energy is found to exhibit sublinear growth. We regularize the energy through the addition of nonlocal energy terms of the strain-gradient plasticity type. This nonlocal regularization has the effect of introducing an intrinsic length scale into the energy. We also put forth a physical argument that identifies the intrinsic length and suggests a linear growth of the nonlocal energy. Under these assumptions, ductile fracture emerges as the net result of two competing effects: whereas the sublinear growth of the local energy promotes localization of deformation to failure planes, the nonlocal regularization stabilizes this process, thus resulting in an orderly progression towards failure and a well-defined specific fracture energy. The optimal scaling laws derived here show that ductile fracture results from localization of deformations to void sheets, and that it requires a well-defined energy per unit fracture area. In particular, fractal modes of fracture are ruled out under the assumptions of the analysis. The optimal scaling laws additionally show that ductile fracture is cohesive in nature, i.e., it obeys a well-defined relation between tractions and opening displacements. Finally, the scaling laws supply a link between micromechanical properties and macroscopic fracture properties. In particular, they reveal the relative roles that surface energy and microplasticity play as contributors to the specific fracture energy of the material. Next, we present an experimental assessment of the optimal scaling laws. We show that when the specific fracture energy is renormalized in a manner suggested by the optimal scaling laws, the data falls within the bounds predicted by the analysis and, moreover, they ostensibly collapse---with allowances made for experimental scatter---on a master curve dependent on the hardening exponent, but otherwise material independent.

Optimal guidance of low-thrust interplanetary space vehicles

The low-thrust guidance problem is defined as the minimum terminal variance (MTV) control of a space vehicle subjected to random perturbations of its trajectory. To accomplish this control task, only bounded thrust level and thrust angle deviations are allowed, and these must be calculated based solely on the information gained from noisy, partial observations of the state. In order to establish the validity of various approximations, the problem is first investigated under the idealized conditions of perfect state information and negligible dynamic errors. To check each approximate model, an algorithm is developed to facilitate the computation of the open loop trajectories for the nonlinear bang-bang system. Using the results of this phase in conjunction with the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a model for the random inputs to the system, the MTV guidance problem is reformulated as a stochastic, bang-bang, optimal control problem. Since a complete analytic solution seems to be unattainable, asymptotic solutions are developed by numerical methods. However, it is shown analytically that a Kalman filter in cascade with an appropriate nonlinear MTV controller is an optimal configuration. The resulting system is simulated using the Monte Carlo technique and is compared to other guidance schemes of current interest.

Probabilistic robust control : theory and applications

In this work, the development of a probabilistic approach to robust control is motivated by structural control applications in civil engineering. Often in civil structural applications, a system's performance is specified in terms of its reliability. In addition, the model and input uncertainty for the system may be described most appropriately using probabilistic or "soft" bounds on the model and input sets. The probabilistic robust control methodology contrasts with existing H∞/μ robust control methodologies that do not use probability information for the model and input uncertainty sets, yielding only the guaranteed (i.e., "worst-case") system performance, and no information about the system's probable performance which would be of interest to civil engineers.

The design objective for the probabilistic robust controller is to maximize the reliability of the uncertain structure/controller system for a probabilistically-described uncertain excitation. The robust performance is computed for a set of possible models by weighting the conditional performance probability for a particular model by the probability of that model, then integrating over the set of possible models. This integration is accomplished efficiently using an asymptotic approximation. The probable performance can be optimized numerically over the class of allowable controllers to find the optimal controller. Also, if structural response data becomes available from a controlled structure, its probable performance can easily be updated using Bayes's Theorem to update the probability distribution over the set of possible models. An updated optimal controller can then be produced, if desired, by following the original procedure. Thus, the probabilistic framework integrates system identification and robust control in a natural manner.

The probabilistic robust control methodology is applied to two systems in this thesis. The first is a high-fidelity computer model of a benchmark structural control laboratory experiment. For this application, uncertainty in the input model only is considered. The probabilistic control design minimizes the failure probability of the benchmark system while remaining robust with respect to the input model uncertainty. The performance of an optimal low-order controller compares favorably with higher-order controllers for the same benchmark system which are based on other approaches. The second application is to the Caltech Flexible Structure, which is a light-weight aluminum truss structure actuated by three voice coil actuators. A controller is designed to minimize the failure probability for a nominal model of this system. Furthermore, the method for updating the model-based performance calculation given new response data from the system is illustrated.

