The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Multiple-project discount rates for cost-benefit analysis in construction projects: A formal risk model for microgeneration renewable energy technologies

The traditional economic approach for appraising the costs and benefits of construction project Net Present Values involves the calculation of net returns for each investment option under different discount rates. An alternative approach consists of multiple-project discount rates based on risk modelling. The example of a portfolio of microgeneration renewable energy technology (MRET) is presented to demonstrate that risks and future available budget for re-investment can be taken into account when setting discount rates for construction project specifications in presence of uncertainty. A formal demonstration is carried out through a reversed intertemporal approach of applied general equilibrium. It is demonstrated that risk and the estimated available budget for future re-investment can be included in the simultaneous assessment of the costs and benefits of multiple projects.

Using meteorological wind data to estimate turbine generation output: a sensitivity analysis

Various studies investigating the future impacts of integrating high levels of renewable energy make use of historical meteorological (met) station data to produce estimates of future generation. Hourly means of 10m horizontal wind are extrapolated to a standard turbine hub height using the wind profile power or log law and used to simulate the hypothetical power output of a turbine at that location; repeating this procedure using many viable locations can produce a picture of future electricity generation. However, the estimate of hub height wind speed is dependent on the choice of the wind shear exponent a or the roughness length z0, and requires a number of simplifying assumptions. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this estimation on generation output using a case study of a met station in West Freugh, Scotland. The results show that the choice of wind shear exponent is a particularly sensitive parameter which can lead to significant variation of estimated hub height wind speed and hence estimated future generation potential of a region.

Evaluation of empirical mode decomposition for event-related potential analysis

Current methods for estimating event-related potentials (ERPs) assume stationarity of the signal. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a data-driven decomposition technique that does not assume stationarity. We evaluated an EMD-based method for estimating the ERP. On simulated data, EMD substantially reduced background EEG while retaining the ERP. EMD-denoised single trials also estimated shape, amplitude, and latency of the ERP better than raw single trials. On experimental data, EMD-denoised trials revealed event-related differences between two conditions (condition A and B) more effectively than trials lowpass filtered at 40 Hz. EMD also revealed event-related differences on both condition A and condition B that were clearer and of longer duration than those revealed by low-pass filtering at 40 Hz. Thus, EMD-based denoising is a promising data-driven, nonstationary method for estimating ERPs and should be investigated further.

Characterisation of the intracellular-glutamate decarboxylase system (GAD): analysis of its function, transcription and role in the acid resistance of various strains of Listeria monocytogenes

The glutamate decarboxylase (GAD) system is important for the acid resistance of Listeria monocytogenes. We previously showed that under acidic conditions, glutamate (Glt)/γ-aminobutyrate (GABA) antiport is impaired in minimal media but not in rich ones, like brain heart infusion. Here we demonstrate that this behavior is more complex and it is subject to strain and medium variation. Despite the impaired Glt/GABA antiport, cells accumulate intracellular GABA (GABA(i)) as a standard response against acid in any medium, and this occurs in all strains tested. Since these systems can occur independently of one another, we refer to them as the extracellular (GAD(e)) and intracellular (GAD(i)) systems. We show here that GAD(i) contributes to acid resistance since in a ΔgadD1D2 mutant, reduced GABA(i) accumulation coincided with a 3.2-log-unit reduction in survival at pH 3.0 compared to that of wild-type strain LO28. Among 20 different strains, the GAD(i) system was found to remove 23.11% ± 18.87% of the protons removed by the overall GAD system. Furthermore, the GAD(i) system is activated at milder pH values (4.5 to 5.0) than the GAD(e) system (pH 4.0 to 4.5), suggesting that GAD(i) is the more responsive of the two and the first line of defense against acid. Through functional genomics, we found a major role for GadD2 in the function of GAD(i), while that of GadD1 was minor. Furthermore, the transcription of the gad genes in three common reference strains (10403S, LO28, and EGD-e) during an acid challenge correlated well with their relative acid sensitivity. No transcriptional upregulation of the gadT2D2 operon, which is the most important component of the GAD system, was observed, while gadD3 transcription was the highest among all gad genes in all strains. In this study, we present a revised model for the function of the GAD system and highlight the important role of GAD(i) in the acid resistance of L. monocytogenes.

Critical success factors in urban brownfield regeneration: an analysis of ‘hardcore’ sites in Manchester and Osaka during the economic recession (2009–10)

Hardcore, or long-term derelict and vacant brownfield sites which are often contaminated, form a significant proportion of brownfield land in many cities, not only in the UK but also in other countries. The recent economic recession has placed the economic viability of such sites in jeopardy. This paper compares the approaches for bringing back hardcore brownfield sites into use in England and Japan by focusing on ten case studies in Manchester and Osaka, using an `agency'-based frame- work. The findings are set in the context of (i) national brownfield and related policy agendas; (ii) recent trends in land and property markets in both England and Japan; and (iii) city-level comparisons of brownfields in Manchester and Osaka. The research, which was conducted during 2009 ^ 10, suggests that hardcore brownfield sites have been badly affected by the recent recession in both Manchester and Osaka. Despite this, not only is there evidence that hardcore sites have been successfully regenerated in both cities, but also that the critical success factors (CSFs) operating in bringing sites back into use share a large degree of commonality. These CSFs include the presence of strong potential markets, seeing the recession as an opportunity, long-term vision, strong branding, strong partnerships, integrated development, and getting infrastructure into place. Finally, the paper outlines the policy implications of the research.

