Improving a convection-permitting model simulation of a cold air outbreak

A convection-permitting local-area model was used to simulate a cold air outbreak crossing from the Norwegian Sea into the Atlantic Ocean near Scotland. A control model run based on an operational configuration of the Met Office UKV high-resolution (1.5 km grid spacing) NWP model was compared to satellite, aircraft and radar data. While the control model captured the large-scale features of the synoptic situation, it was not able to reproduce the shallow (<1.5 km) stratiform layer to the north of the open cellular convection. Liquid water paths were found to be too low in both the stratiform and convective cloud regions. Sensitivity analyses including a modified boundary-layer diagnosis to generate a more well-mixed boundary layer and inhibition of ice formation to lower temperatures improved cloud morphology and comparisons with observational data. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations

We investigate the scaling between precipitation and temperature changes in warm and cold climates using six models that have simulated the response to both increased CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) boundary conditions. Globally, precipitation increases in warm climates and decreases in cold climates by between 1.5%/°C and 3%/°C. Precipitation sensitivity to temperature changes is lower over the land than over the ocean and lower over the tropical land than over the extratropical land, reflecting the constraint of water availability. The wet tropics get wetter in warm climates and drier in cold climates, but the changes in dry areas differ among models. Seasonal changes of tropical precipitation in a warmer world also reflect this “rich get richer” syndrome. Precipitation seasonality is decreased in the cold-climate state. The simulated changes in precipitation per degree temperature change are comparable to the observed changes in both the historical period and the LGM.

Response to zinc deficiency of two rice lines with contrasting tolerance is determined by root growth maintenance and organic acid exudation rates, and not by zinc-transporter activity

Zinc (Zn)-deficient soils constrain rice (Oryza sativa) production and cause Zn malnutrition. The identification of Zn-deficiency-tolerant rice lines indicates that breeding might overcome these constraints. Here, we seek to identify processes underlying Zn-deficiency tolerance in rice at the physiological and transcriptional levels. A Zn-deficiency-tolerant line RIL46 acquires Zn more efficiently and produces more biomass than its nontolerant maternal line (IR74) at low Zn(ext) under field conditions. We tested if this was the result of increased expression of Zn(2+) transporters; increased root exudation of deoxymugineic acid (DMA) or low-molecular-weight organic acids (LMWOAs); and/or increased root production. Experiments were performed in field and controlled environment conditions. There was little genotypic variation in transcript abundance of Zn-responsive root Zn(2+)-transporters between the RIL46 and IR74. However, root exudation of DMA and LMWOA was greater in RIL46, coinciding with increased root expression of putative ligand-efflux genes. Adventitious root production was maintained in RIL46 at low Zn(ext), correlating with altered expression of root-specific auxin-responsive genes. Zinc-deficiency tolerance in RIL46 is most likely the result of maintenance of root growth, increased efflux of Zn ligands, and increased uptake of Zn-ligand complexes at low Zn(ext); these traits are potential breeding targets.

Effect of Rht alleles on the tolerance of wheat grain set to high temperature and drought stress during booting and anthesis

Factorial pot experiments were conducted to compare the responses of GA-sensitive and GA-insensitive reduced height (Rht) alleles in wheat for susceptibility to heat and drought stress during booting and anthesis. Grain set (grains/spikelet) of near isogenic lines (NILs) was assessed following three day transfers to controlled environments imposing day temperatures (t) from 20 to 40°C. Transfers were during booting and/or anthesis and pots maintained at field capacity (FC) or had water withheld. Logistic responses (y = c/1+e-b(t -m)) described declining grain set with increasing t, and t5 was that fitted to give a 5% reduction in grain set. Averaged over NIL, t5 for anthesis at FC was 31.7±0.47°C (S.E.M, 26 d.f.). Drought at anthesis reduced t5 by <2°C. Maintaining FC at booting conferred considerable resistance to high temperatures (t5=33.9°C) but booting was particularly heat susceptible without water (t5 =26.5°C). In one background (cv. Mercia), for NILs varying at the Rht-D1 locus, there was progressive reduction in t5 with dwarfing and reduced gibberellic acid (GA) sensitivity (Rht-D1a, tall, 32.7±0.72; Rht-D1b, semi-dwarf, 29.5±0.85; Rht-D1c, severe dwarf, 24.2±0.72). This trend was not evident for the Rht-B1 locus, or for Rht-D1b in an alternative background (Maris Widgeon). The GA-sensitive severe dwarf Rht12 was more heat tolerant (t5=29.4±0.72) than the similarly statured GA-insensitive Rht-D1c. The GA-sensitive, semi-dwarfing Rht8 conferred greater drought tolerance in one experiment. Despite the effects of Rht-D1 alleles in Mercia on stress tolerance, the inconsistency of the effects over background and locus led to the conclusion that semi-dwarfing with GA-insensitivity did not necessarily increase sensitivity to stress at booting and flowering. In comparison to effects of semi-dwarfing alleles, responses to heat stress are much more dramatically affected by water availability and the precise growth stage at which the stress is experienced by the plants.

