Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization`s vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CysView: protein classification based on cysteine pairing patterns

CysView is a web-based application tool that identifies and classifies proteins according to their disulfide connectivity patterns. It accepts a dataset of annotated protein sequences in various formats and returns a graphical representation of cysteine pairing patterns. CysView displays cysteine patterns for those records in the data with disulfide annotations. It allows the viewing of records grouped by connectivity patterns. CysView's utility as an analysis tool was demonstrated by the rapid and correct classification of scorpion toxin entries from GenPept on the basis of their disulfide pairing patterns. It has proved useful for rapid detection of irrelevant and partial records, or those with incomplete annotations. CysView can be used to support distant homology between proteins. CysView is publicly available at http://research.i2r.a-star.edu.sg/CysView/.

Uncommon mechanism of egg incubation in the endemic Southern hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis: how is this phenomenon related to egg production?

The aim of the present work was to characterize the egg production of Loxopagurus loxochelis. A total of 71 ovigerous females were obtained, 28% of which were simultaneously incubating eggs at different developmental stages. This phenomenon can be the result of incomplete fertilization, or may represent a rapid gonadal cycle by this species in this area, which is, to our understanding, the best explanation of this phenomenon. Egg volume decreased 25.6% during the incubation period. The reproductive output based on dry and wet weight was 6.8 and 19.3%, respectively. Water was the prevailing component of the eggs, representing 86.0% of the total weight at initial stage, increasing to 95.1% at the final stage. Ash content increased at the same time as a decrease in the organic content occurred, indicating the consumption of yolk and absorption of salts from the water medium. In conclusion, we hypothesized that this population has the capacity to copulate and deposit another brood even before the release of the larvae from the previous one, intensifying the reproductive effort of these hermit crabs as a strategy of adaptation in a region considered the northern limit of the geographical distribution of this species.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Program sustainability of a community-based intervention to prevent falls among older Australians

Multi-strategy interventions have been demonstrated to prevent falls among older people, but studies have not explored their sustainability. This paper investigates program sustainability of Stay on Your Feet (SOYF), an Australian multi-strategy falls prevention program (1992-1996) that achieved a significant reduction in falls-related hospital admissions. A series of surveys assessed recall, involvement and current falls prevention activities, 5 years post-SOYF in multiple original SOYF stakeholder groups within the study area [general practitioners (GPs), pharmacists, community health (CH) staff shire councils (SCs) and access committees (ACs)]. Focus groups explored possible behavioural changes in the target group. Surveys were mailed, except to CH staff and ACs. who participated in guided group sessions and were contacted via the telephone, respectively. Response rates were: GPs. 67% (139/209); pharmacists, 79% (53/67); CH staff, 63% (129/204); SCs, 90% (9/10); ACs, 80% (8/10). There were 73 older people in eight focus groups. Of 117 GPs who were practising during SOYF 80% recalled SOYF and 74% of these reported an influence on their practice. Of 46 pharmacists operating a business during SOYF, 45% had heard of SOYF and 79% of these reported being 'somewhat' influenced. Of 76 community health staff (59%) in the area at that time, 99% had heard of SOYF and 82% reported involvement. Four SCs retained a SOYF resource, but none thought current activities were related. Seven ACs reported involvement, but no activities were sustained. Thirty-five focus group participants (48%) remembered SOYF and reported a variety of SOYF-initiated behaviour changes. Program sustainability was clearly demonstrated among health practitioners. Further research is required to assess long-term effect sustainability.

