943 resultados para Crash Predictions
Resumo:
Invasion waves of cells play an important role in development, disease and repair. Standard discrete models of such processes typically involve simulating cell motility, cell proliferation and cell-to-cell crowding effects in a lattice-based framework. The continuum-limit description is often given by a reaction–diffusion equation that is related to the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. One of the limitations of a standard lattice-based approach is that real cells move and proliferate in continuous space and are not restricted to a predefined lattice structure. We present a lattice-free model of cell motility and proliferation, with cell-to-cell crowding effects, and we use the model to replicate invasion wave-type behaviour. The continuum-limit description of the discrete model is a reaction–diffusion equation with a proliferation term that is different from lattice-based models. Comparing lattice based and lattice-free simulations indicates that both models lead to invasion fronts that are similar at the leading edge, where the cell density is low. Conversely, the two models make different predictions in the high density region of the domain, well behind the leading edge. We analyse the continuum-limit description of the lattice based and lattice-free models to show that both give rise to invasion wave type solutions that move with the same speed but have very different shapes. We explore the significance of these differences by calibrating the parameters in the standard Fisher–Kolmogorov equation using data from the lattice-free model. We conclude that estimating parameters using this kind of standard procedure can produce misleading results.
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Genomics and genetic findings have been hailed with promises of unlocked codes and new frontiers of personalized medicine. Despite cautions about gene hype, the strong cultural pull of genes and genomics has allowed consideration of genomic personhood. Populated by the complicated records of mass spectrometer, proteomics, which studies the human protein, has not achieved either the funding or the popular cultural appeal proteomics scientists had hoped it would. While proteomics, being focused on the proteins that actually indicate and create disease states, has a more direct potential for clinical applications than genomic risk predictions, culturally, it has not provided the material for identity creation. In our ethnographic research, we explore how proteomic scientists attempting to shape an appeal to personhood through which legitimacy may be defined.
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This thesis studies the water resources of Laidley Creek catchment within the Lockyer Valley where groundwater is used for intensive irrigation of crops. A holistic approach was used to consider groundwater within the total water cycle. The project mapped the geology, measured stream flows and groundwater levels, and analysed the chemistry of the waters. These data were integrated within a catchment-wide conceptual model, including historic and rainfall records. From this a numerical simulation was produced to test data validity and develop predictions of behaviour, which can support management decisions, particularly in times of variable climate.
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Groundwater flow models are usually characterized as being either transient flow models or steady state flow models. Given that steady state groundwater flow conditions arise as a long time asymptotic limit of a particular transient response, it is natural for us to seek a finite estimate of the amount of time required for a particular transient flow problem to effectively reach steady state. Here, we introduce the concept of mean action time (MAT) to address a fundamental question: How long does it take for a groundwater recharge process or discharge processes to effectively reach steady state? This concept relies on identifying a cumulative distribution function, $F(t;x)$, which varies from $F(0;x)=0$ to $F(t;x) \to \infty$ as $t\to \infty$, thereby providing us with a measurement of the progress of the system towards steady state. The MAT corresponds to the mean of the associated probability density function $f(t;x) = \dfrac{dF}{dt}$, and we demonstrate that this framework provides useful analytical insight by explicitly showing how the MAT depends on the parameters in the model and the geometry of the problem. Additional theoretical results relating to the variance of $f(t;x)$, known as the variance of action time (VAT), are also presented. To test our theoretical predictions we include measurements from a laboratory–scale experiment describing flow through a homogeneous porous medium. The laboratory data confirms that the theoretical MAT predictions are in good agreement with measurements from the physical model.
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Road safety barriers are used to redirect traffic at roadside work-zones. When filled with water, these barriers are able to withstand low to moderate impact speeds up to 50kmh-1. Despite this feature, there are challenges when using portable water-filled barriers (PWFBs) such as large lateral displacements as well as tearing and breakage during impact, especially at higher speeds. In this study, the authors explore the use of composite action to enhance the crashworthiness of PWFBs and enable their use at higher speeds. Initially, we investigated the energy absorption capability of water in PWFB. Then, we considered the composite action of a PWFB with the introduction of a steel frame to evaluate its impact on performance. Findings of the study show that the initial height of impact must be lower than the free surface level of water in a PWFB for the water to provide significant crash energy absorption. In general, impact of a road barrier that is 80% filled is a good estimation. Furthermore, the addition of a composite structure greatly reduces the probability of tearing by decreasing the strain and impact energy transferred to the shell container. This allows the water to remain longer in the barrier to absorb energy via inertial displacement and sloshing response. Information from this research will aid in the design of next generation roadside safety structures aimed to increase safety on modern roadways.
