Children’s reasoning about other’s intentions: False-belief and counterfactual conditional inferences

Dados suplementares associados com o artigo e epígrafe estão disponíveis em: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cogdev.2016.08.007

Fault detection with Conditional Gaussian Network

International audience

A logic-mathematical point of view of the truth: Reality, perception, and language

In this article, the authors propose a theory of the truth value of propositions from a logic-mathematical point of view. The work that the authors present is an attempt to address this question from an epistemological, linguistic, and logical-mathematical point of view. What is it to exist and how do we define existence? The main objective of this work is an approach to the first of these questions. We leave a more thorough treatment of the problem of existence for future works.

Explanation, Dialogue and Default Logic

La distinción entre argumentación y explicación es una tarea complicada pero necesaria por diversas razones. Una de ellas es la necesidad de incorporar la explicación en un movimiento del diálogo como resultado de una obligación dialéctica. Se propusieron distintos sistemas de diálogo que exploran la distinción enfatizando aspectos pragmáticos. En el presente trabajo me ocupo de aspectos estructurales de la explicación analizados en el marco de la lógica por defecto que permite caracterizar ciertas objeciones en el diálogo. Asimismo, considero que la versión operacional de la lógica por defecto constituye una aproximaciónadecuada en la construcción de la explicación y en la representación de la instancia de diálogo en el intercambio dialéctico

Explanation, Dialogue and Default Logic

La distinción entre argumentación y explicación es una tarea complicada pero necesaria por diversas razones. Una de ellas es la necesidad de incorporar la explicación en un movimiento del diálogo como resultado de una obligación dialéctica. Se propusieron distintos sistemas de diálogo que exploran la distinción enfatizando aspectos pragmáticos. En el presente trabajo me ocupo de aspectos estructurales de la explicación analizados en el marco de la lógica por defecto que permite caracterizar ciertas objeciones en el diálogo. Asimismo, considero que la versión operacional de la lógica por defecto constituye una aproximaciónadecuada en la construcción de la explicación y en la representación de la instancia de diálogo en el intercambio dialéctico

The conditional performance of euro bond funds: evidence from Portugal during the debt crisis

This paper evaluates the performance of a survivorship bias-free data set of Portuguese funds investing in Euro-denominated bonds by using conditional models that consider the public information available to investors when the returns are generated. We find that bond funds underperform the market significantly and by an economically relevant magnitude. This underperformance cannot be explained by the expenses they charge. Our findings support the use of conditional performance evaluation models, since we find strong evidence of both time-varying risk and performance, dependent on the slope of the term structure and the inverse relative wealth variables. We also show that survivorship bias has a significant impact on performance estimates. Furthermore, during the European debt crisis, bond fund managers performed significantly better than in non-crisis periods and were able to achieve neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the crisis seems to be related to changes in funds’ investment styles.

Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourabilitymodel based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation “A and not B”) were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning.

On the role of Computational Logic in Data Science: representing, learning, reasoning, and explaining knowledge

In this thesis we discuss in what ways computational logic (CL) and data science (DS) can jointly contribute to the management of knowledge within the scope of modern and future artificial intelligence (AI), and how technically-sound software technologies can be realised along the path. An agent-oriented mindset permeates the whole discussion, by stressing pivotal role of autonomous agents in exploiting both means to reach higher degrees of intelligence. Accordingly, the goals of this thesis are manifold. First, we elicit the analogies and differences among CL and DS, hence looking for possible synergies and complementarities along 4 major knowledge-related dimensions, namely representation, acquisition (a.k.a. learning), inference (a.k.a. reasoning), and explanation. In this regard, we propose a conceptual framework through which bridges these disciplines can be described and designed. We then survey the current state of the art of AI technologies, w.r.t. their capability to support bridging CL and DS in practice. After detecting lacks and opportunities, we propose the notion of logic ecosystem as the new conceptual, architectural, and technological solution supporting the incremental integration of symbolic and sub-symbolic AI. Finally, we discuss how our notion of logic ecosys- tem can be reified into actual software technology and extended towards many DS-related directions.