Investment prioritization based on broadscale spatial budgeting to meet downstream targets for suspended sediment loads

On the basis of a spatially distributed sediment budget across a large basin, costs of achieving certain sediment reduction targets in rivers were estimated. A range of investment prioritization scenarios were tested to identify the most cost-effective strategy to control suspended sediment loads. The scenarios were based on successively introducing more information from the sediment budget. The relationship between spatial heterogeneity of contributing sediment sources on cost effectiveness of prioritization was investigated. Cost effectiveness was shown to increase with sequential introduction of sediment budget terms. The solution which most decreased cost was achieved by including spatial information linking sediment sources to the downstream target location. This solution produced cost curves similar to those derived using a genetic algorithm formulation. Appropriate investment prioritization can offer large cost savings because the magnitude of the costs can vary by several times depending on what type of erosion source or sediment delivery mechanism is targeted. Target settings which only consider the erosion source rates can potentially result in spending more money than random management intervention for achieving downstream targets. Coherent spatial patterns of contributing sediment emerge from the budget model and its many inputs. The heterogeneity in these patterns can be summarized in a succinct form. This summary was shown to be consistent with the cost difference between local and regional prioritization for three of four test catchments. To explain the effect for the fourth catchment, the detail of the individual sediment sources needed to be taken into account.

Synthesis and characterization of ternary hybrid material based on poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide) in mesostructured V(2)O(5)

New hybrid composites based on mesostructured V(2)O(5) containing intercalated poly(ethylene oxide), poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide)/poly-o-methoxyaniline were prepared. The results suggest that the polymers were intercalated into the layers of the mesostructured V(2)O(5). Electrochemical studies showed that the presence of both polymers in the mesostructured V(2)O(5) (ternary hybrid) leads to an increase in total charge and stability after several cycles compared with binary hybrid composites. This fact makes this material a potential component as cathode for lithium ion intercalation and further, a promising candidate for applications in batteries.

The use of electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry on the structural characterization of novel asymmetric metallo-organic supermolecules, based on pentafluorophenylporphyrins and ruthenium complexes

The novel asymmetric metallo-organic triads cis- and trans-[B(4-py)BPFPH(2){Ru(3)O(Ac)(6)(py)(2)}(Ru(bpy)(2)Cl}](PF(6))(2) (5a,b) for which cis- and trans-B(4-py)BPFPH(2)=5,10-bis(pentafluorophenyl)-15,20-bis(4-pyridyl)porphyrin and 5,15-bis(pentafluorophenyl)-10,20-bis(4-pyridyl)porphyrin, respectively; Ac = acetate; py = pyridine and bpy = 2,2`-bipyridine, as well as their corresponding monosubstituted dyads cis- and trans-[B(4-py)BPFPH(2){Ru(3)O(Ac)(6)(py)(2)}]PF(6) (4a,b) have been structurally characterized via electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS and ESI-MS/MS). The ESI-MS of dyads 4a,b display two characteristic Ru-multicomponent clusters of isotopologue ions corresponding to singly charged ions 4a,b(+) of m/z 1629 and doubly charged ions [4a,b+H](2+) of m/z 815 and the triads 5a,b are detected by ESI-MS as the intact doubly charged cluster of isotopologue ions of m/z 1039 [5a,b](2+). The ESI-MS/MS of 4a,b(+), [4a,b+H](2+) and [5a,b](2+) reveal characteristic dissociation pathways, which confirm the structural assignments providing additional information on the intrinsic binding strengths of the gaseous ions. Although the gas-phase behavior of each pair of isomers was rather similar, the less symmetric dyads 4a,b are distinguished via the (1)H NMR spectral profile of the pyrrolic signals. Exploratory photophysical assays have shown that both modifying motifs alter the porphyrinic core emission profile, opening the possibility to use these asymmetric systems as photophysical devices. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cerium-based phosphors: blue luminescent properties for applications in optical displays

In this paper, we describe the blue photoluminescence (PL) observed in the multi-component oxosalt phosphor GdVO(4)center dot Ce(3+). Different doping concentrations (0.25-1 mol%) and heat treatment (900-1100 degrees C) were used to evaluate which conditions would lead to the most suitable blue phosphor for optimal display performance. The cerium doping concentration influences the profile of the emission spectrum (broad peak at 412 nm under UV excitation at 330 nm), as reflected on the values of chromaticity coordinates. On the basis of luminescent properties, we can conclude that, among the phosphors prepared in this work the most adequate for a blue display is the one obtained via the combustion method using glycine as fuel, a 0.50 mol% cerium doping concentration, and heat treatment at 1000 degrees C.