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Establishing a persistent presence in the ocean with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) capable of observing temporal variability of large-scale ocean processes requires a unique sensor platform. In this paper, we examine the utility of vehicles that can only control their depth in the water column for such extended deployments. We present a strategy that utilizes ocean model predictions to facilitate a basic level of autonomy and enables general control for these profiling floats. The proposed method is based on experimentally validated techniques for utilizing ocean current models to control autonomous gliders. With the appropriate vertical actuation, and utilizing spatio–temporal variations in water speed and direction, we show that general controllability results can be met. First, we apply an A* planner to a local controllability map generated from predictions of ocean currents. This computes a path between start and goal waypoints that has the highest likelihood of successful execution. A computed depth plan is generated with a model-predictive controller (MPC), and selects the depths for the vehicle so that ambient currents guide it toward the goal. Mission constraints are included to simulate and motivate a practical data collection mission. Results are presented in simulation for a mission off the coast of Los Angeles, CA, USA, that show encouraging results in the ability of a drifting vehicle to reach a desired location.
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Road surface skid resistance has been shown to have a strong relationship to road crash risk, however, applying the current method of using investigatory levels to identify crash prone roads is problematic as they may fail in identifying risky roads outside of the norm. The proposed method analyses a complex and formerly impenetrable volume of data from roads and crashes using data mining. This method rapidly identifies roads with elevated crash-rate, potentially due to skid resistance deficit, for investigation. A hypothetical skid resistance/crash risk curve is developed for each road segment, driven by the model deployed in a novel regression tree extrapolation method. The method potentially solves the problem of missing skid resistance values which occurs during network-wide crash analysis, and allows risk assessment of the major proportion of roads without skid resistance values.
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The positive relationship between speed and crash risk and severity is robust and well-established. While excessive speeding is typically regarded by the public as a common contributing factor in road crashes, speeding remains a common traffic infringement and an arguably socially acceptable behaviour, particularly at low levels over the speed limit. This suggests that other factors potentially contribute to this disparity between crash perceptions and actual behaviours. Previous work has described associations between perceptions of the legitimacy of speed enforcement, attitudes, and how they relate to the likelihood of speeding. This study sought to more closely examine the nature of the relationships between these variables. In total, 293 Queensland drivers participated in a study that examined how demographics, personality variables, attitudes, and perceptions of the legitimacy of enforcement contributed to drivers’ self-reported likelihood of speeding. Results suggested that positive attitudes towards speeding had the greatest impact on likelihood of speeding behaviours. Being younger and higher levels of the personality trait of extraversion were also associated with greater levels of self-reported likelihood of speeding. Attitudes were found to mediate the relationship between perceived legitimacy of speed enforcement and self-reported likelihood of speeding. A subgroup analysis of participants with positive and negative attitudes towards speeding revealed that a differential set of variables were predictive of self-reported likelihood of speeding for the two subgroups. This highlights the potential importance of attitudes in understanding the influence of perceptions of legitimacy of speed enforcement on speeding behaviour, and the need for targeted rather than a ‘one size fits all’ approach to changing attitudes and ultimately behaviour. The findings of the current study help to further understand why some drivers continue to speed.
Resumo:
Driver sleepiness is a substantial crash risk factor and as such, is a major contributor to crash statistics. A number of individual factors (i.e., psychological factors) have been suggested to influence driving while sleepy. However, few studies have examined the influence of these individual factors for sleepy driving in combination. The current study sought to examine how various demographic factors, attitudes, perceived legitimacy, personality constructs, and risk taking variables were associated with self-reported likelihood of driving sleepy and pulling over and resting when sleepy. The results show that being a younger driver, having positive attitudes towards driving sleepy, and high levels of emotional stability were related to self-reported likelihood of driving sleepy. Whereas, being an older driver and having negative attitudes towards driving sleepy were associated with self-reported likelihood of pulling over and resting when sleepy. Overall, the obtained results suggest that the age and attitudes of the driver have greater influence than personality traits or risk taking factors. Campaigns focused on changing attitudes to reflect the dangerousness of sleepy driving could be important for road safety outcomes.
