Climate and more sustainable cities: climate information for improved planning and management of cities (producers/capabilities perspective)

In the last two decades substantial advances have been made in the understanding of the scientific basis of urban climates. These are reviewed here with attention to sustainability of cities, applications that use climate information, and scientific understanding in relation to measurements and modelling. Consideration is given from street (micro) scale to neighbourhood (local) to city and region (meso) scale. Those areas where improvements are needed in the next decade to ensure more sustainable cities are identified. High-priority recommendations are made in the following six strategic areas: observations, data, understanding, modelling, tools and education. These include the need for more operational urban measurement stations and networks; for an international data archive to aid translation of research findings into design tools, along with guidelines for different climate zones and land uses; to develop methods to analyse atmospheric data measured above complex urban surfaces; to improve short-range, high-resolution numerical prediction of weather, air quality and chemical dispersion through improved modelling of the biogeophysical features of the urban land surface; to improve education about urban meteorology; and to encourage communication across scientific disciplines at a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Horizontal and vertical structure of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the UK: a comparison of airborne lidar observations and simulations

During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom.

Solutions of the fully compressible semi-geostrophic system

The fully compressible semi-geostrophic system is widely used in the modelling of large-scale atmospheric flows. In this paper, we prove rigorously the existence of weak Lagrangian solutions of this system, formulated in the original physical coordinates. In addition, we provide an alternative proof of the earlier result on the existence of weak solutions of this system expressed in the so-called geostrophic, or dual, coordinates. The proofs are based on the optimal transport formulation of the problem and on recent general results concerning transport problems posed in the Wasserstein space of probability measures.

Relaxation of surface tension in the liquid-solid interfaces of Lennard-Jones liquids

We have established the surface tension relaxation time in the liquid-solid interfaces of Lennard-Jones (LJ) liquids by means of direct measurements in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The main result is that the relaxation time is found to be almost independent of the molecular structures and viscosity of the liquids (at seventy-fold change) used in our study and lies in such a range that in slow hydrodynamic motion the interfaces are expected to be at equilibrium. The implications of our results for the modelling of dynamic wetting processes and interpretation of dynamic contact angle data are discussed.

Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream's source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (~1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (~6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

Control of final moisture content of food products baked in continuous tunnel ovens

There are well-known difficulties in making measurements of the moisture content of baked goods (such as bread, buns, biscuits, crackers and cake) during baking or at the oven exit; in this paper several sensing methods are discussed, but none of them are able to provide direct measurement with sufficient precision. An alternative is to use indirect inferential methods. Some of these methods involve dynamic modelling, with incorporation of thermal properties and using techniques familiar in computational fluid dynamics (CFD); a method of this class that has been used for the modelling of heat and mass transfer in one direction during baking is summarized, which may be extended to model transport of moisture within the product and also within the surrounding atmosphere. The concept of injecting heat during the baking process proportional to the calculated heat load on the oven has been implemented in a control scheme based on heat balance zone by zone through a continuous baking oven, taking advantage of the high latent heat of evaporation of water. Tests on biscuit production ovens are reported, with results that support a claim that the scheme gives more reproducible water distribution in the final product than conventional closed loop control of zone ambient temperatures, thus enabling water content to be held more closely within tolerance.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 3. Modelling

From the variation of near-Earth interplanetary conditions, reconstructed for the mid-19th century to the present day using historic geomagnetic activity observations, Lockwood and Owens [2014] have suggested that Earth remains within a broadened streamer belt during solar cycles when the Open Solar Flux (OSF) is low. From this they propose that the Earth was immersed in almost constant slow solar wind during the Maunder minimum (c. 1650-1710). In this paper, we extend continuity modelling of the OSF to predict the streamer belt width using both group sunspot numbers and corrected international sunspot numbers to quantify the emergence rate of new OSF. The results support the idea that the solar wind at Earth was persistently slow during the Maunder minimum because the streamer belt was broad.

The importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for the boundary density variations and the geostrophic component of the AMOC at 26°N

It is widely thought that changes in both the surface buoyancy fluxes and wind stress drive variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), but that they drive variability on different time scales. For example, wind forcing dominates short-term variability through its effects on Ekman currents and coastal upwelling, whereas buoyancy forcing is important for longer time scales (multiannual and decadal). However, the role of the wind forcing on multiannual to decadal time scales is less clear. Here the authors present an analysis of simulations with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with the aim of explaining the important drivers of the zonal density gradient at 26°N, which is directly related to the AMOC. In the experiments, only one of either the wind stress or the buoyancy forcing is allowed to vary in time, whereas the other remains at its seasonally varying climatology. On subannual time scales, variations in the density gradient, and in the AMOC minus Ekman, are driven largely by local wind-forced coastal upwelling at both the western and eastern boundaries. On decadal time scales, buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation dominates variability in the AMOC. Interestingly, however, it is found that wind forcing also plays a role at longer time scales, primarily impacting the interannual variability through the excitation of Rossby waves in the central Atlantic, which propagate westward to interact with the western boundary, but also by modulating the decadal time-scale response to buoyancy forcing.

Behaviour models clarify definitions of affordance and capability

There is ongoing work on conceptual modelling of such busi- ness notions as Affordance and Capability. We have found that such business notions as Affordance and Capability are constructively defned using elements and properties of exe- cutable behaviour models. In this paper, we clarify the def- initions of Affordance and Capability using Coloured Petri Nets and Protocol models.The illustrating case is the process of drug injection. We show that different behaviour modelling techniques provide different precision for definition of Affordance and Capability and clarify the conceptual models of these notions. We generalise that the behaviour models can be used to improve the precision of conceptualization.

Effects of noise and by-catch on a Danish harbour porpoise population

Ships and wind turbines generate noise, which can have a negative impact on marine mammal populations by scaring animals away. Effective modelling of how this affects the populations has to take account of the location and timing of disturbances. Here we construct an individual-based model of harbour porpoises in the Inner Danish Waters. Individuals have their own energy budgets constructed using established principles of physiological ecology. Data are lacking on the spatial distribution of food which is instead inferred from knowledge of time-varying porpoise distributions. The model produces plausible patterns of population dynamics and matches well the age distribution of porpoises caught in by-catch. It estimates the effect of existing wind farms as a 10% reduction in population size when food recovers fast (after two days). Proposed new wind farms and ships do not result in further population declines. The population is however sensitive to variations in mortality resulting from by-catch and to the speed at which food recovers after being depleted. If food recovers slowly the effect of wind turbines becomes negligible, whereas ships are estimated to have a significant negative impact on the population. Annual by-catch rates ≥10% lead to monotonously decreasing populations and to extinction, and even the estimated by-catch rate from the adjacent area (approximately 4.1%) has a strong impact on the population. This suggests that conservation efforts should be more focused on reducing by-catch in commercial gillnet fisheries than on limiting the amount of anthropogenic noise. Individual-based models are unique in their ability to take account of the location and timing of disturbances and to show their likely effects on populations. The models also identify deficiencies in the existing database and can be used to set priorities for future field research.

Friendly amendment: a commentary on Doyle and Ford's proposed re-definition of 'mental model'

Some amendments are proposed to a recent redefinition of the mental model concept in system dynamics. First, externalised, or articulated mental models should not be called cognitive maps; this term has a well established, alternative meaning. Second, there can be mental models of entities not yet existing beyond an individual's mind; the modelling of planned or desired systems is possible and recommended. Third, saying that mental models maintain social systems connects with some exciting research opportunities for system dynamics; however, it is probably an accidental distraction from the intended meaning of the redefinition. These minor criticisms apart, the new definition of mental model of a dynamic system is welcomed as a useful contribution to both research and practice.