Is there a demand for sustainable offices? An analysis of UK business occupier moves (2006–2008)

‘Sustainable’ or ‘green’ commercial buildings are frequently seen as a growth sector in the property investment market. This research examines the emergence of sustainable commercial buildings in both the UK and overseas. The empirical part of the paper is based on a telephone survey of 50 UK corporate (private sector) occupiers taking leased and owner–occupied office space, which was carried out during the period of April to November 2008. The survey focused on actual moves made within the previous two years, or moves that were imminent during 2006–2008. The research suggests that although there is an emerging and increasing demand for sustainable offices in the UK, other factors such as location and availability of stock continue to remain more important than sustainability in determining occupiers’ final choice of office. Occupiers who moved to a Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM)‐rated building, and were in business sectors with strong environmental and corporate responsibility policies, placed more emphasis on sustainability than other groups in the final choice of office, but location and availability remained paramount.

The property development industry and sustainable urban brownfield regeneration in England: an analysis of case studies in Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester

The property development industry is a key actor in UK brownfield regeneration projects. UK policy has attempted to interlink ‘sustainable development’ and ‘sustainable brownfield’ policy agendas, which have found an additional focus through the UK government’s ‘Sustainable Communities Plan’, part of a growing international emphasis on sustainable development. This paper examines the emergence of these agendas and related policies, and the role of the property development industry in the regeneration of six differing brownfield sites, based in Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester. Using a conceptual framework, the paper investigates aspects of the sustainability of these projects and highlights key lessons from them for both the UK and overseas. The research is based on structured interviews with a variety of stakeholders, including developers, planners, consultants and community representatives to highlight emerging best practice and related policy implications.

Construction management research at the individual-level of analysis: current status, gaps and future directions

Individual-level constructs are seldom taken into consideration in construction management research relating to project performance. This is antithetical to the objectives of properly conceptualizing and contextualizing the research we do because many project performance outcomes, such as the extent of cooperation and level of communication or teamwork are influenced and moderated by individuals’ perceptions, values and behaviour. A brief review of the literature in organizational studies centred on culture, identity, empowerment and trust is offered. These constructs are then explored in relation to project performance issues and outcomes, and it is noted that they are predominantly studied at the project and industry levels. We argue that focusing these constructs at the individual unit of analysis has significant implications for project performance and therefore their effects need to be systematically accounted for in explanations of the success and failure of projects. Far from being prescriptive, the aim is to generate interest and awareness for more focused research at the individual level of analysis in order to add new insights and perspectives to critical performance questions in construction management. To this end, a research agenda is outlined, arguing that construction management research integrating individual-level constructs and broader, macro-contextual issues will help define and enhance the legitimacy of the field.

Bibliographic analysis of persuasive systems: techniques, methods and domains of application

This paper presents findings of our study on peer-reviewed papers published in the International Conference on Persuasive Technology from 2006 to 2010. The study indicated that out of 44 systems reviewed, 23 were reported to be successful, 2 to be unsuccessful and 19 did not specify whether or not it was successful. 56 different techniques were mentioned and it was observed that most designers use ad hoc definitions for techniques or methods used in design. Hence we propose the need for research to establish unambiguous definitions of techniques and methods in the field.

Sequence and phylogenetic analysis of viper venom serine proteases

Snakebites are a major neglected tropical disease responsible for as many as 95000 deaths every year worldwide. Viper venom serine proteases disrupt haemostasis of prey and victims by affecting various stages of the blood coagulation system. A better understanding of their sequence, structure, function and phylogenetic relationships will improve the knowledge on the pathological conditions and aid in the development of novel therapeutics for treating snakebites. A large dataset for all available viper venom serine proteases was developed and analysed to study various features of these enzymes. Despite the large number of venom serine protease sequences available, only a small proportion of these have been functionally characterised. Although, they share some of the common features such as a C-terminal extension, GWG motif and disulphide linkages, they vary widely between each other in features such as isoelectric points, potential N-glycosylation sites and functional characteristics. Some of the serine proteases contain substitutions for one or more of the critical residues in catalytic triad or primary specificity pockets. Phylogenetic analysis clustered all the sequences in three major groups. The sequences with substitutions in catalytic triad or specificity pocket clustered together in separate groups. Our study provides the most complete information on viper venom serine proteases to date and improves the current knowledge on the sequence, structure, function and phylogenetic relationships of these enzymes. This collective analysis of venom serine proteases will help in understanding the complexity of envenomation and potential therapeutic avenues.

Spectral analysis of diffusions with jump boundary

In this paper we consider one-dimensional diffusions with constant coefficients in a finite interval with jump boundary and a certain deterministic jump distribution. We use coupling methods in order to identify the spectral gap in the case of a large drift and prove that there is a threshold drift above which the bottom of the spectrum no longer depends on the drift. As a corollary to our result we are able to answer two questions concerning elliptic eigenvalue problems with non-local boundary conditions formulated previously by Iddo Ben-Ari and Ross Pinsky.

On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts

Reliability analysis of probabilistic forecasts, in particular through the rank histogram or Talagrand diagram, is revisited. Two shortcomings are pointed out: Firstly, a uniform rank histogram is but a necessary condition for reliability. Secondly, if the forecast is assumed to be reliable, an indication is needed how far a histogram is expected to deviate from uniformity merely due to randomness. Concerning the first shortcoming, it is suggested that forecasts be grouped or stratified along suitable criteria, and that reliability is analyzed individually for each forecast stratum. A reliable forecast should have uniform histograms for all individual forecast strata, not only for all forecasts as a whole. As to the second shortcoming, instead of the observed frequencies, the probability of the observed frequency is plotted, providing and indication of the likelihood of the result under the hypothesis that the forecast is reliable. Furthermore, a Goodness-Of-Fit statistic is discussed which is essentially the reliability term of the Ignorance score. The discussed tools are applied to medium range forecasts for 2 m-temperature anomalies at several locations and lead times. The forecasts are stratified along the expected ranked probability score. Those forecasts which feature a high expected score turn out to be particularly unreliable.