Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Perceptions of a wearable ubiquitous monitoring device

A world of ubiquitous computing, full of networked mobile and embedded technologies, is approaching. The benefits of this technology are numerous, and act as the major driving force behind its development. These benefits are brought about, in part, by ubiquitous monitoring (UM): the continuous and wide spread collection of ?significant amounts of data about users

The significance of occupancy steadiness in residential consumer response to Time of Use pricing: Evidence from a stochastic adjustment model

The recent roll-out of smart metering technologies in several developed countries has intensified research on the impacts of Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing on consumption. This paper analyses a TOU dataset from the Province of Trento in Northern Italy using a stochastic adjustment model. Findings highlight the non-steadiness of the relationship between consumption and TOU price. Weather and active occupancy can partly explain future consumption in relation to price.

Monopolistic product line competition with ex post consumer heterogeneity

We model monopolistic competition in product lines, assuming that consumer heterogeneity is the result rather than the cause of product variety. Our results contradict some well-known policy implications yielded by the standard monopolistic competition framework.

The consumer acceptance of novel vegetable-enriched bread products as a potential vehicle to increase vegetable consumption

Currently UK fruit and vegetable intakes are below recommendations. Bread is a staple food consumed by ~95% of adults in western countries. In addition, bread provides an ideal matrix by which functionality can be delivered to the consumer in an accepted food. Therefore, enriching bread with vegetables may be an effective strategy to increase vegetable consumption. This study evaluated consumer acceptance, purchase intent and intention of product replacement of bread enriched with red beetroot, carrot with coriander, red pepper with tomato or white beetroot (80g vegetable per serving of 200g) compared to white control bread (0g vegetable). Consumers (n=120) rated their liking of the breads overall, as well as their liking of appearance, flavour and texture using nine-point hedonic scales. Product replacement and purchase intent of the breads was rated using five-point scales. The effect of providing consumers with health information about the breads was also evaluated. There were significant differences in overall liking (P<0.0001), as well as liking of appearance (P<0.0001), flavour (P=0.0002) and texture (P=0.04), between the breads. However, the significant differences resulted from the red beetroot bread which was significantly (P<0.05) less liked compared to control bread. There were no significant differences in overall liking between any of the other vegetable-enriched breads compared with the control bread (no vegetable inclusion), apart from the red beetroot bread which was significantly less liked. The provision of health information about the breads did not increase consumer liking of the vegetable-enriched breads. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that vegetable-enriched bread appeared to be an acceptable strategy to increase vegetable intake, however, liking depended on vegetable type.

Within-person analyses of situational interest and boredom: Interactions between task-specific perceptions and achievement goals

Despite the increasing number of studies examining the correlates of interest and boredom, surprisingly little research has focused on within-person fluctuations in these emotions, making it difficult to describe their situational nature. To address this gap in the literature, this study conducted repeated measurements (12 times) on a sample of 158 undergraduate students using a variety of self-report assessments, and examined the within-person relationships between task-specific perceptions (expectancy, utility, and difficulty) and interest and boredom. This study further explored the role of achievement goals in predicting between-person differences in these within-person relationships. Utilizing hierarchical-linear modeling, we found that, on average, a higher perception of both expectancy and utility, as well as a lower perception of difficulty, was associated with higher interest and lower boredom levels within individuals. Moreover, mastery-approach goals weakened the negative within-person relationship between difficulty and interest and the negative within-person relationship between utility and boredom. Mastery-avoidance and performance-avoidance goals strengthened the negative relationship between expectancy and boredom. These results suggest how educators can more effectively instruct students with different types of goals, minimizing boredom and maximizing interest and learning.

Enhanced three-factor security protocol for consumer USB mass storage devices

The Universal Serial Bus (USB) is an extremely popular interface standard for computer peripheral connections and is widely used in consumer Mass Storage Devices (MSDs). While current consumer USB MSDs provide relatively high transmission speed and are convenient to carry, the use of USB MSDs has been prohibited in many commercial and everyday environments primarily due to security concerns. Security protocols have been previously proposed and a recent approach for the USB MSDs is to utilize multi-factor authentication. This paper proposes significant enhancements to the three-factor control protocol that now makes it secure under many types of attacks including the password guessing attack, the denial-of-service attack, and the replay attack. The proposed solution is presented with a rigorous security analysis and practical computational cost analysis to demonstrate the usefulness of this new security protocol for consumer USB MSDs.