Aristotle’s modal syllogistic and first-order modal logic

In Prior Analytics 1.1–22, Aristotle develops his proof system of non-modal and modal propositions. This system is given in the language of propositions, and Aristotle is concerned with establishing some properties and relations that the expressions of this language enjoy. However, modern scholarship has found some of his results inconsistent with positions defended elsewhere. The set of rules of inference of this system has also caused perplexity: there does not seem to be a single interpretation that validates all the rules which Aristotle is explicitly committed to using in his proofs. Some commentators have argued that these and other problems cannot be successfully addressed from the viewpoint of the traditional, ‘first-order’ interpretation of Aristotle’s syllogistic, whereby propositions are taken to involve quantification over individuals only. Accordingly, this interpretation not only is inadequate for formal analysis, but also stems from a misunderstanding of Aristotle’s ideas about quantification. On the contrary, in this study I purport to vindicate the adequacy and plausibility of the first-order interpretation. Together with some assumptions about the language of propositions and an appropriate regimentation, the first-order interpretation yields promising solutions to many of the problems raised by the modal syllogistic. Thus, I present a reconstruction of the language of propositions and a formal interpretation thereof which will prove respectful and responsive to most of the views endorsed by Aristotle in the ‘modal’ chapters of the Analytics.

Joint value at risk: a new conditional risk measure

In this PhD thesis a new firm level conditional risk measure is developed. It is named Joint Value at Risk (JVaR) and is defined as a quantile of a conditional distribution of interest, where the conditioning event is a latent upper tail event. It addresses the problem of how risk changes under extreme volatility scenarios. The properties of JVaR are studied based on a stochastic volatility representation of the underlying process. We prove that JVaR is leverage consistent, i.e. it is an increasing function of the dependence parameter in the stochastic representation. A feasible class of nonparametric M-estimators is introduced by exploiting the elicitability of quantiles and the stochastic ordering theory. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the two stage M-estimator are derived, and a simulation study is reported to illustrate its finite-sample properties. Parametric estimation methods are also discussed. The relation with the VaR is exploited to introduce a volatility contribution measure, and a tail risk measure is also proposed. The analysis of the dynamic JVaR is presented based on asymmetric stochastic volatility models. Empirical results with S&P500 data show that accounting for extreme volatility levels is relevant to better characterize the evolution of risk. The work is complemented by a review of the literature, where we provide an overview on quantile risk measures, elicitable functionals and several stochastic orderings.

Conditional entropy and predictability for non-reversible Markov systems

The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the role of non-equilibrium stationary currents of Markov processes in the context of the predictability of future states of the system. Once the connection between the predictability and the conditional entropy is established, we provide a comprehensive approach to the definition of a multi-particle Markov system. In particular, starting from the well-known theory of random walk on network, we derive the non-linear master equation for an interacting multi-particle system under the one-step process hypothesis, highlighting the limits of its tractability and the prop- erties of its stationary solution. Lastly, in order to study the impact of the NESS on the predictability at short times, we analyze the conditional entropy by modulating the intensity of the stationary currents, both for a single-particle and a multi-particle Markov system. The results obtained analytically are numerically tested on a 5-node cycle network and put in correspondence with the stationary entropy production. Furthermore, because of the low dimensionality of the single-particle system, an analysis of its spectral properties as a function of the modulated stationary currents is performed.

[food Insecurity In Brazilian Families With Children Under Five Years Of Age].

This article analyzes food insecurity and hunger in Brazilian families with children under five years of age. This was a nationally representative cross-sectional study using data from the National Demographic and Health Survey on Women and Children (PNDS-2006), in which the outcome variable was moderate to severe food insecurity, measured by the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale (EBIA). Prevalence estimates and prevalence ratios were generated with 95% confidence intervals. The results showed a high prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity, concentrated in the North and Northeast regions (30.7%), in economic classes D and E (34%), and in beneficiaries of conditional cash transfer programs (36.5%). Multivariate analysis showed that the socioeconomic relative risks (beneficiaries of conditional cash transfers), regional relative risks (North and Northeast regions), and economic relative risks (classes D and E) were 1.8, 2.0 and 2.4, respectively. Aggregation of the three risks showed 48% of families with moderate to severe food insecurity, meaning that adults and children were going hungry during the three months preceding the survey.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Homogeneidade e heterogeneidade nos sistemas educacionais: Argentina, Brasil, Chile e México

This study focus on the reconfiguration of educational management in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, which was promoted by the new logic of social regulation and the new role attributed to the State, considering each country's own historicity. So, the cultural factors that interfere on the dynamics of the 90' school reform are analyzed. Aspects that show the homogeneity or heterogeneity of these reforms in the region, as well as local specificities that block out the concretization of the reform are underlined. It is shown that the historicity that characterizes the educational reform has taken, in each country, a form that can be called, in Mexico, conservative rupture; in Chile, conservative continuity; in Brazil, conservative renovation; and, in Argentina, interrupted rupture. Some conclusions about the impact of educational reform in the selected countries are recuperated through the analysis of 186 academic texts on the subject.