Accelerogram processing using reliability bounds and optimal correction methods

This study addresses the problem of obtaining reliable velocities and displacements from accelerograms, a concern which often arises in earthquake engineering. A closed-form acceleration expression with random parameters is developed to test any strong-motion accelerogram processing method. Integration of this analytical time history yields the exact velocities, displacements and Fourier spectra. Noise and truncation can also be added. A two-step testing procedure is proposed and the original Volume II routine is used as an illustration. The main sources of error are identified and discussed. Although these errors may be reduced, it is impossible to extract the true time histories from an analog or digital accelerogram because of the uncertain noise level and missing data. Based on these uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is proposed as a new accelerogram processing method. A most probable record is presented as well as a reliability interval which reflects the level of error-uncertainty introduced by the recording and digitization process. The data is processed in the frequency domain, under assumptions governing either the initial value or the temporal mean of the time histories. This new processing approach is tested on synthetic records. It induces little error and the digitization noise is adequately bounded. Filtering is intended to be kept to a minimum and two optimal error-reduction methods are proposed. The "noise filters" reduce the noise level at each harmonic of the spectrum as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio. However, the correction at low frequencies is not sufficient to significantly reduce the drifts in the integrated time histories. The "spectral substitution method" uses optimization techniques to fit spectral models of near-field, far-field or structural motions to the amplitude spectrum of the measured data. The extremes of the spectrum of the recorded data where noise and error prevail are then partly altered, but not removed, and statistical criteria provide the choice of the appropriate cutoff frequencies. This correction method has been applied to existing strong-motion far-field, near-field and structural data with promising results. Since this correction method maintains the whole frequency range of the record, it should prove to be very useful in studying the long-period dynamics of local geology and structures.

Neural network design for switching network control

A neural network is a highly interconnected set of simple processors. The many connections allow information to travel rapidly through the network, and due to their simplicity, many processors in one network are feasible. Together these properties imply that we can build efficient massively parallel machines using neural networks. The primary problem is how do we specify the interconnections in a neural network. The various approaches developed so far such as outer product, learning algorithm, or energy function suffer from the following deficiencies: long training/ specification times; not guaranteed to work on all inputs; requires full connectivity.

Alternatively we discuss methods of using the topology and constraints of the problems themselves to design the topology and connections of the neural solution. We define several useful circuits-generalizations of the Winner-Take-All circuitthat allows us to incorporate constraints using feedback in a controlled manner. These circuits are proven to be stable, and to only converge on valid states. We use the Hopfield electronic model since this is close to an actual implementation. We also discuss methods for incorporating these circuits into larger systems, neural and nonneural. By exploiting regularities in our definition, we can construct efficient networks. To demonstrate the methods, we look to three problems from communications. We first discuss two applications to problems from circuit switching; finding routes in large multistage switches, and the call rearrangement problem. These show both, how we can use many neurons to build massively parallel machines, and how the Winner-Take-All circuits can simplify our designs.

Next we develop a solution to the contention arbitration problem of high-speed packet switches. We define a useful class of switching networks and then design a neural network to solve the contention arbitration problem for this class. Various aspects of the neural network/switch system are analyzed to measure the queueing performance of this method. Using the basic design, a feasible architecture for a large (1024-input) ATM packet switch is presented. Using the massive parallelism of neural networks, we can consider algorithms that were previously computationally unattainable. These now viable algorithms lead us to new perspectives on switch design.

Design and analysis of nucleic acid reaction pathways

Nucleic acids are a useful substrate for engineering at the molecular level. Designing the detailed energetics and kinetics of interactions between nucleic acid strands remains a challenge. Building on previous algorithms to characterize the ensemble of dilute solutions of nucleic acids, we present a design algorithm that allows optimization of structural features and binding energetics of a test tube of interacting nucleic acid strands. We extend this formulation to handle multiple thermodynamic states and combinatorial constraints to allow optimization of pathways of interacting nucleic acids. In both design strategies, low-cost estimates to thermodynamic properties are calculated using hierarchical ensemble decomposition and test tube ensemble focusing. These algorithms are tested on randomized test sets and on example pathways drawn from the molecular programming literature. To analyze the kinetic properties of designed sequences, we describe algorithms to identify dominant species and kinetic rates using coarse-graining at the scale of a small box containing several strands or a large box containing a dilute solution of strands.

Computational design of self-assembling proteins and protein-DNA nanowires

Computational protein design (CPD) is a burgeoning field that uses a physical-chemical or knowledge-based scoring function to create protein variants with new or improved properties. This exciting approach has recently been used to generate proteins with entirely new functions, ones that are not observed in naturally occurring proteins. For example, several enzymes were designed to catalyze reactions that are not in the repertoire of any known natural enzyme. In these designs, novel catalytic activity was built de novo (from scratch) into a previously inert protein scaffold. In addition to de novo enzyme design, the computational design of protein-protein interactions can also be used to create novel functionality, such as neutralization of influenza. Our goal here was to design a protein that can self-assemble with DNA into nanowires. We used computational tools to homodimerize a transcription factor that binds a specific sequence of double-stranded DNA. We arranged the protein-protein and protein-DNA binding sites so that the self-assembly could occur in a linear fashion to generate nanowires. Upon mixing our designed protein homodimer with the double-stranded DNA, the molecules immediately self-assembled into nanowires. This nanowire topology was confirmed using atomic force microscopy. Co-crystal structure showed that the nanowire is assembled via the desired interactions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of a protein-DNA self-assembly that does not rely on covalent interactions. We anticipate that this new material will stimulate further interest in the development of advanced biomaterials.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Design, synthesis, and biological activity of rhodium metalloinsertors

Deficiencies in the mismatch repair (MMR) pathway are associated with several types of cancers, as well as resistance to commonly used chemotherapeutics. Rhodium metalloinsertors have been found to bind DNA mismatches with high affinity and specificity in vitro, and also exhibit cell-selective cytotoxicity, targeting MMR-deficient cells over MMR-proficient cells.

