Productivity and the welfare of nations

We show that the welfare of a representative consumer can be related to observable aggregatedata. To a first order, the change in welfare is summarized by (the present value of) the Solowproductivity residual and by the growth rate of the capital stock per capita. We also show thatproductivity and the capital stock suffice to calculate differences in welfare across countries, withboth variables computed as log level deviations from a reference country. These results hold forarbitrary production technology, regardless of the degree of product market competition, and applyto open economies as well if TFP is constructed using absorption rather than GDP as the measureof output. They require that TFP be constructed using prices and quantities as perceived byconsumers. Thus, factor shares need to be calculated using after-tax wages and rental rates, andwill typically sum to less than one. We apply these results to calculate welfare gaps and growthrates in a sample of developed countries for which high-quality TFP and capital data are available.We find that under realistic scenarios the United Kingdom and Spain had the highest growth ratesof welfare over our sample period of 1985-2005, but the United States had the highest level ofwelfare.

Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentalsand asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomicvariables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of effective fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

Information revelation and market incompleteness

\documentstyle[portada,11pt]{article}This paper shows that the presence of private information in aneconomy can be a source of market incompleteness even when it is feasibleto issue a set of securities that completely eliminates the informationalasymmetries in equilibrium. We analyze a simple security design model in which avolume maximizing futures exchange chooses not only the characteristics ofeach individual contract but also the number of contracts. Agents have rationalexpectations and differ in information, endowments and, possibly, attitudestoward risk. The emergence of complete or incomplete markets in equilibriumdepends on whether the {\it adverse selection effect} is stronger or weakerthan the {\it Hirshleifer effect}, as new securitiesare issued and prices reveal more information. When the Hirshleifer effectdominates, the exchange chooses an incomplete set of financial contracts, andthe equilibrium price is partially revealing.

When to carry eccentric products? Optimal retail assortment under consumer returns

To understand whether retailers should consider consumer returns when merchandising, we study howthe optimal assortment of a price-taking retailer is influenced by its return policy. The retailer selects itsassortment from an exogenous set of horizontally differentiated products. Consumers make purchase andkeep/return decisions in nested multinomial logit fashion. Our main finding is that the optimal assortmenthas a counterintuitive structure for relatively strict return policies: It is optimal to offer a mix of the mostpopular and most eccentric products when the refund amount is sufficiently low, which can be viewed asa form of risk sharing between the retailer and consumers. In contrast, if the refund is sufficiently high, orwhen returns are disallowed, optimal assortment is composed of only the most popular products (a commonfinding in the literature). We provide preliminary empirical evidence for one of the key drivers of our results:more eccentric products have higher probability of return conditional on purchase. In light of our analyticalfindings and managerial insights, we conclude that retailers should take their return policies into accountwhen merchandising.

Market versus limit orders in an imperfectly competitive security

This paper analyzes the choice between limit and market orders in animperfectly competitive noisy rational expectations economy. There is a uniqueinsider, who takes into account the effect their trading has on prices. If theinsider behaves as a price taker, she will choose market orders if her privateinformation is very precise and she will choose limit orders otherwise. On thecontrary, if the insider recognizes and exploits her ability to affect themarket price, her optimal choice is to place limit orders whatever the precisionof her private information.

The impact of the reference price system on the pharmaceutical market: A theoretical approach

This article analyses the impact of the reference pricesystem on the price-setting strategies of thepharmaceutical firms and on the level of generic usage.This model is the first to take explicitly into accountthe impact of the reference price mechanism on the levelof competition between brand-name and generic drugs andnational pharmaceutical spending. We consider aduopolistic model with one firm producing the brand-namedrug, whose patent has already expired, and the otherproducing the corresponding generic version. We work ina partial equilibrium framework where firms set pricessequentially and consumers face heterogeneous switchingcosts.We show that brand producers compensate thedecline of profits by selling greater quantities insteadof charging higher prices, thus fostering pricecompetition in the pharmaceutical market. This result isa consequence of both the assumption of a verticallydifferentiated model and the introduction of thereference price system.

O Papel das Agências de Viagens e Turismo no Desenvolvimento do Turismo Emissor e Receptor

Devido a mudanças tecnológicas e da globalização, o turismo vem passando por grandes transformações, permitindo um maior acesso às informações e uma maior aproximação entre o consumidor e o mercado turístico. O papel das agências de viagens e turismo (AVT’s) é de fundamental importância para o desenvolvimento da actividade turística de um país. Face a isto, as AVT’s devem aderir ao novo cenário, procurando acompanhar a evolução, renovando e actualizando sempre os seus serviços. O presente estudo tem por objectivo avaliar o papel das AVT’s da ilha de São Vicente, no âmbito do turismo emissor e receptor. Foi realizado um estudo de caso, incluindo os doze representantes das AVT’s da ilha de S. Vicente, com excepção das empresas exclusivamente marítimas. Foi usado um guião de entrevistas para a obtenção de dados relacionados aos responsáveis dos serviços, a empresa, aos colaboradores internos, clientes, serviços oferecidos, sazonalidade e sua problemática, parceiros, as tecnologias de informação e as perspectivas futuras. As informações foram analisadas sob um enquadramento teórico e prático. Constatou-se que sete agências dedicam-se ao turismo emissor e receptor, três ao turismo emissor, e duas ao receptor. Foi possível observar que as AVT’s apresentam semelhanças na prestação de serviços e a maioria tem a preocupação de acompanhar as exigências actuais do turismo. Pode-se concluir que o turismo emissor e receptor estão bem representados pelas AVT’s de São Vicente. Technological changes and globalization has allowed big transformations in Tourism, greater access to information and a closer relationship between the consumer and tourist market. The role of the Travel and Tourism Agencies (TTA) has fundamental importance for the tourism development in a country, and they must adhere to the new environment, trying to follow the evolution, always renewing and updating their services. The present study aims to evaluate the role of TTA’s in São Vicente Island, in the field of inbound and outbound tourism. It was conducted a case study, including 12 representatives of TTA's in São Vicente, with exception of shipping companies. It was used a scripted interview to obtain data about the service delegate, the company, internal employees, customers, offered services, seasonality and its problems, partners, information technology and future prospects. Data were analyzed from a theoretical and practical view. It was found that seven agencies dedicated to inbound and outbound tourism, three to outbound and two to inbound. The TTA’s have similarities in service delivery and most have the concern to keep up with current demands of tourism. It can be concluded that inbound and outbound tourism are well represented by TTA’s in São Vicente.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Health Privacy Act Takes Effect April 14, April 2003

The Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division receives hundreds of calls and consumer complaints every year. Follow these tips to avoid unexpected expense and disappointments. This record is about: Health Privacy Act Takes Effect April 14