An enhanced fall detection system for elderly person monitoring using consumer home networks

Various fall-detection solutions have been previously proposed to create a reliable surveillance system for elderly people with high requirements on accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. In this paper, an enhanced fall detection system is proposed for elderly person monitoring that is based on smart sensors worn on the body and operating through consumer home networks. With treble thresholds, accidental falls can be detected in the home healthcare environment. By utilizing information gathered from an accelerometer, cardiotachometer and smart sensors, the impacts of falls can be logged and distinguished from normal daily activities. The proposed system has been deployed in a prototype system as detailed in this paper. From a test group of 30 healthy participants, it was found that the proposed fall detection system can achieve a high detection accuracy of 97.5%, while the sensitivity and specificity are 96.8% and 98.1% respectively. Therefore, this system can reliably be developed and deployed into a consumer product for use as an elderly person monitoring device with high accuracy and a low false positive rate.

Dairy fat: perceptions and realities.

Milk provides many key nutrients but the saturated and trans fatty acids in milk fat are associated with perceived negative effects on human health, especially cardiovascular disease. Recent epidemiological studies and dietary intervention trials challenge this perception, however; available evidence does not support the concept that consumption of saturated fats or dairy products adversely affects the risk of coronary heart disease (although replacing some saturated fats with mono or polyunsaturated fats is likely to provide benefit). Furthermore, the trans fats found in dairy products are consumed in very low amounts and do not appear to have the negative health effects associated with the consumption of industrial sources of trans fat. Milk fat is an excellent source of oleic acid that originates mainly by endogenous synthesis from stearic acid, but increasing the milk fat content of unsaturated fatty acids requires dietary formulations that bypass rumen biohydrogenation. Recent research indicates that long-chain omega-3 fatty acids and conjugated linoleic acids have potential beneficial effects in health maintenance and the prevention of chronic diseases. Enhancing the milk fat content of these fatty acids offers exciting possibilities, but educating consumers about inaccurate and inappropriate generalisations about fat remains the primary challenge. Finally, individuals do not simply consume milk-fat-derived fatty acids on their own, but rather as components in dairy foods which are highly complex and may contain many beneficial ingredients. Overall, dairy products are critical in providing many of the essential nutrients in the human diet. Nevertheless, dairy products vary in their nutrient composition, including fat, and this needs to be considered in the context of dietary recommendations and our need to consume a balanced diet.

Enhancing consumer liking of low salt tomato soup over repeated exposure by herb and spice seasonings

There is strong evidence for the link between high dietary sodium and increased risk of cardiovascular disease which drives the need to reduce salt content in foods. In this study, herb and spice blends were used to enhance consumer acceptability of a low salt tomato soup (0.26% w/w). Subjects (n=148) scored their liking of tomato soup samples over five consecutive days. The first and last days were pre-and post-exposure visits where all participants rated three tomato soup samples; standard, low salt and low salt with added herbs and spices. The middle 3 days were the repeated exposure phase where participants were divided into three balanced groups; consuming the standard soup, the low salt soup, or the low salt soup with added herbs and spices. Reducing salt in the tomato soup led to a significant decline in consumer acceptability, and incorporating herbs and spices did not lead to an immediate enhancement in liking. However, inclusion of herbs and spices enhanced the perception of the salty taste of the low salt soup to the same level as the standard. Repeated exposure to the herbs and spice-modified soup led to a significant increase in the overall liking and liking of flavour, texture and aftertaste of the soup, whereas no changes in liking were observed for the standard and low salt tomato soups over repeated exposure. Moreover, a positive trend in increasing the post-exposure liking of the herbs and spices soup was observed. The findings suggest that the use of herbs and spices is a useful approach to reduce salt content in foods; however, herbs and spices should be chosen carefully to complement the food as large contrasts in flavour can polarise consumer liking.

How do multilateral institutions influence individual perceptions of international affairs? Evidence from Europe and Asia

To date there has been no systematic study of the relationship between individuals’ opinions of different institutions and their perceptions of world affairs. This article tries to fill this gap by using a large cross-country data set comprising nine EU members and seven Asian nations and instrumental variable bivariate probit regression analysis. Controlling for a host of factors, the article shows that individuals’ confidence in multilateral institutions affects their perceptions of whether or not their country is being treated fairly in international affairs. This finding expands upon both theoretical work on multilateral institutions that has focused on state actors’ rationale for engaging in multilateral cooperation and empirical work that has treated confidence in multilateral institutions as a dependent variable. The article also shows that individuals’ confidence in different international organizations has undifferentiated effects on their perceptions of whether or not their country is being treated fairly in international affairs, though individuals more knowledgeable about international affairs exhibit slightly different attitudes. Finally, the article demonstrates significant differences in opinion across Europe and Asia.

