Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters

Ensemble clustering (EC) can arise in data assimilation with ensemble square root filters (EnSRFs) using non-linear models: an M-member ensemble splits into a single outlier and a cluster of M−1 members. The stochastic Ensemble Kalman Filter does not present this problem. Modifications to the EnSRFs by a periodic resampling of the ensemble through random rotations have been proposed to address it. We introduce a metric to quantify the presence of EC and present evidence to dispel the notion that EC leads to filter failure. Starting from a univariate model, we show that EC is not a permanent but transient phenomenon; it occurs intermittently in non-linear models. We perform a series of data assimilation experiments using a standard EnSRF and a modified EnSRF by a resampling though random rotations. The modified EnSRF thus alleviates issues associated with EC at the cost of traceability of individual ensemble trajectories and cannot use some of algorithms that enhance performance of standard EnSRF. In the non-linear regimes of low-dimensional models, the analysis root mean square error of the standard EnSRF slowly grows with ensemble size if the size is larger than the dimension of the model state. However, we do not observe this problem in a more complex model that uses an ensemble size much smaller than the dimension of the model state, along with inflation and localisation. Overall, we find that transient EC does not handicap the performance of the standard EnSRF.

Ventilation in a street canyon under diurnal heating conditions

To study the thermal effects on airflow in a street canyon under real heating conditions (due to diurnal solar radiation), a one-way static approach combining an urban canopy model and CFD is proposed in this paper. An urban canopy model was developed to calculate the individual temperatures of surfaces in the street canyon. The calculated surface temperature may be used as a thermal boundary for CFD simulation. The reliability of this model was validated against a field experiment in Harbin, China. Using the coupling calculation method, the wind flow and air exchange process inside an idealized street canyon was studied. The simulation results show that the thermal effect has significant impacts on the transfer process in the street canyon, especially when the approaching wind is weak. Under a real diurnal thermal forcing, the flow structure within the street canyon changes from one primary vortex to two counter-rotating vortices. The change of transfer process, induced by the buoyancy force, was determined by the thermal condition of all surfaces rather than a single one. Key words: thermal effect, street canyon, numerical simulation, transfer process, diurnal heating.

Drivers of increased soil respiration in a poplar coppice exposed to elevated CO2

Background and Aims. The response of soil respiration (SR) to elevated CO2 is driven by a number of processes and feedbacks. This work aims to i) detect the effect of elevated CO2 on soil respiration during the second rotation of a short rotation forest, at two levels of N availability; and ii) identify the main drivers behind any changes in soil respiration. Methods. A poplar plantation (POP-EUROFACE) was grown for two rotations of three years under elevated CO2 maintained by a FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment) technique. Root biomass, litter production and soil respiration were followed for two consecutive years after coppice. Results. In the plantation, the stimulation of fine root and litter production under elevated CO2 observed at the beginning of the rotation declined over time. Soil respiration (SR) was continuously stimulated by elevated CO2, with a much larger enhancement during the growing (up to 111 %) than in the dormant season (40 %). The SR increase at first appeared to be due to the increase in fine root biomass, but at the end of the 2nd rotation was supported by litter decomposition and the availability of labile C. Soil respiration increase under elevated CO2 was not affected by N availability. Conclusions. The stimulation of SR by elevated CO2 was sustained by the decomposition of above and belowground litter and by the greater availability of easily decomposable substrates into the soil. C losses through SR were greater in the last year of the plantation due to a lack of effect of elevated CO2 on C allocation to roots, reducing the potential for C accumulation.

To what extent are EU steel companies susceptible to competitive loss due to climate policy?

In recognition of their competitive vulnerability, a set of special rules have been devised for managing sectors such as steel and cement within the EU ETS. These rules basically seek to set sector specific performance benchmarks and reward top performers. However, the steel sector as a whole will receive the vast majority of its allowances for free in Phase III. Perceptions of competitive vulnerability have been largely based on inherently hypothetical analyses which rely heavily on counterfactual scenario and abatement cost estimates often provided by firms themselves. This paper diverges from these approaches by providing a qualitative assessment of the two key reasons underpinning the competitive vulnerability argument of the EU Steel Companies based on interviews and case study involving the three largest producers of steel within the EU – AcerlorMittal, Corus, and ThyssenKrupp. We find that these arguments provide only partial and weak justifications for competitive loss and discriminatory treatment in the EUETS. This strategy is difficult to counter by governments due to information asymmetry; and it appears to have proved very successful insofar as it has helped the industry to achieve free allocation in Phases I-III of EU ETS by playing up the risk of carbon leakage.

‘Purpose’ as a way of helping white trainee history teachers engage with diversity issues

Based on a three year action research project, this study examines one strand of that research, namely the impact that ‘purpose’, i.e. exploring the range of rationales for studying a subject, has in helping white trainee teachers embrace cultural and ethnic diversity within their teaching. Through ‘purpose’ trainees explored different reasons why history should be taught (and by implication what content should be taught and how it should be taught) and the relationship of these reasons to diversity. Focusing on ‘purpose’ appears to have a positive impact on many trainees from white, mono-ethnic backgrounds, enabling them to bring diversity into the school curriculum, in this case history teaching. It offers one way to counter concerns about issues of ‘whiteness’ in the teaching profession and by teaching a more relevant curriculum has a potential positive impact on the achievement of students from minority ethnic backgrounds.

