The sequential analysis of repeated binary responses: a score test for the case of three time points

In this paper a robust method is developed for the analysis of data consisting of repeated binary observations taken at up to three fixed time points on each subject. The primary objective is to compare outcomes at the last time point, using earlier observations to predict this for subjects with incomplete records. A score test is derived. The method is developed for application to sequential clinical trials, as at interim analyses there will be many incomplete records occurring in non-informative patterns. Motivation for the methodology comes from experience with clinical trials in stroke and head injury, and data from one such trial is used to illustrate the approach. Extensions to more than three time points and to allow for stratification are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical methods for ordered categorical data based on a constrained odds model

The proportional odds model provides a powerful tool for analysing ordered categorical data and setting sample size, although for many clinical trials its validity is questionable. The purpose of this paper is to present a new class of constrained odds models which includes the proportional odds model. The efficient score and Fisher's information are derived from the profile likelihood for the constrained odds model. These results are new even for the special case of proportional odds where the resulting statistics define the Mann-Whitney test. A strategy is described involving selecting one of these models in advance, requiring assumptions as strong as those underlying proportional odds, but allowing a choice of such models. The accuracy of the new procedure and its power are evaluated.

Sequentially testing for a gene-drug interaction in a genomewide analysis

Assaying a large number of genetic markers from patients in clinical trials is now possible in order to tailor drugs with respect to efficacy. The statistical methodology for analysing such massive data sets is challenging. The most popular type of statistical analysis is to use a univariate test for each genetic marker, once all the data from a clinical study have been collected. This paper presents a sequential method for conducting an omnibus test for detecting gene-drug interactions across the genome, thus allowing informed decisions at the earliest opportunity and overcoming the multiple testing problems from conducting many univariate tests. We first propose an omnibus test for a fixed sample size. This test is based on combining F-statistics that test for an interaction between treatment and the individual single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). As SNPs tend to be correlated, we use permutations to calculate a global p-value. We extend our omnibus test to the sequential case. In order to control the type I error rate, we propose a sequential method that uses permutations to obtain the stopping boundaries. The results of a simulation study show that the sequential permutation method is more powerful than alternative sequential methods that control the type I error rate, such as the inverse-normal method. The proposed method is flexible as we do not need to assume a mode of inheritance and can also adjust for confounding factors. An application to real clinical data illustrates that the method is computationally feasible for a large number of SNPs. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimation following selection of the largest of two normal means

This paper considers the problem of estimation when one of a number of populations, assumed normal with known common variance, is selected on the basis of it having the largest observed mean. Conditional on selection of the population, the observed mean is a biased estimate of the true mean. This problem arises in the analysis of clinical trials in which selection is made between a number of experimental treatments that are compared with each other either with or without an additional control treatment. Attempts to obtain approximately unbiased estimates in this setting have been proposed by Shen [2001. An improved method of evaluating drug effect in a multiple dose clinical trial. Statist. Medicine 20, 1913–1929] and Stallard and Todd [2005. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 135, 402–419]. This paper explores the problem in the simple setting in which two experimental treatments are compared in a single analysis. It is shown that in this case the estimate of Stallard and Todd is the maximum-likelihood estimate (m.l.e.), and this is compared with the estimate proposed by Shen. In particular, it is shown that the m.l.e. has infinite expectation whatever the true value of the mean being estimated. We show that there is no conditionally unbiased estimator, and propose a new family of approximately conditionally unbiased estimators, comparing these with the estimators suggested by Shen.

Implementation of a Bayesian design in a dose-escalation study of an experimental agent in healthy volunteers

Bayesian decision procedures have recently been developed for dose escalation in phase I clinical trials concerning pharmacokinetic responses observed in healthy volunteers. This article describes how that general methodology was extended and evaluated for implementation in a specific phase I trial of a novel compound. At the time of writing, the study is ongoing, and it will be some time before the sponsor will wish to put the results into the public domain. This article is an account of how the study was designed in a way that should prove to be safe, accurate, and efficient whatever the true nature of the compound. The study involves the observation of two pharmacokinetic endpoints relating to the plasma concentration of the compound itself and of a metabolite as well as a safety endpoint relating to the occurrence of adverse events. Construction of the design and its evaluation via simulation are presented.