Here we examine the biological fate of rhodium metalloinsertors bearing dipyridylamine ancillary ligands. These complexes are shown to exhibit accelerated cellular uptake which permits the observation of various cellular responses, including disruption of the cell cycle and induction of necrosis, which occur preferentially in the MMR-deficient cell line. These cellular responses provide insight into the mechanisms underlying the selective activity of this novel class of targeted anti-cancer agents.

In addition, ten distinct metalloinsertors with varying lipophilicities are synthesized and their mismatch binding affinities and biological activities studied. While they are found to have similar binding affinities, their cell-selective antiproliferative and cytotoxic activities vary significantly. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) experiments show that all of these metalloinsertors localize in the nucleus at sufficient concentrations for binding to DNA mismatches. Furthermore, metalloinsertors with high rhodium localization in the mitochondria show toxicity that is not selective for MMR-deficient cells. This work supports the notion that specific targeting of the metalloinsertors to nuclear DNA gives rise to their cytotoxic and antiproliferative activities that are selective for cells deficient in MMR.

To explore further the basis of the unique selectivity of the metlloinsertors in targeting MMR-deficient cells, experiments were conducted using engineered NCI-H23 lung adenocarcinoma cells that contain a doxycycline-inducible shRNA which suppresses the expression of the MMR gene MLH1. Here we use this new cell line to further validate rhodium metalloinsertors as compounds capable of differentially inhibiting the proliferation of MMR-deficient cancer cells over isogenic MMR-proficient cells. General DNA damaging agents, such as cisplatin and etoposide, in contrast, are less effective in the induced cell line defective in MMR.

Finally, we describe a new subclass of metalloinsertors with enhanced potency and selectivity, in which the complexes show Rh-O coordination. In particular, it has been found that both Δ and Λ enantiomers of [Rh(chrysi)(phen)(DPE)]²⁺ bind to DNA with similar affinities, suggesting a possible different binding conformation than previous metalloinsertors. Remarkably, all members of this new family of compounds have significantly increased potency in a range of cellular assays; indeed, all are more potent than the FDA-approved anticancer drugs cisplatin and MNNG. Moreover, these activities are coupled with high levels of selectivity for MMR-deficient cells.

Efficient methods for stochastic optimal control

The Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is central to stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory, yielding the optimal solution to general problems specified by known dynamics and a specified cost functional. Given the assumption of quadratic cost on the control input, it is well known that the HJB reduces to a particular partial differential equation (PDE). While powerful, this reduction is not commonly used as the PDE is of second order, is nonlinear, and examples exist where the problem may not have a solution in a classical sense. Furthermore, each state of the system appears as another dimension of the PDE, giving rise to the curse of dimensionality. Since the number of degrees of freedom required to solve the optimal control problem grows exponentially with dimension, the problem becomes intractable for systems with all but modest dimension.

In the last decade researchers have found that under certain, fairly non-restrictive structural assumptions, the HJB may be transformed into a linear PDE, with an interesting analogue in the discretized domain of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). The work presented in this thesis uses the linearity of this particular form of the HJB PDE to push the computational boundaries of stochastic optimal control.

This is done by crafting together previously disjoint lines of research in computation. The first of these is the use of Sum of Squares (SOS) techniques for synthesis of control policies. A candidate polynomial with variable coefficients is proposed as the solution to the stochastic optimal control problem. An SOS relaxation is then taken to the partial differential constraints, leading to a hierarchy of semidefinite relaxations with improving sub-optimality gap. The resulting approximate solutions are shown to be guaranteed over- and under-approximations for the optimal value function. It is shown that these results extend to arbitrary parabolic and elliptic PDEs, yielding a novel method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of systems governed by partial differential constraints. Domain decomposition techniques are also made available, allowing for such problems to be solved via parallelization and low-order polynomials.

The optimization-based SOS technique is then contrasted with the Separated Representation (SR) approach from the applied mathematics community. The technique allows for systems of equations to be solved through a low-rank decomposition that results in algorithms that scale linearly with dimensionality. Its application in stochastic optimal control allows for previously uncomputable problems to be solved quickly, scaling to such complex systems as the Quadcopter and VTOL aircraft. This technique may be combined with the SOS approach, yielding not only a numerical technique, but also an analytical one that allows for entirely new classes of systems to be studied and for stability properties to be guaranteed.

The analysis of the linear HJB is completed by the study of its implications in application. It is shown that the HJB and a popular technique in robotics, the use of navigation functions, sit on opposite ends of a spectrum of optimization problems, upon which tradeoffs may be made in problem complexity. Analytical solutions to the HJB in these settings are available in simplified domains, yielding guidance towards optimality for approximation schemes. Finally, the use of HJB equations in temporal multi-task planning problems is investigated. It is demonstrated that such problems are reducible to a sequence of SOC problems linked via boundary conditions. The linearity of the PDE allows us to pre-compute control policy primitives and then compose them, at essentially zero cost, to satisfy a complex temporal logic specification.