It is always on your mind: experiences and perceptions of falling of older people and their carers and the potential of a mobile falls detection device

Background. Falls and fear of falling present a major risk to older people as both can affect their quality of life and independence. Mobile assistive technologies (AT) fall detection devices may maximise the potential for older people to live independently for as long as possible within their own homes by facilitating early detection of falls. Aims. To explore the experiences and perceptions of older people and their carers as to the potential of a mobile falls detection AT device. Methods. Nine focus groups with 47 participants including both older people with a range of health conditions and their carers. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analysed. Results. Four key themes were identified relating to participants’ experiences and perceptions of falling and the potential impact of a mobile falls detector: cause of falling, falling as everyday vulnerability, the environmental context of falling, and regaining confidence and independence by having a mobile falls detector. Conclusion. The perceived benefits of a mobile falls detector may differ between older people and their carers. The experience of falling has to be taken into account when designing mobile assistive technology devices as these may influence perceptions of such devices and how older people utilise them.

The power of perceptions: exploring the role of urban design in cycling behaviours and healthy ageing

Good urban design has the power to aid in the provision of inclusive journey environments, yet traditionally neglects the perspective of the cyclist. This paper starts from the premise that more can be done to understand and articulate cyclists’ experiences and perceptions of the urban environment in which they cycle, as part of a closer linking of urban design qualities with transport planning and infrastructure interventions. This approach is particularly applicable in relation to older cyclists, a group whose needs are often poorly understood and for whom perceptions can significantly influence mobile behaviours. Currently, knowledge regarding the relationship between the built environment and physical activity, including cycling, in older adults is limited. As European countries face up to the challenges associated with ageing populations, some metropolitan regions, such as Munich, Germany, are making inroads into widening cycling’s appeal across generations through a combination of urban design, policy and infrastructure initiatives. The paper provides a systematic understanding of the urban design qualities and built environment features that affect cycling participation and have the potential to contribute towards healthy ageing. Urban design features such as legibility, aesthetics, scale and open space have been shown to influence and affect other mobile behaviours (e.g. walking), but their role as a mediator in cycle behaviour remains under-explored. Many of these design ‘qualities’ are related to individual perceptions; capturing these can help build a picture of quality in the built environment that includes an individual’s relationship with their local neighbourhood and its influences on their mobility choices. Issues of accessibility, facilities, and safety in cycling remain crucial, and, when allied to these design ‘qualities‘, provides a more rounded reflection of everyday journeys and trips taken or desired. The paper sets out the role that urban design might play in mediating these critical mobility issues, and in particular, in better understanding the ‘quality of the journey’. It concludes by highlighting the need for designers, policy makers, planners and academics to consider the role that design can play in encouraging cycle participation, especially as part of a healthy ageing agenda.

The 'veil' of control: exploring the attitudes and perceptions of UK design controllers

In the UK, architectural design is regulated through a system of design control for the public interest, which aims to secure and promote ‘quality’ in the built environment. Design control is primarily implemented by locally employed planning professionals with political oversight, and independent design review panels, staffed predominantly by design professionals. Design control has a lengthy and complex history, with the concept of ‘design’ offering a range of challenges for a regulatory system of governance. A simultaneously creative and emotive discipline, architectural design is a difficult issue to regulate objectively or consistently, often leading to policy that is regarded highly discretionary and flexible. This makes regulatory outcomes difficult to predict, as approaches undertaken by the ‘agents of control’ can vary according to the individual. The role of the design controller is therefore central, tasked with the responsibility of interpreting design policy and guidance, appraising design quality and passing professional judgment. However, little is really known about what influences the way design controllers approach their task, providing a ‘veil’ over design control, shrouding the basis of their decisions. This research engaged directly with the attitudes and perceptions of design controllers in the UK, lifting this ‘veil’. Using in-depth interviews and Q-Methodology, the thesis explores this hidden element of control, revealing a number of key differences in how controllers approach and implement policy and guidance, conceptualise design quality, and rationalise their evaluations and judgments. The research develops a conceptual framework for agency in design control – this consists of six variables (Regulation; Discretion; Skills; Design Quality; Aesthetics; and Evaluation) and it is suggested that this could act as a ‘heuristic’ instrument for UK controllers, prompting more reflexivity in relation to evaluating their own position, approaches, and attitudes, leading to better practice and increased transparency of control decisions.