Strategies to prevent falls and fractures in hospitals and care homes and effect of cognitive impairment: systematic review and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the evidence for strategies to prevent falls or fractures in residents in care homes and hospital inpatients and to investigate the effect of dementia and cognitive impairment. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analyses of studies grouped by intervention and setting (hospital or care home). Meta-regression to investigate the effects of dementia and of study quality and design. DATA SOURCES: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychInfo, Cochrane Database, Clinical Trials Register, and hand searching of references from reviews and guidelines to January 2005. RESULTS: 1207 references were identified, including 115 systematic reviews, expert reviews, or guidelines. Of the 92 full papers inspected, 43 were included. Meta-analysis for multifaceted interventions in hospital (13 studies) showed a rate ratio of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.997) for falls but no significant effect on the number of fallers or fractures. For hip protectors in care homes (11 studies) the rate ratio for hip fractures was 0.67 (0.46 to 0.98), but there was no significant effect on falls and not enough studies on fallers. For all other interventions (multifaceted interventions in care homes; removal of physical restraints in either setting; fall alarm devices in either setting; exercise in care homes; calcium/vitamin D in care homes; changes in the physical environment in either setting; medication review in hospital) meta-analysis was either unsuitable because of insufficient studies or showed no significant effect on falls, fallers, or fractures, despite strongly positive results in some individual studies. Meta-regression showed no significant association between effect size and prevalence of dementia or cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence that multifaceted interventions in hospital reduce the number of falls and that use of hip protectors in care homes prevents hip fractures. There is insufficient evidence, however, for the effectiveness of other single interventions in hospitals or care homes or multifaceted interventions in care homes.

Herbal medicine: the science of the art

In the last 50 years science has provided new perspectives on the ancient art of herbal medicine. The present article discusses ways in which the evidence base for the professional use of 'Western' herbal medicine, as therapy to treat disease, known as phytotherapy, can be strengthened and developed. The evidence base for phytotherapy is small and lags behind that for the nutritional sciences, mainly because phytochemicals are ingested as complex mixtures that are incompletely characterised and have only relatively recently been subject to scientific scrutiny. While some methodologies developed for the nutritional sciences can inform phytotherapy research, opportunities for observational studies are more limited, although greater use could be made of patient case notes. Randomised clinical trials of single-herb interventions are relatively easy to undertake and increasing numbers of such studies are being published. Indeed, enough data are available on three herbs (ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba), St John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and saw palmetto (Serenoa repens)) for meta-analyses to have been undertaken. However, phytotherapy is holistic therapy, using lifestyle advice, nutrition and individually-prescribed mixtures of herbs aimed at reinstating homeostasis. While clinical experience shows that this approach is applicable to a wide range of conditions, including chronic disease, evidence of its efficacy is scarce. Strategies for investigating the full holistic approach of phytotherapy and its main elements are discussed and illustrated through the author's studies at the University of Reading.