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Background: Random Breath Testing (RBT) is the main drink driving law enforcement tool used throughout Australia. International comparative research considers Australia to have the most successful RBT program compared to other countries in terms of crash reductions (Erke, Goldenbeld, & Vaa, 2009). This success is attributed to the programs high intensity (Erke et al., 2009). Our review of the extant literature suggests that there is no research evidence that indicates an optimal level of alcohol breath testing. That is, we suggest that no research exists to guide policy regarding whether or not there is a point at which alcohol related crashes reach a point of diminishing returns as a result of either saturated or targeted RBT testing. Aims: In this paper we first provide an examination of RBTs and alcohol related crashes across Australian jurisdictions. We then address the question of whether or not an optimal level of random breath testing exists by examining the relationship between the number of RBTs conducted and the occurrence of alcohol-related crashes over time, across all Australian states. Method: To examine the association between RBT rates and alcohol related crashes and to assess whether an optimal ratio of RBT tests per licenced drivers can be determined we draw on three administrative data sources form each jurisdiction. Where possible data collected spans January 1st 2000 to September 30th 2012. The RBT administrative dataset includes the number of Random Breath Tests (RBTs) conducted per month. The traffic crash administrative dataset contains aggregated monthly count of the number of traffic crashes where an individual’s recorded BAC reaches or exceeds 0.05g/ml of alcohol in blood. The licenced driver data were the monthly number of registered licenced drivers spanning January 2000 to December 2011. Results: The data highlights that the Australian story does not reflective of all States and territories. The stable RBT to licenced driver ratio in Queensland (of 1:1) suggests a stable rate of alcohol related crash data of 5.5 per 100,000 licenced drivers. Yet, in South Australia were a relative stable rate of RBT to licenced driver ratio of 1:2 is maintained the rate of alcohol related traffic crashes is substantially less at 3.7 per 100,000. We use joinpoint regression techniques and varying regression models to fit the data and compare the different patterns between jurisdictions. Discussion: The results of this study provide an updated review and evaluation of RBTs conducted in Australia and examines the association between RBTs and alcohol related traffic crashes. We also present an evidence base to guide policy decisions for RBT operations.
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The process of building safer roads and roadsides needs to be managed to minimise risks to both the road using public and roadworkers. However, detailed and accurate data on fatalities and injuries at roadworks across Australia are not available. The lack of reliable safety records and consequent poor understanding of the hazards at roadworks motivated this research to examine the common trends in incidents and to understand workers' perceptions of the causes of incidents at roadworks. To achieve these aims, 66 roadworks personnel were interviewed in Queensland including road construction workers, traffic controllers, engineers, and managers. Qualitative analyses identified several major issues and themes. Vehicles driving into work areas, traffic controllers hit by vehicles, rear end crashes at roadwork approaches, and reversing incidents involving work vehicles and machinery were the most common types of incidents. Roadworkers perceived driver errors, such as violation of speed limits, distracted driving, and ignoring signage and traffic controllers' instructions as the main causes of the incidents.
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The existing literature shows driving speed significantly affects levels of safety, emissions, and stress in driving. In addition, drivers who feel tense when driving have been found to drive more slowly than others. These findings were mostly obtained from crash data analyses or field studies, and less is known regarding driver perceptions of the extent to which reducing their driving speed would improve road safety, reduce their car’s emissions, and reduce stress and road rage. This paper uses ordered probit regression models to analyse responses from 3538 Queensland drivers who completed an online RACQ survey. Drivers most strongly agreed that reducing their driving speed would improve road safety, less strongly agreed that reducing their driving speed would reduce their car’s emissions and least strongly agreed that reducing their driving speed would reduce stress and road rage. Younger drivers less strongly agreed that these benefits would occur than older drivers. Drivers of automatic cars and those who are bicycle commuters agreed more to these benefits than other drivers. Female drivers agreed more strongly than males on improving safety and reducing stress and road rage. Type of fuel used, engine size, driving experience, and distance driven per week were also found to be associated with driver perceptions, although these were not found to be significant in all of the regression models. The findings from this study may help in developing targeted training or educational measures to improve drivers’ willingness to reduce their driving speed.