Complexes of NiX2 (X=Cl− and NO3−) with a NNO donor Schiff base: anion dependent structural variations and spectroscopic behaviour

Two new nickel(11) complexes, [NiLL'(H2O)(2)Cl] (1) and [{NiLL'(H2O)](2)(mu-H)]NO3·H2O(2), have been synthesized using a tridentate Schiff base ligand, HL, 2-[(2-dimethylamino-ethylimino)-methyl]-phenol, along with Cl- or NO3(-) as an anionic co-ligand or counter anion (where L'H = salicylaldehyde). Both complexes have been characterized by X-ray crystallography. The structural analyses reveal that complex 1 is mononuclear whereas 2 is a hydrogen-bridged dinuclear complex. The Ni(II) ions possess a distorted octahedral geometry in both structures. Both complexes show negative solvatochromic behaviour with increasing donor number (DN) of the solvent. In more coordinating solvents, like DMSO or methanol, the colour of the solutions is green, whereas in less coordinating solvents, like dichloromethane (DCM) or acetonitrile, it is red.

Fenced in: Common property struggles in the management of communal rangelands in central Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

This paper takes as its starting point the assertion that current rangeland management in the central Eastern Cape Province (former Ciskei) of South Africa, is characterised primarily by an ‘open access’ approach. Empirical material drawn from three case-study communities in the region is used to examine the main barriers to management of rangeland as a ‘commons’. The general inability to define and enforce rights to particular grazing resourses in the face of competing claims from ‘outsiders’, as well as inadequate local institutions responsible for rangeland management are highlighted as being of key importance. These are often exacerbated by lack of available grazing land, diffuse user groups and local political and ethnic divisions. Many of these problems have a strong legacy in historical apartheid policies such as forced resettlement and betterment planning. On this basis it is argued that policy should focus on facilitating the emergence of effective, local institutions for rangeland management. Given the limited grazing available to many communities in the region, a critical aspect of this will be finding ways to legitimise current patterns of extensive resource use, which traverse existing ‘community’ boundaries. However, this runs counter to recent legislation, which strongly links community management with legal ownership of land within strict boundaries often defined through fencing. Finding ways to overcome this apparent disjuncture between theory and policy will be vital for the effective management of common pool grazing resources in the region.

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Networks, agency and (de)stabilisation: the issue of navigation on the River Wye, UK

This paper assesses the way in which an actor network presiding over the management of the River Wye has stabilized through accepting a particular view on the issue of navigation. The paper provides an account of how the network was challenged by a dissonant actor who, through reviving an old company, developed a counter network. It is argued that network stabilization is a form of consensus-building and it is contended that the way in which an issue is defined is crucial in terms of the successful enrolment of actors. The paper illustrates some of the conflicts and complexities encountered in resource planning, suggesting that research of this nature should trace actors back through time as well as through space if dynamics between actors involved in rural planning and management are to be effectively understood.

The spectacle of modernity: blood, microscopes and mirrors in Colonial Tanganyika

The chapter focuses on attempts to change and improve the subjects of the colonial regime in what was the British Protectorate of Tanganyika, contemporary Tanzania. The colonial project in Africa was surrounded by technology, ideology, and representations of modernity based on the application of instrumental rationality. Through the example of colonial practices to control sleeping sickness, it examines how local forms of knowledge and livelihoods were negated and counter-tendencies people generated, offering explanations for the predicament of the human condition consequent upon the colonial experience.

The formation of ice in a long-lived supercooled layer cloud

This article focuses on the characteristics of persistent thin single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We seek to answer two important questions: (i) how does ice continually nucleate and precipitate from these clouds, without the available ice nuclei becoming depleted? (ii) how do the supercooled liquid droplets persist in spite of the net flux of water vapour to the growing ice crystals? These questions are answered quantitatively using in situ and radar observations of a long-lived mixed-phase cloud layer over the Chilbolton Observatory. Doppler radar measurements show that the top 500 m of cloud (the top 250 m of which is mixed-phase, with ice virga beneath) is turbulent and well-mixed, and the liquid water content is adiabatic. This well-mixed layer is bounded above and below by stable layers. This inhibits entrainment of fresh ice nuclei into the cloud layer, yet our in situ and radar observations show that a steady flux of ≈100 m−2s−1 ice crystals fell from the cloud over the course of ∼1 day. Comparing this flux to the concentration of conventional ice nuclei expected to be present within the well-mixed layer, we find that these nuclei would be depleted within less than 1 h. We therefore argue that nucleation in these persistent supercooled clouds is strongly time-dependent in nature, with droplets freezing slowly over many hours, significantly longer than the few seconds residence time of an ice nucleus counter. Once nucleated, the ice crystals are observed to grow primarily by vapour deposition, because of the low liquid water path (21 g m−2) yet vapour-rich environment. Evidence for this comes from high differential reflectivity in the radar observations, and in situ imaging of the crystals. The flux of vapour from liquid to ice is quantified from in situ measurements, and we show that this modest flux (3.3 g m−2h−1) can be readily offset by slow radiative cooling of the layer to space.

Persistent reduced ecosystem respiration after insect disturbance in high elevation forests

Amid a worldwide increase in tree mortality, mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) have led to the death of billions of trees from Mexico to Alaska since 2000. This is predicted to have important carbon, water and energy balance feedbacks on the Earth system. Counter to current projections, we show that on a decadal scale, tree mortality causes no increase in ecosystem respiration from scales of several square metres up to an 84 km2 valley. Rather, we found comparable declines in both gross primary productivity and respiration suggesting little change in net flux, with a transitory recovery of respiration 6–7 years after mortality associated with increased incorporation of leaf litter C into soil organic matter, followed by further decline in years 8–10. The mechanism of the impact of tree mortality caused by these biotic disturbances is consistent with reduced input rather than increased output of carbon.