Hot and cold IPO markets : the case of the stock exchange of Mauritius

The aim of this study is to assess the characteristics of the hot and cold IPO markets on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). The results show that the hot issues exhibit, on average, a greater degree of underpricing than the cold issues, although the hot issue phenomenon is not a significant driving force in explaining this short-run underpricing. The results are consistent with the predictions of the changing risk composition hypothesis in suggesting that firms going public during hot markets are on average relatively more risky. The findings also support the time adverse selection hypothesis in that the firms’ quality dispersion is statistically different between hot and cold markets. Finally, the study concludes that firms which go public during hot markets do not underperform those going public in cold markets over the longer term.

Distinguishing the cold conveyor belt and sting jet air streams in an intense extratropical cyclone

Strong winds equatorwards and rearwards of a cyclone core have often been associated with two phenomena, the cold conveyor belt (CCB) jet and sting jets. Here, detailed observations of the mesoscale structure in this region of an intense cyclone are analysed. The {\it in-situ} and dropsonde observations were obtained during two research flights through the cyclone during the DIAMET (DIAbatic influences on Mesoscale structures in ExTratropical storms) field campaign. A numerical weather prediction model is used to link the strong wind regions with three types of ``air streams'', or coherent ensembles of trajectories: two types are identified with the CCB, hooking around the cyclone center, while the third is identified with a sting jet, descending from the cloud head to the west of the cyclone. Chemical tracer observations show for the first time that the CCB and sting jet air streams are distinct air masses even when the associated low-level wind maxima are not spatially distinct. In the model, the CCB experiences slow latent heating through weak resolved ascent and convection, while the sting jet experiences weak cooling associated with microphysics during its subsaturated descent. Diagnosis of mesoscale instabilities in the model shows that the CCB passes through largely stable regions, while the sting jet spends relatively long periods in locations characterized by conditional symmetric instability (CSI). The relation of CSI to the observed mesoscale structure of the bent-back front and its possible role in the cloud banding is discussed.

Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models

Amplified Arctic warming is expected to have a significant longterm influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation by the latter half of the 21st century. Potential influences of recent and near future Arctic changes on shorter timescales are much less clear, despite having received much recent attention in the literature. In this letter, climate models from the recent CMIP5 experiment are analysed for evidence of an influence of Arctic temperatures on midlatitude blocking and cold European winters in particular. The focus is on the variability of these features in detrended data and, in contrast to other studies, limited evidence of an influence is found. The occurrence of cold European winters is found to be largely independent of the temperature variability in the key Barents–Kara Sea region. Positive correlations of the Barents–Kara temperatures with Eurasian blocking are found in some models, but significant correlations are limited.

A low glycaemic load breakfast can attenuate cognitive impairments observed in middle aged obese females with impaired glucose tolerance.

Increased central adiposity and abnormalities in glucose tolerance preceding type 2 diabetes can have demonstrable negative effects on cognitive function, even in ostensibly healthy, middle-aged females. The potential for GL manipulations to modulate glycaemic response and cognitive function in type 2 diabetes and obesity merits further investigation..

Type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance are associated with word memory source monitoring recollection deficits but not simple recognition familiarity deficits following water, low glycaemic load, and high glycaemic load breakfasts.

Isolated source monitoring recollection deficits indicate that abnormalities in glucose metabolism are not detrimental for global episodic memory processes. This enhances our understanding of how metabolic disorders are associated with memory impairments.

Impairments in glucose tolerance can have a negative impact on cognitive function: a systematic research review

There is an increasing body of research investigating whether abnormal glucose tolerance is associated with cognitive impairments, the evidence from which is equivocal. A systematic search of the literature identified twenty-three studies which assessed either clinically defined impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or variance in glucose tolerance within the clinically defined normal range (NGT). The findings suggest that poor glucose tolerance is associated with cognitive impairments, with decrements in verbal memory being most prevalent. However, the evidence for decrements in other domains was weak. The NGT studies report a stronger glucose tolerance-cognition association than the IGT studies, which is likely to be due to the greater number of glucose tolerance parameters and the more sensitive cognitive tests in the NGT studies compared to the IGT studies. It is also speculated that the negative cognitive impact of abnormalities in glucose tolerance increases with age, and that glucose consumption is most beneficial to individuals with poor glucose tolerance compared to individuals with normal glucose tolerance. The role of potential mechanisms are discussed.

Pre-conditioning the epigenetic response to high vapor pressure deficit increases the drought tolerance of Arabidopsis thaliana

Epigenetic modification of the genome via cytosine methylation is a dynamic process that responds to changes in the growing environment. This modification can also be heritable. The combination of both properties means that there is the potential for the life experiences of the parental generation to modify the methylation profiles of their offspring and so potentially to ‘pre-condition’ them to better accommodate abiotic conditions encountered by their parents. We recently identified high vapor pressure deficit (vpd)-induced DNA methylation at two gene loci in the stomatal development pathway and an associated reduction in leaf stomatal frequency.1 Here, we test whether this epigenetic modification pre-conditioned parents and their offspring to the more severe water stress of periodic drought. We found that three generations of high vpd-grown plants were better able to withstand periodic drought stress over two generations. This resistance was not directly associated with de novo methylation of the target stomata genes, but was associated with the cmt3 mutant’s inability to maintain asymmetric sequence context methylation. If our finding applies widely, it could have significant implications for evolutionary biology and breeding for stressful environments.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.