Challenges in integrative approaches to modelling the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic: Physics to fish and coasts to ocean

It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

Effects of increases in temperature and nutrients on phytoplankton community structure and photosynthesis in the Western English Channel

Anthropogenic climate change is exerting pressures on coastal ecosystems through increases in temperature, precipitation and ocean acidification. Phytoplankton community structure and photo-physiology are therefore adapting to these conditions. Changes in phytoplankton biomass and photosynthesis in relation to temperature and nutrient concentrations were assessed using a 14 year dataset from a coastal station in the Western English Channel (WEC). Dinoflagellate and coccolithophorid biomass exhibited a positive correlation with temperature, reaching the highest biomass at between 15 and 17°C. Diatoms showed a negative correlation with temperature, with highest biomass at 10°C. Chlorophyll a (chl a) normalised light-saturated photosynthetic rates (PBm) exhibited a hyperbolic response to increasing temperature, with an initial linear increase from 8 to 11°C, and reaching a plateau from 12°C. There was however no significant positive correlation between nutrients and phytoplankton biomass or PBm, which reflects the lag time between nutrient input and phytoplankton growth at this coastal site. The major phytoplankton groups that occurred at this site occupied distinct thermal niches, which in turn modified PBm. Increasing temperature, and higher water column stratification, was major factors in the initiation of dinoflagellates blooms at this site. Dinoflagellates blooms during summer also co-varied with silicate concentration, and acted as a tracer of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate from river run-off, which were subsequently reduced during these blooms. The data implies that increasing temperature and high river runoff during summer, will promote dinoflaglellates blooms in the WEC.