Adverse gastrointestinal effects of arginine and related amino acids

Oral supplements of arginine and citrulline increase local nitric oxide (NO production in the small intestine and this may be harmful under certain circumstances. Gastrointestinal toxicity was therefore reviewed with respect to the intestinal physiology of arginine, citrulline, ornithine, and cystine (which shares the same transporter) and the many clinical trials of supplements of the dibasic amino acids or N-acetylcysteine (NAC. The human intestinal dibasic amino acid transport system has high affinity and low capacity. L-Arginine (but not lysine, ornithine, or D-arginine) induces water and electrolyte secretion that is mediated by NO, which acts as an absorbagogue at low levels and as a secretagogue at high levels. The action of many laxatives is NO mediated and there are reports of diarrhea following oral administration of arginine or ornithine ihine. The clinical data cover a wide span of arginine intakes f rom 3 g/d to > 100 g/d, but the standard of reporting adverse effects (e.g. nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea) was variable. Single doses of 3-6 g rarely provoked side effects and healthy athletes appeared to be more susceptible than diabetic patients to gastrointestinal symptoms at individual doses >9 g. This may relate to an effect of disease on gastrointestinal motility and pharmacokinetics. Most side effects of arginine and NAC occurred at single doses of >9 g in adults >140 mg/kg) often when part of a daily regime of similar to>30 g/d (>174 mmol/d). In the case of arginine, this compares with the laxative threshold of the nonabsorbed disaccharide alcohol, lactitol (74 g or 194 mmol). Adverse effects seemed dependent on the dosage regime and disappeared if divided doses were ingested (unlike lactitol). Large single doses of poorly absorbed amino acids seem to provoke diarrhea. More research is needed to refine dosage strategies that reduce this phenomenon. It is suggested that dipeptide forms of arginine may meet this criterion.

Are herbal remedies and dietary supplements safe and effective for breast cancer patients?

There remains limited scientific evidence on the efficacy and safety of 'natural' therapies such as herbal remedies and dietary supplements. Nevertheless, breast cancer patients are particularly prone to purchasing such products because of the perception that 'natural' products are less toxic than conventional prescribed medicines. However, the potential for interactions of supplements with current medications, the potential for adverse effects from consumption at high levels, and the lack of disclosure of such treatments by the patient to their doctor are serious public health issues. Robust clinical trials are required to prove the efficacy and lack of adverse effects of such preparations, and communication between patients and doctors must be improved and doctors made more aware that their patients may be seeking advice and treatment from sources outside conventional medicine.

Investigating the mechanism of enhanced cytotoxicity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM in breast cancer cells

Recently we have described an HPMA copolymer conjugate carrying both the aromatase inhibitor aminoglutethimide (AGM) and doxorubicin (Dox) as combination therapy. This showed markedly enhanced in vitro cytotoxicity compared to the HPMA copolymer-Dox (FCE28068), a conjugate that demonstrated activity in chemotherapy refractory breast cancer patients during early clinical trials. To better understand the superior activity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM, here experiments were undertaken using MCF-7 and MCF-7ca (aromatase-transfected) breast cancer cell lines to: further probe the synergistic cytotoxic effects of AGM and Dox in free and conjugated form; to compare the endocytic properties of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM and HPMA copolymer-Dox (binding, rate and mechanism of cellular uptake); the rate of drug liberation by lysosomal thiol-dependant proteases (i.e. conjugate activation), and also, using immunocytochemistry, to compare their molecular mechanism of action. It was clearly shown that attachment of both drugs to the same polymer backbone was a requirement for enhanced cytotoxicity. FACS studies indicated both conjugates have a similar pattern of cell binding and endocytic uptake (at least partially via a cholesterol-dependent pathway), however, the pattern of enzyme-mediated drug liberation was distinctly different. Dox release from PK1 was linear with time, whereas the release of both Dox and AGM from HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM was not, and the initial rate of AGM release was much faster than that seen for the anthracycline. Immunocytochemistry showed that both conjugates decreased the expression of ki67. However, this effect was more marked for HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM and, moreover, only this conjugate decreased the expression of the anti-apoptotic protein bcl-2. In conclusion, the superior in vitro activity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM cannot be attributed to differences in endocytic uptake, and it seems likely that the synergistic effect of Dox and AGM is due to the kinetics of intracellular drug liberation which leads to enhanced activity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Polymer-drug conjugates: current status and future trends

Polymer conjugates are nano-sized, multicomponent constructs already in the clinic as anticancer compounds, both as single agents or as elements of combinations. They have the potential to improve pharmacological therapy of a variety of solid tumors. Polymer-drug conjugation promotes passive tumor targeting by the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect and allows for lysosomotropic drug delivery following endocytic capture. In the first part of this review, we analyze the promising results arising from clinical trials of polymer-bound chemotherapy. The experience gained on these studies provides the basis for the development of a more sophisticated second-generation of polymer conjugates. However, many challenges still lay ahead providing scope to develop and refine this field. The "technology platform'' of polymer therapeutics allows the development of both new and exciting polymeric materials, the incorporation of novel bioactive agents and combinations thereof to address recent advances in drug therapy. The rational design of polymer drug conjugates is expected to realize the true potential of these "nanomedicines".

