Conditioning of incremental variational data assimilation, with application to the Met Office system

Implementations of incremental variational data assimilation require the iterative minimization of a series of linear least-squares cost functions. The accuracy and speed with which these linear minimization problems can be solved is determined by the condition number of the Hessian of the problem. In this study, we examine how different components of the assimilation system influence this condition number. Theoretical bounds on the condition number for a single parameter system are presented and used to predict how the condition number is affected by the observation distribution and accuracy and by the specified lengthscales in the background error covariance matrix. The theoretical results are verified in the Met Office variational data assimilation system, using both pseudo-observations and real data.

Conditioning and preconditioning of the variational data assimilation problem

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres use numerical models of the atmospheric flow to forecast future weather states from an estimate of the current state. Variational data assimilation (VAR) is used commonly to determine an optimal state estimate that miminizes the errors between observations of the dynamical system and model predictions of the flow. The rate of convergence of the VAR scheme and the sensitivity of the solution to errors in the data are dependent on the condition number of the Hessian of the variational least-squares objective function. The traditional formulation of VAR is ill-conditioned and hence leads to slow convergence and an inaccurate solution. In practice, operational NWP centres precondition the system via a control variable transform to reduce the condition number of the Hessian. In this paper we investigate the conditioning of VAR for a single, periodic, spatially-distributed state variable. We present theoretical bounds on the condition number of the original and preconditioned Hessians and hence demonstrate the improvement produced by the preconditioning. We also investigate theoretically the effect of observation position and error variance on the preconditioned system and show that the problem becomes more ill-conditioned with increasingly dense and accurate observations. Finally, we confirm the theoretical results in an operational setting by giving experimental results from the Met Office variational system.

Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion

Preference reversals are frequently observed in the lab, but almost all designs use completely transparent prospects, which are rarely features of decision making elsewhere. This raises questions of external validity. We test the robustness of the phenomenon to gambles that incorporate realistic ambiguity in both payoffs and probabilities. In addition, we test a recent explanation of preference reversals by loss aversion, which would also restrict the incidence of reversals outside the lab. According to this account, reversals occur largely because the valuation task endows subject with a gamble, activating loss aversion. This contrasts with the choice task, where the reference point is pre-experiment wealth. We test this explanation by holding the reference point constant. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.

Is there a place for property in the multi-asset portfolio?

The case for property has typically rested on the application of modern portfolio theory (MPT), in that property has been shown to offer increased diversification benefits within a multi asset portfolio without hurting portfolio returns especially for lower risk portfolios. However this view is based upon the use of historic, usually appraisal based, data for property. Recent research suggests strongly that such data significantly underestimates the risk characteristics of property, because appraisals explicitly or implicitly smooth out much of the real volatility in property returns. This paper examines the portfolio diversification effects of including property in a multi-asset portfolio, using UK appraisal based (smoothed) data and several derived de-smoothed series. Having considered the effects of de-smoothing, we then consider the inclusion of a further low risk asset (cash) in order to investigate further whether property's place in a low risk portfolio is maintained. The conclusions of this study are that the previous supposed benefits of including property have been overstated. Although property may still have a place in a 'balanced' institutional portfolio, the case for property needs to be reassessed and not be based simplistically on the application of MPT.

Incorporation of a S-glycosidic linkage into a glyconucleoside changes the conformational preference of both furanose sugars

A glyconucleoside containing a thioglycoside linkage, namely 1-(3-S-beta-D-ribofuranosyl-2,3-dideoxy-3-thio-beta-D-ribofuranosyl)-thy mine, has been prepared through condensation of a suitably protected derivative of 3'-thiothymidine with an activated ribose sugar. NMR has been used to study the conformation of the S-disaccharide and the unmodified O-disaccharide. A full pseudorotational analysis showed that for the S-disaccharide, the ribose and deoxy ribose sugars have a preference for the south and north pucker, respectively; which is the reverse of what is seen for the O-disaccharide. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A double-decker bus, an elephant and 300 Girl Guides: analyzing 'space' and 'place' in Blue Peter

This article draws upon Karen Lury's definitions of 'space' and 'place' in relation to the BBC children's programme Blue Peter (1958–present). Through an analysis of the Blue Peter studio over the past 53 years, Amanda Beauchamp highlights its evolution from a 'space' to a 'place' within the history of children's television. Her article considers how the Blue Peter studio's 'infinite nature' was achieved, alongside the role it played in creating the programme institution. She addresses the impact of major changes in the studio layout since 2005, when the studio went from being 'tardis-like' to a 'cosy cubbyhole'. Amanda concludes by questioning the impact that this change has had on programme identity and whether the 'place' that pre-2005 Blue Peter took 47 years to create has been compromised.

Place making in Hellenistic Athens: beyond decline and foreign patronage

The study of cities is integral to the study of the Hellenistic Age, the period bounded by the deaths of two legendary rulers: Alexander in 323 BC and Kleopatra in 30 BC. Modern scholarship has followed in the footsteps of Johann-Gustav Droysen, who coined the term 'Hellenistic' in the nineteenth century and associated it with the diffusion of Greek culture through the founding of new cities in the East by Alexander and his successors. Hellenistic Athens, traditionally discussed under the rubric of its Classical legacy and/or in contrast with thriving cities, such as Pergamon, has been presented as a backwater exemplifying the demise of the 'polis'. My objective in this paper is to criticise these negative sentiments by exploring how the built environment of Hellenistic Athens could potentially become an indicator of city vitality.

Analysis of Direct Outdoor Air Cooling Efficency for Combined Variable Air Volume Air-conditioning System in Stores in Cold Climates of China

Direct outdoor air cooling contributes a lot not only to the improvement of the indoor air quality but also to the energy saving. Its full use will reduce the water chiller’s running time especially in some stores where cooling load keeps much higher and longer than that in other buildings. A novel air-conditioning system named Combined Variable Air Volume system (CVAV), combining a normal AHU with a separate outdoor air supply system, was proposed firstly by the authors. The most attractive feature of the system is its full utilization of cooling capacity and freshness of outdoor air in the transition period of the year round. On the basis of the obtain of the dynamic cooling loads of the typical shopping malls in different four cities located in cold climates in China with the aid of DOE-2, the possibility of increasing the amount of outdoor air volume of CVAV system in the transition period instead of operating the water chillers was confirmed. Moreover, a new concept, Direct Outdoor Air Cooling Efficiency (DOACE), was defined as the ratio of cooling capacity of outdoor air to the water chiller, indicating the degree of outdoor air’s utilization. And the DOACE of the CVAV was calculated and compared with that of conventional all-air constant volume air-conditioning systems, the results showed that CVAV bear much more energy saving potential with the 10%~19% higher DOACE and it is a kind of energy efficient systems and can improve the indoor air quality as well.