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The importance of applying unsaturated soil mechanics to geotechnical engineering design has been well understood. However, the consumption of time and the necessity for a specific laboratory testing apparatus when measuring unsaturated soil properties have limited the application of unsaturated soil mechanics theories in practice. Although methods for predicting unsaturated soil properties have been developed, the verification of these methods for a wide range of soil types is required in order to increase the confidence of practicing engineers in using these methods. In this study, a new permeameter was developed to measure the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils using the steady-state method and directly measured suction (negative pore-water pressure) values. The apparatus is instrumented with two tensiometers for the direct measurement of suction during the tests. The apparatus can be used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity function of sandy soil over a low suction range (0-10 kPa). Firstly, the repeatability of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measurement, using the new permeameter, was verified by conducting tests on two identical sandy soil specimens and obtaining similar results. The hydraulic conductivity functions of the two sandy soils were then measured during the drying and wetting processes of the soils. A significant hysteresis was observed when the hydraulic conductivity was plotted against the suction. However, the hysteresis effects were not apparent when the conductivity was plotted against the volumetric water content. Furthermore, the measured unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions were compared with predictions using three different predictive methods that are widely incorporated into numerical software. The results suggest that these predictive methods are capable of capturing the measured behavior with reasonable agreement.
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Evidence-based practice in entrepreneurship requires effective communication of research findings. We focus on how research synopses can “promote” research to entrepreneurs. Drawing on marketing communications literature, we examine how message characteristics of research synopses affect their appeal. We demonstrate the utility of conjoint analysis in this context and find message length, media richness and source credibility to have positive influences. We find mixed support for a hypothesized negative influence of jargon, and for our predictions that participants’ involvement with academic research moderates these effects. Exploratory analyses reveal latent classes of entrepreneurs with differing preferences, particularly for message length and jargon.
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Theoretical Background and research questions/hypothesis: Recently, throughout Australasia, humorous appeals have become implemented increasingly in health advertising despite limited evidence regarding the persuasiveness of different types of humour. Of those studies available which have examined the persuasiveness of humorous messages, the type of humour is often not defined so it is unclear what type of humour is being examined. Speck’s (1991) typology includes five types of humour; comic wit, sentimental humour, satire, sentimental comedy, and full comedy. Each type of humour is based on one or more humour generation processes; namely, incongruity-resolution, disparagement humour, and arousal-safety. It has been acknowledged that more research is needed to determine the relative persuasiveness of these different types of humour and to identify those types which may be most effective for health advertising. The current research explored individuals’ thoughts about, and their responses to some different types of, humorous messages addressing the serious health topic of road safety. Methods: A preliminary qualitative, study was conducted involving discussions with licensed drivers (N = 18) regarding their thoughts and feelings about humorous road safety messages in general as well as in response to some (5 in total) pre-existing advertisements. Men (n = 10) and women of younger and older age groups (17-24 or 25+ years) participated in one of six discussions. Participants were recruited from an existing community-based database held by the authors’ Research Centre or were approached directly on the university campus. Ethical approval was gained for the study. Each participant was offered $AUD40. A semi-structured interview schedule guided the discussion (e.g., was it humorous?, would this ad influence you?). Audio-recordings of the discussions were professionally transcribed and the transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. Results: The findings revealed that, irrespective of age and gender, humour that was clever, incorporated something unexpected and contrasting with the everyday, was a preferred and relevant approach, thus aligning with incongruity-based theories of humour generation and humour types, such as comic wit and satire. As a persuasive function, humorous messages were considered likely to be talked about (and relatively more so than traditional fear-based approaches). Participants also felt that humorous messages would need to be used cautiously as humour that was considered inappropriate and/or associated with serious occurrences, such as a crash, would be unlikely to persuade. Conclusions: The findings highlight some of the potential benefits of using humour, such as increasing the extent to which an advertisement is talked about as well as the types of humour which may be effective in this context. Implications for research and/or practice: While this research has provided important insight, future research which quantitatively assesses the persuasive effects of different types of humorous road safety messages within a larger, representative sample is needed. This current study has highlighted some humorous approaches which may hold persuasive promise in encouraging individuals to adopt safer attitudes and behaviours not only on the road, but in relation to serious health issues more broadly.