Multivariate analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of GENTLE/S robot-mediated stroke therapy

Background: Robot-mediated therapies offer entirely new approaches to neurorehabilitation. In this paper we present the results obtained from trialling the GENTLE/S neurorehabilitation system assessed using the upper limb section of the Fugl-Meyer ( FM) outcome measure. Methods: We demonstrate the design of our clinical trial and its results analysed using a novel statistical approach based on a multivariate analytical model. This paper provides the rational for using multivariate models in robot-mediated clinical trials and draws conclusions from the clinical data gathered during the GENTLE/S study. Results: The FM outcome measures recorded during the baseline ( 8 sessions), robot-mediated therapy ( 9 sessions) and sling-suspension ( 9 sessions) was analysed using a multiple regression model. The results indicate positive but modest recovery trends favouring both interventions used in GENTLE/S clinical trial. The modest recovery shown occurred at a time late after stroke when changes are not clinically anticipated. Conclusion: This study has applied a new method for analysing clinical data obtained from rehabilitation robotics studies. While the data obtained during the clinical trial is of multivariate nature, having multipoint and progressive nature, the multiple regression model used showed great potential for drawing conclusions from this study. An important conclusion to draw from this paper is that this study has shown that the intervention and control phase both caused changes over a period of 9 sessions in comparison to the baseline. This might indicate that use of new challenging and motivational therapies can influence the outcome of therapies at a point when clinical changes are not expected. Further work is required to investigate the effects arising from early intervention, longer exposure and intensity of the therapies. Finally, more function-oriented robot-mediated therapies or sling-suspension therapies are needed to clarify the effects resulting from each intervention for stroke recovery.

A Gentle/S approach to robot assisted neuro-rehabilitation

Movement disorders (MD) include a group of neurological disorders that involve neuromotor systems. MD can result in several abnormalities ranging from an inability to move, to severe constant and excessive movements. Strokes are a leading cause of disability affecting largely the older people worldwide. Traditional treatments rely on the use of physiotherapy that is partially based on theories and also heavily reliant on the therapists training and past experience. The lack of evidence to prove that one treatment is more effective than any other makes the rehabilitation of stroke patients a difficult task. UL motor re-learning and recovery levels tend to improve with intensive physiotherapy delivery. The need for conclusive evidence supporting one method over the other and the need to stimulate the stroke patient clearly suggest that traditional methods lack high motivational content, as well as objective standardised analytical methods for evaluating a patient's performance and assessment of therapy effectiveness. Despite all the advances in machine mediated therapies, there is still a need to improve therapy tools. This chapter describes a new approach to robot assisted neuro-rehabilitation for upper limb rehabilitation. Gentle/S introduces a new approach on the integration of appropriate haptic technologies to high quality virtual environments, so as to deliver challenging and meaningful therapies to people with upper limb impairment in consequence of a stroke. The described approach can enhance traditional therapy tools, provide therapy "on demand" and can present accurate objective measurements of a patient's progression. Our recent studies suggest the use of tele-presence and VR-based systems can potentially motivate patients to exercise for longer periods of time. Two identical prototypes have undergone extended clinical trials in the UK and Ireland with a cohort of 30 stroke subjects. From the lessons learnt with the Gentle/S approach, it is clear also that high quality therapy devices of this nature have a role in future delivery of stroke rehabilitation, and machine mediated therapies should be available to patient and his/her clinical team from initial hospital admission, through to long term placement in the patient's home following hospital discharge.

Technology evaluation: Colostrinin (ReGen)

ReGen Therapeutics is developing Colostrinin, a polypeptide complex derived from ovine colostrums, for the potential treatment of Alzheimer's disease. The compound is currently undergoing phase II clinical trials.